International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Tensions Escalate in Middle East as U.S. Bombs Iran After Maritime Attacks
The United States launched new strikes against Iran on Wednesday, following President Donald Trump’s warning that Washington would “hit hard” against the Islamic Republic. While Trump ordered the retaliation after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, he also said he hoped the latest wave of bombings would end soon and left the door open for renewed negotiations.
U.S. forces “have begun carrying out additional strikes against Iran to further reduce its ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” the United States Central Command said in a post on X.
Washington blamed Iran for what it described as “recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping.”
Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported that explosions were heard in the port cities of Bandar Abbas, Konarak, and Chabahar.
“This is in retaliation for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will be much worse,” Trump wrote on social media alongside an image showing what appeared to be a bombing at an Iranian location.
Before ordering the strikes, the U.S. president said that the ceasefire with Iran had ended. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar called for de-escalation, while the United Nations also urged both sides to reduce tensions.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint in the Middle East conflict, which began in late February after U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran-linked attacks on at least three vessels in recent days triggered a U.S. offensive against Iranian targets on Tuesday. Tehran responded by launching attacks against Gulf countries that are allies of Washington.
International
Deadly Drug Trade Rivalry Suspected After Eight Bodies Discovered in Southern Mexico
Eight bodies were found Wednesday along a highway in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, near the border with Guatemala, in an incident authorities believe may be linked to a dispute over local drug sales.
The victims — six men and two women — were found abandoned on a road in a mountainous area of the municipality of El Bosque, according to the state prosecutor’s office in a statement published on Facebook.
Initial investigations indicate that the killings may be connected to “a dispute over retail drug sales between local criminal groups operating in the region,” the prosecutor’s office said.
Local media reports that several criminal incidents have increased in the area since the beginning of the year.
The road where the bodies were discovered is located in a mountainous region largely inhabited by Indigenous communities. Authorities have not released further details about the victims or possible suspects as the investigation continues.
Central America
Regional Naval Operations Strike Drug Cartels, Disrupting Cocaine and Weapons Trafficking Routes
Transnational operations carried out by regional naval forces, including El Salvador’s National Navy, the United States Coast Guard, and Mexico’s Secretariat of the Navy (SEMAR), have dealt significant blows to international drug trafficking organizations.
The operations have not only led to the seizure of massive cocaine shipments, such as the 6.68 metric tons of cocaine valued at approximately $167 million presented last Wednesday by El Salvador’s Security Cabinet, but have also resulted in the confiscation of high-powered weapons allegedly intended as payment to criminal organizations, according to Security Minister Gustavo Villatoro.
“Based on the strength of the data, not just the narratives, we can state that our National Navy has documented the only known operation in the Pacific Ocean in which a criminal organization from the south was transporting drugs and exchanging them with a group from the north for firearms,” Villatoro said.
The exchange of weapons for drugs between criminal groups in the Pacific Ocean represents a logistical method in which South American cartels from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador negotiate with Mexican and Central American organizations to trade military-grade weapons for cocaine shipments.
Regional naval authorities have identified that meeting points located farther from the coastline in international waters make it easier for armed groups to receive supplies and carry out exchanges undetected. As a result, El Salvador’s National Navy deploys teams from the Trident Naval Task Force (FTNT) aboard maritime patrol vessels to intercept these operations.
Initially, the patrol units are ordered to travel up to 200 nautical miles offshore, but later receive instructions from the Maritime Operations Center to extend their missions beyond 1,000 nautical miles, reaching coordinates used by drug trafficking vessels operating in the open sea.
“We cannot lose focus on the routes these criminal organizations use to move drugs,” Minister Villatoro said, emphasizing the importance of maintaining surveillance over the various maritime corridors used for narcotics trafficking.
Tensions Escalate in Middle East as U.S. Bombs Iran After Maritime Attacks
Deadly Drug Trade Rivalry Suspected After Eight Bodies Discovered in Southern Mexico
Regional Naval Operations Strike Drug Cartels, Disrupting Cocaine and Weapons Trafficking Routes
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