International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Florida judge sets 2027 trial in Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against BBC

A federal judge in Florida has scheduled February 2027 for the trial in the lawsuit filed by U.S. President Donald Trump against the BBC, in which he is seeking $10 billion in damages for defamation.

Trump accuses the British broadcaster of airing a misleading edit of a speech he delivered on January 6, 2021, which, he says, made it appear that he explicitly urged his supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

The president filed the suit in December in federal court in Florida, alleging defamation and violations of a law governing business practices when the program was broadcast ahead of the 2024 election.

Trump is seeking $5 billion in damages for each of the two claims.

Lawyers for the BBC unsuccessfully asked the court to dismiss the case, arguing that Trump had not suffered a “legally recognizable harm,” since the investigative program Panorama, which included the edited footage, aired outside the United States.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

International

Head-of-state diplomacy key to guiding China–U.S. ties, Beijing says

Head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China–United States relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Thursday during a regular press briefing, when asked about high-level exchanges between the two sides.

Lin added that in a recent phone call, U.S. President Donald Trump once again expressed his intention to visit China in April, while Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his invitation.

Both sides remain in communication regarding the matter, the spokesperson said.

Lin noted that the essence of China–U.S. economic and trade ties lies in mutual benefit and win-win outcomes.

“Both parties should work together to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, injecting greater certainty and stability into China–U.S. economic and trade cooperation, as well as into the global economy,” he said.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

International

Trump administration to end special immigration operation in Minnesota

The administration of Donald Trump is bringing to a close its special operation targeting illegal immigration in the northern state of Minnesota, border czar Tom Homan announced Thursday, following weeks of unrest and the fatal shootings of two activists by federal agents.

Thousands of federal officers had been deployed to Minnesota in December to carry out large-scale raids against undocumented immigrants.

The operations triggered strong reactions from residents and advocacy groups, leading to daily confrontations and the deaths of two people who were shot by federal agents.

“I proposed, and President Trump agreed, that this special operation should end in Minnesota,” Homan said during a press conference in the state capital, Minneapolis.

“A significant drawdown began this week and will continue into next week,” he added.

20260212_constancia_pagos_mh_728x90

Homan indicated that similar enforcement efforts could be launched in other cities.

“Next week we will redeploy the agents currently here back to their home stations or to other parts of the country where they are needed. But we will continue to enforce immigration laws,” he said.