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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

New York Announces First 2,000 Seats in Universal 2-K Program

The Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani took another step today in their universal early education agenda by announcing the communities that will have access to the first 2,000 seats in the new 2-K program this fall — an initiative backed by a $73 million investment.

The funding is part of the $1.2 billion package previously unveiled by Hochul to strengthen child care and early childhood education across the city, one of the key campaign promises of the now Social Democratic mayor.

At the time of the announcement, the governor also outlined additional funds to reinforce the existing 3-K early education infrastructure, a program launched under former Mayor Bill de Blasio (2014–2021).

When the 2-K initiative was introduced in January, Mayor Mamdani explained that its first phase would offer 2,000 seats, with the goal of eventually expanding into a universal program — a commitment supported by the governor.

State investment in child care and preschool services is expected to increase to $4.5 billion by fiscal year 2027.

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Among the first communities set to benefit from the 2,000 seats are Upper Manhattan and Inwood — areas with large Dominican populations — as well as Fordham and Kingsbridge in the Bronx, a borough with a Latino majority.

In East Brooklyn, Canarsie, Brownsville, and Ocean Hill will also be included. Meanwhile, Ozone Park and the Rockaways are among the neighborhoods that will see the rollout of the 2-K program.

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International

Warner Bros. Developing First ‘Game of Thrones’ Movie With ‘Andor’ Writer

Warner Bros. is developing the first feature film based on the hit saga Game of Thrones, with Beau Willimon — screenwriter of Andor — attached to direct, according to a report published Tuesday by Page Six.

The project, currently in early development, will focus on the conquest of King Aegon I Targaryen. A separate television adaptation centered on the same historical storyline within the franchise is also in early stages at HBO.

However, the outlet noted that it remains unclear whether the film will move forward following the recent acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Skydance.

If the merger is finalized, the movie could potentially be shelved, although that scenario appears unlikely given that the Game of Thrones franchise remains one of HBO’s most valuable and beloved properties.

After six seasons adapting the work of George R. R. Martin, the platform expanded the universe with House of the Dragon, a prequel series set 200 years before the events of Game of Thrones that explores the history of House Targaryen.

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Spain’s Prime Minister to Address Nation Amid Trump’s Trade Threats

The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, will deliver an institutional address this Wednesday at the Moncloa Palace regarding the escalating situation in the Middle East and recent threats directed at Spain by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Spanish government announced that Sánchez will make a statement at 9:00 a.m. local time to outline his position on the latest developments following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Sánchez is expected to reiterate Spain’s reasons for opposing the use of U.S. military bases on Spanish soil in the operation—an action he has already described as being outside international law—while also expressing criticism of the Iranian regime.

Government sources indicated that the address had been planned prior to Trump’s remarks criticizing Spain’s stance. However, following those comments, Sánchez is now also expected to respond directly to the U.S. president’s statements.

Trump has threatened to “cut all trade with Spain” and said he wants “nothing to do” with the country after Madrid refused to authorize the use of the Morón and Rota military bases in southern Spain for operations against Tehran.

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The U.S. president also labeled Spain “a terrible NATO partner” and warned that “no one” would tell him he could not use the facilities.

In response, the Spanish government stated that Spain fulfills its commitments to NATO and European defense. It also warned Trump that any review of bilateral trade relations must respect international law and the agreements in place between the European Union and the United States.

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