International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Pilot killed and two Pennsylvania state troopers injured in mid-air collision

A pilot was killed and two Pennsylvania state police officers were injured when a Cessna 150 airplane collided with the helicopter they were traveling in during a routine training exercise at a regional airport in the state.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro identified the officers as Corporal Bryce Corman and Trooper Jason Mills, members of the Pennsylvania State Police aviation unit. Both are expected to recover from their injuries, according to ABC.

The county coroner’s office identified the pilot as 57-year-old Paul Sokoloski.

George Bivens, acting commissioner of the Pennsylvania State Police, said the collision occurred at around 6:50 p.m. Wednesday. The helicopter was flying several feet above a grassy area near a runway at Carlisle Regional Airport when the small plane approached from behind.

According to investigators, the Cessna suddenly veered to the right moments before the collision, striking the helicopter’s tail rotor before also hitting its main rotor.

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The airplane crashed a short distance away and broke into several pieces, while the helicopter lost its tail and other components before crashing on its side.

Police said Corporal Corman opened a window and helped Trooper Mills escape from the helicopter because they feared the aircraft could catch fire.

The Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board are investigating the circumstances surrounding the crash.

International

Argentina’s Milei Links Low Birth Rates to Abortion and Feminism

Argentine President Javier Milei on Thursday blamed feminism and the legalization of abortion for the country’s declining birth rate, arguing that the demographic trend is creating economic and pension-system challenges.

“We are paying a very high price for the madness of the green scarves,” Milei said during a speech at the Council of the Americas in Buenos Aires, referring to the symbol associated with the feminist movement and the campaign for legal abortion in Argentina.

According to Milei, Argentina is failing to reach the population growth and birth rates needed to maintain demographic replacement.

He also linked the decline in births to future challenges for the country’s pension system and workforce.

“That passion for killing children in the mother’s womb is costing us in terms of growth and pensions. It is also costing us in terms of human capital,” the president said.

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Milei has consistently opposed abortion, which has been legal in Argentina since 2020. The law was considered a major victory for the feminist movement across Latin America at the time of its approval.

In February 2024, lawmakers from Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party introduced a bill seeking to repeal voluntary abortion legislation.

Under Argentina’s current law, abortion is legal, safe and free of charge up to the 14th week of pregnancy. After that period, it is permitted when the pregnancy poses a risk to the woman’s life or health, or when it resulted from rape.

Milei has repeatedly criticized abortion

The Argentine president has also criticized abortion and feminism in international forums. During his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2024, he attacked the feminist movement and denounced what he described as the “bloody agenda of abortion.”

His latest comments come amid growing concerns over Argentina’s demographic outlook and the potential long-term effects of declining birth rates on economic growth, the labor force and social security.

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International

Virginia Police Arrest Salvadoran Man in Great Falls Woman’s Killing

Alexis Antonio Cedillos-Campos, 19, identified by federal officials as an undocumented immigrant from El Salvador, was arrested in connection with the death of Carmen Lizet Puch, 42, who was found dead Monday, the Fairfax County Police Department said.

Authorities said Cedillos-Campos and Puch were coworkers and were also involved in an “intimate relationship.”

“Our victim suffered numerous stab wounds in a truly brutal and indescribable manner,” Police Chief Kevin Davis said during a news conference Wednesday.

Investigators said surveillance video showed Cedillos-Campos at the restaurant where he and Puch worked, allegedly taking a fixed-blade knife, a pair of black latex gloves and a bottle of water before leaving.

“He left with the intent to harm and kill the victim,” Davis said.

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Cedillos-Campos was arrested Wednesday morning in Maryland and confessed to the killing, according to Davis. He is awaiting extradition to Virginia. Authorities have not said whether he has an attorney representing him.

The Department of Homeland Security said Cedillos-Campos had previously been arrested by U.S. Customs and Border Protection in 2024 after allegedly crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally near El Paso, Texas.