International
Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.
The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.
Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.
On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.
To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.
Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.
The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.
Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.
‘Can change the picture’
Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.
The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.
“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.
After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.
Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.
The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.
Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number — with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.
The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.
Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”
International
Senate Bipartisan Vote Moves Measure to Block Further U.S. Military Action in Venezuela
The U.S. Senate took a significant step on Thursday toward limiting President Donald Trump’s military authority in Venezuela, advancing a bipartisan war powers resolution that would block further military actions without explicit congressional approval, lawmakers said.
In a 52-47 procedural vote, the measure moved forward after five Republican senators joined all Democrats in supporting the effort. The resolution aims to require presidential authorization from Congress before the United States can engage in any new hostilities against Venezuela, a rare rebuke of Trump from both sides of the aisle following the controversial military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
If ultimately passed, the legislation would obligate the administration to withdraw U.S. forces from any imminent hostilities in or against Venezuela unless Congress explicitly authorizes such actions. However, the measure’s future remains uncertain as it heads next to the House of Representatives, where a Republican majority is less likely to approve it, and any final version would likely face a presidential veto. Overriding a veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, a high threshold in the current political landscape.
President Trump has sharply criticized Republican senators who broke ranks to support the resolution, saying they should not be re-elected and arguing that the measure undermines his authority to act in national defense. Nevertheless, the vote signals growing bipartisan concern in Congress about unchecked executive military action in the absence of legislative authorization.
International
Petro and Trump Agree on Joint Action Against ELN Guerrillas After Tense Diplomacy
Colombian President Gustavo Petro and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump agreed on “joint actions” to combat the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group operating along the Colombia–Venezuela border, Colombia’s Interior Minister Armando Benedetti said on Thursday.
The announcement came after a period of heightened diplomatic tension triggered by recent U.S. airstrikes in Venezuela, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and threats of possible U.S. military action in Colombia. The phone call Wednesday evening was the first direct conversation between Petro and Trump since both leaders took office, and it helped ease the strained relationship.
During the call, both presidents committed to carry out joint efforts against the ELN, a guerrilla group that has repeatedly attacked Colombian security forces and is accused of kidnapping soldiers. In December, the ELN declared a “armed strike,” confining civilians in areas under its control in response to perceived threats of U.S. intervention.
According to Benedetti, Petro welcomed Trump’s invitation to meet in Washington and asked for U.S. support to “strike hard” against ELN positions along the porous border with Venezuela, where guerrillas often flee after clashes with Colombian forces.
The border region is a longstanding flashpoint, where armed groups, drug traffickers and illegal mining networks compete for control. Previous attempts by Petro’s government to negotiate peace with the ELN have stalled after a major offensive in Catatumbo that left hundreds dead and displaced thousands.
International
Lula Vetoes Bill That Would Have Shortened Bolsonaro’s Prison Sentence
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed on Thursday a bill that would have significantly reduced the prison sentence of his far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving time for attempting a coup d’état.
Despite the veto, the conservative-majority Congress retains the power to override the decision through a vote.
In September, following a landmark trial, Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison after finding him guilty of conspiring to remain in power in an “authoritarian” manner following his defeat to Lula in the 2022 presidential election.
The 70-year-old former president has been incarcerated in a Brasília prison since late November. Earlier this month, the Supreme Court rejected a request for house arrest on health grounds.
Under the current legal framework, Bolsonaro would be required to serve approximately eight years before becoming eligible for sentence leniency. However, a bill passed by Congress in December could have reduced that period to just over two years, prompting Lula’s veto.
Senate Bipartisan Vote Moves Measure to Block Further U.S. Military Action in Venezuela
Petro and Trump Agree on Joint Action Against ELN Guerrillas After Tense Diplomacy
Lula Vetoes Bill That Would Have Shortened Bolsonaro’s Prison Sentence
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