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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

German president warns Iran war could spread and disrupt Strait of Hormuz

The president of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, warned Monday that the war involving Iran could expand and further disrupt shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. He urged a swift end to hostilities between Iran, United States and Israel.

Speaking in Panama City during a joint appearance with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Steinmeier said available information suggests Iran has significant capacity to disrupt maritime traffic through the key oil route.

“Iran has considerable potential to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” Steinmeier said through an interpreter. “We should therefore reach an end to the hostilities as soon as possible and call on all parties involved to make that happen.”

The remarks came during Steinmeier’s visit to Panama, the first by a German president to the Central American nation.

The German leader described the possibility of the conflict spreading as “very dangerous,” saying recent developments indicate that such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

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Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump urged allied nations to help ensure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran moved to block the waterway in response to U.S. strikes. However, several allies—particularly in Europe—have shown little support for the proposal.

“Some are very enthusiastic, others are not, and some are countries we have helped for many years,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We have protected them from terrible external threats, and they’re not that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm is important to me.”

Meanwhile, Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said the Strait of Hormuz falls “outside NATO’s scope” and stressed that “the war involving Iran is not Europe’s war.”

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International

Mexico security chief meets DEA director in Washington to boost anti-drug cooperation

Mexico’s Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch, met in Washington with the head of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, Terrance Cole, to discuss cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking and illegal arms flows.

The Mexican official said Monday on social media that he attended the meeting in representation of the Mexican government’s Security Cabinet.

“In Washington, D.C., I represented the Security Cabinet to hold talks with DEA Director Terrance Cole on the importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation to combat drug trafficking, curb the flow of weapons into our country, and reduce violence in Mexico through significant arrests,” García Harfuch wrote.

He added that, following instructions from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, the government will continue strengthening international cooperation on security matters.

For his part, Cole said the meeting focused on cross-border collaboration to tackle drug trafficking and to build safer communities on both sides of the border.

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The meeting comes as Mexico and the United States begin a new round of dialogue on economic and security issues.

Earlier Monday, President Claudia Sheinbaum said she will look for the “best moment” to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump, adding that maintaining a good relationship with Washington is a priority for her administration.

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International

Venezuela’s foreign minister accuses UN rights chief of “immoral bias”

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil criticized the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, accusing him of having an “immoral bias” and acting as an “echo chamber for falsehoods” regarding the situation in Venezuela.

Gil’s remarks came after Türk stated that his office had not received an official list from Venezuelan authorities detailing the release of political prisoners, nor authorization to carry out visits related to the issue.

“The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights insists on a narrative biased against our country, repeating unfounded accusations while deliberately omitting the impact of unilateral coercive measures on the rights of the Venezuelan people,” Gil said in a message posted on his Telegram channel.

Without directly addressing the question of prisoner releases, the Venezuelan foreign minister also accused Türk of aligning with what he described as the “agenda of extremism in Venezuela.”

Gil added that, despite serious human rights violations occurring in other parts of the world, the UN official has chosen to maintain what he described as an “immoral bias” against Venezuela.

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The criticism is part of a broader dispute between the Venezuelan government and the UN human rights office over reports and investigations concerning the human rights situation in the country.

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