International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Truck bomb attack near police station in Colombia leaves 14 injured ahead of presidential inauguration
A truck loaded with explosives exploded on Saturday near a police station in the Colombian city of Cúcuta, close to the Venezuelan border, leaving 14 people injured in an attack that occurred six days before president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella’s inauguration.
The blast took place in the early hours of the morning and was allegedly carried out by members of the National Liberation Army (ELN), who detonated a vehicle packed with explosives. According to the latest report from the Colombian Army, the attack injured 11 police officers and three civilians.
The explosion involved around 15 explosive devices, and two of the wounded officers are in critical condition and “fighting for their lives,” said William Villamizar, governor of Norte de Santander, the region where the attack occurred.
The incident comes amid Colombia’s worst wave of violence in the past decade, with armed groups expanding their presence in several areas of the country.
“I strongly condemn the cowardly terrorist attack carried out in Cúcuta against our National Police. Terrorism will not intimidate Colombia or break the determination of Colombians to live in peace and security,” De la Espriella said in a post on X.
The conservative lawyer, who has been described as a far-right figure, will take office on August 7, replacing Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president. The inauguration ceremony will be held in Cali, the country’s third-largest city and a frequent target of attacks by armed groups.
The United Nations condemned what it described as an “indiscriminate attack” that caused not only injuries but also “fear and distress among the population.”
De la Espriella has repeatedly warned about an alleged plot against his life. Meanwhile, President Gustavo Petro, who is currently visiting Cuba, has not commented on the attack. During his visit, Petro met with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel to discuss what Havana describes as the United States’ “policy of suffocation” toward the island.
International
EU Faces Migration Crisis After 60,000 Migrants Arrive in Spain’s Ceuta Enclave
The arrival of around 60,000 migrants from Morocco to Spain’s Ceuta enclave triggered a major European Union crisis on Friday, after Madrid described the situation as an “attack” on its territorial integrity.
At least 34 people died while attempting to reach the Spanish territory, according to local authorities.
Hundreds of migrants had begun arriving in Ceuta earlier in the week, either by swimming across the border or climbing security fences. Most of those who entered were young men and teenagers.
However, the situation escalated dramatically early Thursday morning, when the number of arrivals surged within a few hours, reaching nearly 60,000 people. According to the Spanish government, the vast majority of them — around 48,000 migrants — had returned to Morocco by Friday evening.
The episode represents one of the most serious migration crises faced by the autonomous city of Ceuta, which has a population of around 84,000 residents, in recent years.
Several European countries responded strongly to the crisis, with Italy announcing the temporary suspension of the Schengen free movement agreement with Spain, a measure supported by Finland and Denmark.
“The temporary suspension of Schengen with Spain is a necessary decision to protect the security of our citizens and defend Europe’s borders,” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said in a post on X.
Italy’s Interior Ministry confirmed that the country had tightened controls on maritime and air entry points from Spain, but clarified that the measure would not affect Spanish or European citizens traveling to Italy.
The additional checks will specifically target non-European citizens arriving from Spain, according to the ministry.
The measure will remain in effect for one month starting Saturday, authorities said.
Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares responded to the Italian announcement through a statement on X, as European governments continued discussions over the consequences of the migration crisis.
International
Chuck Schumer Unveils Proposal to Strengthen Oversight of the U.S. Presidency
U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Thursday announced legislation to establish a federal anti-corruption office aimed at strengthening oversight of the executive branch and preventing future presidents from using the White House for personal financial gain.
Schumer said the proposal was prompted by what he described as President Donald Trump’s misuse of the presidencyto benefit his family’s business interests.
“In just 18 months, the Trump family has made more than $4 billion by exploiting the influence of the presidency,” Schumer alleged.
The New York senator also argued that the alleged corruption has had direct economic consequences for American households.
“The same corrupt practices Trump is using to pocket billions of dollars are also forcing Americans to pay, on average, $3,100 more each year because of the rising cost of living,” he said.
The legislation was introduced alongside Democratic Senators Alex Padilla, Jeff Merkley, and Andy Kim.
According to Schumer, the bill has two primary objectives: “First, to return money to the American people. Second, to ensure that no one can ever steal from them again.”
He added that the proposal would create legal mechanisms allowing citizens to seek the recovery of funds allegedly obtained through government corruption.
“The fact that Trump stole money from the American people does not make it his. Americans deserve to get that money back,” Schumer said.
Under the proposed legislation, any U.S. citizen—as well as state attorneys general acting on behalf of their residents—would be authorized to file civil lawsuits to recover funds allegedly acquired through corrupt practices by public officials.
“Our bill would empower any individual, including a state attorney general acting on behalf of the people of that state, to bring legal action to recover money stolen from the public through government corruption,” Schumer said.
The measure is expected to face debate in Congress, where Republicans and Democrats remain deeply divided over executive accountability and the scope of presidential powers.
Truck bomb attack near police station in Colombia leaves 14 injured ahead of presidential inauguration
EU Faces Migration Crisis After 60,000 Migrants Arrive in Spain’s Ceuta Enclave
Chuck Schumer Unveils Proposal to Strengthen Oversight of the U.S. Presidency
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