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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

79-Year-Old ICE Detainee Faces Hearing as Family Warns His Health Is Rapidly Deteriorating

Paul John Bojerski, a 79-year-old man detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Florida, will face a hearing before an immigration judge on Tuesday as his family warns that his health has sharply deteriorated due to detention conditions.

Bojerski was arrested on October 30 during a mandatory ICE appointment in Orlando. Although he has lived in the United States for more than seven decades, he never obtained U.S. citizenship. Born in a refugee camp in Germany after World War II, he legally immigrated with his family in 1952 at the age of five and has lived since then in the city of Sanford.

According to the Orlando Sentinel, his record includes criminal convictions from the 1960s and 1970s, which led to a deportation order that authorities did not carry out at the time.

In July, ICE warned him that he had to leave the country voluntarily. He was instructed to return on October 30 with a travel plan, but was unable to do so because he has no passport and no country willing to receive him. As a result, he was arrested and transported for eight hours to the detention center known as “Alligator Alcatraz,” located in the middle of the Everglades west of Miami.

Immigrant rights organizations have denounced “inhumane” conditions at that facility, which opened in July, reporting issues such as spoiled food, lack of medical care, limited access to drinking water, mosquito infestations, and difficulty contacting the outside world.

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His family says Bojerski has lost mobility since being detained. He previously walked unassisted, but now uses a wheelchair, has been left without his usual treatment for chronic back problems, and reportedly fell to the floor of his cell without receiving help for hours.

He is currently being held at the Krome detention center in Miami, where a judge will determine on Tuesday whether he can be released on bond.

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International

Trump: “I Don’t Rule Out Anything” When Asked About Troops for Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that he may speak at some point with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and did not rule out the possibility of sending American troops to the South American nation.

Trump’s remarks come amid heightened tensions over the U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean aimed at combating drug trafficking. Venezuela views the operation as a step toward toppling Maduro, whom Washington accuses of leading a “terrorist” organization involved in narcotics trafficking.

“At some point, I will talk to him,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. Maduro “has not been good for the United States,” he added.

When asked whether he ruled out sending U.S. troops to Venezuela, Trump replied, “No, I don’t rule it out. I don’t rule out anything.”

“We have to take care of Venezuela,” he continued. “They have sent hundreds of thousands of people from their prisons into our country.”

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International

Armed Civilians Block Roads in Michoacán Amid Operation Targeting Criminal Leader

Armed civilians blocked several highways in the western Mexican state of Michoacán on Monday in response to a security operation targeting a criminal leader, just a week after President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government reinforced the presence of federal forces in the region.

The federal deployment was increased following the early November shooting death of Carlos Manzo, mayor of the municipality of Uruapan. His killing sparked protests and widespread demands for justice.

Michoacán is home to major drug trafficking groups such as the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and La Nueva Familia Michoacana—both designated as “foreign terrorist organizations” by U.S. President Donald Trump in February.

“Following an operation to apprehend a priority target (a criminal leader), armed civilians set up roadblocks and burned vehicles at various highway points in La Piedad, Zamora, and Pátzcuaro,” the Michoacán Public Security Secretariat reported on X.

“Our Civil Guard is already clearing the roads; two suspected individuals were killed,” the agency added, without specifying the intended target of the operation.

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Organized crime groups in Mexico frequently block roads to prevent the capture of their leaders or to hinder law enforcement activities.

The blockades also occurred just hours before a new state public security secretary took office. José Antonio Cruz—a former official of the local prosecutor’s office and former National Guard executive—assumed the position, replacing Juan Carlos Oseguera.

The killing of Mayor Manzo during a public Day of the Dead event on November 1 triggered protests throughout Michoacán. During demonstrations held Saturday in Mexico City, participants also demanded justice for the crime.

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