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Putin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war with Ukraine and the West, which would be due to his unexpected decision to replace his faithful Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, with an economist who will be in charge of modernizing the military industry.

“It is your right, if you want to (solve the crisis) on the battlefield, because it will be on the battlefield,” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said on Monday, when speaking before the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Senate.

The information bomb that exploded on Sunday night had a greater impact because of the name of its substitute, the gray economist Andrei Belousov, in charge of the Government for the production of drones, an aspect in which Kiev has a clear advantage.

Belousov, whose candidacy will be endorsed on Tuesday by the Senate, will now have to manage a war economy with a defense budget of 6.7%, similar to that of the USSR in the last years of the Cold War.

Putin always defended the criticism of Shoigu, who was vilified by the absence of a clear strategy on the battlefield, especially since the campaign stalled in July 2022.

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Shoigu, who in twelve years in office also led the military operation in Syria, played a very useful role for the Kremlin, since he served as a parapet against attacks by hawks such as the late founder of the Wagner company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who accused him of “criminal negligence.”

The Russian leader made changes in the generalate after the withdrawals of Kherson and Kharkov, and the armed rebellion of Prigozhin in June 2023, but had patience with Shoigu.

What he didn’t forgive was corruption. Shoigu’s right-hand man, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on April 23 after being accused of large-scale corruption.

“The cleaning has begun in the Ministry of Defense, but it will continue,” said Sergey Mironov, a social democratic leader and friend of Prigozhin.

According to experts, since then the fate of the Minister of Defense was cast. He said goodbye when he directed the Victory Day military stop over Nazi Germany in the Red Square on May 9.

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All Russia’s defense ministers since Putin arrived at the Kremlin in 2000 have been civilians, but Belousov was a more than unlikely candidate, since he has no military experience, according to the press.

In fact, in his first public appearance on Monday before the Senate defense and security committee, Belousov answered questions about the social problems faced by soldiers when they return from the front.

“He is a civilian, he is not a soldier. The military actions, the special military operation, the command, is directed by the General Staff under the command of the Supreme Commander. There is no change here, the work continues. No one should be worried,” said Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Senate.

It is an open secret that it is Putin and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerásimov, who set the military strategy and priorities on the battlefield.

The change in Defense coincides with the current Russian offensive in the Donbas and in the northeastern region of Kharkov, where Russian troops have opened a second front by conquering several Ukrainian localities.

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Putin’s decision, a little friend of the purges within the government, adds to the surprising replacement of Nikolai Patrushev, one of the most influential figures in the hard core of the Kremlin.

Pátrushev, one of the ideologues of the narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist, ceased to be secretary of the Security Council, since he will now assume Shoigu.

The risk of technocrats like Belousov, not always supporters of the use of force, is compensated by their effective management of resources and their limited fondness for conspiracies, as happened with the generals who supported the Prigozhin uprising.

In fact, the new minister will have to strengthen the links between the Armed Forces and the defense industry, which will be the locomotive of the economy, since the victory in the war and the viability of social programs depends on it.

The weapons factories have hired more than half a million people “in just over a year,” as the new first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, admitted today.

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According to the Russian press in exile and the Institute for the Study of War, everything indicates that Putin is preparing for a long military campaign that will require very careful management of state resources, as long as oil prices are above $60.

International

Thirteen cuban military members missing after explosion at arms warehouse

Thirteen members of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) have been reported “missing” following an explosion at an arms and ammunition warehouse in the eastern part of the island, the military institution announced.

“As a result of the explosions at an arms and ammunition warehouse in the Melones community… in the province of Holguín, 730 km east of Havana,” two officers, two non-commissioned officers, and nine soldiers are reported as “missing,” according to a statement from the Ministry of the Armed Forces released by Cuban state television.

The statement specified that “investigations are still ongoing at the site,” which led to the evacuation of more than 1,200 residents from areas near the warehouse of a military unit where “aged ammunition was being classified.”

Neither the official press nor Cuban state television have provided images of the explosions at the military unit, but independent media outlets published photos online showing a massive column of smoke and police officers deployed in the streets of the Melones community.

 

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Trump considers declaring National Economic Emergency to justify universal tariffs

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The proclamation of these measures would grant the incoming U.S. president the freedom to create a new tariff program using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

This move would give the president the authority to manage imports during a national emergency.

According to the report, Trump has a penchant for this law as it provides broad jurisdiction on how tariffs are implemented without strict requirements to prove they are necessary for national security reasons.

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Venezuelan opposition candidate Enrique Márquez detained ahead of Maduro’s inauguration

Enrique Márquez, a minority opposition candidate in Venezuela’s July 28 elections, was “arbitrarily detained,” denounced a political coalition he is part of and his wife, who described the action as “kidnapping.”

Since Tuesday night, there has been a wave of reports of detentions, with at least a dozen arrests just over 48 hours before President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration for a third six-year term, following a controversial reelection.

“We inform that yesterday, 07.01.25, Enrique Márquez was arbitrarily detained,” stated the Popular Democratic Front (FDP).

“He was kidnapped by paramilitary groups who, using force as their law, aim to silence and intimidate those of us who want a better country and have a different vision,” said his wife, Sonia Lugo de Márquez, on the leader’s X account.

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