International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Portuguese Authorities Seize 2.6 Tons of Cocaine Worth More Than $550 Million in Drug Bust
Italian financial police reported Monday that Portuguese authorities intercepted a speedboat carrying more than 2.6 tons of cocaine, with an estimated street value exceeding $550 million.
Four people — two Spanish nationals, one Albanian citizen, and a man from Gibraltar — were arrested in connection with the operation, according to Italian authorities.
The vessel was intercepted off the coast of Lisbon by Portugal’s maritime police following an investigation led by Italian authorities.
Italian financial police estimated that the seized shipment had a street value of approximately 500 million euros ($570 million), making it one of the largest drug seizures reported in the region in recent years.
Portuguese authorities said the interception took place on Thursday, about 90 kilometers (50 nautical miles) southwest of Cape Espichel, during an operation targeting international drug trafficking routes.
International
U.S. and Iran Maintain Ceasefire as Trump Expresses Optimism Over New Talks
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that there are “good chances” of reaching an agreement with Iran, as both sides maintained a ceasefire for the third consecutive day following weeks of escalating hostilities.
Trump expressed optimism about the possibility of resuming diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending the conflict, which began in late February and has raised international concerns over its impact on global markets and energy supplies.
The fighting has remained suspended since Saturday, after the United States resumed airstrikes against Iran amid a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. The renewed military action had previously caused the collapse of an earlier ceasefire agreement.
Asked about the prospects for negotiations aboard Air Force One, Trump said: “I have a lot of patience… We’ll see what happens. I think there are good chances that something could happen.”
The U.S. president also highlighted Washington’s military capabilities, saying: “We have a lot of ammunition,” while adding that he would like to have more resources due to U.S. support for Ukraine.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump was allowing diplomatic efforts more time, explaining that the president was “giving some space to the talks” while maintaining that Washington remains prepared to take action if necessary.
Meanwhile, tensions continue in other areas of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reported that it intercepted drones launched from Iraq by groups allied with Tehran and urged the Iraqi government to take measures to prevent further attacks.
International
Police Investigate After Remains of Five Newborns Found in French Apartment
French authorities have opened a murder investigation after the discovery of human remains believed to belong to five newborn babies inside an apartment in the historic center of a city, the local prosecutor’s office reported Monday night.
According to prosecutors, a 32-year-old woman had given birth at home on Sunday to a healthy baby before being taken to a hospital for medical care.
The discovery was made after the woman’s 32-year-old partner began searching the residence after reportedly learning, once again and at a late stage, that she had been pregnant.
During the search, the man found what appeared to be human remains and informed the hospital, which then alerted prosecutors.
A forensic doctor determined that the remains likely belonged to five newborn infants. Authorities have not yet established the circumstances or motive behind the case.
Investigators have not been able to interview the mother, who remains hospitalized following the delivery.
Prosecutors also confirmed that the couple has two other children, aged eight and nine years old. The investigation remains ongoing as authorities work to clarify the events surrounding the discovery.
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