International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
At least 10 dead and 20 injured in highway crash near Morelia
The accident occurred on the highway connecting Morelia, the capital of Michoacán, with the town of Pátzcuaro, the Morelia police reported in a statement.
“Preliminary information indicates there are around 10 fatalities and nearly 20 people injured. Emergency teams are carrying out extraction efforts and providing medical assistance at the scene,” the department said. It added that traffic on the roadway remains closed while rescue crews continue their work.
So far, authorities have not specified the cause of the crash.
Road accidents are common in Mexico, often caused by excessive speed or poor vehicle maintenance, particularly involving buses or cargo trucks.
In September, a truck carrying nearly 50,000 liters of gas exploded at an intersection in Mexico City, resulting in 32 deaths.
International
Democrats press prince Andrew for testimony as Epstein probe intensifies
Sixteen Democratic lawmakers have signed a letter urging Prince Andrew to participate in a “transcribed interview” with the U.S. House Oversight Committee, which is investigating the Epstein case. Epstein died by suicide in 2019 while jailed and awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges.
The letter asked Andrew — the younger brother of King Charles III and now referred to as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor after being stripped of his royal titles due to his association with Epstein — to respond by November 20.
“Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s silence in response to the Oversight Committee Democrats’ request for testimony speaks volumes,” said Representatives Robert Garcia and Suhas Subramanyan, both members of the committee, in a statement released on Friday.
“The documents we have reviewed, along with public records and the testimony of Virginia Roberts Giuffre, raise serious questions he must answer, yet he continues to hide.”
Giuffre, a U.S.-Australian citizen who died by suicide in April, wrote in posthumous memoirs that she had been forced into sexual encounters with Andrew on three occasions — the first two when she was 17.
International
President Sheinbaum Hails Fátima Bosch’s Miss Universe Win as a Victory for Women’s Voices
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum praised Fátima Bosch on Friday for winning the Miss Universe 2025 title, recognizing her as a symbol of courage for Mexican women and highlighting her stance against an act of injustice during the international pageant.
Bosch, a native of Tabasco, claimed the crown at the competition held in Thailand. Her participation drew significant attention following an incident involving the director of Miss Universe Thailand, Nawat Itsaragrisil, who told her to remain silent for not sharing event-related content on her social media platforms. The remark prompted Bosch to walk out of the room in protest, an action supported by several other contestants.
President Sheinbaum denounced expressions like “you look prettier when you’re quiet,” asserting: “Women look more beautiful when we speak up and participate. And she raised her voice, saying, ‘This is unjust, I don’t agree.’”
Fátima Bosch, 25, became the fourth Mexican woman to win the Miss Universe crown, joining Lupita Jones (1991), Ximena Navarrete (2010), and Andrea Meza (2020).
Bosch triumphed over Thailand’s Veena Praveenar, who placed as first runner-up, and Venezuela’s Stephany Abasaly, who took third place. This year’s pageant featured contestants from 120 countries and territories, including nine mothers, one transgender woman, a genocide survivor, and the first-ever Palestinian contestant in the competition’s history.
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