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Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

  • A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

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International

Rush for Air Conditioners Sparks Tensions at French Supermarkets Ahead of New Heatwave

Scenes of long lines, overcrowded stores and customer disputes unfolded across France on Thursday as shoppers rushed to buy air conditioners and fans ahead of another expected heatwave.

The buying frenzy comes as the country continues to recover from last week’s extreme temperatures, which exceeded 40°C (104°F) in several areas and produced the warmest night on record, with an average temperature of 22°C (71.6°F). Authorities have linked the heatwave to at least 1,000 excess deaths.

Demand for cooling appliances has surged in recent days, prompting heavy traffic at appliance retailers. The situation intensified on Thursday when German discount supermarket chain Lidl launched a promotion on portable air conditioners and electric fans.

Videos shared on social media showed large crowds gathering outside stores, with customers pushing and rushing to secure the discounted products.

“Lidl France regrets the incidents that occurred in its stores,” the company told AFP, adding that employees were forced to manage tense situations in what it described as a challenging environment.

Outside a Lidl store in northwestern Paris, dozens of customers began lining up as early as 7:00 a.m., two hours before opening, while police monitored the crowd, according to an AFP journalist at the scene.

Although many shoppers remained in good spirits, tensions escalated as some people attempted to cut in line. “I will not open the store until they leave,” a store manager reportedly shouted as frustrated customers protested.

The situation worsened after customers discovered that the store, located in a working-class district of Paris, had only two air conditioning units available for sale.

One of the successful buyers, Lassana, who declined to provide his last name, said he had queued since 4:00 a.m. to secure one of the units.

Another customer, 69-year-old Fatou, was only able to purchase a small fan after what he described as a struggle. He criticized Lidl’s advertising as “misleading,” claiming police had temporarily closed access to the store because of the crowds.

Lidl France attributed the shortages to its fixed annual purchasing cycle, explaining that the promotional products had been ordered a year in advance and were offered at predetermined prices, limiting the available stock.

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International

Peru Expands Emergency Measures Ahead of Heavy El Niño Rains

Peru has declared a state of emergency in 796 districts across 22 regions due to the imminent threat of heavy rainfall linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon, the government announced on Thursday.

El Niño, which causes unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, disrupts global wind and rainfall patterns, often triggering extreme weather events. In Peru, the phenomenon has already driven temperatures up to 26 degrees Celsius, around five degrees above the seasonal average.

According to Peru’s National Center for Disaster Risk Estimation, Prevention and Reduction (Cenepred), more than 9.3 million people are at very high risk of flooding and landslides associated with El Niño.

Interim President José María Balcázar signed a decree extending an emergency measure that has been in effect since January, allowing authorities to implement immediate response and recovery actions in affected areas.

Under the decree, regional and local governments, working alongside Civil Defense and supported by national ministries, are authorized to take extraordinary measures to protect communities and critical infrastructure from the expected impacts of heavy rainfall.

“We have declared a state of emergency in 796 districts across 22 regions due to intense rainfall associated with the El Niño phenomenon for a period of 60 days,” the Presidency of the Council of Ministers said in a statement.

Peru is divided into approximately 1,800 municipalities.

The country’s agency responsible for monitoring El Niño recently upgraded its forecast for the phenomenon from moderate to strong for the period between June and September, with conditions expected to persist through the first quarter of 2027.

Scientists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimate there is a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between November and January, potentially making it one of the most intense events recorded since 1950.

Peru last experienced El Niño in 2023, when flooding and landslides claimed 99 lives.

The country’s most devastating El Niño events occurred in 1997-1998, leaving around 500 people dead and reducing gross domestic product (GDP) by 6%, and in 1982-1983, when approximately 9,000 people died and the economy contracted by 11.6%.

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International

Three Die During World Cup Celebrations in Mexico City After Mexico’s Victory

Three people died in Mexico City while celebrating Mexico’s 2-0 victory over Ecuador at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, local authorities confirmed on Wednesday.

According to the city’s Health Secretariat, the victims—a 44-year-old man, a 48-year-old woman, and a 19-year-old woman—died from asphyxiation following the post-match celebrations.

Emergency services were dispatched to the Juárez district after reports that three people had lost consciousness shortly after Tuesday night’s match.

Paramedics, firefighters, and police officers responded to the scene, where the victims received first aid and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) before being transported to a hospital for specialized medical care. Despite the efforts of medical personnel, all three were later pronounced dead.

“We are in contact with their families to provide all the support they need,” Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada Molinasaid in a statement posted on social media.

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“With my hand on my heart, I extend my deepest condolences to their loved ones. We once again call on everyone to celebrate with responsibility, care, and empathy,” she added.

Mexico’s victory over Ecuador sparked massive celebrations at the Estadio Azteca and across the capital. Goals from Raúl Jiménez and Julián Quiñones secured the hosts’ place in the Round of 16, where they are set to face either England or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, who meet on Wednesday in Atlanta.

Should Mexico advance to the quarterfinals, the team would face either Brazil, coached by Carlo Ancelotti, or Norway.

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