International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

U.S. to invest $700 million in coal plants and mines under Trump initiative

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Thursday a $700 million funding package aimed at supporting the American coal industry, marking the latest step in his administration’s efforts to boost the use of the fossil fuel.

According to Trump, the funding will be used to keep 14 coal-fired power plants operating across ten states, maintain 42 coal mines, and support the construction of two new power plants and an export terminal.

The president said the initiative will be financed through the Defense Production Act, a law enacted in 1950 that grants emergency powers to the president to support and direct domestic industries considered critical to national interests.

Since returning to the White House last year, Trump has pursued policies designed to expand domestic energy production and roll back a number of environmental regulations. He has also repeatedly questioned the scientific consensus regarding human-caused climate change.

Coal remains the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions among major energy sources, making it a central focus of debates over climate policy and energy security.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended the initiative, describing coal as a critical resource for both electricity generation and industrial production.

The announcement comes as global energy markets continue to evolve. According to an analysis by the Global Energy Monitor, the world added and commissioned more coal-fired power capacity in 2025, although overall coal consumption declined. The report also found that the United States was the only major economy to record a significant increase in coal-fired power generation during that period.

The new funding package underscores the administration’s commitment to supporting traditional energy industries while debate continues over the balance between energy security, economic growth and environmental objectives.

International

Four decapitated bodies found in abandoned vehicle near Guerrero state Congress

Police in Mexico have found four decapitated bodies inside an abandoned vehicle parked near the state Congress building in Guerrero, authorities confirmed on Thursday.

The southern state of Guerrero, home to the resort city of Acapulco, has long been affected by violent clashes between criminal organizations competing for control of drug trafficking routes.

According to prosecutors cited by AFP, the bodies were wrapped in black plastic bags and left inside a car parked at one of the rear entrances of the legislative building in the state capital, Chilpancingo.

Authorities say the region has seen intensified conflict between rival drug trafficking groups, including the Sierra Cartel and Los Ardillos, a criminal organization that Indigenous communities have accused of carrying out attacks in the mountainous, impoverished areas of the state.

The ongoing violence highlights the persistent security crisis in Guerrero, where organized crime continues to exert significant influence over large parts of the territory.

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International

Foro Penal Reports 404 Political Prisoners Still Held in Venezuela

The Venezuelan human rights organization Foro Penal, which leads legal defense efforts for political prisoners in the country, reported on Wednesday that 404 people remain imprisoned for political reasons, five fewer than the figure released a week earlier. Among those detained are 39 foreign nationals or individuals with dual citizenship.

According to data published by the organization, the current total includes 369 men and 35 women being held on political grounds. The report also indicates that 225 of the detainees are civilians, including one teenager, while 179 are members of the military.

Foro Penal stated that 167 of the prisoners have been convicted, whereas 237 remain behind bars without a final sentence. The organization also noted that it has documented 19,102 politically motivated detentions in Venezuela since 2014.

The updated figures come amid an ongoing process of prisoner releases announced by Venezuelan authorities. Two weeks ago, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez said that approximately 300 detainees would be freed as part of a new round of releases, separate from those granted under an amnesty approved earlier this year.

Days later, acting President Delcy Rodríguez stated that the number of releases would reach 500 in the coming days. However, relatives of political prisoners and human rights organizations have questioned the pace of the process, arguing that the number of verified releases remains significantly lower than the figures announced by the government.

Foro Penal has reported that dozens of prisoners have been released in recent weeks, but the organization maintains that hundreds of people continue to be detained for political reasons despite the government’s promises and the implementation of the amnesty process.

Families of detainees have continued to demand greater transparency regarding the release process, alleging that many of the promised excarcerations have yet to materialize and calling on authorities to provide clear information about those who remain in custody.