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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Trump Defies Supreme Court With New 10% Global Tariff

Defiant in the face of a judicial setback, Donald Trump on Friday imposed a new across-the-board 10% tariff after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that he does not have the authority to levy customs duties under the guise of a national emergency.

The Republican president signed the order in the Oval Office and announced on social media that the measure would take effect “almost immediately.” According to a statement from the White House, the decree will formally enter into force on February 24 for a period of 150 days.

It remains unclear whether the new tariff will apply to countries that have already negotiated trade agreements establishing rates higher than 10%.

Earlier in the day, the conservative-majority court ruled that a 1977 law cited by Trump to abruptly impose tariffs on individual countries — disrupting global trade — “does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.”

Trump said he was “deeply disappointed” by the decision and accused some justices of being influenced by “foreign interests.”

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Although he has made variable tariffs a cornerstone of his foreign policy, Trump acknowledged that it is uncertain whether the government will have to refund revenue already collected. A study by the University of Pennsylvaniaestimated that the amount at stake could reach as much as $175 billion.

“That issue was not addressed by the Court,” Trump told reporters, warning that the legal battle could drag on for “years.”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who dissented from the Court’s 6–3 majority opinion, cautioned that the legal process could become a “mess.”

Trump denied any error or haste in using tariffs as a policy tool, arguing instead that the six justices who ruled against him were motivated by “political correctness.” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the Court had acted “outside the law.”

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U.S. Targets Members of Outgoing Boric Administration With Visa Revocations

The United States government announced on Friday the revocation of visas for three Chilean officials—whose identities were not initially disclosed—citing activities that allegedly “undermined regional security,” an accusation that Chile denies.

In a statement, the U.S. Department of State did not provide specific details about the individuals involved but criticized the outgoing administration of leftist President Gabriel Boric.

“The legacy of the Boric government will be further tarnished by actions that undermine regional security to the ultimate detriment of the Chilean people,” the statement read. It was signed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Chile’s Minister of Transport, Juan Carlos Muñoz, later confirmed in a video message to the press that he is among those sanctioned.

“I was recently informed that my visa to enter the United States has been revoked by that country, which I deeply regret,” Muñoz said.

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The U.S. statement also noted that Washington hopes to “advance shared priorities, including those that strengthen security in our hemisphere, with the upcoming Kast government.”

The electoral victory of ultraconservative leader José Antonio Kast was welcomed in Washington, which has been building alliances with like-minded governments in the region to reinforce its diplomatic and economic agenda—particularly in response to China’s growing investment presence in Latin America.

“We remain committed to promoting accountability for Chilean individuals who deliberately work to destabilize our hemisphere,” the statement concluded.

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International

Three Injured in Mail Package Explosion at Buenos Aires Gendarmerie Academy

Three people were injured on Friday after a mail package exploded at the Escuela Superior de Gendarmería in Buenos Aires, according to a statement released by Argentina’s Ministerio de Seguridad.

The explosion occurred at 1:49 p.m. local time (16:49 GMT) inside a building located less than one kilometer from the Government House, the ministry reported.

“Personnel from the force handled a parcel that had reportedly been received months earlier and was being stored at the facility. When it was opened, an explosion occurred, causing injuries to two officers,” the statement said.

The ministry added that both injured officers were transported to a hospital and are not in life-threatening condition. “A third officer remains in recovery and is out of danger,” authorities confirmed.

Following the incident, police cordoned off the surrounding area, halted traffic, and evacuated the 11-story building as well as adjacent buildings on the same block.

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Mariana Bornio, an employee at a telecommunications company located in a neighboring building, said that as she was being evacuated, she saw one of the injured gendarmes leaving the scene shirtless and covered with a blue medical gown.

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