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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Bill Gates to testify before Congress over Epstein connections

Bill Gates is set to testify on June 10 before a congressional committee in United States investigating links connected to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, a source familiar with the matter told AFP on Tuesday.

The Microsoft co-founder is among several high-profile figures named in documents released by the Department of Justice, which detail alleged close associations, questionable financial dealings, and private photographs involving Epstein.

According to a spokesperson cited by Politico, Gates “welcomes” the opportunity to appear before the committee. The representative emphasized that Gates “never attended or participated in any illegal activities with Epstein” and is prepared to answer questions to support the investigation.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation did not immediately respond to AFP’s request for comment.

In late February, Gates told members of his foundation’s board that his association with Epstein was a “huge mistake.” He has consistently denied any involvement in the financier’s criminal activities. Epstein died by suicide in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking minors.

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“I did nothing illegal. I saw nothing illegal,” Gates said, according to a recording obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

Gates acknowledged that his relationship with Epstein began in 2011, three years after Epstein pleaded guilty to soliciting prostitution from a minor.

A draft email written by Epstein and released by the Department of Justice referenced alleged extramarital relationships involving Gates. The message, which was apparently never sent, claimed that Epstein had helped “Bill” obtain medication related to encounters with Russian women.

Gates admitted to having had two extramarital affairs but denied any involvement with Epstein’s victims.

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International

Former Trump allies call for removal, cite 25th Amendment amid Iran threats

Former allies of U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for his removal from office, arguing he is unfit to continue in the role following recent threats to “wipe out an entire civilization,” made just hours before the deadline of his ultimatum to Iran.

One of the most prominent voices was former Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who invoked the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution as a mechanism to remove the president from power.

“25th Amendment! Not a single bomb has fallen on the U.S. We cannot annihilate an entire civilization. This is evil and insanity,” Greene wrote on social media platform X.

Greene, once a leading figure within Trump’s political movement during his first term, broke with the president last November over disagreements on foreign policy and his handling of controversial cases.

Another former supporter, controversial commentator Alex Jones, also raised the possibility of applying the constitutional provision during his show, in a conversation with attorney Robert Barnes.

Barnes explained that invoking the 25th Amendment requires the support of two-thirds of Congress, making it a more complex process than impeachment.

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Section 4 of the amendment, ratified in 1967, establishes that the vice president, together with a majority of the cabinet, can declare the president unable to perform the duties of the office, a decision that must then be confirmed by both chambers of Congress.

The statements come amid rising international tensions and increasing domestic political pressure on the president.

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International

Trump pauses strikes on Iran, extends ultimatum by two weeks

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, announced a temporary suspension of attacks against Iran for a period of two weeks, extending the ultimatum he had imposed on Tehran just hours before its deadline.

According to the president, the measure is conditional on Iran allowing the “full, immediate, and secure” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that the decision would involve a reciprocal ceasefire between both parties.

The announcement was made through a message on his social media platform, where he emphasized that the pause in military actions is intended to create space for de-escalation in the region.

He also noted that the decision followed a conversation with the prime minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, who requested a two-week extension of the ultimatum.

The move comes amid heightened global tensions, marked by escalating threats and concerns over the potential impact of the conflict on key international energy trade routes.

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