International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Iran Rejects Negotiations With U.S. as Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked Amid New Attack
Tensions remained high in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after a vessel was hit by a projectile, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that negotiations with Iran were moving forward and that the strategic maritime route could reopen as early as Tuesday.
Tehran denied that direct talks were taking place, but Trump insisted that discussions were underway and described the situation as a final opportunity for Iran to reach an agreement.
“This is the last chance they have to sign a good document,” Trump told reporters at the White House, adding that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could happen “literally tomorrow” Tuesday.
The comments came after another escalation in rhetoric from Washington. Last week, Trump threatened Iran with military strikes before unexpectedly changing course on Sunday and announcing that negotiations with Tehran would resume.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai rejected the U.S. president’s version of events, stating that Tehran was not holding negotiations with Washington.
“At this moment, we are not negotiating with the United States. We are negotiating with Oman to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” Baqai said.
Earlier, the Iranian official said that Tehran was close to reaching an agreement with Oman, which lies across the Strait of Hormuz, to reopen the crucial waterway that plays a key role in global energy trade.
The maritime route has remained blocked by Iran since the outbreak of hostilities following U.S. and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic on February 28.
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced Tuesday that they had launched an attack against an airport in Saudi Arabia. The Iran-backed group had previously disrupted the passage of Saudi vessels through the Red Sea, an alternative route used for crude exports by the world’s largest oil producer.
The continued instability in the region has raised concerns over global energy supplies, as the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important chokepoints for international oil shipments.
International
Lula Launches Re-Election Campaign Amid Rising Tensions With Trump
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set to be officially nominated for re-election by his Workers’ Party (PT), marking the start of his campaign for a fourth presidential term.
The nomination takes place during the party’s national convention in São Paulo, Brazil’s economic hub, where around 3,000 supporters gathered to back the veteran leftist leader.
“Today I’m here because Lula’s policies changed my life and my family’s. Thanks to him, we finally own a home after eight generations without one,” said Cristiane Rosa Julho, a 51-year-old social worker attending the event dressed in the PT’s signature red.
Seeking the presidency for the seventh time in his political career, Lula is expected to face Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in next year’s election.
The 45-year-old senator is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been jailed over his alleged role in an attempted coup following his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election.
The party convention opened with videos highlighting Lula’s social initiatives and speeches by four women praising his leadership, while supporters waved PT flags and held signs reading “We Want Lula as President” and “Brazil Is Not for Sale.”
The campaign begins amid growing tensions with the United States and President Donald Trump, a close ally of the Bolsonaro family who has openly backed several conservative candidates across Latin America.
Last week, Lula warned against foreign interference, declaring, “In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it doesn’t belong.”
In July, the United States imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products, accusing the country of unfair trade practices. The measures followed earlier restrictions introduced in 2025, encouraged by Jair Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo Bolsonaro, in response to legal proceedings against the former president.
Lula has vowed to wage what he called a “war of truth against lies” in response to Washington’s pressure and accused Flávio Bolsonaro of undermining Brazil’s interests by allegedly helping the United States damage the country’s economy. The senator has denied the accusations.
The Brazilian president also claims Washington is attempting to influence the country’s political landscape in an effort to prevent his re-election.
International
Truck bomb attack near police station in Colombia leaves 14 injured ahead of presidential inauguration
A truck loaded with explosives exploded on Saturday near a police station in the Colombian city of Cúcuta, close to the Venezuelan border, leaving 14 people injured in an attack that occurred six days before president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella’s inauguration.
The blast took place in the early hours of the morning and was allegedly carried out by members of the National Liberation Army (ELN), who detonated a vehicle packed with explosives. According to the latest report from the Colombian Army, the attack injured 11 police officers and three civilians.
The explosion involved around 15 explosive devices, and two of the wounded officers are in critical condition and “fighting for their lives,” said William Villamizar, governor of Norte de Santander, the region where the attack occurred.
The incident comes amid Colombia’s worst wave of violence in the past decade, with armed groups expanding their presence in several areas of the country.
“I strongly condemn the cowardly terrorist attack carried out in Cúcuta against our National Police. Terrorism will not intimidate Colombia or break the determination of Colombians to live in peace and security,” De la Espriella said in a post on X.
The conservative lawyer, who has been described as a far-right figure, will take office on August 7, replacing Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president. The inauguration ceremony will be held in Cali, the country’s third-largest city and a frequent target of attacks by armed groups.
The United Nations condemned what it described as an “indiscriminate attack” that caused not only injuries but also “fear and distress among the population.”
De la Espriella has repeatedly warned about an alleged plot against his life. Meanwhile, President Gustavo Petro, who is currently visiting Cuba, has not commented on the attack. During his visit, Petro met with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel to discuss what Havana describes as the United States’ “policy of suffocation” toward the island.
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