International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
20th Festival Salvadoreñísimo brings together thousands of salvadorans in Houston
Parades, baton twirlers, and a mix of Salvadoran and international music set the tone for the 20th edition of the Festival Salvadoreñísimo, held in Houston, Texas, with Tony Villatoro once again leading the organization.
This year, the highly anticipated event moved to a new venue: The Crown Festival Park in Sugar Land, Fort Bend County, within the “space city.” Despite the scorching sun of the open-air setting, spirits remained high, and a brief drizzle later brought relief and renewed energy to the celebration.
More than 5,000 Salvadorans gathered at the park, joining with Guatemalans, Hondurans, and even Mexicans to commemorate 204 years of independence for El Salvador and Central America. The festival was marked by a family-friendly atmosphere, where traditional foods such as pupusas, panes con gallina, pastelitos, and horchata could not be missed.
“Twenty years with this festival, and I am very grateful to the Salvadoran community that always shows up. Thanks to them, the sponsors, and to Diario El Salvador for supporting us since the beginning,” said Tony Villatoro, as more compatriots continued arriving to the celebration.
“I am satisfied. I didn’t expect this level of attendance, especially since we were trying a new outdoor venue with some challenges, but we made it through successfully,” Villatoro added.
The Festival Salvadoreñísimo, now a two-decade-long tradition, once again took place as part of Hispanic Heritage Month, a time when independence festivities run from mid-September through October.
International
El Salvador unveils 2025-2029 National Reintegration Plan for returned migrants
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has launched the National Reintegration Plan for Returned Salvadorans 2025-2029, a strategy designed to create greater opportunities, ensure access to quality services, and provide a favorable environment for Salvadorans returning to their home country to rebuild their lives.
The initiative is supported by the United Nations Network on Migration, coordinated by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), financed by the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF), and backed by the Inter-American Development Bank’s (IDB) Migration Unit.
During the presentation, Vice Minister of Diaspora and Human Mobility Cindy Mariella Portal emphasized that migrants often face multiple challenges upon returning to their communities.
“That is why we are implementing actions that generate real and sustainable opportunities for these individuals,” she stated.
International
Authorities capture CJNG financial chief in international airport operation
A man identified as the main financial operator of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) was arrested Thursday at Mexico City’s international airport, authorities reported.
The individual, named by Mexican media as Óscar Antonio Álvarez, was apprehended during an operation involving the army, navy, National Guard, police, and the attorney general’s office, according to a joint statement.
Álvarez is considered the primary financial operator of a criminal group originating in Jalisco, and the capture took place at Benito Juárez Airport as he arrived on a flight from Barcelona, Spain.
Authorities stated that Álvarez faces charges of organized crime and money laundering, specifically for receiving and transferring illicit funds. His work with the CJNG reportedly included purchasing properties and managing businesses in the tequila and livestock sectors.
According to El Universal, Álvarez was directly under the command of Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho”, the cartel’s top leader, for whom the U.S. offers a $15 million reward.
The CJNG, which operates throughout Mexico and in various parts of the world, was designated earlier this year as a “foreign terrorist organization” by the U.S. government.
Álvarez was handed over to the federal public prosecutor to determine his legal situation, the report added.
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