International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
International
German Authorities Investigate More Than 100 New Cases Against Convicted Nurse
German authorities announced Monday that they are investigating more than 100 additional cases involving a nurse who was sentenced to life in prison in November for the murder of 10 patients.
The man, who was 44 at the time of his conviction, worked in palliative care at a hospital in Würselen, near Aachen. He was also found guilty of 27 attempted murders.
Aachen prosecutors are now examining 121 new cases, a spokesperson for the office said.
Prosecutors leading the investigation are preparing a new indictment that could be filed next year. Nearly 40 bodies have so far been exhumed as part of the investigation, which covers alleged incidents dating back to September 2022.
Meanwhile, prosecutors in the city of Cologne are investigating 18 additional cases. According to a spokesperson, the oldest case dates back to 2010.
Before working at the Würselen hospital, the nurse is believed to have worked at a clinic in eastern Cologne, according to local media reports.
At the time of his November conviction, the court ruled that the severity of his crimes was particularly serious, a finding that would make it difficult for him to obtain early release after 15 years in prison.
Between December 2023 and May 2024, the nurse administered overdoses of sedatives or painkillers to terminally ill patients, most of them elderly, according to the indictment in the original case.
His alleged motive was to sedate patients who required care so that he could minimize his workload during night shifts, prosecutors said.
According to the indictment, the nurse worked «without enthusiasm» and «without motivation». When faced with patients requiring extensive care, he allegedly became «irritated» and showed a lack of empathy.
The case has revived painful memories in Germany of Niels Högel, a former nurse and serial killer who was sentenced to life imprisonment in June 2019 for the murders of at least 85 patients.
International
Venezuela Raises Earthquake Death Toll to 6,301
The death toll from the earthquakes that struck Venezuela on June 24 has risen to 6,301, while relatives continue searching for missing people among the rubble of collapsed buildings, parliamentary leader Jorge Rodríguez said Monday.
So far, the Venezuelan government has not released an official figure for the number of people missing after the magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes, which caused around 190 buildings to collapse, most of them in the coastal state of La Guaira, about 25 miles (40 kilometers) from Caracas.
The latest figure represents an increase from the 6,125 deaths reported by Venezuelan authorities on August 3.
According to statements made to local media by La Guaira Governor José Alejandro Terán, around 1,400 people were still missing just over a week ago.
Thousands of homes remain at risk
In addition to buildings that completely collapsed, authorities have classified another 9,567 structures as being at «high risk». Meanwhile, 12,411 homes remain under a «restricted» classification.
As a result, many families who lived in these properties have been relocated to temporary shelters or have sought accommodation with relatives and friends.
Nearly 24,000 people left homeless by the disaster are currently living in camps in Caracas and La Guaira, a popular tourist destination whose economy has been severely affected by the earthquakes.
The situation sparked renewed concern among Venezuelans on Monday after a magnitude 7.4 earthquake, with its epicenter in Colombia, was felt across several regions of Venezuela.
The earthquake in Colombia left at least 111 people dead and dozens injured, according to preliminary figures released by authorities in that country.
International
CEAPI Backs Colombia’s New Government and Calls for Greater Public-Private Cooperation
The Ibero-American Business Alliance Council (CEAPI), led by its president, Núria Vilanova, participated in the inauguration ceremony of Abelardo de la Espriella as Colombia’s new president. The events were held on August 7 in Cali and brought together heads of state and institutional representatives from numerous countries.
CEAPI maintains a strong relationship with Colombia as part of its mission to serve as a meeting point between Ibero-American business leaders and the region’s main institutions and governments. The organization has more than 25 members in Colombia, including Jaime Gilinski, Luis Carlos Sarmiento, Omar González and Diego Urrea. In addition, Colombia hosted the seventh CEAPI Ibero-American Congress, held in Cartagena de Indias in 2024.
During his inauguration speech, President De la Espriella identified confidence and economic stability as key pillars of his administration and emphasized the role of private enterprise in Colombia’s future.
He also reaffirmed his intention to govern for all Colombians and strengthen institutional dialogue, while referring to Spain’s democratic transition and the leadership of former Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez.
Vilanova said she has seen this commitment firsthand during meetings with members of the new government, who have expressed their willingness to work closely with business leaders and the private sector to promote economic growth.
According to CEAPI, the government is considering measures aimed at strengthening legal certainty and business confidence, encouraging investment and promoting formal employment.
For Vilanova, Colombia’s new political and economic stage represents an opportunity to demonstrate that «when the public and private sectors are aligned, they can achieve more».
«Colombia has everything it needs to make it happen. And Ibero-American business leaders are ready to support it», she said, adding that CEAPI is already working with the government to organize a future investment delegation to the country.
The organization said the planned visit would seek to strengthen business ties and identify new investment opportunities in Colombia, reinforcing the role of the private sector in the country’s economic development.
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