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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Mexico’s president blasts ‘Inhumane’ U.S. migration law

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated on Friday that any Mexican detained in the United States should be “immediately” returned to Mexico. Her remarks come in the wake of the opening of a new migrant detention center in Florida earlier this week.

Speaking during her daily press conference, known as La Mañanera del Pueblo, Sheinbaum emphasized that so far, no Mexican national has been held in the facility, which has already sparked controversy and has been nicknamed “the Alcatraz of the Alligators.”

She also criticized the new fiscal law signed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, passed by Congress just a day earlier. The law, which Trump dubbed the “great and beautiful tax reform,” includes significant tax cuts and sweeping reductions in public policies, reallocating billions toward national security and defense—including $170 billion to enhance border security, deportations, and the expansion of detention centers.

“We do not agree with a punitive approach to migration. Migration must be addressed through its structural causes, with cooperation for development,” Sheinbaum asserted.

The Mexican president labeled the Trump administration’s view of migrants as criminals as “inhumane,” and warned that such policies ultimately harm the U.S. economy. She pointed to the mass deportation of agricultural workers as an example of how these actions are already backfiring.

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“These are hardworking people—people of good will—who contribute more to the U.S. economy than they do to Mexico’s,” Sheinbaum said, announcing that her government will strengthen support programs to ensure that affected migrants can return home safely and reintegrate into the workforce.

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International

Julio César Chávez Jr. faces charges in Mexico after U.S. arrest

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced on Friday that the country is expecting the deportation of boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. so he can face legal proceedings in Mexico, following his arrest in the United States and confirmation by Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office (FGR) of an arrest warrant for organized crime and arms trafficking.

“This is an arrest warrant stemming from an investigation that began in 2019 and was granted by a judge in 2023 (…). We are expecting his deportation so he can serve his sentence in Mexico,” Sheinbaum stated during her daily press briefing.

The president said she was unaware of the case until speaking with Attorney General Alejandro Gertz Manero, who confirmed an investigation linked to organized crime. She also noted that authorities had been unable to execute the warrant earlier because Chávez Jr. had spent most of his time in the United States. “His deportation to Mexico is now being pursued,” she added.

Sheinbaum said there is no confirmed date yet for the boxer’s return to the country, as the process involves “specific protocols” that the FGR is currently handling.

Her statement follows the announcement by U.S. authorities on Thursday of Chávez Jr.’s arrest. The boxer, son of Mexican boxing legend Julio César Chávez, is accused of involvement in organized crime and arms trafficking allegedly tied to the Sinaloa Cartel.

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“This Sinaloa Cartel affiliate, wanted for trafficking firearms, ammunition, and explosives, was arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE),” said Tricia McLaughlin, Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in an official statement.

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International

Europe faces a summer of heatwaves and wildfires, Red Cross warns

36 deaths reported due to heat wave in Nuevo Leon, Mexico

The heatwave sweeping across Europe — accompanied by wildfires in countries such as Greece and Turkey — is “just the beginning” of a summer season expected to see extreme conditions lasting through September, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned.

In a statement, the IFRC stressed the urgent need for governments and communities to shift from a reactive to a preventive approach to safeguard lives.

The organization reported that wildfires in the Turkish region of Izmir, on the country’s western coast, have already claimed at least two lives and forced the evacuation of 50,000 people. Meanwhile, on the Greek island of Crete, around 5,000 residents and tourists have also had to flee due to encroaching fires.

Smaller-scale evacuations and wildfires are also being reported in other countries, including eastern Germany and North Macedonia, with Red Cross volunteers actively involved in firefighting and relief operations.

“Heatwaves and wildfires — increasingly frequent and deadly — are no longer isolated events. They are becoming the new reality for millions,” said Birgitte Bischoff, IFRC’s Regional Director for Europe.

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