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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

White House considered dropping leaflets over Caracas to pressure Maduro

The White House recently proposed a plan to drop leaflets from U.S. military aircraft over Caracas to further pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by The Washington Post.

The operation — which as of Saturday had not yet been authorized — considered dropping the leaflets this Sunday, the day of Maduro’s 63rd birthday. The materials were expected to highlight the $50 million reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, a bounty the White House doubled in August on the grounds that the Venezuelan leader is involved in “narcoterrorism.”

The proposal represents an escalation in Washington’s efforts to oust Maduro, a goal Trump pursued during his first term (2017–2021) and one that remains a priority for several of his top advisers.

Since the summer, the United States has carried out a large-scale military deployment in the southern Caribbean aimed at pressuring Maduro and, according to the White House, combating drug trafficking. This operation has resulted in the destruction of roughly twenty boats allegedly carrying narcotics and the deaths of 83 people on board.

In mid-November, Trump said he had made a decision regarding a possible military action in Venezuela, further raising tensions with Caracas.

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On Friday, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an advisory urging commercial flights to “exercise extreme caution” when flying over Venezuela and the southern Caribbean due to the “potentially hazardous situation” linked to increased military activity in the region.

This prompted several European and American airlines to cancel flights to the Caribbean nation.

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International

Trump attacks Europe and Biden on Truth Social ahead of talks on Ukraine peace plan

In a message posted on Truth Social, the U.S. president also targeted European nations, “which continue buying oil from Russia,” as well as his predecessor, Joe Biden, whom he accused of inaction at the start of the conflict.

“I inherited a war that never should have happened, a war in which everyone is losing,” the president wrote in all caps on his social media platform.

“The Ukrainian leaders have shown zero gratitude for our efforts, and Europe keeps buying oil from Russia.”

“The United States continues to sell massive quantities of weapons to NATO for distribution to Ukraine (corrupt Joe gave everything away — free, free, free — including large sums of money!),” he added.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with a Ukrainian delegation in Geneva this Sunday in hopes of advancing Trump’s plan for Ukraine.

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Washington now presents Trump’s 28-point proposal as a “framework for negotiations” aimed at ending the conflict, though it is viewed with concern in both Kyiv and Brussels.

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International

Tatiana Schlossberg reveals aggressive leukemia diagnosis in personal New Yorker essay

In a deeply personal essay published in The New Yorker, Tatiana Schlossberg revealed her diagnosis: acute myeloid leukemia with a rare genetic mutation known as Inversion 3, a variant that responds poorly to standard treatments.

The 35-year-old journalist explained that the disease was discovered shortly after the birth of her second daughter in May 2024, when doctors detected an extremely high white blood cell count. Schlossberg said she was in complete shock upon receiving the diagnosis, noting that she “didn’t feel sick” and had experienced a healthy pregnancy.

Her treatment since then has been intense. She has undergone chemotherapy, at least two bone marrow transplants, and is participating in clinical trials involving CAR-T therapy, an advanced form of immunotherapy. In one of these trials, her doctors told her they might be able to “keep [her] alive for a year, maybe less.”

Schlossberg reflected on her fears for her children, her husband, George Moran, and her parents, and on the emotional weight of becoming part of the Kennedy family’s long history of tragedy. She also criticized her cousin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for political decisions that she argues have harmed medical research that could benefit cancer patients like her.

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