International
Trump gains ground over Harris and the elections are emerging as the closest of the century
The Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump, has gained ground in the polls of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the selections of November 5 are emerging as the closest of the last century in the United States.
Harris’ candidacy, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially aroused great enthusiasm that was transferred to the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage when there are 16 days left until the elections.
According to the latest forecast of the FiveThiryEight portal based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump achieves a slight advantage over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 elections.
Despite the fact that the Democrat leads the intention to vote at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states grant a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.
Two weeks ago, the forecast of the same portal gave Harris a 58% chance to defeat Trump.
The difference between Harris and Trump
Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the chances of victory of each of the two candidates are practically equivalent to throwing a coin into the air.
The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.
In addition, at the national level, the vice president only takes two points ahead of the former president, a narrower difference than the margin between Biden and Trump on any of the days of the 2020 campaign.
After those elections, the Republican refused to accept his defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in court.
In 2000, the election result was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to Republican George W. Busch on the Democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.
But according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, to find elections as close as what the polls draw, we have to go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes beat the Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and the two candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote has already begun with a high turnout.
The rhetoric and the crossfire between the two has also intensified with attacks and insults.
Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranted.”
The vice president has decided to raise the tone against Trump in an attempt to revitalize her campaign, to which former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have also joined, and former first lady Michelle Obama to give her a new impetus.
The Republican is this Sunday in Pennsylvania, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having invented that he worked for that fast food chain as a young man.
For her part, the Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where tomorrow she will campaign with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congressman facing Trump.
International
At least 120 dead in the Gaza Strip in the last 48 hours from Israeli attacks
At least 120 Palestinians have died in the Gaza Strip in the last 48 hours from Israeli attacks and the death toll since the war began amounts to 44,176, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, controlled by Hamas.
In the case of the injured, the ministry confirmed 205 in the last two days and in total since the war began, on October 7, 2023, they total 104,473, according to that count.
In addition, it is estimated that there are 11,000 missing people under the rubble.
Offensive in Yabalia and Beit Lahia
Although fatalities have been recorded in different parts of the Strip, in the last 40 days Israel’s offensive has focused on the northern half, especially in the cities of Yabalia and Beit Lahia, with more than 2,300 dead since then, and more than 6,000 injured.
Kamal Adwan hospital has been attacked again after an Israeli drone destroyed the electric generator, water tank and oxygen tanks in the center yesterday, where 80 patients remain.
“It seems that there are no limits to the cruelty inflicted on the Palestinians in Gaza. For more than 40 days, the northern population is besieged: surrounded, bombed, deprived of the basic means of survival and forced to flee under threats,” denounced the head of the OCHA (UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs) office for Palestine, Jonathan Whittal.
Whittal said that his teams have been trying to access Yabalia, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanun, the most affected cities, for more than a month, but that the Israeli authorities have rejected all his requests.
“The result? People are under the rubble without being rescued. The sick and the wounded cannot reach the hospitals. Drinking water and food have run out. Lives have been lost,” he said.
International
At least 10 people died at the hands of strangers in a mosque in northern Afghanistan
At least 10 people were killed in an attack by unidentified armed men in a mosque in Baghlan province, in northern Afghanistan, Taliban government sources confirmed to EFE this Saturday.
The attack in the Nahrin district of Baghlan, northern Afghanistan, took place on Thursday night, according to Taliban government deputy spokesman Hamdullah Fitrat.
“Unfortunately, before last night (Thursday night) in a mosque and on a pilgrimage during the night, ten people who stayed for worship were killed by strangers,” he said.
Sufi communities in Afghanistan often spend nights in mosques as a worship practice.
Research to identify the authors
Fitrat assured that investigations are being carried out to identify and bring the perpetrators to justice for this “horrible incident,” for which no armed group has claimed authorship.
“The Islamic Emirate strongly condemns this terrible act and considers it an unforgivable crime,” added Fitrat, who blames extremist groups.
“This act was committed by those extremist groups that have no respect for the blood of other Muslims,” he condemned.
In the last three years, since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, the Afghan branch of the jihadist group Islamic State- has claimed responsibility for a series of attacks on minorities and members of the Taliban, becoming the country’s greatest security threat.
Minority groups such as the Hazara Shiite community and Sufi practitioners have been frequent targets of violence by extremist groups that try to impose a rigid interpretation of Islam.
The Taliban de facto government has insistently denied that the Islamic State is a security threat to Afghanistan or any other country, while the regime’s secrecy and iron controls on the press have cut off the flow of information on the country’s security situation.
International
Ukraine attacks the port of Berdyansk with missiles, according to pro-Russian authorities
The Ukrainian army attacked the port of Berdiansk, in the Sea of Azov, with missiles on Saturday, according to the pro-Russian authorities of the Zaporyy region today.
“The enemy perpetrated an attack with guided missiles against the port of Berdiansk. The fires caused by the impact have been suffocated,” reported the governor imposed by Moscow, Yevgueni Balitski, on his Telegram channel.
The governor, who was recently received in Moscow by Russian President Vladimir Putin, stressed that the attack did not cause injuries among the civilian population and did not interrupt the work of the port facilities.
In turn, he assured that anti-aircraft defenses continue to be on maximum alert, since new Ukrainian attacks against the city are not ruled out.
At the end of October Kiev had already attacked the strategic port under Russian control since 2022 with a dead old woman.
The Russian army controls more than 70% of Zaporiyia and tries to take control of the rest of the region as it advances at forced marches in neighboring Donetsk.
North Korean soldiers in the Belgorod region, according to Ukraine
Ukraine claims that North Korean soldiers, who until now were only in the Russian region of Kursk, were also transferred to Belgorod, which borders the northeastern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv.
“Some soldiers from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea were transferred to the border of the Belgorod region,” the head of the Central Intelligence Department of the National Security and Defense Council, Andrí Kovalenko, wrote on Telegram.
The senior Ukrainian official stressed that “they are not in the Kharkiv region,” as some US media had reported based on Ukrainian sources.
The Kremlin rules out a second onde of mobilization
For its part, the Kremlin today ruled out a second wave of mobilization of reservists to fight in Ukraine with a view to the fourth year of fighting in the neighboring country.
“Our citizens very actively sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense,” Dmitri Peskov, presidential spokesman, told the official agency RIA Novosti.
Peskov stressed that volunteers carry out courses in which they are instructed “consciously,” so “now there is no need to talk about mobilization.”
“There are many, hundreds who sign contracts every day,” he added.
The Kremlin has refrained from declaring a new partial mobilization after the first one in September 2022 caused great popular discontent and the exodus of hundreds of thousands of military-age men.
1,000 days of combat
Fighting in Ukraine reached 1,000 days this week with Russian forces advancing in forced marches in the Donbas, although Moscow has not yet been able to expel Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
Ukraine hopes to slow down the current Russian offensive with Western authorization to use American and British long-range missiles against targets in Russian territory, which Kiev used against the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
Russia responded on Thursday by launching an Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile at an arms factory in the Ukrainian region of Dnipro.
In addition, on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that there will be more launches and announced the mass production of those new generation missiles capable of circumventing any Western missile shield.
At least 120 dead in the Gaza Strip in the last 48 hours from Israeli attacks
At least 10 people died at the hands of strangers in a mosque in northern Afghanistan
Ukraine attacks the port of Berdyansk with missiles, according to pro-Russian authorities
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