International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Wildfires in France Burn Nearly Three Times More Land Than in 2025, Interior Minister Says
More than 50,000 hectares of land have been destroyed by wildfires across France since the beginning of the year, nearly three times the area affected during the same period in 2025, French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said Friday in an interview with AFP.
Emergency crews are currently battling several major fires, including one near the popular Cap Ferret peninsula, where flames have already consumed more than 10,000 hectares, making it the largest wildfire of the season so far, according to the minister.
“Currently, we have 32 fires underway, which obviously do not all have the same level of importance,” Nuñez said.
“We have exceeded the threshold of 50,000 hectares burned since January 1 of this year. It is practically three times more than during the same period last year,” he added.
Despite the extensive resources deployed and the long hours worked by emergency teams — estimated to be two and a half times higher than last year — Nuñez said authorities remain “calm” and “determined” to contain the situation.
The minister acknowledged that the main concern is the fatigue affecting firefighters and emergency personnel who have been working under demanding conditions.
“The concern, if there has to be one, obviously lies in the state of exhaustion of the men and women who are committed. We have to hold on throughout the entire season,” Nuñez said.
France’s late spring and early summer have been marked by repeated periods of extreme heat, conditions linked by scientists to climate change and considered a major factor contributing to the increase in wildfire activity across the country.
International
Israel Says Saudi Recognition Would Mark ‘Historic Breakthrough’ for Middle East Peace
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel would represent a “historic breakthrough” toward achieving peace in the Middle East.
The statement came after the United States and Saudi Arabia announced an agreement on Wednesday to establish a civil nuclear program in the kingdom. U.S. President Donald Trump said the initiative would be linked to Riyadh’s decision to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel.
“Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords would represent a historic breakthrough toward peace in the Middle East,” Netanyahu’s office said following Trump’s announcement.
The statement added that recent developments, including joint military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran, as well as Israel’s efforts against what it described as Iran’s “terror axis,” have created new opportunities to expand regional diplomatic ties.
“The joint U.S.-Israeli military action against the genocidal regime in Tehran and Israel’s defeat of Iran’s terror axis have created the possibility of expanding the circle of peace,” the statement said.
A potential normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia would represent a major diplomatic shift in the region, as Riyadh has long been viewed as one of the key countries whose formal recognition could significantly reshape Middle Eastern relations.
International
Nicolás Maduro’s Son Calls U.S. Trial Against His Father and Cilia Flores “Unjust”
Venezuelan lawmaker Nicolás Maduro Guerra on Wednesday described as “unjust” the legal proceedings in the United States against his father, ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, following their capture in Caracas on January 3 by U.S. forces.
“Faced with the unjust trial taking place today, the people raised their voices with a single demand: We demand the immediate release of President Nicolás Maduro and the First Lady,” Maduro Guerra wrote on his Instagram account.
The lawmaker attended a rally in Caracas where supporters of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)gathered to show support for the former president, who faces charges in the United States including conspiracy to commit narco-terrorism and cocaine importation. Flores is accused of crimes related to drug trafficking and weapons possession.
The event was also attended by PSUV Vice President for Mobilizations and Events Nahum Fernández and Caracas Mayor Carmen Meléndez, according to photos shared by Maduro’s son.
The third hearing in the case against Maduro and Flores concluded Wednesday at a federal court in New York after lasting only about 18 minutes. During the hearing, the judge preliminarily set June 2027 as the expected start date for the trial.
One of the main arguments from the defense will focus on immunity. Maduro’s lead attorney, Barry Pollack, who has also represented WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, said the defense plans to request immunity for both defendants, arguing that Maduro was serving as head of state and Flores as first lady at the time of their detention.
Both Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty during their first court appearance in New York on January 5.
Meanwhile, Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed power after Maduro’s capture, has not yet commented on Wednesday’s hearing in the United States.
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