International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Trump moves to reclassify marijuana as less dangerous substance

Former U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous addictive substance, a move aimed at encouraging medical research without immediately opening the door to federal-level decriminalization.

Trump said that “people were begging” him to make the decision, particularly individuals suffering from chronic pain. He stressed, however, that the measure “is not at all a decriminalization” of marijuana for non-medical use.

“I’ve always told my children: don’t use drugs, don’t drink, don’t smoke,” Trump added. He is a well-known teetotaler.

A senior government official described the decision as “common sense” during a briefing with reporters, noting that marijuana and CBD-based products — a compound derived from cannabis known for its relaxing properties — are already widely used in the United States by patients dealing with chronic pain.

Most U.S. states currently allow the use of cannabis for medical purposes, and more than 20 states, along with the nation’s capital, Washington, D.C., have also legalized recreational use.

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International

Shakira’s El Salvador concerts sell out in hours, fans demand more dates

The sell-out of all three announced Shakira concerts in El Salvador in less than 24 hours has sparked a collective call for additional dates, highlighting an overwhelming demand that transcends borders and positions the country as a cultural hub in Central America.

Ticket sales for Shakira’s Central American residency confirmed the artist’s massive impact across the region. The three shows scheduled for February 12, 14, and 15 in El Salvador sold out in under 24 hours, triggering an immediate public response from fans who were unable to secure tickets and are now urging promoters to open new dates, according to an official statement from promoters Two Shows and Fenix Entertainment.

Even before ticket sales officially opened, thousands of people joined virtual queues that exceeded the usual capacity of the country’s ticketing platforms. Despite logging in early and waiting for hours, many users were unable to complete their purchases and were ultimately left without tickets, Two Shows reported.

The unprecedented demand was widely documented through screenshots, testimonials, and social media posts, showing slow-moving waiting lists, ticketing websites overwhelmed by traffic, and purchase processes that failed to go through despite users following all required steps within the designated timeframes.

According to the organizers, demand to see Shakira perform in El Salvador remains strong even after the sell-out. Meanwhile, hotels have reported booking inquiries beyond the announced concert dates, pointing to a larger-than-expected tourism influx tied to the event.

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International

Rubio rules out 2028 presidential bid if Vance runs

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would not seek the presidency in 2028 if current Vice President JD Vancedecides to run as the Republican nominee to succeed President Donald Trump.

“If JD Vance runs for president, he will be our candidate, and I will be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio said in an interview with Vanity Fair, in which he appeared alongside other senior members of the presidential cabinet.

Rubio, 54, and Vance, 41, are widely viewed as two of the leading Republican figures who could headline the party’s ticket in the 2028 election. Under the U.S. Constitution, Trump is barred from seeking another term after completing two presidential mandates.

In a lighthearted moment during the interview, Vance jokingly offered photographers $1,000 if they managed to make him look better than Rubio in the photos. Both leaders have received public backing from Trump, who last October floated the idea of a joint ticket featuring Rubio and Vance, without clarifying who would lead it.

“I think that if they ever teamed up, they would be unstoppable. I don’t think anyone would run against us,” Trump said at the time.

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White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who also took part in the interview, confirmed that Trump does not intend to violate the 22nd Amendment, which prohibits a third presidential term, though she acknowledged that the president is “having fun” with speculation about a possible return to office.

Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, served as a Republican senator from 2010 to 2025. He sought the party’s presidential nomination in 2016 but was defeated by Trump after a bruising primary contest. His name was floated as a potential vice presidential pick in 2024, but Vance ultimately secured the spot. After taking office, Trump appointed Rubio as secretary of state, making him the first Latino to hold the position.