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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Five laboratories investigated in Spain over possible African Swine Fever leak

Catalan authorities announced this Saturday that a total of five laboratories are under investigation over a possible leak of the African swine fever virus, which is currently affecting Spain and has put Europe’s largest pork producer on alert.

“We have commissioned an audit of all facilities, of all centers within the 20-kilometer risk zone that are working with the African swine fever virus,” said Salvador Illa, president of the Catalonia regional government, during a press conference. Catalonia is the only Spanish region affected so far. “There are only a few centers, no more than five,” Illa added, one day after the first laboratory was announced as a potential source of the outbreak.

Illa also reported that the 80,000 pigs located on the 55 farms within the risk zone are healthy and “can be made available for human consumption following the established protocols.” Therefore, he said, “they may be safely marketed on the Spanish market.”

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International

María Corina Machado says Venezuela’s political transition “must take place”

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said this Thursday, during a virtual appearance at an event hosted by the Venezuelan-American Association of the U.S. (VAAUS) in New York, that Venezuela’s political transition “must take place” and that the opposition is now “more organized than ever.”

Machado, who is set to receive the Nobel Peace Prize on December 10 in Oslo, Norway — although it is not yet known whether she will attend — stressed that the opposition is currently focused on defining “what comes next” to ensure that the transition is “orderly and effective.”

“We have legitimate leadership and a clear mandate from the people,” she said, adding that the international community supports this position.

Her remarks come amid a hardening of U.S. policy toward the government of Nicolás Maduro, with new economic sanctions and what has been described as the “full closure” of airspace over and around Venezuela — a measure aimed at airlines, pilots, and alleged traffickers — increasing pressure on Caracas and further complicating both air mobility and international commercial operations.

During her speech, Machado highlighted the resilience of the Venezuelan people, who “have suffered, but refuse to surrender,” and said the opposition is facing repression with “dignity and moral strength,” including “exiles and political prisoners who have been separated from their families and have given everything for the democratic cause.”

She also thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for recognizing that Venezuela’s transition is “a priority” and for his role as a “key figure in international pressure against the Maduro regime.”

“Is change coming? Absolutely yes,” Machado said, before concluding that “Venezuela will be free.”

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International

Catalonia’s president calls for greater ambition in defending democracy

The President of the Generalitat of Catalonia, Salvador Illa, on Thursday called for being “more ambitious” in defending democracy, which he warned is being threatened “from within” by inequality, extremism, and hate speech driven by what he described as a “politics of intimidation,” on the final day of his visit to Mexico.

“The greatest threat to democracies is born within themselves. It is inequality and the winds of extremism. Both need each other and feed off one another,” Illa said during a speech at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mexico City.

In his address, Illa stated that in the face of extremism, society can adopt “two attitudes: hope or fear,” and warned that hate-driven rhetoric seeks to weaken citizens’ resolve. “We must be aware that hate speech, the politics of intimidation, and threats in the form of tariffs, the persecution of migrants, drones flying over Europe, or even war like the invasion of Ukraine, or walls at the border, all pursue the same goal: to make citizens give up and renounce who they want to be,” he added.

Despite these challenges, he urged people “not to lose hope,” emphasizing that there is a “better alternative,” which he summarized as “dialogue, institutional cooperation, peace, and human values.”

“I sincerely believe that we must be more ambitious in our defense of democracy, and that we must remember, demonstrate, and put into practice everything we are capable of doing. Never before has humanity accumulated so much knowledge, so much capacity, and so much power to shape the future,” Illa stressed.

For that reason, he called for a daily defense of the democratic system “at all levels and by each person according to their responsibility,” warning that democracy is currently facing an “existential threat.”

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