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One month for the Trump vs Harris: US begins the countdown with the prevailing uncertainty

There is exactly one month left for the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of this leap year, the day on which the United States traditionally celebrates its presidential elections, and uncertainty reigns on the horizon. With Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump according to polls, the battle will be defined in the key states.

And it is on them that both candidates have focused their efforts in recent weeks and, presumably, they will do so during this month.

After passing through Georgia on Friday, one of the states affected by Hurricane Helene, this Saturday Trump visits Pennsylvania, the municipality of Butler, the place where on July 13 he was wounded in the ear by a gunshot in his first attempted attack.

And Harris, who broke into the campaign by surprise on July 21, after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, went to Michigan yesterday and today travels to North Carolina to receive information on the recovery tasks of the deadliest hurricane since Katrina in 2005, with more than two hundred deaths in the country.

These four, along with Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, are the key or hinged states, so tight their results will presumably be since their population is not of a marked political sign as happens in others such as California (democrat since the 90s) or Texas (republican since the 80s).

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In electoral language they are known as the ‘battleground states’ and it is there that the candidates fight hardest, with face-to-face acts, advertising and interviews with local media.

Looking for votes in county by county

In a media conversation on Friday, the president of the Democratic National Committee, Jaime Harrison, said that the party has been “on the ground since the first days of this campaign,” talking “to all voters in all the disputed electoral districts.”

The training has “312 offices in the states in dispute” and the annual investment in the state parties has been increased by 25%.

According to political scientist David McCuan, a professor at Sonoma State University, of the 3,100 existing counties in the United States “approximately 15 or 20 are the most important for the outcome of the presidential elections.”

That’s why in the campaign the focus is on names like Northampton or Erie, in Pennsylvania, Maricopa in Arizona or Gwinnett and Fulton in Georgia. “These are county-by-county elections, not even state by state, to reach 270 electoral votes,” he told EFE.

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And it is that in the United States citizens do not elect their president directly but through the 538 members of the Electoral College, who meet on a date after the elections to vote for the president based on what citizens choose at the polls.

Those 538 members are distributed proportionally according to the population among the 50 states and the District of Columbia and the most voted candidate takes all the voters, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska. To be president, one of the candidates must get 270 voters.

Polls show the close Trump-Harris battle in the elections

According to the FiveThirtyEight portal, which prepares an average among the polls for the elections, Harris is ahead of Trump by 48.4% compared to 45.9%, although in the key states the distance is much smaller.

An average of polls prepared by the New York Times gives victory to Harris in Pennsylvania (by less than one point), Nevada (1 point), Michigan (1 point) and Wisconsin (2 points). Meanwhile, Trump would achieve North Carolina (less than one point), Georgia (2 points) and Arizona (2 points).

For Lanae Erickson, political scientist at the Third Way think center, the level of participation will be key in these elections.

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“In 2016 many people stayed at home because they did not believe that Trump could win and they were not really motivated by any of the candidates,” while in 2020 “the Democrats came out en masse,” he tells EFE.

There Harris has an advantage, because after Biden’s abandonment many citizens see her as “the agent of change” that will make them go out to vote.

For Aaron Kall, political scientist and author of the book “Debating The Donald,” this will be a month in which “campaigns will intensify their work in terms of travel, interviews with the media and rallies.”

“I think the sense of urgency is finally reaching the campaigns since there will be no more opportunities for debates,” because the former president has not accepted a second debate with the Democrat after the defeat he suffered in the first and only of his clashes.

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International

North Korea amends its constitution and defines the South as a “hostile state”

North Korea confirmed some details about its recent constitutional amendment, where it has defined the South as a “hostile state”, in the first modification of its magna carta that eliminates references to a possible reunification.

“This is an inevitable and legitimate measure, in which South Korea is clearly defined as a hostile state, and it is due to the serious security circumstances that lead to the brink of war by the political and military provocations of hostile forces,” the North Korean state agency KCNA published today.

Changes in North Korea

Last week, North Korea concluded an important parliamentary session in which it was planned to amend its Constitution, but did not reveal any details about the changes then, although it did say that the vote had been held unanimously.

It was already expected that in this amendment references to reunification with the South would be removed and national borders would be redefined, as the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, had ordered.

Kim urged to reflect that the South – with which relations have been non-existent in the last five years – is the main national enemy, to eliminate clauses related to reunification and to clarify what the territorial limits of the country are, including the disputed western maritime border.

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Zero dialogues with the South

Experts believe that Kim’s desire to discard dialogue, formalize the existence of two clearly differentiated states in the peninsula and unilaterally define the northern borders can further worsen the terrible atmosphere that is breathed in the region.

Pyongyang’s constitutional amendment comes in a context of renewed resurgence of tensions with Seoul, after the latter’s Army fired shots south of the border with the North on Tuesday in response to the detonations used by the latter to destroy sections of roads in its territory that connect both countries.

The detonations occurred in northern sections of the Gyeongui and Donghae corridors and after Pyongyang announced last week that it was going to cut all transport routes to the neighboring country.

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International

Relatives of the Menéndez brothers press for their release

The family members of Erik and Lyle Menéndez, the brothers who are serving a life sentence for killing their parents in Beverly Hills more than 35 years ago, asked the Los Angeles Prosecutor’s Office on Wednesday to consider releasing them, after the new evidence that came to light in the case.

The brothers were sentenced in 1996 to life imprisonment for the murder of their parents, José and Kitty Menéndez, in a controversial case in which the young people reported being sexually abused by their father.

“I had no idea of the magnitude of the abuse they suffered at the hands of my brother-in-law. None of us knew,” Joan Andersen VanderMolen, Kitty Menéndez’s sister, said in a choppy voice at a press conference in Los Angeles where more than 20 family members attended.

Menéndez brothers, victims of abuse

The woman described the couple’s death as “tragic,” but warned that it is now known that the abuse “has lasting effects and that trauma victims sometimes act in ways that are very difficult to understand.”

He added that at the time of the trial “the whole world was not prepared to hear that boys could be raped … and today we know more.”

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For her part, Ana Maria Baralt, Erik and Lyle’s cousin and family spokesperson, said that “if the case had been heard today, with the understanding we have now about abuse and post-traumatic stress disorder, I have no doubt that the sentence would have been very different.”

Mark Geragos, the brothers’ lawyer, believes that the brothers must regain their freedom after the new evidence presented in the case to the office of the Los Angeles prosecutor, George Gascón.

The new tests

Among the new evidence is “a letter that one of the brothers allegedly sent to another family member confessing that he was a victim of abuse,” long before the murder.

Added to this are the statements of a member of the famous group Menudo, who claims that José Menéndez abused him on a visit to his home.

At the beginning of the month, Gascón said that although the Prosecutor’s Office maintains that the brothers committed the murders, it considers reviewing this evidence and making a decision on whether a new sentence is necessary.

After the crime, which occurred on the afternoon of August 20, 1989 at their home, located in a luxurious Beverly Hills neighborhood, with shotguns that they had bought days before the attack, the brothers told the authorities that they found the lifeless bodies of their parents after having spent the afternoon away from home.

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The details of the crime

The case gained special relevance when the brothers began to follow a life of luxury and excesses after accessing their father’s fortune, which raised the suspicions of the authorities.

Shortly after, Erik’s psychologist’s girlfriend warned the Police of the existence of recorded sessions in which she admitted and discussed her guilt.

Although the Prosecutor’s Office argued that they sought to inherit the family fortune, the brothers affirmed, and today they maintain, that their actions were due to a lifetime of physical, emotional and sexual abuse by their father.

The brothers’ lawyer, Mark Geragos, also highlighted today that during their time in prison the brothers created programs to advise and guide other inmates, and were part of the first class of 22 prisoners who obtained their university degree while they were imprisoned.

The family also opened a website to seek public support in the release of the two brothers, of Cuban roots.

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International

María Corina Machado denies Maduro and denies that he has fled to Spain: “I’m here in Venezuela”

The anti-Chavista leader María Corina Machado assured, in an interview with EVTV, that she is “in Venezuela,” with which she denies the Government of Nicolás Maduro, who had said shortly before that the former deputy “fled the country to Spain,” where the opponent Edmundo González Urrutia is exiled.

“Venezuelans know that I am here in Venezuela, people know it and Nicolás Maduro also knows it. What happens is that they are desperate to know where I am, and I am not going to give them that pleasure,” said Machado, who maintained that she and the citizens of the country are “here fighting and determined to advance to the end.”

On the other hand, the head of state, according to Machado, is in a “parallel universe surrounded by bodyguards” because “he knows that the people defeated him” in the presidential elections of July 28, in which the opponent asserts that González Urrutia was the “elected” candidate, despite the fact that the National Electoral Council (CNE) proclaimed Maduro the winner.

“María Corina Machado fled to Spain,” says the Government

Shortly before, the Government of Venezuela had assured that Machado “fled the country to Spain,” where the standard-bearer of the opposition coalition, Edmundo González Urrutia, considered the winner of the last presidential elections of July 28 by the Spanish Congress of Deputies, is exiled.

In a televised event, President Nicolás Maduro – proclaimed re-elected by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) – said that “the sayona” – as he usually refers to in a derogatory way to Machado – “also left” the country and “fled” to “a very good tavern there somewhere in Spain.”

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Although the head of state did not mention the name of the opponent, the Minister of Communication, Freddy Ñáñez, collected these statements and assured on Telegram that, according to the president, “María Corina Machado fled the country to Spain.”

Specifically, Maduro said: “I have a secret from you, but I don’t know, do you know how to keep a secret? (…) Who likes gossip? (…) It turns out that the old man (in reference to González Urrutia) left a month ago, (…) and the sayona also left, fled, fled, (…) left until the end, a very good tavern there in a place in Spain, (…) that’s where he got. Please don’t tell this to anyone.”

The ‘Sayona’ is a character who, according to Venezuelan oral literature, appears in the form of a specter and punishes unfaithful men.

Machado and González Urrutia

Last Monday, the president, without giving names or direct references, said that “she” had left the country, despite the fact that she has been banned from leaving the national territory since June 2014.

“Don’t tell anyone, he left the country, my sources tell me that he fled (…) they are cowards, they are good at sending messages of hatred and intolerance, but he left, his Gucci suitcases arrived and he left,” he said then, once again, without giving any name.

González Urrutia, leader of the main opposition coalition – the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) – arrived in Madrid on September 8, after requesting asylum due to the political and judicial “persecution” that he denounced having suffered in his country after the elections.

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After the departure of the opponent, Machado, who claims to be in “the clandestinity”, fearing for his “life” and “freedom”, reiterated that he will continue to fight from Venezuela, while González Urrutia will do so “from the outside.”

Likewise, on September 30, the former deputy, in her speech of gratitude by videoconference after having won the Václav Havel Human Rights Award, reiterated that she will “continue to fight alongside the Venezuelan people.”

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