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Putin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war with Ukraine and the West, which would be due to his unexpected decision to replace his faithful Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, with an economist who will be in charge of modernizing the military industry.

“It is your right, if you want to (solve the crisis) on the battlefield, because it will be on the battlefield,” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said on Monday, when speaking before the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Senate.

The information bomb that exploded on Sunday night had a greater impact because of the name of its substitute, the gray economist Andrei Belousov, in charge of the Government for the production of drones, an aspect in which Kiev has a clear advantage.

Belousov, whose candidacy will be endorsed on Tuesday by the Senate, will now have to manage a war economy with a defense budget of 6.7%, similar to that of the USSR in the last years of the Cold War.

Putin always defended the criticism of Shoigu, who was vilified by the absence of a clear strategy on the battlefield, especially since the campaign stalled in July 2022.

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Shoigu, who in twelve years in office also led the military operation in Syria, played a very useful role for the Kremlin, since he served as a parapet against attacks by hawks such as the late founder of the Wagner company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who accused him of “criminal negligence.”

The Russian leader made changes in the generalate after the withdrawals of Kherson and Kharkov, and the armed rebellion of Prigozhin in June 2023, but had patience with Shoigu.

What he didn’t forgive was corruption. Shoigu’s right-hand man, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on April 23 after being accused of large-scale corruption.

“The cleaning has begun in the Ministry of Defense, but it will continue,” said Sergey Mironov, a social democratic leader and friend of Prigozhin.

According to experts, since then the fate of the Minister of Defense was cast. He said goodbye when he directed the Victory Day military stop over Nazi Germany in the Red Square on May 9.

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All Russia’s defense ministers since Putin arrived at the Kremlin in 2000 have been civilians, but Belousov was a more than unlikely candidate, since he has no military experience, according to the press.

In fact, in his first public appearance on Monday before the Senate defense and security committee, Belousov answered questions about the social problems faced by soldiers when they return from the front.

“He is a civilian, he is not a soldier. The military actions, the special military operation, the command, is directed by the General Staff under the command of the Supreme Commander. There is no change here, the work continues. No one should be worried,” said Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Senate.

It is an open secret that it is Putin and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerásimov, who set the military strategy and priorities on the battlefield.

The change in Defense coincides with the current Russian offensive in the Donbas and in the northeastern region of Kharkov, where Russian troops have opened a second front by conquering several Ukrainian localities.

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Putin’s decision, a little friend of the purges within the government, adds to the surprising replacement of Nikolai Patrushev, one of the most influential figures in the hard core of the Kremlin.

Pátrushev, one of the ideologues of the narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist, ceased to be secretary of the Security Council, since he will now assume Shoigu.

The risk of technocrats like Belousov, not always supporters of the use of force, is compensated by their effective management of resources and their limited fondness for conspiracies, as happened with the generals who supported the Prigozhin uprising.

In fact, the new minister will have to strengthen the links between the Armed Forces and the defense industry, which will be the locomotive of the economy, since the victory in the war and the viability of social programs depends on it.

The weapons factories have hired more than half a million people “in just over a year,” as the new first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, admitted today.

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According to the Russian press in exile and the Institute for the Study of War, everything indicates that Putin is preparing for a long military campaign that will require very careful management of state resources, as long as oil prices are above $60.

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International

Bayly Says Trump ‘Gets Along Better With Dictators’ and Criticizes U.S.–Venezuela Policy

Peruvian author and journalist Jaime Bayly said Tuesday in Madrid that U.S. President Donald Trump “gets along better with dictators than he does with democrats” and that his administration is experiencing “a honeymoon with the Venezuelan dictatorship,” according to a report on his remarks during the launch of his new novel Los golpistas (Galaxia Gutenberg).

Bayly made the comments while presenting the book, which reconstructs the turbulent three days in April 2002 when Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez briefly lost power. He also sharply criticized the current Venezuelan leadership, saying that Delcy Rodríguez should be recognized as a dictator and “a continuation of Maduro’s dictatorship.”

The writer lamented that the failed 2002 coup — which he described as carried out by “amateurs” — did not lead to free elections that might have restored democracy to Venezuela. He argued that, even now, U.S. policy under Trump seems more focused on securing access to Venezuelan oil than on supporting Venezuelans’ freedom. “Venezuela could have chosen a free, clean and legitimate government — which we still impatiently await despite Trump, who only seems interested in freeing Venezuelan oil, not Venezuelans,” Bayly said.

Bayly also claimed that “every day that passes, Trump seems more enchanted with Delcy,” suggesting that Washington might leave Venezuelan leaders in power so long as they cooperate on economic interests.

A U.S. citizen who has lived in Miami for decades, Bayly said he is proud never to have voted for Trump, whom he described as “servile with the powerful and cruel with the weak.” He also criticized U.S. immigration enforcement as abusive.

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Regarding the book’s creative process, Bayly said he combined extensive documentation and interviews with historical events, weaving fictional dialogue and narrative into real episodes without altering core facts. Los golpistas explores why the April 2002 coup attempt against Chávez failed and how key figures such as Chávez and Cuban leader Fidel Castroshaped modern Venezuelan history.

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International

Maduro and Cilia Flores Receive Consular Visit in U.S. Jail Ahead of March 26 Hearing

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is detained in the United States, and his wife, Cilia Flores, received a consular visit from a Venezuelan government official on January 30 while they remain in a New York jail awaiting their next court appearance, scheduled for March 26, 2026, according to a court filing.

The notification, submitted to the judge by prosecutors and the defense and now part of the digital case file, states that Maduro and Flores were visited by “an official representing the Republic of Venezuela to help facilitate any services the accused needed.”

The document also notes that U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein ordered the U.S. prosecutor’s office at the couple’s first court appearance on January 5 to ensure they had access to consular services and to inform the court when such access was provided.

Their next hearing was postponed by the court from an original date of March 17 to March 26 at 11:00 a.m., after prosecutors, with the consent of the defense, requested extra time to gather evidence, allow the defense to review it, and determine which pretrial motions they will file, the filing says.

Maduro has denied wrongdoing, calling himself “innocent” of the narcotics charges authorities have brought in federal court.

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International

Rubio Engages in Quiet Discussions With Castro Family as U.S. Pressures Havana

El secretario de Estado de Estados Unidos, Marco Rubio, sostuvo conversaciones secretas con Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, nieto y actual cuidador del expresidente cubano Raúl Castro, según reveló este miércoles el medio estadounidense Axios. Los contactos se producen en un contexto de fuerte presión de Washington sobre el Gobierno de La Habana.

De acuerdo con la publicación, los diálogos han evitado los canales oficiales del Ejecutivo cubano y reflejan que la administración del Presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, considera al exmandatario de 94 años como la figura que aún influye en las decisiones clave de la isla. Un alto funcionario citado por Axios matizó el carácter de los encuentros al afirmar: «Yo no las llamaría ‘negociaciones’, sino ‘discusiones’ sobre el futuro».

Rubio, de ascendencia cubana, y su equipo ven en Rodríguez Castro, de 41 años, y su entorno a una generación más joven y con mentalidad empresarial, que percibe agotado el modelo comunista tradicional y valora un eventual acercamiento con Estados Unidos. “Nuestra postura —la postura del gobierno estadounidense— es que el régimen tiene que irse”, declaró el funcionario a Axios, al tiempo que agregó que “pero cómo se verá eso exactamente depende del presidente Trump y aún no lo ha decidido. Rubio sigue en conversaciones con su nieto”.

Según fuentes citadas por el medio, asesores de Trump han mantenido contactos con otros actores influyentes en Cuba, pero consideran al nieto de Castro una figura clave por su cercanía con el exmandatario y sus vínculos con el conglomerado militar-empresarial GAESA. Una fuente describió los intercambios como “sorprendentemente” amistosos.

Las revelaciones surgen mientras el Presidente de Estados Unidos confirmó recientemente que su Gobierno mantiene conversaciones con altos funcionarios cubanos, aunque La Habana lo ha negado. “Estamos hablando con Cuba ahora mismo. (El secretario de Estado de EE.UU.) Marco Rubio está hablando con Cuba ahora mismo, y deberían totalmente llegar a un acuerdo, porque es… realmente, una amenaza humanitaria”, declaró el mandatario a bordo del avión presidencial.

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El endurecimiento del bloqueo energético estadounidense ha profundizado la crisis en la isla, con apagones prolongados, reducción de servicios en hospitales y oficinas públicas, y limitaciones en el abastecimiento de productos, lo que añade presión a un eventual diálogo entre Washington y La Habana.

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