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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Trump says GOP ‘learned a lot’ after democratic election wins

U.S. President Donald Trump said that he and the Republican Party “learned a lot” from the Democratic victories in Tuesday’s state and local elections. He also compared Democrats to “kamikaze pilots” over the ongoing budget standoff.

Speaking at an event with Republican senators on Wednesday, Trump described the results as an unexpected setback.

“These were very Democratic areas, but I don’t think it was good for Republicans. In fact, I don’t think it was good for anyone. But we had an interesting night and we learned a lot,” he said during remarks broadcast by the White House.

Trump agreed with pollsters that two key factors led to Republican losses in New York’s mayoral race and the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia.

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International

Bolivia’s Jeanine Áñez freed after Supreme Court annuls her conviction

Former Bolivian interim president Jeanine Áñez was released from a women’s prison in La Paz on Thursday, where she had spent more than four and a half years for an alleged coup, after her conviction was annulled, AFP journalists confirmed.

Dozens of supporters and family members gathered outside the facility to celebrate her release. Áñez left the prison waving a Bolivian flag around 15:00 GMT.

“It is comforting to see that justice will once again prevail in Bolivia. She was the only woman who took on the role with bravery and courage,” said Lizeth Maure, a 46-year-old nurse who had come to show her support.

Áñez, a 58-year-old lawyer and conservative politician, governed Bolivia for nearly a year until November 2020, when she handed power to leftist leader Luis Arce.

She was arrested in 2021 and sentenced the following year to 10 years in prison for “resolutions contrary to the Constitution,” accused of illegally assuming the presidency after Evo Morales resigned in 2019 amid social unrest.

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Her sentence was overturned on Wednesday by the Supreme Court of Justice, Bolivia’s highest judicial authority.

The court ruled that Áñez should have been subjected to a “trial of responsibilities” before Congress— a constitutional process reserved for sitting presidents, vice presidents, ministers, and top judges — rather than prosecuted in an ordinary criminal court.

As she was welcomed by relatives and supporters upon release, Áñez declared:
“I feel the satisfaction of having fulfilled my duty to my country, of never having bowed down. And I will never regret having served Bolivia when it needed me.”

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International

Peru declares Mexico’s president Persona Non Grata over political asylum dispute

Peru’s Congress declared Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum persona non grata on Thursday, accusing her of “unacceptable interference in internal affairs” after granting political asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betssy Chávez.

The motion, introduced by right-wing parties, passed with 63 votes in favor, 33 against, and two abstentions. Lawmakers argue that Sheinbaum has maintained a hostile stance toward Peru since taking office.

Peru severed diplomatic relations with Mexico on Monday following the asylum decision. Chávez, who is facing charges for her alleged involvement in former President Pedro Castillo’s failed coup attempt in December 2022, remains under protection at the Mexican embassy residence in Lima.

Following the diplomatic break, interim President José Jerí said on X that Mexico’s chargé d’affaires in Peru, Karla Ornela, has been notified by the foreign ministry that she must leave the country within a strict deadline.

The Mexican government condemned Lima’s decision as “excessive and disproportionate,” asserting that offering asylum to Chávez is a legitimate act grounded in international law and does not constitute interference in Peru’s domestic matters.

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