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What is Trump’s chance of going to jail?

Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted in a criminal trial on Thursday, but his guilty verdict for falsification of commercial records does not imply, according to various experts, that he will go to jail.

The jury of his trial in New York did not absolve him of any of the 34 charges against him, each of which can result in a fine of up to $5,000 and up to four years in prison, in case he imposed the maximum penalty.

However, it is most likely that it will be dictated that what is decided for each of those positions will be fulfilled at the same time, which would reduce that period between bars to four years in total.

Dan Horwtitz, a defense lawyer who in the past took ‘white-neck’ cases for the office of the Manhattan District Prosecutor’s Office, pointed out on Thursday on CBS News that the possibility of house arrest is the most feasible.

That sentence would allow the former president and pre-candidate for the November elections to continue his campaign, even if it was virtually.

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But the possibilities are wide: Judge Juan Merchan, in the opinion of the expert, “could sentence him to a period of months or weeks in prison or he could demand that he go to jail every weekend for a while and then serve the rest of the sentence on parole.”

The 77-year-old Republican president, his status and lack of background are presented as points in his favor.

According to the NBC News channel, an analysis of “thousands of cases” similar to the one starring Trump points out that “very few people” end up in bars: barely one in ten convicted of falsifying commercial records, and those cases used to also involve other crimes.

The former president faced 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records, all related to the reimbursement to his lawyer for paying in 2016 a total of $130,000 to the porn actress Stormy Daniels to silence an alleged sexual relationship in 2006.

The sentence will be announced on July 11, four days before the start of the convention in which the Republican Party is expected to officially proclaim Trump as its candidate for the November elections.

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In any case, the possible appeal of the former president would delay an eventual entry into prison.

The New York Times made it clear on Thursday that nothing can be taken for granted: “But there have been no indication of what Judge Merchan could decide, he has made it known that he takes white collar crimes seriously. Trump has attacked him and continuously denounced him as “partial and corrupt,” that newspaper said.

At the moment Trump is still a free man and a prison sentence would not invalidate his candidacy or his eventual presidency. The U.S. Constitution does not provide for anything about it, since it only requires presidents to be at least 35 years old and that they are U.S. citizens who have lived in the country for 14 years.

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International

Austrian man arrested in Croatia with deceased woman as passenger in his car

A 65-year-old Austrian citizen was arrested at a border checkpoint in Croatia after attempting to enter the country in his car with a deceased woman sitting as a passenger, police announced on Tuesday.

The man was detained in a routine check in late November in Gunja, a border area separating Bosnia from Croatia, the police told AFP. Suspicious because they saw “no consciousness or movement” from the passenger, Croatian officers called a doctor, who confirmed the death of the 83-year-old woman, also Austrian, according to her identification.

The woman’s relationship to the suspect is unknown. She had died in Bosnia, and the man intended to repatriate her body to Austria to “avoid the formalities related to transporting a corpse,” according to the police. Croatian media reported that the man was her legal guardian.

Once her death was confirmed, a funeral service took charge of the body.

 

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Colombian nationals arrested for human trafficking and disappearance of migrant boat

 

Colombian authorities arrested two nationals accused of the illegal trafficking of migrants to the United States and of endangering lives due to the disappearance of a boat with 40 people aboard, U.S. Department of Justice officials reported on Tuesday.

Hernando Manuel de la Cruz Rivera Orjuela, 52, and Luis Enrique Linero Pinto, 40, both Colombian citizens, were arrested on December 13 in Colombia at the request of the United States for their alleged involvement in a “transnational human trafficking operation,” the department said in a statement.

According to the charges, the detainees were transporting migrants to San Andrés Island in the Caribbean, where they would then be taken by boat to Nicaragua. The goal was to reach the United States through Central America and Mexico.

The accused are said to have advised the migrants on how to reach San Andrés Island, where they personally received them, arranged accommodations, and “took them to the boats that transported them to Nicaragua so they could enter the United States illegally,” the statement reads.

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“These defendants put several migrants on the boat that disappeared off the coast of Nicaragua in 2023,” said Deputy Attorney General Nicole M. Argentieri, head of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Criminal Division, as cited in the statement.

Both men are “directly and personally responsible for the illicit trafficking of migrants on that vessel,” according to the indictment dated October 23.

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International

Homemade landmine explosion in Michoacán kills two soldiers, injures five

Two soldiers were killed and five others were injured by the explosion of homemade landmines planted by a criminal group in a mountainous area of the Mexican state of Michoacán (west), the Secretary of Defense reported on Tuesday.

The attack occurred on Monday morning in the municipality of Cotija, a border area between Michoacán and the state of Jalisco, when the military was conducting a reconnaissance mission after receiving information about an armed camp in the area, explained Secretary General Ricardo Trevilla.

“At that moment, an improvised explosive device detonated. Unfortunately, two soldiers lost their lives, and five others were injured,” the military leader detailed. The affected soldiers were airlifted to hospitals in the region by a military helicopter, while the rest of the team continued with the reconnaissance of the area.

Trevilla stated that before the explosion, the military unit had located the dismembered bodies of three people, and upon continuing the mission, they confirmed the camp was abandoned.

Asked about the individuals responsible for placing the explosives, the general suggested they could be criminals linked to the local group Cárteles Unidos, which operates in Michoacán and uses these tactics in their territorial dispute with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, one of the most powerful criminal organizations in the country.

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