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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

U.S. Senate Rejects Budget, Bringing Government Closer to Shutdown Amid DHS Dispute

The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday against a budget proposal in a move aimed at pressuring changes at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), following the killing of two civilians during a deployment of immigration agents in Minneapolis.

All Senate Democrats and seven Republican lawmakers voted against the bill, which requires 60 votes to advance, pushing the country closer to a partial government shutdown that would cut funding for several agencies, including the Pentagon and the Department of Health.

The rejection came as Senate leaders and the White House continue negotiations on a separate funding package for DHS that would allow reforms to the agency. Proposed measures include banning Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents from wearing face coverings and requiring them to use body-worn cameras during operations.

The vote took place just hours after President Donald Trump said he was “close” to reaching an agreement with Democrats and did not believe the federal government would face another shutdown, following last year’s record stoppage.

“I don’t think the Democrats want a shutdown either, so we’ll work in a bipartisan way to avoid it. Hopefully, there will be no government shutdown. We’re working on that right now,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.

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Trump Says Putin Agreed to One-Week Halt in Attacks on Ukraine Amid Extreme Cold

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he secured a commitment from Russian President Vladimir Putinto halt attacks against Ukraine for one week, citing extreme weather conditions affecting the region.

“Because of the extreme cold (…) I personally asked Putin not to attack Kyiv or other cities and towns for a week. And he agreed. He was very pleasant,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting broadcast by the White House.

Trump acknowledged that several advisers had questioned the decision to make the call.
“A lot of people told me not to waste the call because they wouldn’t agree. And he accepted. And we’re very happy they did, because they don’t need missiles hitting their towns and cities,” the president said.

According to Trump, Ukrainian authorities reacted with surprise to the announcement but welcomed the possibility of a temporary ceasefire.
“It’s extraordinarily cold, record cold (…) They say they’ve never experienced cold like this,” he added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later commented on the announcement, expressing hope that the agreement would be honored.

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Storm Kristin Kills Five in Portugal, Leaves Nearly 500,000 Without Power

Storm Kristin, which battered Portugal with heavy rain and strong winds early Wednesday, has left at least five people dead, while nearly half a million residents remained without electricity as of Thursday, according to updated figures from authorities.

The revised death toll was confirmed to AFP by a spokesperson for the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority (ANPEC). On Wednesday, the agency had reported four fatalities.

Meanwhile, E-Redes, the country’s electricity distribution network operator, said that around 450,000 customers were still without power, particularly in central Portugal.

Emergency services responded to approximately 1,500 incidents between midnight and 8:00 a.m. local time on Wednesday, as the storm caused widespread disruptions.

The Portuguese government described Kristin as an “extreme weather event” that inflicted significant damage across several regions of the country. At the height of the storm, as many as 850,000 households and institutions lost electricity during the early hours of Wednesday.

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Several municipalities ordered the closure of schools, many of which remained shut on Thursday due to ongoing adverse conditions.

Ricardo Costa, regional deputy commander of the Leiria Fire Brigade, said residents continue to seek assistance as rainfall persists.
“Even though the rain is not extremely intense, it is causing extensive damage to homes,” he noted.

In Figueira da Foz, a coastal city in central Portugal, strong winds toppled a giant Ferris wheel, underscoring the severity of the storm.

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