International
Dengue will cover virtually all of Brazil and Mexico by 2039, according to a study
America is the continent most affected by dengue, with 8.1 million cases, and the situation will worsen in the coming years, according to a report that predicts that the infection will spread by 2039 to the practice the entire territory of Brazil and Mexico, the two largest countries in Latin America.
The research, published in the journal Nature Communications and in which scientists from Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States, Brazil and Mexico collaborated, predicts that by 2039 97% of the localities in Brazil will be affected by dengue, while in Mexico the figure will be 81%.
The analysis predicts that in Mexico the expansion of dengue will be mainly in the interior of the country, in the highest altitude areas of the central plateau.
The study estimates that the area of Tijuana, on the border with the United States, will be invaded between 2027 and 2030, and the area of Mexico City, between 2038 and 2039.
In Brazil, most of the areas invaded in the coming years will be in the south.
The situation is already alarming, according to experts from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) who met at the end of May in Washington, because so far this year, there are already three times more documented cases than the cases recorded in the same period of 2023. The deaths stand at 3,600.
The international team of researchers pointed out in their study that the spread of dengue, a febrile disease that is transmitted by the bite of a mosquito (Aedes aegypti) and that can cause difficulty breathing, severe bleeding and organ complications, will accelerate in the coming years due to the climate crisis and the greater mobility of the population.
The researchers used for the first time machine learning technology (known by artificial intelligence) to understand how the connection between areas and environmental conditions interact at the different stages of the infection, one of the scientists who participated in the study, Vinyas Harish, of the University of Toronto (Canada), told EFE.
“Many people have investigated environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, rain, to establish the relationship between those characteristics and mosquitoes,” Harish said.
“But to really understand how dengue affects the population, we needed to integrate that with data on the population’s mobility over time. We use machine learning to integrate those perspectives,” he added.
The data that the team used come from more than 8,000 municipalities in Brazil and Mexico during the past 25 years along with climate information, records of the appearance of epidemics and the history of genetic evolution.
In 1996, only 16 municipalities in Mexico (0.65% of the country’s total) were affected by dengue infection. But between 2000 and 2010, the infection expanded to 965 municipalities and by the end of 2019 the figure reached 1,350, 55% of the total.
In Brazil, the growth was similar. In 2001, dengue was only present in two states and 549 municipalities (9.96%). By 2019, the figure had exploded to 4,299 municipalities, 76.8%.
According to PAHO, there is no specific medicine to treat dengue, whose infection can occur without symptoms, or can be evidenced with symptoms ranging from a moderate fever to a high and incapacitating fever, headaches, muscle aches and rashes.
But Harish was optimistic since the conclusions of the study will allow the authorities to adopt preventive measures.
“From simple interventions, such as increasing awareness among the population to avoid the bites of these mosquitoes, to more complex, such as research on vaccines or mosquito replacement techniques,” he concluded.
International
Australia asks the population to write down their flatulence to study intestinal health
An Australian government scientific agency asked the population of the oceanic country on Friday to make an exhaustive record of their flatulence, in order to better understand how the excessive expulsion of gases impacts intestinal health.
‘Chart your fart’ campaign (Register your fart)
Through the ‘Chart your fart’ campaign, researchers from the Australian scientific and industrial government agency (CSIRO) invited people over the age of 14 to keep track of their winds in a free cell phone app for at least three days.
These data, which include the amount and quality of flatulence, including attributes such as smell, volume, duration, persistence and detectability, will help create a graph of what can be a ‘normal’ wind in the different groups of Australians, according to a statement from CSIRO.
“The expulsion of gases is a natural fact and a sign that our digestive system is functioning as it should to expel the excess gas that is produced by breaking down and processing the food we eat,” explained Megan Rebuli, a nutrition expert who participates in CISRO’s research.
Excessive flatulence, according to 60%
The characteristics of the winds vary by the intake of “different foods, medical conditions or even the way we chew or swallow can influence the way our body processes excess gases, which translates into odors, frequencies or even different volumes,” said Rabuli.
For her part, the project director and CISRO scientist, Emily Brindal, explained that this citizen research will be “as good as the data we obtain,” by trusting that the population will contribute to this study on the health and well-being of citizens, despite the fact that some people feel embarrassed or uncomfortable by this body function.
According to a study on CSIRO’s intestinal health in 2021, more than 60% of Australians reported experiencing what they identified as excessive flatulence, and up to 43% said they experienced it most days.
International
Israel bombs Lebanon again after a wave of attacks with dozens of dead
The Israeli Army bombed Dahye on Friday, a suburb in southern Beirut considered a stronghold of the Shiite group Hezbula, after ordering residents to evacuate the area and among a wave of attacks in Lebanon that have caused at least 43 deaths in recent hours.
The bombings took place on Friday morning, according to the Lebanese media Al-Mayadeen, and for the moment it is clear whether they caused deaths or injuries.
Shortly before, the Arabic spokesman of the Israeli Army, Avichay Adraee, urged the neighbors of several buildings located in the Ghobeiry area to evacuate “immediately and stay away from them at a distance of no less than 500 meters.”
Air planes against Hezbulá command centers
The Israeli Army already bombed the Dahye, including two Civil Defense centers, last Wednesday and Thursday, also after requesting the evacuation of several buildings in the area.
The armed forces then claimed in a statement that they had destroyed nine weapons warehouses and command centers of the Shiite group “embedded” in civilian areas, an argument that Israel repeats to justify its attacks on civilian infrastructure in Gaza and Lebanon.
This Friday, their fighter jets attacked the command centers of the elite force of the Shiite group Hizbulá (Radwan) in the Nabatieh area, in southern Lebanon.
Among the targets attacked is a terrorist infrastructure site used by the elite force of Hezbullah “to carry out terrorist attacks against the State of Israel and our troops,” according to a military statement.
He also said that yesterday the troops attacked more than “120 terrorist targets” throughout the neighboring country, including weapons storage facilities, command centers and a large number of launchers, including some from which Hezbulah fired rockets towards Haifa and the area of Upper Galilee, in northern Israel.
Early this Friday, the Army also bombed south of Beirut, a bastion of the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbula known as the Dahye, after a wave of attacks in Lebanon that have left at least 43 dead in recent hours.
Shortly before the attacks, the Arabic spokesman for the Israeli Army, Avichay Adraee, urged the neighbors of several buildings located in the Ghobeiry area to “evacuately and stay away from them at a distance of no less than 500 meters.”
According to a military statement, these attacks against the capital were targeted at weapons warehouses, a command center and other unspecified infrastructures of Hizbulá.
On the other hand, the Army also detected about five projectiles fired from Lebanon towards the district of Haifa and Alta Galilee, which were intercepted or fell in the open air.
Likewise, the military note assured that last night Israeli planes attacked “several smuggling routes of the Syrian regime” on the Syrian-Lebanese border, allegedly used for the illegal introduction of weapons to Hezbulah.
Negotiations for a ceasefire
This crossfire is maintained while in recent hours reports have continued to arrive disseminated by Israeli and American media indicating that the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon could be closer.
This Thursday, the Israeli Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, reiterated in a conversation he had with his French counterpart, Jean-Noël Barrot, that there is “a desire to achieve a ceasefire” in Lebanon to allow the more than 60,000 evacuees from the north to return to their homes, and that “progress” is being made in the negotiations.
Although, Saar also wanted to point out that an agreement is not enough if the international community does not guarantee that Lebanon “is returned to the Lebanese people instead of being controlled by the Iranian regime.”
In more than a year of conflict, at least 3,386 people have died in Lebanon and another 14,417 have been injured, including 220 minors and 658 women, according to the latest update from the Lebanese government, prior to these latest attacks.
Lebanon: “The US truce proposal is not acceptable”
The President of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, confirmed on Friday that he has received a proposal from the United States for a truce between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbulá, but indicated that “it is not acceptable” in its current terms.
“The US proposal includes a text that is not acceptable to Lebanon, which is the question of the formation of a committee to oversee the implementation of Resolution 1701 (which ended the war between Israel and Hezbula in 2006), which includes several Western countries,” he said in a written interview with the London-based Arab newspaper Al Sharq al Awsat.
Likewise, Berri – the main mediator figure in the truce, being the one in whom Hizbulá trusts for the negotiations – said that “the proposed alternative mechanism is currently being debated,” and that “the work is progressing, in an environment that is positive.”
“Americans and others know that it is unacceptable, and that it cannot even be discussed in principle, and that we cannot accept any violation of our sovereignty,” he said in reference to the “freedom of movement” of the Israeli Army in Lebanon.
He also denied that the proposal includes “the deployment of NATO or other forces” in the country.
Regarding the possible arrival of the envoy of the administration of US President Joe Biden, Amos Hochstein, pointed out that his visit to Beirut “depends on the development and progress of the negotiations,” without giving further details.
A French blue helmet dies in a traffic accident
A French blue helmet died this Friday in a traffic accident while traveling in a convoy to the headquarters of the UN mission in Lebanon (UNFIN) in Naqoura, in the south of the country.
According to a brief statement from the FINUL, which does not give details about the circumstances of the accident, three other Gallic members of the peacekeeping forces “suffered minor injuries.”
“This morning, a FINUL convoy heading to the FINUL headquarters in Naqoura was involved in a traffic accident on the coastal road, near the village of Shama,” the note says.
The victims were cared for by the staff of the peace mission and the Red Cross at the scene, according to the FINUL, who conveyed their condolences to the family of the deceased blue helmet and expressed their wishes that the injured recover soon.
International
Latin America will once again be in the sights of the United States with Rubio at the head of diplomacy
Marco Rubio, of Cuban origin and first Hispanic appointed as US Secretary of State, promises to redirect Washington’s attention to Latin America under a second term of Donald Trump, at a critical moment marked by the immigration issue and Chinese investments in the region.
The great campaign promise of the president-elect is to carry out the largest deportation in the history of the country, which anticipates that “Latin America will have the most central role in US foreign policy of the last 30 years,” says Brian Winter, expert of the Americas Society organization.
Latin America waiting for US actions.
At the head of US diplomacy, Rubio “will bring enormous attention to a region that the United States has overlooked on many occasions,” adds Henry Ziemer, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Considered a ‘hawk’ in foreign policy, this Florida senator born in Miami 53 years ago has distinguished himself for being a supporter of the hard line with China and Iran, as well as a strong defender of Israel.
He has also paid great attention to Latin America, being a strong supporter of US sanctions on Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, as well as being critical of the left-wing governments of Mexico and Colombia, and a supporter of Javier Milei’s Argentina.
“Rubio sees the region with a strong ideological spectrum: he divides it between left and right leaders, between rivals and friends,” Winter explains.
The unknown of Venezuela or the end of “Florida politics”
One of the unknowns that Trump’s team has not cleared is the policy it will maintain towards Venezuela, after the president, Nicolás Maduro, proclaimed his re-election in elections questioned by the international community.
During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, the Republican chose to apply maximum pressure on the Caribbean country with sanctions to overthrow Maduro, but the president is still in power and the crisis in the country has caused thousands of Venezuelans to migrate to the United States.
The main reason for the insistence on Venezuela was not so much a desire for interventionism but a desire to win votes in the key state of Florida, with an important population of Cuban and Venezuelan voters, Michael Shifter, former director of the Inter-American Dialogue analysis center, tells EFE.
US in search of accelerating deportations to Latin America
With the electorate in the state already solidly republican, Trump does not have that incentive now. On the contrary, the future president could try to “give in to Maduro and perhaps recognize him to reach an agreement on migration and give business opportunities to his friends” in the country with the largest oil reserves in the world.
The truth is that in order to deport Venezuelan migrants, against whom Trump has led a stigmatization campaign and promised mass deportations, the United States needs to reach an agreement with Venezuela, a country with which it has no diplomatic relations.
Joe Biden’s Administration resumed deportation flights after a brief pause in the oil sanctions imposed on the country.
According to Adam Isacson, an expert at the Washington Office for Latin America (WOLA) center, the other option to accelerate deportations would be to pressure Mexico, and other countries such as Colombia, to accept Venezuelan migrants.
Mexico and the review of the T-MEC
What seems very clear is that “Mexico will be at the forefront of the policies of the second Trump Administration in terms of both migration and the economy,” Ziemer highlights.
Washington is increasingly concerned about Chinese investments in strategic industries such as electric vehicles in Latin America and especially in Mexico, a country with which the United States has the T-MEC free trade agreement.
Trump himself said in the campaign that he wanted to open the T-MEC review process in 2026 and Rubio has been one of the legislators who has positioned himself most in favor of countering Chinese operations in the region.
The Republican, who already threatened Mexico with tariffs in his first term to force greater control of migratory flows, will use this letter again in trade negotiations.
“I don’t think the break of the agreement is the most likely way, but it is possible. Companies are underestimating it,” warns Winter.
Australia asks the population to write down their flatulence to study intestinal health
Israel bombs Lebanon again after a wave of attacks with dozens of dead
Latin America will once again be in the sights of the United States with Rubio at the head of diplomacy
Tec de Monterrey honors one of its students for his contribution to nanotechnology in medicine
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