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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

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To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

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The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

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Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Up to 13 hours of power cuts in Ecuador due to severe drought

Ecuador lives this Thursday with power cuts of up to 13 hours, a measure caused by the reduction of hydroelectric energy generated due to the drought and that led the Government to ask, without much success, that working hours be suspended.

The reservoirs register alarming storage levels on the eve of the holding of a binding referendum on the measures proposed by President Daniel Noboa to try to tackle the growing violence linked to drug trafficking.

The movement in the large urban transport stations of Quito was the usual one, despite the Government’s request. The buses left for several points in the capital, bypassing the lack of traffic lights in some sectors, where the electricity service had been suspended.

The cuts began on Sunday without warning, for shorter periods, but they have been getting longer with the passage of the days.

“Yesterday I was taken from eight to eleven (in the morning) and it is the time it takes to work. Today with eight hours (of suspension) it will be worse, it affects us a lot,” Segundo Guacho tells AFP.

The 45-year-old man owns a computer rental business in downtown Quito and maintains that in three days he has lost about $200 in income due to the interruption of the service.

The Executive suspended the working day in the public and private sectors on Thursday and Friday, as well as classes, after announcing that the Mazar (the most important) and Paute reservoirs, both in the south of the Andean area, are in “critical conditions” by registering storage levels of 0% and 4%, respectively.

The flow rate in the largest hydroelectric power plant, Coca Codo Sinclair (northern Amazon), with the capacity to generate 1,500 MW of power to cover 30% of national demand, is 60% of the historical average.

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International

U.S. Department of Justice. The United States will have to pay $100 million to the victims of Larry Nassar

The U.S. Department of Justice will pay $100 million to resolve lawsuits against the FBI for mishandling of the investigation into sexual abuse committed by former U.S. gymnastics team doctor Larry Nassar, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The newspaper said that the agreement involves 100 victims of Nassar, who was convicted in late 2017 and early 2018 for sexually assaulting hundreds of athletes and is serving a sentence of up to 175 years in prison.

Olympic gold medalists Simone Biles, Aly Raisman and McKayla Maroney and other American gymnasts filed a billion dollar lawsuit against the FBI in June 2022 for not having acted properly to reports of sexual abuse by Nassar.

The Journal indicated that the agreement was reached several months ago and was initially accepted by the victims of Nassar, but it has not been finalized.

Citing a report by the inspector general of the Department of Justice, the newspaper said that there were multiple failures in the handling by the FBI of the complaints against Nassar filed by USA Gymnastics to the local FBI office in Indianapolis in July 2015.

The lack of action in the face of the complaints allowed Nassar to continue sexually assaulting dozens of victims before his arrest in 2016.

Nassar worked as a sports doctor at the U.S. Gymnastics Federation (USA Gymnastics) and at Michigan State University for more than two decades.

FBI director Christopher Wray acknowledged the organization’s failures during a testimony before a Senate committee in September 2021, saying that they were “unforgivable.”

Addressing the victims of Nassar, Wray said: “I especially regret that there were people in the FBI who had their own chance to stop this monster in 2015 and failed.”

The victims of Nassar reached a $380 million agreement with USA Gymnastics in 2021, one of the largest ever registered for victims of sexual abuse.

USA Gymnastics filed for bankruptcy in 2018 after a wave of accusations against Nassar flooded the organization.

Michigan State University reached a $500 million settlement with hundreds of Nassar victims in 2018.

Nassar was stabbed by another inmate in July last year in the state of Florida prison where he is serving his sentence but recovered from his injuries.

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International

The United States deported 52 migrants to Haiti

About fifty Haitians who were illegally in the United States were deported on Thursday by U.S. authorities to their country, hit by gang violence, a Haitian immigration official told AFP.

A total of 40 men and 12 women landed on Thursday at Cap-Haitien International Airport, the country’s second city, the official said.

At the end of March, more than 480 human rights organizations requested “a moratorium on expulsions to the Republic of Haiti” in a letter addressed to U.S. President Joe Biden, his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and his Secretary of Immigration, Alejandro Mayorkas.

“Today, due to the lack of functioning institutions, armed groups terrorize the population through systematic rapes, indiscriminate kidnappings and mass murders, with total impunity,” they stressed.

The United States, the European Union and the UN evacuated a large part of their staff in March due to the instability prevailing in Haiti.

The nine members of the Presidential Transitional Council in Haiti were appointed on Tuesday by official decree.

This Council must guarantee a transition when the questioned Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who agreed to resign in March, effectively leaves his position, paving the way for a presidential election. Henry has been out of the country for several weeks.

Without a president or parliament, Haiti has not had elections since 2016. The capital is 80% in the hands of criminal gangs, accused of numerous abuses, in particular murders, rapes, looting and extortionative kidnappings.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) said last week that almost 100,000 people had fled the metropolitan area due to the increase in gang attacks.

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