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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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Central America

Guatemala’s Attorney General Consuelo Porras Loses Bid for Constitutional Court Seat

Guatemala’s attorney general, Consuelo Porras, who has been sanctioned by the United States over corruption allegations, lost a key vote on Monday in which a public university selected two of the 10 magistrates for the country’s highest constitutional court. However, she could still seek a seat through another nominating body.

The election of five full magistrates and five alternates to the Corte de Constitucionalidad (CC) is taking place gradually over more than two months and is considered crucial in the ongoing struggle for control of Guatemala’s judiciary, which critics say has long been influenced by a political and economic elite accused of corruption.

According to results announced at a press conference, the governing council of the Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala (USAC) rejected Porras, who had applied as either a full or alternate magistrate, and instead chose two candidates aligned with the university rector. The vote was held at a hotel in Antigua, about 35 kilometers from the capital.

Despite the setback, Porras — whose term as attorney general ends on May 16 — could still be nominated to the Constitutional Court by the Corte Suprema de Justicia, which appoints two magistrates. The remaining six are selected by the president, the bar association and Congress.

“It’s always a possibility,” the 72-year-old lawyer said days earlier when asked by reporters whether she would seek nomination through another institution if she lost the USAC vote.

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Porras has been sanctioned by Washington and the European Union for allegedly attempting two years ago to block the inauguration of President Bernardo Arévalo and for pursuing legal actions against anti-corruption prosecutors, judges, journalists and social leaders since taking office in 2018.

The USAC vote was controversial because most members of the university’s governing council are serving beyond the expiration of their terms. Students, academics and social activists staged protests against Porras’ candidacy.

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International

Florida judge sets 2027 trial in Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against BBC

A federal judge in Florida has scheduled February 2027 for the trial in the lawsuit filed by U.S. President Donald Trump against the BBC, in which he is seeking $10 billion in damages for defamation.

Trump accuses the British broadcaster of airing a misleading edit of a speech he delivered on January 6, 2021, which, he says, made it appear that he explicitly urged his supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

The president filed the suit in December in federal court in Florida, alleging defamation and violations of a law governing business practices when the program was broadcast ahead of the 2024 election.

Trump is seeking $5 billion in damages for each of the two claims.

Lawyers for the BBC unsuccessfully asked the court to dismiss the case, arguing that Trump had not suffered a “legally recognizable harm,” since the investigative program Panorama, which included the edited footage, aired outside the United States.

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International

Head-of-state diplomacy key to guiding China–U.S. ties, Beijing says

Head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China–United States relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Thursday during a regular press briefing, when asked about high-level exchanges between the two sides.

Lin added that in a recent phone call, U.S. President Donald Trump once again expressed his intention to visit China in April, while Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his invitation.

Both sides remain in communication regarding the matter, the spokesperson said.

Lin noted that the essence of China–U.S. economic and trade ties lies in mutual benefit and win-win outcomes.

“Both parties should work together to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, injecting greater certainty and stability into China–U.S. economic and trade cooperation, as well as into the global economy,” he said.

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