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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

“Promises delivered”: Milei celebrates milestone and pushes ahead with structural reforms

Argentine President Javier Milei marked the second anniversary of his victory in the November 19, 2023 presidential election on Wednesday, declaring that he has fulfilled “every campaign promise” even before reaching the halfway point of his term.

In a message posted on his official X account, Milei stated that his administration set out from day one to implement its political program without concessions. “We have dedicated ourselves to fulfilling every campaign promise, to the point that they were completed in less than two years, despite the entire status quo’s obstruction machine,” the president wrote.

Milei won the runoff election with 55.65% of the vote, defeating then–Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who received 44.35%. He officially took office on December 10, 2023, describing himself as the “first libertarian liberal president in the history of humanity.”

The head of state also highlighted the performance of his party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), in the October 26 legislative elections, where it secured more than 40% of the votes. This result, he said, gives him the momentum to advance toward a new phase of “structural reforms.”

“We renew our commitment to all Argentines to implement all second-generation reforms so that, once and for all, we enter the path that will make Argentina great again,” Milei wrote, reaffirming his push for a deep transformation of the country’s economic model.

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During his presidential campaign, Milei pledged to drastically shrink the size of the state, carry out sweeping labor and tax reforms, and radically overhaul economic policy through a “fiscal shock” plan aimed at controlling inflation and achieving a budget surplus.

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International

Haitian authorities mobilize nationwide as gangs threaten confrontation with police

Haiti’s National Police (PNH) declared a state of maximum alert after the leader of the Viv Ansanm armed coalition, Jimmy Chérizier — known as “Barbecue” — urged the population to stay indoors amid the prospect of clashes with security forces carrying out an offensive against gang groups.

The threats came days after the PNH, the Haitian Armed Forces (FAD’H), and the Gang Suppression Force (GSF) launched a large-scale operation against the 400 Mawozo gang, which for years has controlled and kidnapped residents in Tabarre and Croix-des-Bouquets, north of the capital.

The police announced the suspension of all vacations and leave for officers “in order to mobilize all police personnel, with the goal of ensuring optimal security for the population and responding to any eventuality.” Authorities reported that operations will continue specifically in Croix-des-Bouquets, territory controlled by 400 Mawozo under the command of Lanmò Sanjou.

In recent days, security forces located and raided several hideouts used by criminal groups, managing to kill or force the retreat of gang members from strategic areas. Police Director General Vladimir Paraison visited the barracks of the units involved in the operations to express his “appreciation for the courage and commitment of the police in their relentless battles to restore order and uphold the law.”

Chérizier — for whom the United States has offered a $5 million reward — urged citizens on Sunday to remain in their homes so the gangs could confront police forces and “avoid becoming victims.”

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“The time has come, Haitian people, to unite to liberate this country,” he declared in a message shared on social media.

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International

U.S. House poised to approve bill requiring declassification of Epstein files

A group of lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives said on Tuesday that a bill requiring the Department of Justice to declassify documents related to the case of billionaire Jeffrey Epstein is expected to pass with “overwhelming” support.

Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, the sponsor of the proposal, urged the Senate not to allow delays or amendments. “I expect it to pass by an overwhelming majority in the House. I don’t want politicians playing games with this. They need to pass it in the Senate without changes,” he said from Capitol Hill, joined by Republicans Thomas Massie, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and several Epstein victims.

The vote is scheduled for Tuesday at 2:00 p.m. local time, after 218 lawmakers from both parties forced House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring the measure to the floor.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been criticized by Democrats for his past friendship with Epstein, stated that he would sign the bill if it passes both chambers of Congress. His support came after a shift in his position, following his name appearing in leaked documents.

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a frequent ally of the president, publicly confronted Trump in recent days over the issue. Standing alongside several Epstein victims, she defended her backing of the bill despite Trump calling her a “traitor.” “These women have fought the most horrible battle that no woman should ever have to fight (…) even against the president of the United States,” she said.

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Taylor Greene added that the “real test” will be whether the Department of Justice complies with releasing the documents once the bill is enacted. “Or everything will remain sealed under the pretext of ongoing investigations,” she warned.

Haley Robson, one of the victims, also spoke during the press event. “I’m traumatized, I’m not stupid,” she said firmly, arguing that attempts by certain sectors to delay the process have caused tremendous emotional harm. “This is not political. This is America. This is the land of freedom,” she stated.

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