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Keys to the political crisis in Germany: What will happen after the breakup of the coalition government?

The breakup of the coalition government in Germany opens the way to early elections once the head of government, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, does not overcome the motion of confidence scheduled for January 15, as expected.

These are the keys to the path established and detailed in the German Basic Law towards early elections, which will probably take place in the spring if the date of the motion of confidence is not advanced, as the opposition has already demanded.

– In accordance with article 68 of the Basic Law, the chancellor, as announced on Wednesday, will request a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on January 15, with the expectation that the Lower House will not give it to him and thus early elections will be called that the social democrat Scholz hopes will be favorable to him.

– The chancellor may then ask the president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dissolve the Bundestag and will have a maximum period of 21 days to do so.

Once Parliament is dissolved, new elections must be held within a maximum period of 60 days. In this case at the end of March or beginning of April.

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A government in office

– After the dissolution of the Bundestag, the chancellor and his ministers will continue to hold their respective positions in office.

The three portfolios occupied by the Liberals that are empty after the dismissal of the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, and the departure by his own decision of those of Justice, Marco Buschmann, and Education, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, could be assumed by other ministers, although the chancellor can propose different successors.

The fourth portfolio occupied by the liberals, that of Transport and Digital Affairs, will continue at the personal request of Scholz in the hands of Wolfgang Wissing, who announced that he is leaving his party so that his decision does not involve a burden.

– However, with the dissolution of the Bundestag and the call for new elections, political activity will be paralyzed, since the parties will immediately switch to campaign mode. This could be relevant to the 2025 federal budget if it is not approved, which is most likely.

Then the so-called provisional budgetary management would come into force and only from January it will be possible to incur expenses for which there is a legal obligation.

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The vote of confidence

– In the history of the Federal Republic, only four chancellors submitted to a vote of confidence, although only two of them sought, as the Basic Law intends with this option, to obtain the vote of confidence, while three others pursued precisely the opposite: not achieving a majority.

In 1982, Social Democratic Chancellor Helmut Schmidt submitted to a vote of confidence to calm a coalition crisis, although that same year he lost a motion of censure. In 2001, Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder used the vote of confidence to secure the approval of the controversial deployment of the Bundeswehr – the armed forces – in Afghanistan.

On three occasions, however, the vote of confidence was a maneuver to pave the way for early elections: in 1972, by Social Democratic Chancellor Willi Brandt; in 1982 by Conservative Chancellor Helmut Kohl; and in 2005 by Schröder.

The first two managed to strengthen their coalitions with this maneuver, but in the case of Schröder, his party lost the elections in favor of the conservatives, who took over the government with Angela Merkel.

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International

Seven bodies found with signs of torture in Sinaloa

Mexican authorities discovered seven lifeless bodies on Wednesday, showing clear signs of torture, in the rural area of Culiacán, Sinaloa, just one day after the same number of bodies was found in several municipalities in the western state of Mexico.

Six of these seven victims were found along the side of the highway that connects Culiacán to Mazatlán, near Laguna de Canachi, according to local media reports, which also noted that messages addressed to a criminal group were found near the bodies.

This brings the total number of violent deaths in the region to seven within just 24 hours. On Tuesday, authorities reported more victims found in the municipalities of Culiacán, Elota, and Mazatlán.

Among the victims identified was a local cattle rancher named Ramón Velázquez Ontiveros, as well as a police officer from Mazatlán, who was killed by a motorcyclist outside his home in San Marcos.

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International

Málaga paralyzed by new storm as torrential rains hit Spain

Thousands of people were evacuated and trains were suspended as torrential rains once again struck Spain on Wednesday, following the devastating floods that killed at least 223 people two weeks ago, most of them in the Valencia region.

The national meteorological agency (Aemet) issued a maximum, red-level alert for the Andalusian province of Málaga in the south, and for Tarragona in the northeast, due to the new DANA (isolated depression at high levels), also known as a cold drop.

The city of Málaga appeared to be the hardest hit by the rains, with more than 3,000 people evacuated from 1,000 homes near rivers, flooded streets, and the suspension of urban transport and train services to Madrid.

“Today Málaga is paralyzed,” said Andalusia’s regional president, Juan Manuel Moreno, to reporters. “I know it is a problem for citizens not being able to take their children to school or go to work, but after what we saw in Valencia, we need to ‘prevent’ and minimize the impact in terms of loss of life,” he added.

The storm also led to the postponement of a match between Spain and Poland in the Billie Jean King Cup women’s tennis competition, which was scheduled for Wednesday afternoon in Málaga.

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Hezbollah launches explosive drone strike on Israel’s defense headquarters

The Lebanese Islamist movement Hezbollah claimed on Wednesday that it launched an attack with explosive drones against the Israeli army’s headquarters in Tel Aviv.

The Iran-backed organization reported in a statement that it had carried out “an aerial attack with a squadron of explosive drones” targeting the site that houses Israel’s main defense institutions.

Hezbollah later stated that it also fired a barrage of rockets at the Glilot military intelligence base in the suburbs of Tel Aviv.

The Israeli military indicated that “sirens sounded in several areas of northern and central Israel following the launch of projectiles from Lebanon.”

It later clarified that “five projectiles were identified over the territory, and some were intercepted.”

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