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Analyst León Valencia: The ELN subordinated peace to its plan to seize the border

Analyst León Valencia, director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (Pares), states in an interview with EFE that the guerrilla of the National Liberation Army (ELN) “subordinated” the peace negotiations with the Government to a plan to seize the Colombian-Venezuelan border.

“They subordinated peace to their strategy of seizing the border. Really what they have shown at this time is that their main objective is to have control of that border, grow on that border and be the master of the border between Colombia and Venezuela,” says Valencia, who in his youth was a member of the ELN.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced on January 17 the suspension of peace talks with the ELN, which he accused of committing “war crimes” in the Catatumbo region, where a confrontation between that guerrilla and the Front 33 of the FARC dissidents has left at least 56 dead and more than 54,000 displaced since January 16.

In that sense, the director of Pares, who analyzes everything that happens with the ELN in the book ‘Is lead what’s coming?’ (Penguin Randon House), considers that the fact that the guerrillas are facing another “armed left” group and not the Military Forces claims that “their main idea is to seize that border, fighting against the other illegals”.

The analyst, one of the greatest experts on the Colombian armed conflict, believes that the guerrilla has offered itself as “a support force” to the Chavista leader Nicolás Maduro “in the event of a foreign aggression” on Venezuela.

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Valencia says that the guerrillas allied with the Venezuelan Government in 2019 to “sweep the paramilitaries” that were at the border, a successful operation because at that time, according to Pares figures, there were 27 armed groups there and only a few remain.

However, something that the ELN did not count on, in Valencia’s opinion, is that Petro did not cut off relations with Maduro after his questioned possession on January 10, which has led both countries to work together to face guerrilla violence on the common border of 2,219 kilometers.

“That is a little out of place for them, (they thought that Petro) was going to break relations with Venezuela and that Maduro was going to face (the President of the United States, Donald) Trump very hard and that Trump was also going to act immediately against Venezuela. Now the thing is temporarily very strange,” he says.

The main bet of the Petro Government was the policy of ‘Total Peace’, with which it sought to negotiate an agreement with the ELN and FARC dissidents, as well as the submission to justice of the main criminal gangs in the country.

However, with 18 months to go until the end of his mandate, the most advanced negotiation was that of the ELN and the president’s proposal seems to be shipwrecked.

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In Valencia’s opinion, it is difficult to understand why the guerrillas are not signing peace with the first left-wing government in Colombia, although he believes that Petro was wrong to think that “ideology” and having “a similar speech” was going to be enough to disarm the ELN.

“The conflict changed radically, which is what we say in our book ‘Is lead what’s coming?’. We make an X-ray of the change in the conflict of some guerrillas who threatened the State and wanted to take central power and who are no longer in that now,” he explains.

Neither the ELN nor the FARC dissidents seek, as they intended before, to take power, but now “they are on the borders, in the regions, occupying territories, controlling the population, attacking the population, they are in something else”.

“There is a turn of the conflict and the ELN is in it. He gave up the seizure of power and is more in a task that they call resistance, they declare it publicly (…) It is a resistance of the ‘global south’, which is a series of groups and countries that have ideas of revolution, that have autocratic governments and are in something else,” says Valencia.

In this context, the director of Pares warns that the Military Forces and the Police must make a “very big operational change.”

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“The intelligence that was made to look for where the ELN comes from, where the FARC come from to attack the State is no longer useful. Where do these groups go to seize a border, a region, how do they attack the population? It is another type of intelligence and it is what the State is not doing,” Valencia concludes.

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International

IICA to strengthen prevention efforts against cattle tick disease with $250K investment

The Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) announced on Friday that it will allocate $250,000 to deepen and strengthen actions for the prevention, control, and eradication of the cattle tick in Central America.

IICA’s Director-General, Manuel Otero, explained that the funds will support the strategy to combat the disease in 2025, focusing on two key areas: strengthening communication campaigns, awareness, and health education; and improving case reporting, notification, and the purchase of sampling kits and authorized healing products to ensure a more effective response in the region.

“It is an endemic disease present across the continent and requires more investment, more surveillance, more training, and more institutional support. It is a very strong enemy that affects the quality of life for our cattle producers and threatens our exports,” Otero said during a meeting with Agriculture Ministers from the region.

The initiative is carried out in collaboration with the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and aims to enhance the understanding and knowledge of the disease among various stakeholders.

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International

Milei: Social justice promotes hostility, incompatible with progress

President Javier Milei spoke on Friday at the headquarters of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in Washington, D.C., United States. In the first part of his speech, he stated that “social justice is an abomination.” His address, delivered amidst the crypto scandal and titled “The Argentine Economic Model,” came after the libertarian leader visited the headquarters of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the second time this year, where he met with Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to finalize details of the new program through which the government hopes to accelerate economic recovery and ease currency controls.

Throughout his speech, the president praised his ministers, particularly Economy Minister Luis Caputo and the head of the Ministry of Transformation, Federico Sturzenegger, whom he highlighted for his “Chainsaw 2.0” plan, referring to budget cuts within the state. Additionally, Milei forecasted further deregulation and criticized an economic group that “benefited” from the ban on exporting scrap metal.

As he began his address, the President claimed that “he avoided hyperinflation of 17,000% per year” due to the strong fiscal adjustment he implemented at the start of his administration. He highlighted several key indicators of his government’s performance while continuing to praise his ministers. He then turned his attention to the concept of social justice. “Because if the wealth creator is punished and the complainer is given money, the incentive is to complain and not work, which creates an incentive system incompatible with progress,” he argued.

“It has consequences on the quality of life in society, but not due to its economic damage, but because of the relationship between people. Promoting a society of envy makes society hostile, where there is constant conflict over a supposed class struggle because one person generates wealth and it is stolen. It is as if one is living in a permanent war,” he insisted.

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International

Trump says Zelensky’s presence in peace talks makes it “difficult” to reach agreements

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Friday that his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, “is not that important” to be present in meetings aimed at ending the conflict, arguing that his participation makes it “very difficult to finalize agreements.”

“I don’t think it’s important for him to be in the meetings,” emphasized the magnate during a radio interview with TV host Brian Kilmeade on the Fox News channel, adding that Zelensky had been present in negotiations “for three years” without any results.

The president called last week’s visit by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Kyiv a “waste of time,” as he tried to secure an agreement on the exploitation of Ukraine’s natural resources. Zelensky rejected the offer presented by Bessent, which would have granted the U.S. access to 50% of Ukraine’s strategic minerals in exchange for American support during the war, as well as future assistance for Kyiv.

In return, Zelensky offered to open the door to U.S. “investments.” In a media interview, Secretary of State Marco Rubio explicitly included this rejection of Bessent’s plan as one of the main reasons for Trump’s frustration with Zelensky.

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