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International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

  • A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

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Central America

Bukele Tops Latin America’s Presidential Approval Ranking in June, Survey Finds

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, and President Laura Fernández of Costa Rica are the three highest-rated leaders in Latin America, according to the latest June 2026 presidential approval survey conducted by CB Global Data. The study places Peru’s interim president, José María Balcázar, at the bottom of the regional ranking.

Bukele leads the list with a 69.1% approval rating and a 27.6% disapproval rate, improving on the 67.5% positive image recorded in May. The Salvadoran president has maintained a state of emergency since March 2022 as the cornerstone of his anti-gang security strategy, a policy that continues to shape public perceptions of his administration.

Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president, ranks second with a 65.5% approval rating and 31% disapproval. Although she remains among the region’s most popular leaders, her support declined from the 67.8% approval registered in May.

Completing the top three is Costa Rican President Laura Fernández, who recently assumed office and now records a 56.1% favorable rating against 37.1% negative opinion. Her approval has risen significantly from the 52.7% reported a month earlier.

At the opposite end of the ranking is Peru’s interim president, José María Balcázar, who received only 18.2% positive approval while 71.7% of respondents expressed a negative view of his administration. Despite remaining last in the survey, he showed a slight improvement compared to previous measurements.

Second from the bottom is Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, with a 29.5% approval rating and 64.8% disapproval. Nevertheless, she registered the largest increase in positive perception among all leaders surveyed, gaining more than five percentage points compared with the previous month.

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo rounds out the group of lowest-rated leaders, posting a 33.1% approval rating against 63% disapproval. His support level declined from 36.9% in May.

Just outside the top three is President Luis Abinader of the Dominican Republic, who achieved a 54.8% approval rating and 42.2% disapproval, despite a decline from the 60.2% support recorded a month earlier.

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña follows with a 48.3% favorable rating and 48.2% disapproval, improving slightly compared with May. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ranks sixth with a 47.6% approval rating and 48.1% disapproval, down from 49.5% the previous month. Lula is expected to seek another term in Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 2026.

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz fell to seventh place after experiencing the largest decline in the survey. His approval rating dropped to 46.4%, while disapproval climbed to 52.3%, representing a loss of more than nine percentage points compared with May.

The CB Global Data survey, conducted across 18 Latin American countries, reflects shifting public sentiment toward regional leaders and highlights the growing influence of Central American presidents among the continent’s most highly rated governments.

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International

NGO Reports Release of 54 Political Prisoner Soldiers in Venezuela

A Venezuelan human rights organization reported on Tuesday that 54 military personnel detained for political reasons have been released, describing the measure as a positive step while stressing that hundreds of service members remain behind bars.

According to the Coalition for Human Rights and Democracy, 51 of the released detainees had been held at Ramo Verde prison in Miranda state, while three women were imprisoned at the National Institute for Female Orientation (INOF), also located in the same region. The organization said the releases should mark the beginning of a broader process aimed at freeing all military personnel imprisoned for political reasons in Venezuela.

Among those released is First Lieutenant Reinaldo Enrique Finol, who was arrested in 2020 in connection with the so-called “American Spy” case. The investigation also involved former U.S. Marine Matthew John Heath, whom Venezuelan authorities accused of conducting espionage activities at oil facilities in the state of Falcón. Heath was released in 2022 following a visit to Caracas by Roger Carstens, then the United States Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs.

In a message posted on social media, the Coalition called for the release of all political prisoners in the country, with particular attention to women who have been separated from their children and families. The organization described the liberation of the 54 military detainees as an important humanitarian development.

Ana Leonor Acosta, director of the Coalition, said there is still no official confirmation regarding the legal status of the released individuals. She explained that it remains unclear whether they were granted full freedom or released under precautionary measures, although the organization believes each case was reviewed individually before the detainees were freed.

The Coalition estimates that 213 military personnel remain imprisoned for political reasons in Venezuela. At the same time, relatives of political prisoners have continued demonstrations outside the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, urging Washington to support efforts aimed at securing the release of those who remain incarcerated.

Family members and human rights advocates argue that hundreds of political prisoners are still being held despite government announcements made earlier this year regarding the release of a significant number of detainees. Concerns have also been raised over the lack of information surrounding recent transfers of prisoners from the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN) headquarters, commonly known as El Helicoide.

The developments come amid continued international scrutiny of Venezuela’s human rights record. In May, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that his administration would work toward securing the release of all individuals imprisoned for political reasons in the South American nation.

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International

ICE to prioritize security over immigration enforcement during 2026 World Cup, says official

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will prioritize event security and the protection of attendees over immigration enforcement during the 2026 World Cup, according to its director, Tom Homan.

The tournament will be jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada from June 11 to July 19, 2026, and is expected to draw millions of visitors across the three countries.

Speaking in an interview with ABC, Homan said the agency’s main responsibility during the competition will be to prevent any security threats that could disrupt one of the world’s largest sporting events.

“We have a national security responsibility that we are going to carry out,” Homan stated, emphasizing that ICE operations during the tournament will focus on intelligence, prevention, and the protection of critical infrastructure rather than immigration enforcement actions targeting undocumented individuals.

He added that the agency’s priority will be safeguarding players, teams, fans, and stadiums throughout the event.

However, Homan clarified that immigration status could still be taken into account in cases where national security concerns arise. “If we find a national security issue and it involves an illegal alien, of course we will take action,” he said.

The comments came in response to questions about concerns from international visitors regarding possible immigration enforcement activity during the tournament.

Homan reiterated that ICE’s operational focus will remain strictly on security-related matters. Known as the “border czar” within the U.S. administration, he said the agency will concentrate on preventing risks and ensuring the safety of all participants and spectators.

The 2026 World Cup will be the first edition of the tournament to feature 48 national teams, significantly increasing travel and logistical demands across the host nations. As a result, authorities are coordinating extensive security preparations involving federal, state, and international agencies.

Officials have described the tournament as one of the most complex security and organizational challenges ever undertaken in North America, with preparations already underway to ensure its safe and orderly execution.

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