The future of Honduras’ diplomatic relations with China—or a possible reestablishment of ties with Taiwan—will hinge on the results of the presidential election taking place this Sunday, November 30. The ruling left-wing party is seeking to remain in power, while conservative parties aim to return to government.

If the ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada of the Liberty and Refoundation (Libre) Party, secures victory, Honduras is expected to deepen its relationship with China. The country established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing in March 2023, cutting relations with Taiwan entirely under President Xiomara Castro.

However, the bilateral trade relationship with China has not yielded the expected benefits. Economic Development Minister Fredis Cerrato acknowledged that negotiating with Beijing has proven challenging. “We are proceeding with caution,” he said, referring to ongoing efforts to secure better conditions for Honduran exporters and business owners, who are demanding greater speed in technical agreements.

With Castro’s term ending in just two months, the long-anticipated free trade agreement with China has yet to be finalized. Despite this, Chinese companies have already secured multimillion-dollar contracts in infrastructure projects across the country, particularly in the energy sector.

On Friday, President Donald Trump granted a pardon to former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández — who was convicted on drug trafficking charges — and threatened to cut U.S. aid to the Central American nation if his preferred candidate loses Sunday’s presidential election.

Trump announced the pardon for Hernández, who is currently serving a 45-year prison sentence in the United States, through a post on social media.

In the same message, the former U.S. president voiced his support for Nasry Asfura, the candidate representing Hernández’s right-wing party in the Honduran elections.

“If he doesn’t win, the United States will not waste any more money, because the wrong leader can only bring catastrophic results to a country, no matter which one it is,” Trump wrote on his platform Truth Social.

Asfura, a 67-year-old construction magnate and former mayor of Honduras’s capital, is competing in a tight race against attorney Rixi Moncada of the ruling leftist Libre party and television host Salvador Nasralla of the right-leaning Liberal Party.

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The United States government urged members of the Organization of American States (OAS) on Tuesday to support a transparent electoral process in Honduras, free from intimidation, interference, or fraud, just days before the general elections scheduled for this Sunday.

The call was made by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau during an extraordinary session of the OAS Permanent Council. The meeting was convened at the request of the United States in response to reports of irregularities marking the final stretch of Honduras’ electoral process. Landau expressed concern over the situation in the country, warning that Honduras is facing an institutional crisis. “I fear that Honduras faces an uncertain future. Therefore, I urge you to use your collective voice to warn Honduran officials about the consequences of interfering in the electoral process,” he stated.

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed its support for electoral integrity and called on Hondurans to exercise their right to vote. “We hear you and we stand with you. Go out and vote on November 30 to be part of the democratic future of this country,” Landau said in Spanish during his remarks.

In response, Honduras’ ambassador to the OAS, Roberto Quesada, rejected the allegations and said there is no evidence of election-related crimes. “We are surprised that a Permanent Council meeting was called when no crime has been committed,” the diplomat said, dismissing reports of repression against journalists. “These narratives are invented because, as we know, fake news runs wild on the internet,” he added.

The session was also requested by Argentina, Ecuador, and Paraguay, whose governments expressed concern over the direction of the Honduran elections.

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The process has been questioned due to the actions of the Public Ministry and the Armed Forces, both accused of interfering in matters under the exclusive authority of the National Electoral Council (CNE). The Attorney General’s Office has opened investigations into senior electoral officials, while the military has been accused of improperly intervening in civilian affairs.

Marlon Ochoa, a CNE councilor, maintained that despite the pressure, “general elections will be held despite the conspiracy that has been attempted against the electoral process,” and confirmed that all logistical materials are ready.

Colombia’s ambassador, Luis Vargas, announced that his country will provide “accompaniment” during the election, while Argentina’s representative, Carlos Bernardo, stressed that “there is no room for rigged electoral processes” in the region.

The main presidential contenders are Rixi Moncada of the Libre party, Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party, and Nasry Asfura of the National Party.

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