International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
US announces $1 billion security assistance package for Colombia under new government
The U.S. Department of State announced Friday that Washington plans to provide Colombia with $1 billion as part of a security assistance package aimed at supporting the new government of far-right President Abelardo de la Espriella.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump said it intends to coordinate with Congress to announce the assistance package, which was unveiled on the occasion of De la Espriella’s inauguration. The United States attended the ceremony with a delegation led by acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.
The package is designed to strengthen Colombian security forces in their fight against terrorist organizations and transnational criminal groups through U.S. technology, increased operational capabilities and coordinated operations with American forces.
The assistance would also significantly expand coca crop eradication and cocaine interdiction operations, while strengthening efforts to track and disrupt the finances of criminal organizations.
Washington also offered to support Bogotá’s efforts to restore state control over territories dominated by armed groups, protect children from forced recruitment and curb irregular migration through greater coordination along the border.
The State Department described the measures as part of a new chapter in bilateral relations between the United States and Colombia. The broader framework also includes cooperation in areas such as energy, critical minerals, infrastructure, technology and civilian nuclear energy.
Relations between Washington and Bogotá had been strained during the administration of former President Gustavo Petro, particularly over migration and security policies.
De la Espriella’s arrival in office, accompanied by promises of a hard-line approach to armed groups and drug trafficking, is expected to mark a new stage in relations between Colombia and the United States.
International
Abelardo de la Espriella sworn in as Colombia’s president for 2026-2030
Lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella was sworn in Friday as Colombia’s president for the 2026-2030 term during an inauguration ceremony held at the USC Arena of the Santiago de Cali University in Valle del Cauca.
“I swear to God and promise the Colombian people to faithfully uphold the Constitution and the laws of Colombia,” De la Espriella, 48, said as he took the oath before Senate President Honorio Henríquez, who subsequently placed the presidential sash on him, formally marking the transfer of power from former President Gustavo Petro.
At the same time, members of the Colombian Army performed the traditional 21-gun salute from the José María Córdova Military Cadet School in Bogotá. After receiving the presidential sash, De la Espriella was applauded by those attending the ceremony and greeted by his family.
The new president later swore in Vice President José Manuel Restrepo. The ceremony also included the participation of 74-year-old farmer Luis Felipe Yagüé, whom De la Espriella invited as an honorary guest as a symbol of his support for small business owners and entrepreneurs.
De la Espriella arrived at the venue with his wife, Ana Lucía Pineda, and their four minor children. More than 1,000 national and international guests attended the ceremony, which began more than an hour later than scheduled.
Among the international figures present were King Felipe VI of Spain and presidents Javier Milei of Argentina, Daniel Noboa of Ecuador, Santiago Peña of Paraguay, José Raúl Mulino of Panama, Luis Abinader of the Dominican Republic, José Antonio Kast of Chile and Nasry Asfura of Honduras. FIFA President Gianni Infantino also attended.
Former Colombian presidents César Gaviria, Andrés Pastrana, Álvaro Uribe and Iván Duque were also present. Former President Ernesto Samper and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Juan Manuel Santos, however, were not invited to the ceremony.
After the inauguration ceremony concluded, De la Espriella traveled to the Pichincha Military Canton in Cali, where he was scheduled to deliver his first address as head of state to Colombia’s senior military commanders.
International
Appeals Court blocks Trump’s White House ballroom project without congressional approval
A U.S. appeals court ruled Friday that President Donald Trump must obtain approval from Congress before moving forward with his plan to build a large ballroom on the White House grounds, at the site where the East Wing of the presidential residence previously stood.
The decision was issued in a 2-1 ruling, with the judges determining that a project of such magnitude falls under Congress’ authority and cannot be carried out solely through executive action.
In its ruling, the court sided with the National Trust for Historic Preservation, the organization that filed the lawsuit seeking to halt the construction. The judges found that the plaintiffs had convincingly demonstrated that Congress had never granted the executive branch the authority to “redesign or rebuild the White House, the People’s House, to satisfy the wishes of any particular president.”
Following the decision, Trump announced that he would appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, calling the decision incorrect.
“We will immediately appeal it to the Supreme Court,” the president wrote in a message posted on his social media platforms.
Trump also argued that the ruling could pose a security risk to the presidential complex, claiming that it threatens the safety of White House employees, future workers, visitors, heads of state, and other dignitaries.
The president has repeatedly said that the project would not require taxpayer funding and that its financing would come from private donations by business leaders close to his administration, including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.
However, a previous estimate published by The Washington Post placed the project’s cost at approximately $600 million and suggested that nearly half of the funding could come from public resources, contradicting Trump’s claims.
US announces $1 billion security assistance package for Colombia under new government
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