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Lula keeps big lead over Bolsonaro in new Brazil presidential poll

AFP

A new poll ahead of Brazil’s presidential election in October shows former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintaining a significant lead over Jair Bolsonaro, but the right-wing incumbent is gaining ground.

Forty-seven percent of those surveyed by the Datafolha consulting firm said they intended to vote for Lula, the 76-year-old leftist leader, in the first round election on October 2, the same result as last month’s poll.

That represents a 15-point lead over the far-right Bolsonaro (32 percent), which is slightly narrower than the 18-point gap last month, but a significant jump over the 21-point spread in May.

Lula’s strong showing in the poll means there is a small chance he could ultimately receive over 50 percent in the first round, avoiding a runoff against 67-year-old Bolsonaro.

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If the election does advance to a second round, on October 30, the poll shows Lula beating Bolsonaro with 54 percent of the vote.

The two candidates, running in the most polarized presidential race in decades, are far ahead of any third-party challengers — although center-left Ciro Gomes received seven percent in the poll.

Though the two front-runners have been campaigning for months, the official launch was on Tuesday.

Bolsonaro started with a rally in Juiz de Fora, where he was stabbed in 2018, while Lula, a former union leader, chose a car factory in Sao Bernardo do Campo as his symbolic backdrop.

Datafolha said it interviewed 5,744 people between last Tuesday and this Thursday in 281 Brazilian cities and its results include a margin of error of +/- 2 points.

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International

Paraguay summons Brazilian ambassador over Itaipú espionage scandal

Paraguay summoned the Brazilian ambassador in Asunción on Tuesday to demand “explanations” and called its own representative in Brasília for consultations following Brazil’s acknowledgment of an espionage operation. The Brazilian government, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, attributed the operation to the previous administration.

The surveillance effort aimed to uncover Paraguay’s position in now-suspended negotiations with Brazil regarding the pricing of electricity from the binational Itaipú hydroelectric plant, according to reports in the Brazilian press.

The Brazilian government “categorically denied any involvement in the intelligence operation,” stating in a Foreign Ministry communiqué on Monday that the espionage was carried out under former President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration (2019-2023).

“The operation was authorized by the previous government in June 2022 and was annulled by the interim director of the (state intelligence agency) ABIN on March 27, 2023, as soon as the current administration became aware of it,” Brazil’s government asserted.

Paraguay’s Foreign Minister Rubén Ramírez announced that Brazilian Ambassador José Antonio Marcondes de Carvalho was summoned “to provide detailed explanations” regarding the operation. Additionally, Paraguay recalled its diplomatic representative in Brasília “to report on aspects related to the intelligence activity conducted by Brazil regarding Paraguay’s government affairs.”

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Elon Musk to step down as government advisor, per Trump insiders

President Donald Trump has informed his inner circle that Elon Musk will be stepping down from his role as a government advisor, according to a report by Politico today.

Citing three individuals close to Trump, Politico states that the president is pleased with Musk’s leadership at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he has implemented significant budget cuts. However, both have agreed that it is time for Musk to return to his businesses and support Trump from a different position outside the government.

A senior administration official told Politico that Musk will likely maintain an informal advisory role and continue to be an occasional visitor to the White House. Another source warned that anyone thinking Musk will completely disappear from Trump’s circle is “deluding themselves.”

According to the sources, this transition is expected to coincide with the end of Musk’s tenure as a “special government employee,” a temporary status that exempts him from certain ethics and conflict-of-interest regulations. This 130-day period is set to expire in late May or early June.

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International

Milei vows to make Argentina so strong that Falkland Islanders “choose” to join

Argentine President Javier Milei reaffirmed his country’s claim over the Falkland Islands (known as the Islas Malvinas in Argentina) and praised the role of the nation’s armed forces during a ceremony marking the “Veterans and Fallen Soldiers of the Malvinas War Day,” commemorating 43 years since the 1982 conflict with the United Kingdom.

Argentina continues to assert sovereignty over the islands, arguing that Britain unlawfully seized them in 1833.

“If sovereignty over the Malvinas is the issue, we have always made it clear that the most important vote is the one cast with one’s feet. We hope that one day, the Malvinas residents will choose to vote with their feet and join us,” Milei stated.

“That is why we aim to become a global power—so much so that they would prefer to be Argentine, making deterrence or persuasion unnecessary. This is why we have embarked on a path of liberation, working to make Argentina the freest country in the world and once again the nation with the highest GDP per capita on the planet,” he added.

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