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Putin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war with Ukraine and the West, which would be due to his unexpected decision to replace his faithful Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, with an economist who will be in charge of modernizing the military industry.

“It is your right, if you want to (solve the crisis) on the battlefield, because it will be on the battlefield,” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said on Monday, when speaking before the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Senate.

The information bomb that exploded on Sunday night had a greater impact because of the name of its substitute, the gray economist Andrei Belousov, in charge of the Government for the production of drones, an aspect in which Kiev has a clear advantage.

Belousov, whose candidacy will be endorsed on Tuesday by the Senate, will now have to manage a war economy with a defense budget of 6.7%, similar to that of the USSR in the last years of the Cold War.

Putin always defended the criticism of Shoigu, who was vilified by the absence of a clear strategy on the battlefield, especially since the campaign stalled in July 2022.

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Shoigu, who in twelve years in office also led the military operation in Syria, played a very useful role for the Kremlin, since he served as a parapet against attacks by hawks such as the late founder of the Wagner company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who accused him of “criminal negligence.”

The Russian leader made changes in the generalate after the withdrawals of Kherson and Kharkov, and the armed rebellion of Prigozhin in June 2023, but had patience with Shoigu.

What he didn’t forgive was corruption. Shoigu’s right-hand man, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on April 23 after being accused of large-scale corruption.

“The cleaning has begun in the Ministry of Defense, but it will continue,” said Sergey Mironov, a social democratic leader and friend of Prigozhin.

According to experts, since then the fate of the Minister of Defense was cast. He said goodbye when he directed the Victory Day military stop over Nazi Germany in the Red Square on May 9.

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All Russia’s defense ministers since Putin arrived at the Kremlin in 2000 have been civilians, but Belousov was a more than unlikely candidate, since he has no military experience, according to the press.

In fact, in his first public appearance on Monday before the Senate defense and security committee, Belousov answered questions about the social problems faced by soldiers when they return from the front.

“He is a civilian, he is not a soldier. The military actions, the special military operation, the command, is directed by the General Staff under the command of the Supreme Commander. There is no change here, the work continues. No one should be worried,” said Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Senate.

It is an open secret that it is Putin and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerásimov, who set the military strategy and priorities on the battlefield.

The change in Defense coincides with the current Russian offensive in the Donbas and in the northeastern region of Kharkov, where Russian troops have opened a second front by conquering several Ukrainian localities.

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Putin’s decision, a little friend of the purges within the government, adds to the surprising replacement of Nikolai Patrushev, one of the most influential figures in the hard core of the Kremlin.

Pátrushev, one of the ideologues of the narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist, ceased to be secretary of the Security Council, since he will now assume Shoigu.

The risk of technocrats like Belousov, not always supporters of the use of force, is compensated by their effective management of resources and their limited fondness for conspiracies, as happened with the generals who supported the Prigozhin uprising.

In fact, the new minister will have to strengthen the links between the Armed Forces and the defense industry, which will be the locomotive of the economy, since the victory in the war and the viability of social programs depends on it.

The weapons factories have hired more than half a million people “in just over a year,” as the new first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, admitted today.

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According to the Russian press in exile and the Institute for the Study of War, everything indicates that Putin is preparing for a long military campaign that will require very careful management of state resources, as long as oil prices are above $60.

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International

Ninth Victim Recovered After Deadliest U.S. Avalanche in Decades

Rescue teams in California on Saturday recovered the body of the ninth and final victim of a deadly avalanche in the Sierra Nevada mountains, according to the local sheriff’s office.

The avalanche struck a group of 11 skiers and four guides on Tuesday as they were returning from a three-day backcountry trip near Castle Peak, a 2,777-meter (9,111-foot) mountain and popular tourist destination on the U.S. West Coast.

Six people were rescued alive on Tuesday. Authorities said the incident marks the deadliest avalanche in the United States since 1981.

“All nine individuals who lost their lives in the February 17 Castle Peak avalanche have been safely recovered from the mountain,” the Nevada County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement.

“There are no words that can truly capture the magnitude of this loss, and our hearts grieve alongside the families affected by this catastrophic event,” Sheriff Shannan Moon said.

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Officials had warned on Thursday that search operations would likely continue through the weekend due to severe weather conditions in the area.

Survivors were able to call for help shortly after the avalanche occurred. However, near-zero visibility and the risk of additional snow slides prevented rescue teams from reaching them for several hours.

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International

Trump Defies Supreme Court With New 10% Global Tariff

Defiant in the face of a judicial setback, Donald Trump on Friday imposed a new across-the-board 10% tariff after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that he does not have the authority to levy customs duties under the guise of a national emergency.

The Republican president signed the order in the Oval Office and announced on social media that the measure would take effect “almost immediately.” According to a statement from the White House, the decree will formally enter into force on February 24 for a period of 150 days.

It remains unclear whether the new tariff will apply to countries that have already negotiated trade agreements establishing rates higher than 10%.

Earlier in the day, the conservative-majority court ruled that a 1977 law cited by Trump to abruptly impose tariffs on individual countries — disrupting global trade — “does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.”

Trump said he was “deeply disappointed” by the decision and accused some justices of being influenced by “foreign interests.”

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Although he has made variable tariffs a cornerstone of his foreign policy, Trump acknowledged that it is uncertain whether the government will have to refund revenue already collected. A study by the University of Pennsylvaniaestimated that the amount at stake could reach as much as $175 billion.

“That issue was not addressed by the Court,” Trump told reporters, warning that the legal battle could drag on for “years.”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who dissented from the Court’s 6–3 majority opinion, cautioned that the legal process could become a “mess.”

Trump denied any error or haste in using tariffs as a policy tool, arguing instead that the six justices who ruled against him were motivated by “political correctness.” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the Court had acted “outside the law.”

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International

U.S. Targets Members of Outgoing Boric Administration With Visa Revocations

The United States government announced on Friday the revocation of visas for three Chilean officials—whose identities were not initially disclosed—citing activities that allegedly “undermined regional security,” an accusation that Chile denies.

In a statement, the U.S. Department of State did not provide specific details about the individuals involved but criticized the outgoing administration of leftist President Gabriel Boric.

“The legacy of the Boric government will be further tarnished by actions that undermine regional security to the ultimate detriment of the Chilean people,” the statement read. It was signed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Chile’s Minister of Transport, Juan Carlos Muñoz, later confirmed in a video message to the press that he is among those sanctioned.

“I was recently informed that my visa to enter the United States has been revoked by that country, which I deeply regret,” Muñoz said.

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The U.S. statement also noted that Washington hopes to “advance shared priorities, including those that strengthen security in our hemisphere, with the upcoming Kast government.”

The electoral victory of ultraconservative leader José Antonio Kast was welcomed in Washington, which has been building alliances with like-minded governments in the region to reinforce its diplomatic and economic agenda—particularly in response to China’s growing investment presence in Latin America.

“We remain committed to promoting accountability for Chilean individuals who deliberately work to destabilize our hemisphere,” the statement concluded.

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