International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
International
Indigenous candidate Leonidas Iza predicts a new social explosion if there is no change in Ecuador
The presidential candidate of Ecuador for the indigenous movement, Leonidas Iza, who was part of the wave of protests of 2019 and who led that of 2022, reveals himself as an “anti-system” politician in the face of “a corrupt system” that he intends to reformulate to relieve the impoverished, because he predicts a new social explosion if there is no change in the Government to meet popular demands.
Iza, 42, is the candidate of Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie) that he himself presides over, and with which he was at the forefront of the 2022 wave of protests against the government of conservative President Guillermo Lasso, where he was arrested and even labeled a “terrorist.”
“I am one of those who has never lost the ability to be outraged when governments have had policies against their own citizens,” Iza, a native of the Andean province of Cotopaxi, said in an interview with EFE.
“I am not against the private sector, I am against those who do not pay taxes and those who come to the Government only to defend their companies,” said the candidate in reference to the last two presidents (Lasso and Daniel Noboa).
“We fight for social justice, not to be violent. It is a reaction to the injustice to which we have been subjected,” he said.
For Iza, who represents the anti-extractivist left of Ecuador, the country has “a corrupt system, a health system that does not work, a deficient and unfair economic system, and public services that are not helping citizens.”
“And that’s what we want to change. We won’t be able to do it overnight, but the State can give relief to the people,” the candidate said.
To do this, it proposes to fight against tax evasion, which amounts to about 7.5 billion dollars a year, and also against corruption, which is estimated at about 3 billion dollars per year, to balance public accounts without having to follow the current credit program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that asks to cut public spending and raise taxes.
He also aimed to increase agricultural productivity, as well as boost tourism to go from 1 to 3 million visitors a year, and anticipated that he will regulate small and artisanal mining to avoid illegal mining but will not allow large-scale mining because it considers that it can contaminate the country’s large river basins.
Iza anticipated that he will not pay the external debt as long as there are “guaguas (children, in Kichwa) who have no education and are dying of hunger, and colleagues who are dying for lack of health.”
“We will tell the IMF and the other multilaterals that we are going to pay, but first we are going to solve the structural problem we have at the moment: education, health and minimum conditions for security,” he warned.
In that sense, Iza pointed out that “the strength of a popular reaction in the streets is accumulating” that must be resolved by whoever is elected. “Knowing my country, which has been on the streets all its life, there will be a popular reaction if (the discomfort) is not resolved in the following months,” he reiterated.
“The option that understands the people is us, and not the sectors that have always been in the Government,” said Iza, who avoided pointing out whether that reaction will reach the dimensions of the strong protests of 2019 and 2022, both led by the indigenous movement.
In this electoral campaign, Iza has left his distinctive Andean red poncho to put on the bulletproof vest in the face of the persistent wave of violence of organized crime that the country is experiencing, because he warned that the “war” that Noboa declared to the criminal gangs has not worked because its leaders are still free.
Faced with this, he promised “a hard hand for all” and recalled that “state institutions must suffocate everyone (criminals)”.
The candidate also advocated deepening international cooperation: “there must be a responsibility of all countries (producers, consumers and drug transit), especially in the region (of Latin America)”.
Asked if Ecuadorian society is ready to have an indigenous president of rural origin, Iza sees himself with popular support to face “the most reactionary sectors that have support in racism and stigmatization.”
International
Deaths in a hotel fire in a ski resort in Turkey rise to 69
The fire that occurred this morning in a 12-story hotel in a ski resort in northwestern Turkey claimed at least 69 deaths, in addition to causing fifty injuries, according to the latest assessment of the country’s authorities.
The fire originated around 3.30 a.m. local time (0.30 GMT) in a hotel, built entirely of wood, in the Kartalkaya ski center, halfway between Istanbul and Ankara, with almost full occupancy.
The flames were extinguished after about ten hours of firefighters’ work and the authorities found the death of 66 people, in addition to rescuing 51 injured, compared to the 10 dead and 32 injured initially estimated.
The hotel, with 161 rooms, had an occupancy close to 90%, because these days are the winter school holidays in Turkey, says the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet.
The wooden construction and the location of the hotel at the foot of a ski slope, which only allows vehicle access from the front facade, made the intervention of firefighters difficult, the Turkish newspaper explained.
According to the television network NTV, about 300 people, including employees, were in the hotel at the time of the fire, the causes of which are still unknown.
International
Hamas calls for counterattack on Israeli soldiers during their incursion in the West Bank
The Islamist organization Hamas urged the Palestinians on Tuesday to intensify and support their militiamen in the clashes against the Israeli Army during the military incursion that began today in Yenin, in the north of the occupied West Bank.
“We call on the masses of our people in the West Bank and their revolutionary youth to mobilize and intensify the clashes against the (Israeli) occupation army at all points, and to work to thwart the extensive Zionist aggression against the city of Yenin.”
“This military operation launched by the occupation in Yenin will fail, as did all its previous military operations against our brave people and their tenacious resistance,” the Palestinian group said.
Since the beginning of the operation, nicknamed by the Army “Iron Wall”, at least seven Palestinians have died in Yenin and another 35 have been injured, according to data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
Hamas accused the forces of the Palestinian National Authority (ANP), President Mahmoud Abbas’ ruling party in the West Bank, of having left Yenin to allow the operation of Israeli troops, instead of defending the Palestinians.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended on Tuesday that the last assault launched by his forces against Yenin, in the north of the occupied West Bank, seeks to “eradicate terrorism.”
“This is another step towards the objective we have set ourselves: to strengthen security in Judea and Samaria (West Bank),” according to a statement released by its Office.
“We are acting systematically and decisively against the Iranian axis wherever it sends its weapons: in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Judea and Samaria (West Bank),” concludes the Israeli president’s note.
The rail comes shortly after the start of the ceasefire in Gaza, which includes a weekly exchange of hostages in the Strip for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.
Following the release of the prisoners, the Army increased its presence in this occupied territory with seven companies, claiming to strengthen its “anti-terrorist efforts.”
The images recorded in Yenin show dozens of Army vehicles accessing the local refugee camp, which has also been bombed by Israeli aviation.
The incursions and attacks of Israeli forces in Yenin, considered a bastion of Islamist-like militias, were already constant but they worsened after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023.
However, since mid-December it has been the security forces of the Palestinian National Authority (ANP), which governs small parts of the West Bank, that have led an offensive in this population, which until last Friday triggered armed fighting against the militiamen.
This exchange of fire has caused at least 15 people dead on both sides, including two minors.
The occupied West Bank is experiencing its greatest spiral of violence since the Second Intifada (2000-05), and in 2024 at least 491 Palestinians have died in the territory by Israeli fire, most of them militiamen from refugee camps, but also civilians, including at least 75 minors, according to EFE’s count.
So far this year, at least 24 Palestinians have already died in Israeli attacks, five of them minors.
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