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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Trump floats Vance-Rubio potential Republican ticket for 2028 election

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubiocould potentially form a Republican presidential ticket for the 2028 elections.

Speaking during a dinner with law enforcement officials as part of National Police Week, Trump publicly praised both officials and said they could make “an ideal team” for the next presidential race.

“Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?” Trump asked attendees before adding that the pair “sound like a good combination.”

The president highlighted his vice president’s performance in office, stating that their current partnership has been highly effective. “JD is perfect, that has been a perfect formula,” Trump told reporters later.

He further suggested that a Vance-Rubio pairing could represent a strong presidential and vice-presidential ticket, although he stopped short of offering any formal endorsement.

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“I think it sounds like a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate,” he said, while clarifying that his remarks should not be interpreted as an official backing of any future campaign.

So far, neither Vance nor Rubio has publicly confirmed any intention to run in the 2028 presidential election.

Rubio previously sought the Republican nomination in 2016 but withdrew after losing the primary race to Trump. Later, in a December 2025 interview with Vanity Fair, he said he would be among the first to support Vance if he decided to run for the White House.

Vance, meanwhile, has recently dismissed speculation of any political rivalry with Rubio amid growing discussion about potential future GOP leadership.

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International

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Violating Victory Day Truce

Russia accused Ukraine on Saturday of violating a Victory Day truce that was reportedly agreed with mediation from the United States, claiming that Ukrainian forces carried out attacks on Russian territory as well as on the annexed Crimean peninsula.

Despite the declared ceasefire, the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian military positions using attack drones and artillery.

According to the ministry, Ukrainian forces made twelve attempts to advance toward Russian-held positions across several sectors of the front line.

It also alleged that Ukrainian strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Crimea, several border regions, the Caucasus, and other areas including Moscow and Perm in the Ural region.

The Defense Ministry estimated around 8,900 violations of the ceasefire in total, including more than 7,000 drone attacks and over 1,000 strikes involving tanks, artillery, multiple rocket launch systems, and mortars since the truce came into effect at midnight.

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Russia said its forces responded “symmetrically” to what it described as violations by Ukrainian troops.

Earlier, the Kremlin denied claims that Ukraine attempted to sabotage a military parade in Red Square marking the 81st anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

“No attempts were made. Everything went well,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told local media.

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International

Trump Says U.S.-Iran Talks Progressing, Signals Possible Deal on Strait of Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Washington is holding “very good” talks with Iran and stated that there is a strong possibility of reaching an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“We’ve had very good conversations over the last 44 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll reach an agreement,” Trump said during an event held in the Oval Office at the White House.

The president’s remarks came just hours after he announced a temporary suspension of the military operation aimed at escorting vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf due to Iran’s blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Trump explained that the pause in operations is intended to facilitate diplomatic negotiations between both sides and prevent further military escalation in the region.

“We’re in good shape, and right now things are going well. Now we have to achieve what we need to achieve. If we don’t, we’ll have to go much further,” the Republican president warned.

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In a post published on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump reiterated that if Iran accepts Washington’s proposed conditions, military operations and the naval blockade affecting the Islamic republic would come to an end.

However, he also issued a new warning to the Iranian government, stating that the United States would respond with attacks “of greater intensity” if Tehran rejects the agreement promoted by the White House.

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