International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Joe Biden finishes prostate cancer radiotherapy at Penn Medicine
Former U.S. President Joe Biden completed his prostate cancer radiotherapy on Monday, a condition he has been managing since 2023.
The 82-year-old touched a ceremonial bell at Penn Medicine in Pennsylvania after his final session, according to a video posted on Instagram by his daughter, Ashley Biden. She expressed gratitude to the doctors and nurses for the care her father received during his treatment.
A spokesperson for Biden told ABC News that it is currently unclear whether the former president will need to continue radiotherapy.
Biden’s prostate cancer was detected during a routine check-up. According to his medical team, it was a localized, slow-growing tumor. At the time of diagnosis, doctors indicated a positive prognosis with no signs of metastasis.
Central America
White House targets Nicaragua over human rights and labor violations
The White House is considering imposing new tariffs of up to 100% on Nicaragua or removing the country from the benefits of the CAFTA-DR free trade agreement, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) reported Monday.
The USTR determined that Nicaragua’s policies under the Ortega-Murillo regime regarding violations of labor and human rights, as well as the dismantling of the rule of law, are “unreasonable” and constitute a burden on commerce.
The resolution follows an investigation that began on December 10, 2024, when the USTR, based on recommendations from the Section 301 Committee and other advisory bodies, started reviewing the practices of Nicaragua’s government. The process included a public hearing and more than 160 comments and testimonies, including evidence of severe human rights abuses that have been forwarded to the U.S. State Department for evaluation and follow-up.
The report published Monday extensively documents how Nicaragua’s authoritarian practices — including the repression of fundamental freedoms — create a high-risk environment for U.S. businesses and investments.
International
Zelenskyy: Meeting with Trump “Positive” Despite Rejected Missile Request
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described his reportedly tense meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump last week as “positive,” despite failing to secure Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine. He emphasized what he said was the continued U.S. interest in economic cooperation with Kyiv.
Zelenskyy said Trump backed away from the possibility of sending long-range missiles to Ukraine after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, held just hours before the U.S. and Ukrainian leaders met on Friday.
“In my view, he doesn’t want an escalation with the Russians until he meets with them,” Zelenskyy told reporters Sunday. His remarks were embargoed until Monday morning.
Ukraine is seeking to purchase 25 Patriot air defense systems from U.S. manufacturers using frozen Russian assets and assistance from partners. However, Zelenskyy noted that acquiring all of them will take time due to long production lines. He said he discussed with Trump potential support to accelerate procurement, possibly through European partners.
According to Zelenskyy, Trump stated during their meeting that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sweeping demands — that Ukraine cede the entire eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk — remain unchanged.
Zelenskyy was diplomatic when describing his encounter with Trump, though reports suggest he faced pressure to accept Putin’s terms — a strategy Trump has reportedly maintained since the tense Oval Office confrontation on February 28, when the Ukrainian leader was publicly scolded for not being “grateful enough” for U.S. aid.
Still, Zelenskyy said that since Trump ultimately supported maintaining the current front line, the overall message was “positive” for Ukraine.
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