International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Ukraine declares nationwide energy emergency amid russian attacks and extreme cold
The Ukrainian government on Wednesday declared a nationwide energy state of emergency amid continued Russian military attacks and extreme winter weather, with nighttime temperatures dropping as low as minus 18 degrees Celsius.
“The consequences of Russian attacks and worsening weather conditions are severe (…) Overall, a state of emergency will be declared for Ukraine’s energy sector,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a statement posted on social media following a meeting with senior officials.
Zelensky announced the creation of a “permanent coordination headquarters” to manage the crisis in the capital, Kyiv, and tasked former defence minister and current energy chief Denys Shmyhal with overseeing support efforts for affected individuals and communities, including addressing power outages, heating shortages and other “practical issues.”
“There are many problems that require urgent solutions,” the president said, noting that repair crews, energy companies, municipal services and the State Emergency Service are working “around the clock” to restore electricity supplies. Kyiv has been particularly affected after Russian strikes last Friday disabled key parts of the power grid, as daytime temperatures hover around minus 12 degrees Celsius and plunge to minus 18 at night.
Zelensky added that public authorities will “maximize efforts with partners to obtain the necessary equipment and additional support,” while the government will ensure “maximum deregulation of all processes” to speed up the connection of backup power equipment to the grid. He also confirmed that work is underway to significantly increase electricity imports into Ukraine.
The Ukrainian leader further instructed his Cabinet to review curfew regulations in light of the extreme cold, arguing that citizens must have the greatest possible access to assistance centers, while businesses should be given flexibility to plan their operations according to the state of the energy system.
International
France joins Denmark’s ‘Operation Arctic Resistance’ in Greenland amid U.S. tensions
French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed in the early hours of Thursday (Wednesday afternoon in El Salvador) that France will take part in “Operation Arctic Resistance,” after Denmark announced it would expand its military presence in Greenland amid rising tensions with the United States over Washington’s stated ambitions regarding the semi-autonomous territory.
“At Denmark’s request, I have decided that France will participate in the joint exercises organized by Denmark in Greenland, ‘Operation Arctic Resistance,’” Macron said in a brief message posted on social media at 5:18 p.m.
The French president added that “the first French military elements are already on their way, with others to follow,” though he did not specify the number of troops being deployed or the scale of France’s planned contribution.
The governments of Sweden, Norway and Germany have also confirmed the deployment of military contingents to Greenland. Germany’s armed forces will send a 13-member reconnaissance team to the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, to take part in a mission scheduled to run from Thursday through Saturday, according to the German Ministry of Defence.
Denmark’s announcement came shortly before a Danish delegation met at the White House with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss Washington’s plans regarding Greenland. Copenhagen said the military activities would be carried out “in close cooperation with NATO allies.”
International
Iran closes airspace amid U.S. threats and deadly nationwide protests
Iranian authorities closed the country’s airspace in the early hours of Thursday, according to data from flight-tracking website FlightRadar24, amid growing threats of a possible U.S. attack as protests across the country continue and have reportedly left thousands dead.
According to FlightRadar24, the Iranian government suspended all flights to and from the country, except for international flights that have received special authorization. The notice was initially issued for a duration of just over two hours.
The move comes after U.S. President Donald Trump in recent days threatened to strike Iran if its security forces failed to halt the deaths linked to weeks-long protests that began in Tehran and later spread to other Iranian cities. Despite the threats, the White House said diplomacy remains Trump’s preferred option.
Speaking from the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump claimed that “the deaths in Iran have stopped” and said there would be no executions of protesters following his warnings to Tehran. He added that his administration would seek to verify those claims.
“I’ve been told the deaths in Iran are stopping. They’ve stopped, and that there are no plans for executions,” Trump told reporters, cautioning that the United States would be “very upset” if those assurances proved to be untrue.
The statements contrast with reports from rights groups. The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) said on Wednesday that more than 3,400 people have been killed since the protests erupted. Meanwhile, Kurdish-Iranian rights group Hengaw reported this week that a 26-year-old Iranian man, Erfan Soltani, was facing execution as of Wednesday.
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