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Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know

AFP

Fresh fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan rebels has broken a five-month truce that had paved the way for the resumption of humanitarian aid and tentative peace efforts.

The facts behind the sudden return to conflict in northern Ethiopia remain sparse. Here’s what we know so far and the questions that still linger:

– How did it happen? –

As has been the case throughout the 21-month conflict, both sides have accused each other of starting the fight and violating the truce that had been in place since late March.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said government forces and their allies launched a “large-scale” offensive towards southern Tigray at 5 am (0200 GMT) on Wednesday.

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But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government said it was the rebels who struck first.

The tit-for-tat claims could not be independently verified as access to northern Ethiopia is severely restricted.

Later in the day, Ethiopia’s air force announced it had downed a plane carrying weapons for the TPLF that had entered its airspace via Sudan, a claim the rebels dismissed as a “blatant lie”.

– What does this mean for peace efforts? –

Regardless of who initiated Wednesday’s clashes, the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation appear grim, analysts say.

Even before the latest eruption of violence, the two sides were already at odds over the question of who should mediate potential negotiations. 

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The Abiy government wants the African Union’s Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace talks while the TPLF has been pushing for Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta to broker dialogue.

They have also sparred over the restoration of basic services such as electricity, communications and banking to Tigray — a key precondition for dialogue according to the TPLF.

The government on the other hand says federal service providers cannot work inside Tigray without a “secure environment”.

The Eurasia Group political risk consultancy flagged “the pre-emptive recruitment and training of troops by both camps” — an indication that neither side had put much stock in peace negotiations.

“Amid a resurgence in fighting, neither party will be willing to reduce their leverage for future talks by compromising on key issues,” said Eurasia’s Africa analyst Connor Vasey.

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“Rather, they will likely aim to use the next phase of fighting to bolster their negotiating positions,” he said, setting the stage for an escalation in violence.

– How will humanitarian aid be affected? –

Prior to the truce, no aid had reached Tigray by road for three months, leaving the region of six million in desperate need of food.

Even after convoys resumed, fuel shortages have made it difficult for aid workers to distribute supplies.

Last week, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that nearly half the population in Tigray was suffering from a severe lack of food and rates of malnutrition had “skyrocketed”.

The return to conflict will worsen an already dire situation.

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On Wednesday, the UN said the rebels had “forcibly entered” a WFP warehouse in Tigray’s capital Mekele that morning and taken a dozen tankers carrying 570,000 litres of fuel intended for emergency relief operations.

“Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL,” WFP chief David Beasley said on Twitter.

– Is this a full-blown return to war? –

In recent weeks, both warring parties appear to have simultaneously broached the possibility of peace while also making preparations for a potential return to conflict.

Whether the latest conflagration leads to all-out war will depend on which view prevails, with analysts urging the international community to play a more active role in bringing both players to the negotiating table.

In a statement dated August 23, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the rebels had participated in “two rounds of confidential face-to-face” meetings with top Ethiopian officials, the first acknowledgement by either side of direct talks. 

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The government has not confirmed the existence of such talks, but last week an official committee tasked with looking into negotiations called for a formal ceasefire in a proposal it planned to submit to the AU.

The eruption of hostilities is “a deafening warning to the key international and regional actors that they must immediately ensure peace talks actually occur”, said William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.

“They should accordingly instruct the belligerents to issue all of their demands when at the negotiating table, rather than making them preconditions for talks.”

Diplomatic efforts in the past have run into trouble.

The TPLF has accused Obasanjo of being biased in favour of the government, and Addis Ababa in turn has chastised US and EU envoys for urging a resumption of basic services to Tigray, reflecting the scale of the challenge ahead.

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International

Mexico requests extradition of ‘Mini Lic’ for murder of journalist Javier Valdez

The Mexican government has requested the extradition of Dámaso López Serrano, a former high-ranking member of the Sinaloa Cartel, who is accused of masterminding the 2017 murder of Mexican journalist Javier Valdez, the Attorney General’s Office announced on Tuesday.

López Serrano, known as “Mini Lic,” was arrested last Friday in Virginia, United States, on charges of fentanyl trafficking, a crime he committed while on parole.

“This is the key issue for us, he [López Serrano] is the mastermind of this murder. The rest of the perpetrators are already processed and in jail, he was the one missing,” said Attorney General Alejandro Gertz.

“We immediately made the extradition request,” the official added during the routine morning press conference of President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Valdez, an award-winning reporter specializing in drug trafficking and correspondent for AFP and the newspaper La Jornada, was murdered on May 15, 2017, in front of the office of his magazine Riodoce in Culiacán, the capital of Sinaloa state.

“Mini Lic” was originally arrested in 2017 when he voluntarily turned himself in to U.S. authorities and pleaded guilty to trafficking methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine. In 2022, he was released on parole.

Gertz confirmed that the Mexican Attorney General’s Office had requested López Serrano’s extradition “countless times,” but Washington had declined to act on the request because he had become a “protected witness” for the U.S. government and “was providing a lot of information.”

“Now, with this situation where they themselves are acknowledging that this individual is still committing crimes, I think there are more than enough reasons for them to support us,” the prosecutor added.

The Sinaloa Cartel is one of the largest drug trafficking organizations in Mexico and was founded by Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, who is serving a life sentence in the United States.

Culiacán has been shaken by a wave of murders since the arrest of Ismael “Mayo” Zambada, another key leader of the cartel alongside Guzmán, on July 25 in New Mexico, United States.

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International

Cuba’s government stresses openness to serious, respectful U.S. relations

Cuba reiterated on Tuesday its willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States, just weeks before Republican President Donald Trump assumes office. During his first term, Trump halted the historic rapprochement between the two countries, which had been initiated just ten years earlier by Democrat Barack Obama.

“It will not be Cuba that proposes or takes the initiative to suspend the existing dialogues, to suspend the existing cooperation. Not even the discreet exchanges on some sensitive issues,” said Cuban Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernández de Cossío at a press conference in Havana.

“We will be attentive to the attitude of the new government, but Cuba’s stance will remain the same as it has been for the last 64 years. We are willing to develop a serious, respectful relationship with the United States, one that protects the sovereign interests of both countries,” he added.

His statements come on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the historic rapprochement announcement between Washington and Havana.

On December 17, 2014, Cuban leader Raúl Castro (2006-2021) and Barack Obama (2008-2016) announced the beginning of a thaw in relations, which led to the restoration of diplomatic ties in 2015, after more than half a century of confrontation.

This process of thawing bilateral relations was later halted by businessman Donald Trump, who significantly reinforced economic sanctions against the communist-ruled country. The Republican will return to the White House on January 20.

Cuba, under a U.S. trade embargo since 1962, was re-listed in 2021 on the “blacklist of countries supporting terrorism,” blocking financial and economic flows to the island of 10 million inhabitants.

Subsequently, the administration of current Democratic President Joe Biden made only slight adjustments to the sanctions and also kept Cuba on this list. However, his administration resumed bilateral contacts with Havana on migration issues and the fight against terrorism.

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International

Mexican government to use church atriums for gun surrender program to combat violence

The atriums of Mexican Catholic churches will be used for the voluntary surrender of weapons in exchange for economic and legal incentives as part of a plan announced on Tuesday by the government to reduce violence.

According to the Mexican government, there is a link between the illegal trafficking of weapons—almost entirely coming from the United States—and the spiral of criminal violence that has plagued the country since late 2006, when a controversial military anti-drug offensive was launched.

“The idea is to set up areas in the church atriums where people can voluntarily surrender their weapons, and in return, they will receive financial resources based on the weapon they are turning in,” explained President Claudia Sheinbaum during her regular press conference.

The left-wing leader emphasized that the program, called “Yes to Disarmament, Yes to Peace,” guarantees that those who surrender their weapons will not face any “investigation.”

“What we want is to disarm. This will be implemented next year. We also did it in Mexico City, and it had significant results,” added the former mayor of the capital, with a population of 9.2 million.

The disarmament plan is part of the government’s “comprehensive security strategy,” one of whose pillars is promoting a culture of peace, especially in regions severely affected by organized crime violence, Sheinbaum pointed out.

More than 450,000 people have been murdered in Mexico since the government launched its military-led anti-drug operation, alongside about 100,000 people who have gone missing.

Despite being a secular state, the Mexican Catholic Church has played a key role in efforts to contain violence, with priests acting as mediators between citizens and criminals. Several clergy members have been killed for this cause.

Just last week, the Catholic hierarchy called on cartels to declare a truce in their violent actions during the celebration of the Virgin of Guadalupe on December 12 and the upcoming Christmas holidays.

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