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IMF sees heavy hit to German economy from Russian gas stop

AFP

Halting Russian gas supplies to Germany would cost Europe’s largest economy 1.5 percent of its GDP in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, as concerns mount that Moscow will further squeeze supply.

This year’s loss would be followed by a negative impact of 2.7 percent in 2023 and a 0.4-percent reduction in 2024, according to an IMF forecast where gas deliveries were assumed to have stopped on June 1.

A potential shutoff “could cause sizable reductions in German economic activity and increases in inflation”, the IMF said in a statement.

Supplies to Germany from Russia are currently at zero as the Nord Stream pipeline undergoes maintenance, after Moscow initially slashed deliveries by 60 percent in mid-June citing a delayed gas turbine repair.

Berlin has rejected Gazprom’s turbine explanation and believes Russia is squeezing supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

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Works on the pipeline are due to finish Thursday, with officials watching closely to see if and at what levels supplies resume.

The risks for the economy from a complete shutdown, as well as a weak global economy and widespread supply bottlenecks “loom large”, the IMF said.

The same headwinds meant that German “growth is likely to be muted in the coming quarters”, it said.

In its standard forecast, the IMF sees the German economy growing by 1.2 percent in 2022 and just 0.8 percent in 2023.

Meanwhile, the rising price of energy associated with the gas supply reductions already seen also meant that inflation is “likely to remain elevated in the next two years”, the IMF said.

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The IMF forecast inflation in Germany to sit at 7.7 percent in 2022 and 4.8 percent in 2023.

A complete Russian gas shut-off could potentially increase those figures by up to two percentage points in 2022 and 3.5 percentage points in 2023 in an “extreme” scenario where Europe struggles to source alternative supplies, it said.

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China celebrates the call between Trump and Putin and affirms that dialogue is the “only way out” of the war in Ukraine

China said on Thursday that the dialogue is “the only way out” to the war in Ukraine and held the talks held on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump and Russia President Vladimir Putin, who agreed to start “negotiations immediately” to end the conflict.

“Russia and the United States are influential powers and we welcome them strengthening the dialogue. Regarding Ukraine, dialogue is the only way out of the crisis. From the beginning, Chinese President Xi Jinping has advocated for peace talks,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said at a press conference.

The spokesman added that China “will continue to make efforts” for peace and that it will play “a constructive role” to end the European conflict.

He also reiterated that China supports “any effort that leads to peace” and emphasized that the Asian country hopes to “maintain communication with all parties” for this purpose.

The possibility of Russia and Ukraine starting peace negotiations for the first time in almost three years of war multiplies after that call between Trump and Putin, to which we must add the one made by the American with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

This Friday, the US Vice President, J.D. Vance, will meet on the margins of the Munich Security Conference, which will be attended by China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, China has maintained an ambiguous position from which it has called for respect for “the territorial integrity of all countries”, including Ukraine, and attention to the “legitimate concerns of all countries”, in reference to Russia.

Beijing has opposed “unilateral” sanctions against Moscow and advocated for “a de-escalation and a political solution”. However, the West has accused China of supporting the Russian military campaign, something it has always denied, and of supplying Putin with key components he needs to produce weapons.

In addition, European countries have repeatedly asked Chinese leader Xi Jinping to use his influence on Putin to end the conflict, but the Asian country has given priority to strengthening its relations with Russia, a country from which it imports oil and gas at a lower cost.

China has limited itself to presenting peace initiatives that have had a lukewarm reception in the West, such as the plan it presented last year together with Brazil that did not include the withdrawal of Russian troops and that was rejected by Kiev.

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International

More than 400,000 migrants passed the Darién in 2024, according to the Colombian Ombudsman’s Office

More than 400,000 migrants, most of them Venezuelans, passed through the Darién Tapón, the natural border of Colombia and Panama, reported this Friday by the Ombudsman’s Office in 2024, which warned about the high risks of sexual and gender violence that women and adolescents can suffer.

According to the monitoring carried out by the Ombudsman’s Office, in 2024 there were a total of 400,612 migrants crossing the Urabá and Darién region in Colombia.

The figure was known in a bilateral hearing of the ombudsman, Iris Marín, with the Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Migrants, Madi Gehad.

The Ombudsman’s Office detailed in a statement that most migrants are from Venezuela (302,185), followed by those from Ecuador (22,785), Colombia (17,529), Haiti (17,329), China (12,214) and India (6,927).

Of this total, 126,151 are women, 195,369 men and 72,092 boys, girls, adolescents and young people.

The Ombudsman’s Office also warned of the “special vulnerability of women, girls and adolescents, who face high risks of sexual and gender violence.”

In addition, they found deficiencies in the mechanisms to verify the kinship of minors with accompanying adults, increasing the danger of human trafficking and exploitation.

The entity highlighted the return of migrants by the National Border Service of Panama (Senafront), which has forced many people to use more dangerous routes.

Added to this is the recent issuance in Panama of a decree imposing sanctions on those who enter irregularly from Colombia, which could aggravate the humanitarian crisis at the border.

The National Migration Service (SNM) reported on February 1 that the flow of irregular migrants entering through the dangerous Darién jungle marked a “historic” drop of 94% last January, compared to the same period in 2024.

According to the comparative figures published by the entity, in January of this year 2,158 migrants entered the Darién, compared to the 34,839 who did so in the same period of 2024.

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Paraguayan president Santiago Peña meets Venezuela’s opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia in Washington

The President of Paraguay, Santiago Peña, met this Sunday in Washington with opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, to whom he reiterated his “support for the transition process in Venezuela,” following Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration as president of the Caribbean country amid questioning of his victory by the opposition and the international community.

This was reported by the Paraguayan presidency in a press release, which highlighted that Peña “had a meeting with the elected president of Venezuela, Edmundo González Urrutia,” one day before both leaders were to attend the inauguration of the next U.S. president, Donald Trump.

“Peña reaffirmed his commitment to democracy and expressed his support for the transition process in Venezuela,” and also “highlighted the importance of working with the international community to contribute to the restoration of democracy,” the statement added.

González Urrutia, whom the majority of Venezuela’s opposition, grouped in the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), recognizes as the winner of the July 28 presidential election, expressed feeling the support of Paraguay and regional countries.

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