International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
International
President Noboa Declares New Security Strategy as Ecuador Faces Record Violence Levels
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on Tuesday declared the National Comprehensive Security Plan 2025-2029 as a nationwide public policy, a strategy aimed at guiding state actions on security matters over the next four years.
The measure was formalized through an executive decree that activates the plan approved on March 9 by the Public and State Security Council (Cosepe) and replaces the National Comprehensive Security Plan 2019-2030, which had been designated as public policy in 2021.
Under the new decree, implementation of the strategy will be led by the ministries of Interior, Defense, and Foreign Affairs and Human Mobility, along with the National Intelligence Center and the National Secretariat for Risk Management. These institutions will be responsible for coordinating actions according to their respective areas of responsibility.
According to the official document, the new plan adopts a multidimensional and comprehensive security approach, with a long-term vision focused on national interests and on strengthening the State’s ability to respond to current threats.
The Ecuadorian government said the strategy seeks to improve coordination among public institutions within the framework of the “internal armed conflict” declared by Noboa in 2024 as part of the fight against criminal organizations operating across the country.
The plan also includes measures to strengthen international cooperation against transnational organized crime, which authorities identify as one of Ecuador’s main security challenges due to its links to drug trafficking and illegal mining.
The government described the document as a roadmap for prevention, protection, response and recovery actions in the face of national security risks, promoting coordinated efforts among state institutions.
Ecuador has remained under an internal armed conflict declaration since 2024, when Noboa intensified operations against criminal gangs that his administration has labeled terrorist organizations. Despite the increased security measures, the country recorded around 9,300 homicides in 2025, the highest figure in its history, according to data from the Ministry of Interior.
The new security plan comes as Ecuador seeks to strengthen its institutional response to escalating violence and the growing influence of organized crime networks.
International
Foreign Medical Teams Race to Prevent Health Crisis in Venezuela Earthquake Camps
More than two weeks after the twin earthquakes that devastated parts of Venezuela and left thousands of people without homes, medical teams from several countries are working to prevent a potential health crisis in temporary shelters where survivors are living in precarious conditions.
The magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes that struck on June 24 have left more than 4,561 people dead and 16,740 injured, according to the latest government figures. The hardest-hit area has been La Guaira state, located near Caracas and considered the epicenter of the disaster.
Field hospitals from El Salvador, Mexico, the United States, Brazil and Spain are now facing the challenge of containing respiratory illnesses, gastrointestinal problems and psychological conditions linked to the tragedy.
Among those affected is 54-year-old Darwin López, one of nearly 18,000 Venezuelans who lost their homes and are now living in crowded emergency shelters set up in stadiums, parks, public squares and even sidewalks across La Guaira.
During the first three days after the earthquakes, López focused on rescuing his 44-year-old wife and their three-year-old child from the rubble of the building where they lived.
On Friday, he took another of his children, a 35-year-old man, to a U.S.-operated mobile hospital after he developed severe stomach pain.
“He had a strong stomach ache, and I took him to Pariata Hospital in La Guaira, but it was overwhelmed. So they gave us this alternative,” López told AFP while waiting outside a Samaritan’s Purse field hospital installed in large white tents.
Doctors are now treating him and his family hopes the condition is not serious, although López fears it may have been caused by contaminated food or unsafe water.
In the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, international medical teams focused primarily on treating severe trauma cases, fractures and performing emergency surgeries. However, their priorities have now shifted toward addressing post-disaster illnesses and implementing epidemiological monitoring programs to reduce the risk of disease outbreaks.
Health authorities and humanitarian organizations warn that overcrowded shelters, limited access to clean water and difficult living conditions could increase the possibility of respiratory and gastrointestinal outbreaks among thousands of displaced survivors.
International
France Holds Largest Bastille Day Military Parade as Europe Highlights Strategic Defense
France held its largest-ever Bastille Day military parade on Tuesday, with nearly 6,700 troops, 98 aircraft, 31 helicopters and 315 military vehicles marching along the iconic route from the Arc de Triomphe to Place de la Concorde.
The annual parade, held to commemorate the storming of the Bastille prison in 1789, which marked the beginning of the French Revolution, was centered this year on France’s defense capabilities and Europe’s growing security challenges.
According to the Élysée Palace, the event aimed to highlight “France’s rearmament, France’s strategic autonomy and the strategic awakening of Europe.”
Among the main guests in the presidential stand was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who received a warm welcome upon his arrival, including a greeting from French First Lady Brigitte Macron and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
Zelensky was joined by 24 European heads of state and government, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The parade also featured military contingents from 35 countries, with around 500 international participants, as well as 25 Ukrainian soldiers who took part in the ceremony.
The event came one day after a new summit in Paris of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” a group of countries committed to supporting Ukraine over the long term. Some members of the coalition have considered deploying troops to Ukraine once a ceasefire agreement with Russia is reached.
The large-scale celebration reflected France’s efforts to reinforce its role in European defense and underline unity among allies amid ongoing security concerns across the continent.
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