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Donald Trump pulls on economics and geopolitics to reverse his negative trend in the polls

Former American President Donald Trump (2017-2021) bet this Thursday for a speech with a slow tone, a “amiable” mood in geopolitical terms and a content deeply focused on the economy at a crucial moment for the future of the November elections.

“Harris is a communist, he destroys everything he touches. If he takes office, his finances will suffer. Inflation will be our priority from day one,” Trump said in the first minute of a press conference from his private golf club in Bedminster (New Jersey).

The latest polls show that, since the Democratic Party named Vice President Kamala Harris as its candidate for the presidential elections, support for the former president has fallen and the notable advantage that distanced him from Joe Biden has almost vanished.

The latest update of the FiveThirtyEight poll average, carried out today, gives Harris approximately 46.4% of the national vote, compared to Trump’s 43.4%.

From the same golf club in which he took refuge after his assassination attempt last month, Trump appeared flanked by four shelves with basic food products and several dozen followers who enthusiastically applauded his proclamations.

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“We had mortgages at 2% and now they are at 10%. Every month, inflation costs Americans thousands of dollars. Only in food they are paying 148 dollars each month,” said the Republican candidate between cans of Campbell’s tomatoes, Cheerios cereals and packaged meat.

Trump described as “Kamala’s crash” the black day for the international stock exchanges on August 5 but, once the market was stabilized, he could not recycle the argument and limited himself to qualifying his hypothetical financial management as “a disaster for the United States.”

In addition, immigration was once again the origin of the main evils of the United States in a shrewed argument already for Trump, who said that “while this happens, millions of people cross the border and we don’t even know who they are.”

“Criminals, rapists and people with mental problems,” repeated the former president, claiming that many of them come from Latin America.

Trump referred to this region, and more specifically Venezuela, when he said that if Kamala Harris arrives at the White House he will apply what he called the “Maduro Plan” to impose economic policies “of Venezuela or the Soviet Union” in the United States “with disastrous consequences.”

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It was not the only foreign nation to which the tycoon alluded: he said that he will be “amiable” with Iran if he returns to the Oval Office and reiterated that during his mandate there was no open conflict in the Gaza Strip or a war in Ukraine because the international community “respected” it.

“I don’t want to misbehave with Iran. We are going to be friendly (…) I hope we are friendly, but they can’t have a nuclear weapon because once they have it, it’s a totally different world,” he said.

Shortly after, he explained that in his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July he urged him to end the war in Gaza, also corroborating that he has not had any recent conversation with him.

“I encounted him to end this. It has to end quickly. Get your victory and finish it. The massacre has to stop,” he said, about the meeting they held on July 26 in their mansion in Mar-a-Lago (Florida).

Trump tried to convey tranquility and confidence in defeating Harris, something that he said will be “easier than defeating Biden” but that does not agree with the nervousness and the way of proceeding of his campaign in recent days.

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The ambiguous label of “weird” about his running mate JD Vance has been one of the slabs that has fallen with the most weight, to which Trump responded today that the Democratic bench is “radical” and is “sick.”

“He is a great Yale student, a self-made man. I don’t know what it’s like to be weird for them,” he said.

Trump lavished himself for an hour and a half and then admitted several questions from the press, on the same day that Harris made his first joint public appearance with Joe Biden since he gave him the witness, celebrating a price control measure for patients in the Medicare health system.

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International

Foro Penal Reports 404 Political Prisoners Still Held in Venezuela

The Venezuelan human rights organization Foro Penal, which leads legal defense efforts for political prisoners in the country, reported on Wednesday that 404 people remain imprisoned for political reasons, five fewer than the figure released a week earlier. Among those detained are 39 foreign nationals or individuals with dual citizenship.

According to data published by the organization, the current total includes 369 men and 35 women being held on political grounds. The report also indicates that 225 of the detainees are civilians, including one teenager, while 179 are members of the military.

Foro Penal stated that 167 of the prisoners have been convicted, whereas 237 remain behind bars without a final sentence. The organization also noted that it has documented 19,102 politically motivated detentions in Venezuela since 2014.

The updated figures come amid an ongoing process of prisoner releases announced by Venezuelan authorities. Two weeks ago, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez said that approximately 300 detainees would be freed as part of a new round of releases, separate from those granted under an amnesty approved earlier this year.

Days later, acting President Delcy Rodríguez stated that the number of releases would reach 500 in the coming days. However, relatives of political prisoners and human rights organizations have questioned the pace of the process, arguing that the number of verified releases remains significantly lower than the figures announced by the government.

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Foro Penal has reported that dozens of prisoners have been released in recent weeks, but the organization maintains that hundreds of people continue to be detained for political reasons despite the government’s promises and the implementation of the amnesty process.

Families of detainees have continued to demand greater transparency regarding the release process, alleging that many of the promised excarcerations have yet to materialize and calling on authorities to provide clear information about those who remain in custody.

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International

Eight Bodies Found in Ecuador as Authorities Probe Link to Missing Persons Case

Ecuadorian police reported on Wednesday the discovery of eight bodies inside bags in a coastal area of southwestern Ecuador known as a strategic corridor for drug trafficking, as the country continues to grapple with an unprecedented wave of violence.

Authorities are now investigating whether the victims are the same eight people who disappeared on Sunday while traveling to complete a personal errand.

“We have confirmed that there are eight bodies,” said Colonel Galo Muñoz, the police chief for the area, during a press briefing. The bodies were found on the outskirts of the city of Babahoyo.

Interior Minister John Reimberg stated that investigators recovered a note near the bodies suggesting the killings may have been an attack carried out by the criminal organization Los Lobos against Los Choneros, two of Ecuador’s most powerful and violent criminal groups.

According to Muñoz, the bodies were wrapped and transported to a forensic center where specialists will work to establish their identities.

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Milagro prosecutor Modesto Freire said the condition of the remains has complicated the identification process.

“The victims’ faces cannot be seen because the bodies are inside bags,” Freire explained.

In a statement posted on social media, Ecuador’s Attorney General’s Office said investigators are collecting evidence to determine whether the remains correspond to the eight individuals reported missing on May 31.

The discovery underscores the ongoing security crisis in Ecuador, where escalating violence linked to organized crime and drug trafficking has become one of the country’s most pressing challenges.

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Central America

El Niño could intensify global climate risks, warns World Meteorological Organization

WHO warns of El Niño impacts in Latin America

Latin American countries, one of the regions in the world most affected by El Niño, must “take extreme precautions” and make use of so-called “climate intelligence” to mitigate the most severe impacts of the phenomenon, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Celeste Saulo, told EFE on Tuesday.

With a 90% probability, El Niño is expected to return in the second half of this year, and a strong intensity cannot be ruled out.

As a result, the phenomenon could trigger intense rainfall and flooding in some areas, while causing droughts in others, leading to direct impacts on communities and a wide range of economic sectors, including fishing and agriculture.

Saulo said countries in the region have improved their scientific and institutional capacity to monitor and respond to El Niño, as well as to understand how it interacts with other climate variables, including those linked to climate change, in order to better forecast “more or less severe impacts.”

When describing likely consequences in South and Central America, the Argentine scientist first referred to the “Coastal El Niño,” as the phenomenon is known in Peru and Ecuador.

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She explained that this event brings increased rainfall and ocean warming, which strongly affects the fishing industry.

She added that northern South America, Central America, and northeastern Brazil are typically exposed to below-normal rainfall or drought conditions. In past extreme episodes, El Niño has even affected the operational capacity of the Panama Canal and created serious water access and management challenges during severe droughts.

In contrast, southeastern South America—including southern Brazil, Paraguay, northern and northeastern Argentina, and Uruguay—can expect above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, severe storms, and landslides.

Given the potential for fear and misinformation among populations, Saulo urged people to “trust the institutions responsible for meteorological information,” stressing that national meteorological services are the official and authoritative sources in each country.

“These are the ultimate responsible authorities and the voices of expertise,” she emphasized.

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The most recent El Niño episode occurred between 2023 and 2024 and was among the five strongest ever recorded, contributing to record global temperatures.

The WMO chief noted that climate models remain uncertain about the intensity of the next El Niño, though more accurate forecasts are expected in the coming weeks.

While climate change has not been proven to increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, scientists do know that both can interact and amplify extreme weather impacts, potentially leading to natural disasters.

Although Latin America is often heavily affected, El Niño impacts can also be felt in North America, the Caribbean, central and eastern Africa, parts of Asia, and Australia.

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