International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
French Parliament Moves to Approve Social Media Age Limit for Minors
France’s Parliament is expected to approve legislation on Tuesday banning children under the age of 15 from accessing social media platforms, following an agreement reached Monday between lawmakers on the mechanism to enforce the measure.
The initiative is part of President Emmanuel Macron’s broader effort to strengthen online protections for minors and regulate children’s screen time before the end of his second presidential term in May 2027.
“Tomorrow, France will become the first country in Europe to establish a digital age of majority to better protect our children online,” Digital Affairs Minister Anne Le Hénanff said Monday in a post on X.
If approved, the government plans to implement the restriction in September, when students return to school after the summer holidays.
The United Kingdom has already passed similar legislation restricting social media access for users under the age of 16, although that measure is scheduled to take effect in early 2027.
Both the National Assembly, France’s lower house of Parliament, and the Senate are expected to hold final votes on the legislation Tuesday after a joint committee of seven senators and seven lawmakers reached an agreement on the bill’s final wording.
Under the proposed law, children under 15 years old would be prohibited from accessing online social media services, with limited exceptions for certain platforms, including online encyclopedias.
The legislation would make France the first member of the European Union to introduce a nationwide minimum digital age for access to social media platforms, reflecting a growing international movement to strengthen online safeguards for children and teenagers.
International
WHO to Hold New Round of Talks After Slow Progress on Pandemic Accord
Member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) made limited progress during the seventh session of the Intergovernmental Working Group (IGWG) tasked with finalizing a key annex to the global pandemic agreement, prompting negotiators to schedule another round of talks in September.
The session, which opened on July 6 and concluded last week at WHO headquarters in Geneva, focused on drafting and negotiating the annex covering the Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing (PABS) System, a central component of the pandemic accord.
Without the completion of the PABS annex, the global pandemic agreement cannot enter into force.
The annex had originally been expected to be finalized before May 2026, but negotiations have progressed more slowly than anticipated.
In a statement, the WHO said member states “advanced negotiations” on the PABS system while acknowledging that additional discussions are required to complete a framework capable of supporting a faster, more effective and more equitable response to future pandemics.
The organization announced that an eighth round of negotiations will take place on September 14.
Despite the limited progress, delegates succeeded in streamlining the draft text and concentrating discussions on several technical issues.
According to the WHO, negotiators focused on the contractual arrangements underpinning the PABS mechanism, the laboratory networks responsible for handling and sharing pathogens and their genetic sequence data, as well as the framework for distributing the benefits generated through the sharing of those pathogens.
The PABS system is considered one of the most important elements of the future pandemic agreement, as it aims to ensure timely access to pathogens for scientific research while establishing fair mechanisms for sharing the benefits derived from vaccines, diagnostics and other medical countermeasures developed during future global health emergencies.
International
Iran Says It Is in “Full-Scale War” as U.S. Launches Ninth Consecutive Night of Airstrikes
Iran declared on Monday that it is facing a “full-scale war” against the United States after Washington carried out another wave of overnight airstrikes, including attacks near a city that hosts one of the country’s nuclear facilities.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country must prepare for the consequences of the ongoing conflict, describing the situation as a broad military confrontation.
“The reality is that today the Islamic Republic of Iran is engaged in a full-scale war,” Pezeshkian said in a statement released by the presidency. “We must be realistic and accept the natural consequences of this resistance.”
The latest U.S. strikes marked the ninth consecutive night of military operations, according to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which announced the attacks on X.
Since hostilities resumed on July 7, U.S. air operations have expanded well beyond southern Iran, reaching central and northwestern regions of the country, according to local sources.
Local authorities reported that one person was killed and several others injured in Tabriz, in northwestern Iran, more than 1,000 kilometers from the Persian Gulf.
Additional casualties were reported in the nearby city of Urmia, where several people were wounded during separate strikes.
Washington said the attacks targeted military installations. However, Iranian officials accused the United States of striking populated areas, including Bushehr, home to Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant.
Iran also reported that the Darkhovin nuclear facility, which is still under construction, was among the sites hit during the latest attacks.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the renewed military campaign was carried out in honor of American service members killed in recent days.
Two U.S. soldiers died on Friday during attacks on a military base in Jordan, while another service member was killed on Sunday during the controlled disposal of unexploded munitions from an Iranian drone in northern Iraq.
According to U.S. figures, 17 American troops have been killed since the conflict began on February 28.
On the Iranian side, the latest official figures released on Friday reported 50 deaths and more than 500 injuries since fighting resumed earlier this month.
A memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States on June 17, which had been intended to pave the way for peace negotiations, collapsed after hostilities resumed over the strategic control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
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