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Rising Argentine inflation ends 2021 over 50%

AFP

Argentine inflation continued to rise in 2021, ending the year at more than 50 percent, the state statistics institute said on Thursday,

It was grim news for the South American country, given cumulative inflation in 2020 — a year when the economy was almost paralyzed by the Covid-19 pandemic — was just 36 percent.

The largest price increases in 2021 were in hotels and restaurants (65.4 percent), transport (57.6) and food (50.3).

“During 2021, the government tried to anchor inflation and to do so basically used the regulation of the price of utility rates and the exchange rate,” Hernan Fletcher of the Argentine Center of Economic Policy, told AFP.

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“Although it certainly was not a success, without this, inflation would have been higher.”

Since 2019, Argentina has imposed ever stricter currency exchange controls, meaning citizens can only withdraw $200 a month at the official rate.

For 2022, the government predicted in its budget — which was rejected by the opposition-dominated parliament — an inflation of 33 percent.

Opposition figures derided the budget as unrealistic.

According to a Central Bank survey, inflation in 2022 will be 55 percent.

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The news comes with the government embroiled in a tricky renegotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the repayment structure of a $44 billion loan agreed in 2018.

Argentina is due to pay back $19 billion to the IMF this year, another $20 billion in 2023 and $4 billion the following year.

Yet analysts estimate that the country has just $4 billion in international reserves.

“A deal with the IMF could improve the economy in terms of expectations, but in terms of inflation I don’t see 2022 being very different to 2021,” said economist Pablo Tigani.

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International

U.S. strike in Caracas killed 32 cuban security officers, experts say surprise was crucial

Two days after a U.S. military attack on a military complex in Caracas, Havana confirmed that 32 members of its security forces were killed in the operation, some of whom were likely responsible for protecting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The Venezuelan government also reported that 23 of its own military personnel died during the assault.

Of the Cuban dead, 21 belonged to the Ministry of the Interior, which oversees intelligence services, and 11 were from the Revolutionary Armed Forces. No official information has been released regarding potential injuries.

Experts consulted by AFP agreed that the element of surprise was the key to the success of the U.S. military operation, which was meticulously prepared over months and kept entirely secret. “Cuban intelligence … convinced the Maduro regime and its security agencies that the United States would never attack Venezuelan territory,” explained José Gustavo Arocha, a former Venezuelan army officer and expert at the Center for a Secure Free Society, a U.S. defense think tank.

Fulton Armstrong, a former U.S. intelligence officer and Latin America researcher at American University in Washington, also highlighted the failure to anticipate the attack and to detect U.S. helicopters entering Venezuelan airspace, noting that even a five- to ten-minute warning could have made a significant difference for the guards and for Maduro.

U.S. forces additionally benefited from “incredible” real-time intelligence provided by stealth drones to monitor movements of the Venezuelan leader, according to experts. A highly sophisticated combat team was deployed, and analysts believe the order to “fire to kill” was likely given.

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Paul Hare, former British ambassador to Cuba and Venezuela, added that Cuban intelligence also underestimated the extent of U.S. access to internal cooperation within Venezuela’s security apparatus, contributing to the operation’s success.

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International

Report: Vatican mediation included russian asylum offer ahead of Maduro’s capture

The Vatican reportedly attempted to negotiate an offer of asylum in Russia for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro before his capture by U.S. forces last Saturday, according to The Washington Post.

The U.S. newspaper reported that Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin spoke with U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See Brian Burch about a supposed Russian proposal to grant Maduro asylum. A source familiar with the offer said that what was proposed “was that he would leave and be able to enjoy his money,” and that part of the plan involved Russian President Vladimir Putin guaranteeing Maduro’s security.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, the United States carried out a military operation that resulted in Maduro’s capture and detention, along with his wife Cilia Flores, who are now being held in New York on narcoterrorism charges.

The Washington Post also noted that U.S. President Donald Trump may have invited Maduro to Washington for in-person discussions about safe conduct, an offer that Maduro reportedly declined.

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International

Pope Leo XIV warns of rising “war enthusiasm” in global politics

“War is becoming fashionable again, and war enthusiasm is spreading.” Pope Leo XIV delivered a somber assessment of international politics on Friday, sharply criticizing the growing reliance on force by nations at a time when his country of birth is increasing military displays.

While offering New Year’s greetings to the diplomatic corps, the U.S.-born pope — who also holds Peruvian nationality — delivered one of his strongest speeches to date, denouncing the “worrying weakening of multilateralism” and the emergence of what he described as “war enthusiasm.”

From the outset of his address to ambassadors accredited to the Holy See, delivered in English, the pontiff lamented the rise of a “diplomacy of force, by individuals or groups of allied states,” at the expense of dialogue, warning that such trends threaten the global order established after World War II.

“Peace is no longer sought as a gift or as a good desirable in itself, or as the pursuit of ‘the establishment of an order willed by God, one that entails greater justice among human beings.’ Instead, it is pursued through weapons as a condition for asserting one’s own dominance,” the head of the Catholic Church said, without directly naming any country.

His remarks come amid ongoing conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and in the Gaza Strip, and against a broader international backdrop marked by European concerns over a potential U.S. takeover of Greenland, the autonomous Danish territory, a scenario that could threaten the cohesion of NATO.

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