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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Mexico City Mayor Invites U2 to Perform at Iconic Zócalo Plaza

Irish rock band U2, which spent Tuesday and Wednesday filming a new music video for its song Street of Dreams in the Historic Center of Mexico City, received an invitation to perform at the capital’s iconic Zócalo square from Mayor Clara Brugada.

Brugada shared the invitation through social media posts accompanied by photos and a video showing her meeting with the band members.

“This is an invitation for you to perform in our wonderful public square, the Zócalo. You are welcome here, and we would love to have you,” Brugada said in the video while handing a document to Bono, the band’s lead singer.

Bono responded by saying that the group would like “to begin its new tour in Mexico City.”

Referencing one of the band’s most famous songs, In the Name of Love, Brugada said she was greeting Bono along with The Edge, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen Jr..

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“Welcoming U2 to our capital means celebrating music, connection and the emotion that can be felt in every corner of this city,” Brugada wrote in one of her messages. “We are a city open to the world, vibrant and full of stories shared from the stage to the streets.”

She also described the Zócalo as “the country’s most important public square” and a cultural landmark for Latin America.

Over the years, the Zócalo has hosted massive concerts by internationally renowned artists and bands including Roger Waters, Paul McCartney, Manu Chao, Café Tacvba, Los Fabulosos Cadillacs, Los Tigres del Norte, La Maldita Vecindad, Silvio Rodríguez, Joan Manuel Serrat, Rosalía and Shakira, drawing hundreds of thousands of fans.

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International

Marco Rubio Urges China to Help Restrain Iran Amid Gulf Tensions

Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Washington hopes to persuade China to take a more active role in stopping Iran from escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, arguing that the crisis directly threatens Asian commercial interests.

“It is in China’s interest to resolve this situation. We hope to convince them to play a more active role in getting Iran to stop what it is doing now and trying to do in the Persian Gulf,” Rubio said during an interview with journalist Sean Hannity on Fox News while traveling aboard Air Force One.

The top U.S. diplomat said the conflict and concerns over the possible disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have already affected China’s interests.

Rubio noted that “a Chinese cargo ship was struck over the weekend,” referring to the exchange of attacks reported last Friday between Iran and the United States.

The remarks come amid growing international concern over rising tensions in the region and the potential impact on global trade routes and energy supplies.

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International

Trump floats Vance-Rubio potential Republican ticket for 2028 election

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubiocould potentially form a Republican presidential ticket for the 2028 elections.

Speaking during a dinner with law enforcement officials as part of National Police Week, Trump publicly praised both officials and said they could make “an ideal team” for the next presidential race.

“Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?” Trump asked attendees before adding that the pair “sound like a good combination.”

The president highlighted his vice president’s performance in office, stating that their current partnership has been highly effective. “JD is perfect, that has been a perfect formula,” Trump told reporters later.

He further suggested that a Vance-Rubio pairing could represent a strong presidential and vice-presidential ticket, although he stopped short of offering any formal endorsement.

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“I think it sounds like a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate,” he said, while clarifying that his remarks should not be interpreted as an official backing of any future campaign.

So far, neither Vance nor Rubio has publicly confirmed any intention to run in the 2028 presidential election.

Rubio previously sought the Republican nomination in 2016 but withdrew after losing the primary race to Trump. Later, in a December 2025 interview with Vanity Fair, he said he would be among the first to support Vance if he decided to run for the White House.

Vance, meanwhile, has recently dismissed speculation of any political rivalry with Rubio amid growing discussion about potential future GOP leadership.

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