International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
-
A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Venezuela accuses U.S. of using Naval Deployment to pressure Maduro government
The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, joined the U.S. Navy’s anti-drug operation in Latin America on Tuesday—a deployment Venezuela has condemned as an attempt to pressure President Nicolás Maduro from power.
In a statement, the U.S. Southern Command confirmed that the carrier, ordered to deploy nearly three weeks ago, has entered its area of responsibility, which includes Latin America and the Caribbean.
“The world’s largest aircraft carrier will strengthen the United States’ ability to detect, monitor, and dismantle illicit actors and activities that threaten the security and prosperity of U.S. territory and our safety in the Western Hemisphere,” said Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
According to the White House, the U.S. government under Donald Trump has carried out about twenty operations in the Caribbean and the Pacific since early September, resulting in the deaths of 76 suspected drug traffickers.
However, U.S. authorities have not yet presented evidence that the targeted vessels were being used for drug trafficking or posed a direct threat to the country.
The operations have raised concerns in Caracas, where the Maduro administration views the deployment as a strategic move aimed at provoking regime change in Venezuela.
International
Venezuela mobilizes forces nationwide as tensions with U.S. rise
Venezuela’s armed forces launched a “massive” nationwide deployment on Tuesday in response to what the government calls “imperialist threats” from the United States, which continues its anti-drug military operation in the region and is preparing for the arrival of its most advanced aircraft carrier.
Since late August, U.S. forces have maintained a growing presence in the Caribbean to combat alleged drug trafficking originating from Colombia and Venezuela. The operation has resulted in the bombing of 20 vessels in international waters in the Caribbean and Pacific, leaving 76 people dead.
Venezuelan authorities claim the U.S. mission is aimed at toppling President Nicolás Maduro. While insisting he seeks peace, Maduro has repeatedly warned the country is prepared to defend itself and has frequently showcased military activities.
A statement from Venezuela’s Defense Ministry said the deployment includes land, air, naval, river and missile systems; armed forces units; the Bolivarian militia; and additional police, military and civilian defense structures.
State broadcaster VTV aired speeches from military leaders in various states, along with images of troops mobilizing and equipment being positioned.
However, analysts note that these frequent and highly publicized announcements do not always lead to visible operations on the ground.
On Monday, Maduro cautioned that Venezuela has the “strength and power” to respond to any aggression, including mobilizing civilians. “If imperialism were to strike and do harm, from the moment the order is given, the entire Venezuelan people would mobilize and fight,” he warned.
International
Jara: “Real toughness” means targeting drug money in Chile’s crime fight
Left-wing presidential candidate Jeannette Jara said during Chile’s final debate on Monday that the “real tough approach” to crime is to go after the financial networks behind drug trafficking and organized crime.
Rising crime, often linked in public discourse to a surge in irregular migration, has become the top concern among Chileans and has dominated the election campaign.
Although Chile’s homicide rate has nearly tripled over the past decade — from 2.5 to 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants — the country remains one of the safest in Latin America, according to the United Nations.
“I want to call on the right-wing candidates to join us in targeting those who control the money behind drug trafficking and organized crime. That is real tough action,” Jara, who is favored to win Sunday’s first-round vote, declared during the debate.
All eight candidates faced off on Monday night in the final televised confrontation before the election.
Polls — unavailable since they were suspended on November 2 — indicate that far-right candidate José Antonio Kast is likely to finish second behind Jara, but would hold the advantage in a potential December 14 runoff.
Kast is expected to consolidate support from three other right-wing contenders: Evelyn Matthei, Johannes Kaiser and Franco Parisi.
Venezuela accuses U.S. of using Naval Deployment to pressure Maduro government
Convicted gang member challenges Guatemala’s anti-gang law, citing Human Rights Violations
Venezuela mobilizes forces nationwide as tensions with U.S. rise
Tec de Monterrey honors one of its students for his contribution to nanotechnology in medicine
Defense Minister commends salvadoran soldier for Central American Cross Country victory
Extension of the state of emergency approved in southern Chile
-
International2 days agoVenezuela mobilizes forces nationwide as tensions with U.S. rise
-
Internacionales4 days agoEl Salvador sends medical Aid and relief teams to Jamaica after hurricane Melissa
-
International2 days agoRecord cold wave freezes Eastern U.S., iguanas falling from trees in Florida
-
International3 days agoFour dead, 44 injured in riot at Ecuador prison as gang violence intensifies
-
International3 days agoU.S. Senate holds emergency session as shutdown threatens economy
-
Internacionales4 days agoU.S. to restore ambassador-level relations with Bolivia after 17 years
-
International2 days agoInvestigation widens after Michoacán mayor’s killer shot post-arrest
-
Internacionales4 days agoRodrigo Paz takes office in Bolivia, ending 20 years of Socialist Rule
-
International2 days agoUSS Gerald R. Ford arrives in Latin America amid rising U.S. military presence
-
International2 days agoJara: “Real toughness” means targeting drug money in Chile’s crime fight
-
International2 days agoPeru opens new probe into ex-president Humala over killings and forced disappearances
-
International13 hours agoVenezuela accuses U.S. of using Naval Deployment to pressure Maduro government
-
Sin categoría13 hours agoConvicted gang member challenges Guatemala’s anti-gang law, citing Human Rights Violations