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Colombia government weakened by ‘truce’ mishap: analysts

Photo: AFP

January 6th | By AFP |

In announcing a “bilateral” ceasefire before it existed, Colombian President Gustavo Petro may have weakened his government in ongoing peace talks with armed groups, experts say.

Petro’s New Year’s Eve declaration was hailed by the United Nations and others as a step towards the “total peace” Colombia’s first-ever leftist president has vowed to bring to the country.

But the ELN guerrilla group poured cold water all over Petro’s declaration just three days later, denying the group had entered into any such deal, and the government conceded that nothing was signed.

Whether a calculated ploy to pile pressure on the ELN or mere miscommunication, Petro’s move was a “mistake” that harmed “the legitimacy of the peace negotiations,” conflict expert Laura Barrios of Rosario University told AFP.

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“The biggest challenge here will be how the government will regain the trust of the ELN,” she said.

For analyst Felipe Botero of the University of The Andes in Bogota, the events “revealed inexperience and political clumsiness.”

It was a “setback for the government,” said Botero, but would not necessarily compromise the talks themselves.

‘Renewed hope’

On December 31, Petro announced that a ceasefire had been agreed with the country’s five largest armed groups, including the National Liberation Army (ELN), from January 1 to June 30.

The government subsequently said the ceasefire would be monitored by the United Nations, Colombia’s human rights ombudsman and the Catholic Church.

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UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the supposed deal brought “renewed hope for comprehensive peace to the Colombian people as the New Year dawns.”

But then on Tuesday, the ELN said it had “not discussed any bilateral ceasefire with the Gustavo Petro government, therefore no such agreement exists.”

The group added that “a unilateral government decree cannot be accepted as an agreement.”

This prompted the government to concede Tuesday that a proposed ceasefire decree had not been signed, and the following day to announce a suspension of a truce that never existed in the first place.

Petro, an active social media user, has been quiet in recent days.

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‘More expensive’

Both the government and ELN have said the question of a ceasefire will be raised again in Mexico when talks resume later this month.

Negotiations between the government and the ELN, the country’s last recognized rebel group, have been underway since November.

A first round of peace talks since Petro came to power in August concluded in Caracas, Venezuela on December 12 without a truce being agreed.

The ELN has already accused Petro of acting just like former “traditional governments” with which previous attempts at peace negotiations had failed.

Political commentator Andres Mejia Vergnaud said a ceasefire agreement has just become “more expensive.”

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“The government needs it a lot more, and the other side will get more in return,” he said.

Petro’s announcement had also included two dissident splinter factions of the disbanded FARC guerrilla group, the Gulf Clan narcotics outfit and the Self-Defense Forces of the Sierra Nevada, a right-wing paramilitary group.

The ELN, which has an estimated 3,500 members, is the only group to have refuted the existence of a truce, though the others will be watching closely what happens next.

“We can imagine a scenario in which these actors say ‘look at what they’ve done with the ELN, we’d better take a break,’” in negotiations, said Barrios.

‘Lies’

Colombia’s right-wing opposition, still reeling from electoral defeat last year, has meanwhile jumped on Petro’s apparent misstep.

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Petro’s “lies put Colombians in danger,” charged Senator Miguel Uribe of the Democratic Center party.

For his part, defeated conservative presidential candidate Federico “Fico” Gutierrez said Petro’s announcement of something that was “not true” was a blow for security in a country in the grip of decades of violence.

“The most serious aspect of this is that the government has manacled the security forces and the civilian population is defenseless,” tweeted Gutierrez. “This is delivering the country to criminal groups.”

For Leon Valencia, director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation think tank, the apparent blunder has given the opposition a “huge” opening for hammering the executive.

“The opposition can say with reason that ‘these people are very disorganized, they are not on the same page,’ and that harms the image of the government,” he said.

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Authorities estimate that the final 20 bodies will be recovered from the rubble today, bringing the official death toll to 136. This includes 12 additional bodies found overnight in the disaster zone, adding to the previously confirmed 124 fatalities.

Outside the collapsed nightclub, desperate relatives of the missing continue to gather, clinging to hope for news. Many also visited nearby hospitals and morgues in search of their loved ones.

A list of confirmed victims has been posted on a tent set up near the site, where the bodies are being transferred for identification.

The tragedy occurred during a performance by renowned merengue singer Rubby Pérez, who was among the deceased.

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Colombia to host fourth EU-CELAC Summit in November

The Fourth Summit between the European Union (EU) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) will take place on November 9 and 10 in Santa Marta, Colombia, according to a joint statement released Wednesday by the Colombian government and the European Council.

The summit will be co-chaired by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, in his role as pro tempore president of CELAC, and European Council President António Costa, the statement added.

The last EU-CELAC summit took place in July 2023 in Brussels, when both blocs agreed to hold these meetings every two years.

The summit brings together the 27 EU member states and the 33 CELAC countries, representing 14% of the global population, 21% of global GDP, and one-third of the members of the United Nations, the communiqué noted.

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Russia and US to Meet in Istanbul for Diplomatic Talks on April 10

The Kremlin confirmed today a forthcoming meeting with the United States to discuss the normalization of diplomatic relations, which will take place in Istanbul.

“Our participation will be through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” said Dmitry Peskov, the presidential spokesperson, during his daily telephone press conference.

Peskov was responding to a question about who would represent Russia in the new round of negotiations, which is supposedly scheduled for April 10.

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had said a few days ago that the next meeting would be held in the Turkish city, though he did not confirm a date.

Lavrov, who participated in only one of these meetings, clarified that the upcoming discussions would address the issues still dividing Moscow and Washington diplomatically, referring to the operations of both countries’ embassies.

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Meanwhile, Trump expressed discontent with Russia’s recent attacks, including one last week that killed 20 people in Krivi Rig, the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

So far, Russia has rejected a cessation of hostilities and only declared a 30-day ceasefire on March 18 against attacks on energy infrastructure, which was extended by Kyiv a week later.

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