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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Brazil offers to mediate Colombia-Ecuador tensions, calls for restraint

The government of Brazil has offered to mediate in the ongoing tensions between Colombia and Ecuador, while calling on both nations to exercise restraint.

In a statement released Wednesday, Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the parties involved to act with moderation and seek a peaceful resolution to the dispute.

“Brazil encourages all sides to act with moderation in order to find a peaceful solution to the controversy. It stands ready to support dialogue efforts aimed at preserving peace and security in the region,” the statement said.

Brazil also expressed “serious concern” over reports of deaths in the border area between Colombia and Ecuador, noting that the circumstances surrounding the incidents have not yet been clarified.

The diplomatic move comes amid rising tensions between the neighboring countries, increasing regional concern over stability and security along their shared border.

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U.S. lowers travel advisory for much of Venezuela but keeps high-risk zones under warning

The U.S. Department of State announced on Thursday that it has lowered its travel advisory for much of Venezuela to Level 3 (“Reconsider Travel”), reflecting what it described as improved security conditions in parts of the country.

However, the agency will maintain the highest Level 4 warning (“Do Not Travel”) for several regions, including the states of Táchira, Amazonas, Apure, Aragua and Guárico, as well as rural areas of Bolívar, citing ongoing risks such as crime, kidnapping and terrorism.

The updated advisory marks a shift from December, when the United States raised the alert for Venezuela to Level 4 nationwide, warning of severe security threats.

Despite the partial downgrade, U.S. authorities continue to urge caution, emphasizing that conditions remain volatile in certain areas and that travelers should carefully assess risks before planning any trips to the country.

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International

EU lawmakers move to ban AI tools that generate non-consensual nude images

Members of the European Parliament are pushing to ban across the bloc artificial intelligence services that allow users to digitally “undress” people without their consent.

The proposal, adopted on Wednesday at committee level, aims to prohibit applications that generate non-consensual explicit images. Irish lawmaker Michael McNamara, one of the sponsors, said the measure seeks to stop tools that “have caused significant harm for the benefit of a few.”

Dutch MEP Kim van Sparrentak welcomed the move, calling it “a major victory, especially for women and children in Europe.”

The amendment, part of broader EU legislation on artificial intelligence, was approved by the Parliament’s civil liberties and internal market committees. It specifically targets systems that use AI to create or manipulate sexually explicit or intimate images resembling identifiable individuals without their consent.

The proposal will be put to a full vote in the European Parliament on March 26. If adopted, lawmakers and European Union member states will need to agree on a final version before it can take effect.

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Separately, representatives of the 27 EU countries recently backed a Franco-Spanish amendment seeking to ban AI services used to generate non-consensual sexual images or child sexual abuse material.

The initiative follows controversy surrounding a feature introduced in Grok, developed by xAI, which allowed users to create simulated nude images from real photos. The tool sparked widespread criticism and prompted an EU investigation.

In response, xAI restricted image generation features in mid-January to paying subscribers and stated it blocks the creation of sexualized images in jurisdictions where such content is illegal.

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