International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Mexico City prepares for 13 million pilgrims at Basilica of Guadalupe
The Mexico City government is expecting at least 13 million pilgrims to visit the Basilica of Our Lady of Guadalupe for the December 12 celebrations honoring Mexico’s patron saint. To ensure the safety and care of visitors, authorities have launched the “Basilica Operation,” mobilizing more than 105,000 public servants.
Mayor Clara Brugada stated that the operation began on December 5 and will continue until December 14, covering the peak of visits to the basilica, located in the Gustavo A. Madero borough in the north of the city.
Key measures include reinforcement of the Metro public transport system, particularly at stations near the sanctuary, the installation of three helipads for medical emergencies, and the involvement of Civil Protection brigades, health ministry personnel, and public safety officers.
Secretary of Public Security Pablo Vázquez explained that the deployment also includes 255 patrol units and numerous specialized teams to manage crowds, traffic, and emergency situations, aiming to guarantee a secure experience for all pilgrims.
Central America
Mexico and Guatemala launch joint security operation after Agua Zarca border attack
The Government of Mexico announced on Tuesday that it has strengthened coordination with Guatemala following an armed confrontation in the community of Agua Zarca, in Guatemala’s Huehuetenango department, where a soldier was wounded in an attack attributed to organized-crime groups operating on both sides of the border.
The Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch, confirmed that Mexico is exchanging information with Guatemalan authorities and that Mexican Army units have been deployed along the border to reinforce surveillance and assist in reconnaissance operations.
The attack, Guatemala’s Defense Ministry stated, reflects the “criminal dynamics” dominating that border region, where different groups compete for drug and arms trafficking routes.
According to Guatemala’s Defense Ministry, the clash left a soldier wounded in the leg after suspected criminals crossed from Mexico and opened fire. The wounded soldier is reportedly in stable condition. Authorities also seized high-caliber weapons, explosives, tactical gear and drones, which were handed over for forensic analysis.
Mexican Defense Secretary General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo announced that a coordinated plan of operations will be launched involving both Mexican and Guatemalan forces along the border to counter these criminal networks.
Harfuch emphasized that the violence is not isolated but symptomatic of the ongoing struggle between criminal organizations for territorial control, and reiterated Mexico’s commitment to bilateral security cooperation and its intention to strengthen institutional presence in vulnerable border zones.
International
Zelensky meets Pope Leo XIV as review of U.S. peace plan continues
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met on Tuesday with Pope Leo XIV in Italy, after pledging to deliver a response to the United States regarding the proposed peace plan aimed at ending the war with Russia.
The meeting with the pontiff took place at the papal residence in Castel Gandolfo, near Rome, where Leo XIV “reiterated the need to continue dialogue and renewed his urgent hope that the ongoing diplomatic initiatives may lead to a just and lasting peace,” the Vatican said in a statement.
His visit to Italy follows Monday’s meetings with European leaders in London and Brussels, amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to agree to a peace plan that Zelensky said he is still reviewing.
According to Zelensky, the plan presented by Washington—originally consisting of 28 points—was reduced to 20 after discussions between Ukrainian and U.S. representatives over the weekend. “We are going to work on those 20 points. We are not completely satisfied with the proposals from our partners,” Zelensky said during an online press conference on Monday.
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