International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Exclusive Tucson Neighborhood Shaken by Disappearance of Savannah Guthrie’s Mother

The disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, mother of well-known U.S. journalist Savannah Guthrie, has shaken the exclusive Catalina Foothills neighborhood in northern Tucson, Arizona. For the past eleven days, the area has become the focus of an intensive investigation and constant media attention.

The 84-year-old woman was last seen on January 31, when she returned home after a family dinner. Since then, authorities have released few details about the suspected abduction.

“It is worrying that an elderly person could be the victim of a crime like this in her own home; we are a community of retirees,” Mario Ruiz, a resident who lives near the property, told EFE.

He explained that neighbors in the area tend to respect each other’s privacy, and many homes do not even have fences, surrounded only by the desert landscape about 110 kilometers from the Mexican border.

Support for the family is visible in an improvised altar set up outside Guthrie’s house. Flowers, candles and a message written on a stone — “Please pray, bring her home” — reflect the concern felt by the community.

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During a visit to Catalina Foothills on Wednesday, a strong presence of FBI agents could be seen patrolling nearby roads and neighborhoods in search of any clue that might help locate Guthrie.

Officers have been checking bushes, trash containers and surrounding areas near the residence, which is located in one of Tucson’s most exclusive districts, close to shopping centers, private golf courses and resorts.

International

Over 50 Civil Groups Urge House to Impeach DHS Secretary Kristi Noem

More than 50 civil society organizations, including Latino collectives and migrant advocacy groups, on Tuesday urged the U.S. House of Representatives to open impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, whom they accuse of leading a migration policy that is “violent, reckless, and contrary to the Constitution.”

The request was submitted through a letter sent to House Speaker Mike Johnson and other legislative leaders. In the document, the organizations argue that Noem has encouraged repressive practices that have left multiple victims and have “intentionally undermined the mission of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).”

Among the signatories are Voto Latino, Freedom for Immigrants (FFI), Hispanic Federation, UnidosUS, and the Latino Victory Project. The groups emphasized that at least 187 lawmakers already support the impeachment initiative introduced in January by Representative Robin Kelly for alleged “high crimes and misdemeanors.”

The accusations include the alleged obstruction of congressional access to migrant detention centers and the excessive use of force, with at least 14 people shot since July 2025. They also cite three documented deaths, including those of U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti.

The organizations further criticized the detention of migrant children, pointing to the case of five-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos, arrested in Minnesota last month, which sparked nationwide controversy.

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They also denounced that operations carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have resulted in due process violations, unlawful detentions of Indigenous citizens, and disregard for court orders. According to the signatories, Noem has “dismantled” civil rights protections within the DHS and has shown a lack of understanding of constitutional principles such as habeas corpus.

Central America

Guatemala to Phase Out Longstanding Medical Cooperation Agreement with Cuba

Guatemala’s government announced on Tuesday that it will end this year a cooperation agreement with Cuba that has brought doctors from the Caribbean nation to work in the Central American country.

Guatemala’s Health Ministry told EFE that the program, which has been in place for nearly three decades, will be phased out progressively throughout 2026.

According to the same source, there are currently 412 Cubans in Guatemala under the agreement, including 333 physicians.

Cuban medical brigades assigned to Guatemala have traditionally been deployed to various regions of the country to provide primary health care to local communities.

“The decision follows a technical assessment aimed at strengthening the sustainability of the national workforce and consolidating the public health system’s own capacities,” the Guatemalan ministry said.

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Earlier this week, lawmaker Sonia Gutiérrez, from the left-wing Winaq party, warned that the move “could be an inhumane act that threatens the health and lives of the country’s most vulnerable populations,” given the historic importance of Cuban doctors in providing medical care.

For that reason, the legislator summoned Health Ministry authorities to Congress, as permitted by law, to provide further details about the decision.

Former human rights ombudsman Jordán Rodas Andrade also weighed in on social media, recalling that “for 27 years Cuban doctors have been the backbone of health care in Guatemala’s most neglected areas,” and stressing that “ending this agreement is an act of ingratitude that leaves the most vulnerable unprotected.”

President Bernardo Arévalo’s government told EFE that, in order to guarantee continued care, it will implement a gradual replacement plan that includes hiring national personnel.