International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Ninth Victim Recovered After Deadliest U.S. Avalanche in Decades

Rescue teams in California on Saturday recovered the body of the ninth and final victim of a deadly avalanche in the Sierra Nevada mountains, according to the local sheriff’s office.

The avalanche struck a group of 11 skiers and four guides on Tuesday as they were returning from a three-day backcountry trip near Castle Peak, a 2,777-meter (9,111-foot) mountain and popular tourist destination on the U.S. West Coast.

Six people were rescued alive on Tuesday. Authorities said the incident marks the deadliest avalanche in the United States since 1981.

“All nine individuals who lost their lives in the February 17 Castle Peak avalanche have been safely recovered from the mountain,” the Nevada County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement.

“There are no words that can truly capture the magnitude of this loss, and our hearts grieve alongside the families affected by this catastrophic event,” Sheriff Shannan Moon said.

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Officials had warned on Thursday that search operations would likely continue through the weekend due to severe weather conditions in the area.

Survivors were able to call for help shortly after the avalanche occurred. However, near-zero visibility and the risk of additional snow slides prevented rescue teams from reaching them for several hours.

International

Trump Defies Supreme Court With New 10% Global Tariff

Defiant in the face of a judicial setback, Donald Trump on Friday imposed a new across-the-board 10% tariff after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that he does not have the authority to levy customs duties under the guise of a national emergency.

The Republican president signed the order in the Oval Office and announced on social media that the measure would take effect “almost immediately.” According to a statement from the White House, the decree will formally enter into force on February 24 for a period of 150 days.

It remains unclear whether the new tariff will apply to countries that have already negotiated trade agreements establishing rates higher than 10%.

Earlier in the day, the conservative-majority court ruled that a 1977 law cited by Trump to abruptly impose tariffs on individual countries — disrupting global trade — “does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.”

Trump said he was “deeply disappointed” by the decision and accused some justices of being influenced by “foreign interests.”

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Although he has made variable tariffs a cornerstone of his foreign policy, Trump acknowledged that it is uncertain whether the government will have to refund revenue already collected. A study by the University of Pennsylvaniaestimated that the amount at stake could reach as much as $175 billion.

“That issue was not addressed by the Court,” Trump told reporters, warning that the legal battle could drag on for “years.”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who dissented from the Court’s 6–3 majority opinion, cautioned that the legal process could become a “mess.”

Trump denied any error or haste in using tariffs as a policy tool, arguing instead that the six justices who ruled against him were motivated by “political correctness.” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the Court had acted “outside the law.”

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International

U.S. Targets Members of Outgoing Boric Administration With Visa Revocations

The United States government announced on Friday the revocation of visas for three Chilean officials—whose identities were not initially disclosed—citing activities that allegedly “undermined regional security,” an accusation that Chile denies.

In a statement, the U.S. Department of State did not provide specific details about the individuals involved but criticized the outgoing administration of leftist President Gabriel Boric.

“The legacy of the Boric government will be further tarnished by actions that undermine regional security to the ultimate detriment of the Chilean people,” the statement read. It was signed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Chile’s Minister of Transport, Juan Carlos Muñoz, later confirmed in a video message to the press that he is among those sanctioned.

“I was recently informed that my visa to enter the United States has been revoked by that country, which I deeply regret,” Muñoz said.

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The U.S. statement also noted that Washington hopes to “advance shared priorities, including those that strengthen security in our hemisphere, with the upcoming Kast government.”

The electoral victory of ultraconservative leader José Antonio Kast was welcomed in Washington, which has been building alliances with like-minded governments in the region to reinforce its diplomatic and economic agenda—particularly in response to China’s growing investment presence in Latin America.

“We remain committed to promoting accountability for Chilean individuals who deliberately work to destabilize our hemisphere,” the statement concluded.