International
Putin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister
Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war with Ukraine and the West, which would be due to his unexpected decision to replace his faithful Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, with an economist who will be in charge of modernizing the military industry.
“It is your right, if you want to (solve the crisis) on the battlefield, because it will be on the battlefield,” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said on Monday, when speaking before the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Senate.
The information bomb that exploded on Sunday night had a greater impact because of the name of its substitute, the gray economist Andrei Belousov, in charge of the Government for the production of drones, an aspect in which Kiev has a clear advantage.
Belousov, whose candidacy will be endorsed on Tuesday by the Senate, will now have to manage a war economy with a defense budget of 6.7%, similar to that of the USSR in the last years of the Cold War.
Putin always defended the criticism of Shoigu, who was vilified by the absence of a clear strategy on the battlefield, especially since the campaign stalled in July 2022.
Shoigu, who in twelve years in office also led the military operation in Syria, played a very useful role for the Kremlin, since he served as a parapet against attacks by hawks such as the late founder of the Wagner company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who accused him of “criminal negligence.”
The Russian leader made changes in the generalate after the withdrawals of Kherson and Kharkov, and the armed rebellion of Prigozhin in June 2023, but had patience with Shoigu.
What he didn’t forgive was corruption. Shoigu’s right-hand man, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on April 23 after being accused of large-scale corruption.
“The cleaning has begun in the Ministry of Defense, but it will continue,” said Sergey Mironov, a social democratic leader and friend of Prigozhin.
According to experts, since then the fate of the Minister of Defense was cast. He said goodbye when he directed the Victory Day military stop over Nazi Germany in the Red Square on May 9.
All Russia’s defense ministers since Putin arrived at the Kremlin in 2000 have been civilians, but Belousov was a more than unlikely candidate, since he has no military experience, according to the press.
In fact, in his first public appearance on Monday before the Senate defense and security committee, Belousov answered questions about the social problems faced by soldiers when they return from the front.
“He is a civilian, he is not a soldier. The military actions, the special military operation, the command, is directed by the General Staff under the command of the Supreme Commander. There is no change here, the work continues. No one should be worried,” said Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Senate.
It is an open secret that it is Putin and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerásimov, who set the military strategy and priorities on the battlefield.
The change in Defense coincides with the current Russian offensive in the Donbas and in the northeastern region of Kharkov, where Russian troops have opened a second front by conquering several Ukrainian localities.
Putin’s decision, a little friend of the purges within the government, adds to the surprising replacement of Nikolai Patrushev, one of the most influential figures in the hard core of the Kremlin.
Pátrushev, one of the ideologues of the narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist, ceased to be secretary of the Security Council, since he will now assume Shoigu.
The risk of technocrats like Belousov, not always supporters of the use of force, is compensated by their effective management of resources and their limited fondness for conspiracies, as happened with the generals who supported the Prigozhin uprising.
In fact, the new minister will have to strengthen the links between the Armed Forces and the defense industry, which will be the locomotive of the economy, since the victory in the war and the viability of social programs depends on it.
The weapons factories have hired more than half a million people “in just over a year,” as the new first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, admitted today.
According to the Russian press in exile and the Institute for the Study of War, everything indicates that Putin is preparing for a long military campaign that will require very careful management of state resources, as long as oil prices are above $60.
International
German president says trust in U.S. leadership is ‘lost’ amid global tensions
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Tuesday that trust between the United States and its Western allies has been “lost,” warning that the damage could persist beyond the presidency of Donald Trump.
“The rupture is very deep, and the loss of trust in U.S. great power policy is significant—not only among its allies, but also, as I observe, globally,” Steinmeier said during a speech in Berlin marking the 75th anniversary of Germany’s Foreign Ministry.
Referring to the future of transatlantic relations, he stated that “there is no return to the situation before January 20, 2025,” the date marking the start of Trump’s second term in the White House.
“Even a future U.S. administration will no longer be able to resume the role of a benevolent hegemon guaranteeing a liberal international order,” added Steinmeier, who previously served as Germany’s foreign minister.
He also criticized the war against Iran, describing it as “contrary to international law” and calling it “a political mistake with serious consequences.”
“This war is avoidable and unnecessary,” he said.
Although the German presidency is largely ceremonial, Steinmeier’s remarks reflect a broader concern within Germany, aligning with the government’s cautious stance while going further in tone.
International
Trump claims talks with Iran as G7 meets to address global tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States has held talks with Iran—a claim denied by Tehran—and has temporarily paused his threat to target the country’s electrical infrastructure.
In his first overseas trip since the United States and Israel launched their offensive on February 28, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to address key global issues, including the situation in the Middle East, according to State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott.
Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven will meet in Cernay-la-Ville, close to Versailles, on the outskirts of Paris.
During the meeting, Rubio will hold discussions with his counterparts on “the war between Russia and Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and threats to global peace and stability,” Pigott said.
France currently holds the presidency of the G7, whose members also include the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Japan.
Although all G7 nations are close allies of the United States, none has offered explicit support for Washington’s military actions against Iran, a stance that has reportedly frustrated Trump.
Last Saturday, G7 foreign ministers called for an “immediate and unconditional end” to Iranian attacks against U.S. allies in the Middle East.
International
Pentagon to deploy 3,000 troops to Persian Gulf as Middle East tensions escalate
The Pentagon is planning to deploy nearly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Persian Gulf, according to two senior officials cited Tuesday by Spanish newspaper El País.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah warned it would confront any attempt at occupation following Israel’s announcement that its military will take control of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, located about 30 kilometers from the border.
In recent hours, the Israel Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on Beirut, while Iran and Hezbollah responded with attacks on Israel, leaving at least six people with minor injuries in Tel Aviv.
The escalation comes as global markets react to renewed instability. The price of oil rose again above $100 per barrel after a brief decline the previous day, following an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of a five-day truce on attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Despite the announcement, Iranian authorities reported that two projectiles struck a gas pipeline in Khorramshahr and administrative buildings at a gas facility in Isfahan early Tuesday.
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