International

Putin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war with Ukraine and the West, which would be due to his unexpected decision to replace his faithful Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, with an economist who will be in charge of modernizing the military industry.

“It is your right, if you want to (solve the crisis) on the battlefield, because it will be on the battlefield,” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said on Monday, when speaking before the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Senate.

The information bomb that exploded on Sunday night had a greater impact because of the name of its substitute, the gray economist Andrei Belousov, in charge of the Government for the production of drones, an aspect in which Kiev has a clear advantage.

Belousov, whose candidacy will be endorsed on Tuesday by the Senate, will now have to manage a war economy with a defense budget of 6.7%, similar to that of the USSR in the last years of the Cold War.

Putin always defended the criticism of Shoigu, who was vilified by the absence of a clear strategy on the battlefield, especially since the campaign stalled in July 2022.

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Shoigu, who in twelve years in office also led the military operation in Syria, played a very useful role for the Kremlin, since he served as a parapet against attacks by hawks such as the late founder of the Wagner company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who accused him of “criminal negligence.”

The Russian leader made changes in the generalate after the withdrawals of Kherson and Kharkov, and the armed rebellion of Prigozhin in June 2023, but had patience with Shoigu.

What he didn’t forgive was corruption. Shoigu’s right-hand man, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on April 23 after being accused of large-scale corruption.

“The cleaning has begun in the Ministry of Defense, but it will continue,” said Sergey Mironov, a social democratic leader and friend of Prigozhin.

According to experts, since then the fate of the Minister of Defense was cast. He said goodbye when he directed the Victory Day military stop over Nazi Germany in the Red Square on May 9.

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All Russia’s defense ministers since Putin arrived at the Kremlin in 2000 have been civilians, but Belousov was a more than unlikely candidate, since he has no military experience, according to the press.

In fact, in his first public appearance on Monday before the Senate defense and security committee, Belousov answered questions about the social problems faced by soldiers when they return from the front.

“He is a civilian, he is not a soldier. The military actions, the special military operation, the command, is directed by the General Staff under the command of the Supreme Commander. There is no change here, the work continues. No one should be worried,” said Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Senate.

It is an open secret that it is Putin and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerásimov, who set the military strategy and priorities on the battlefield.

The change in Defense coincides with the current Russian offensive in the Donbas and in the northeastern region of Kharkov, where Russian troops have opened a second front by conquering several Ukrainian localities.

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Putin’s decision, a little friend of the purges within the government, adds to the surprising replacement of Nikolai Patrushev, one of the most influential figures in the hard core of the Kremlin.

Pátrushev, one of the ideologues of the narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist, ceased to be secretary of the Security Council, since he will now assume Shoigu.

The risk of technocrats like Belousov, not always supporters of the use of force, is compensated by their effective management of resources and their limited fondness for conspiracies, as happened with the generals who supported the Prigozhin uprising.

In fact, the new minister will have to strengthen the links between the Armed Forces and the defense industry, which will be the locomotive of the economy, since the victory in the war and the viability of social programs depends on it.

The weapons factories have hired more than half a million people “in just over a year,” as the new first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, admitted today.

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According to the Russian press in exile and the Institute for the Study of War, everything indicates that Putin is preparing for a long military campaign that will require very careful management of state resources, as long as oil prices are above $60.

International

US panel backs Trump-themed coin amid controversy

The United States Department of the Treasury confirmed to AFP that the Commission of Fine Arts approved the design of a new collectible coin featuring Donald Trump, with members of the commission appointed by the current administration.

According to the proposal, the coin will feature an image of Trump standing with clenched fists over a desk on the obverse, while the reverse will display an eagle, a traditional symbol of the United States.

The sale price of the collectible has not yet been disclosed, although the United States Mint typically offers similar items for more than $1,000.

“There is no more iconic portrait for the front of these coins than that of our president Donald Trump,” U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach said in a statement sent to AFP. He added that two additional coins — a $1 piece and a one-ounce gold coin — are also under consideration.

However, the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC), another body responsible for reviewing new coin proposals, declined to discuss the Trump design in late February.

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“Only nations governed by kings or dictators place the image of a sitting leader on their currency,” said Donald Scarinciat the time. “No country in the world has minted coins featuring a democratically elected leader during their term in office,” he added.

When contacted by AFP, the Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for further comment.

International

Fed’s Waller warns of rising inflation risks amid Middle East conflict

Christopher Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said Friday that he is increasingly concerned about the inflationary impact of the ongoing conflict involving United States and Israel against Iran, particularly due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Waller, who had supported interest rate cuts over the past year amid concerns about the labor market, said he has shifted his stance in recent weeks due to rising inflation risks.

“Since the Strait of Hormuz was closed, it suggests this conflict could be much more prolonged and that oil prices will remain elevated for longer,” Waller said in an interview with CNBC.

“Therefore, this indicates that inflation is a greater concern than I had previously assessed,” he added.

Waller also backed the Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this week to keep interest rates unchanged, signaling a more cautious approach as global geopolitical tensions continue to affect economic outlooks.

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International

Brazil offers to mediate Colombia-Ecuador tensions, calls for restraint

The government of Brazil has offered to mediate in the ongoing tensions between Colombia and Ecuador, while calling on both nations to exercise restraint.

In a statement released Wednesday, Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the parties involved to act with moderation and seek a peaceful resolution to the dispute.

“Brazil encourages all sides to act with moderation in order to find a peaceful solution to the controversy. It stands ready to support dialogue efforts aimed at preserving peace and security in the region,” the statement said.

Brazil also expressed “serious concern” over reports of deaths in the border area between Colombia and Ecuador, noting that the circumstances surrounding the incidents have not yet been clarified.

The diplomatic move comes amid rising tensions between the neighboring countries, increasing regional concern over stability and security along their shared border.