International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

U.S. Senate Rejects Budget, Bringing Government Closer to Shutdown Amid DHS Dispute

The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday against a budget proposal in a move aimed at pressuring changes at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), following the killing of two civilians during a deployment of immigration agents in Minneapolis.

All Senate Democrats and seven Republican lawmakers voted against the bill, which requires 60 votes to advance, pushing the country closer to a partial government shutdown that would cut funding for several agencies, including the Pentagon and the Department of Health.

The rejection came as Senate leaders and the White House continue negotiations on a separate funding package for DHS that would allow reforms to the agency. Proposed measures include banning Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents from wearing face coverings and requiring them to use body-worn cameras during operations.

The vote took place just hours after President Donald Trump said he was “close” to reaching an agreement with Democrats and did not believe the federal government would face another shutdown, following last year’s record stoppage.

“I don’t think the Democrats want a shutdown either, so we’ll work in a bipartisan way to avoid it. Hopefully, there will be no government shutdown. We’re working on that right now,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.

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International

Trump Says Putin Agreed to One-Week Halt in Attacks on Ukraine Amid Extreme Cold

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he secured a commitment from Russian President Vladimir Putinto halt attacks against Ukraine for one week, citing extreme weather conditions affecting the region.

“Because of the extreme cold (…) I personally asked Putin not to attack Kyiv or other cities and towns for a week. And he agreed. He was very pleasant,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting broadcast by the White House.

Trump acknowledged that several advisers had questioned the decision to make the call.
“A lot of people told me not to waste the call because they wouldn’t agree. And he accepted. And we’re very happy they did, because they don’t need missiles hitting their towns and cities,” the president said.

According to Trump, Ukrainian authorities reacted with surprise to the announcement but welcomed the possibility of a temporary ceasefire.
“It’s extraordinarily cold, record cold (…) They say they’ve never experienced cold like this,” he added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later commented on the announcement, expressing hope that the agreement would be honored.

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International

Storm Kristin Kills Five in Portugal, Leaves Nearly 500,000 Without Power

Storm Kristin, which battered Portugal with heavy rain and strong winds early Wednesday, has left at least five people dead, while nearly half a million residents remained without electricity as of Thursday, according to updated figures from authorities.

The revised death toll was confirmed to AFP by a spokesperson for the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority (ANPEC). On Wednesday, the agency had reported four fatalities.

Meanwhile, E-Redes, the country’s electricity distribution network operator, said that around 450,000 customers were still without power, particularly in central Portugal.

Emergency services responded to approximately 1,500 incidents between midnight and 8:00 a.m. local time on Wednesday, as the storm caused widespread disruptions.

The Portuguese government described Kristin as an “extreme weather event” that inflicted significant damage across several regions of the country. At the height of the storm, as many as 850,000 households and institutions lost electricity during the early hours of Wednesday.

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Several municipalities ordered the closure of schools, many of which remained shut on Thursday due to ongoing adverse conditions.

Ricardo Costa, regional deputy commander of the Leiria Fire Brigade, said residents continue to seek assistance as rainfall persists.
“Even though the rain is not extremely intense, it is causing extensive damage to homes,” he noted.

In Figueira da Foz, a coastal city in central Portugal, strong winds toppled a giant Ferris wheel, underscoring the severity of the storm.