International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Heat wave puts more than 70 million Americans under alerts as temperatures near 46°C
More than 70 million people remained under heat alerts Monday as an intense heat wave continued across the southern United States, particularly Florida and states along the Mexican border, where temperatures and heat indexes could reach as high as 46 degrees Celsius, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
Several cities recorded or tied temperature records over the weekend and into Monday, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale in Florida; Laredo, Borger and Austin’s airport in Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina; and Memphis, Tennessee.
The NWS warned that the heat wave will continue affecting the southern and southeastern United States, with maximum temperatures expected to remain near 38°C to 40°C for several days. The heat index, which combines temperature and humidity to estimate how hot conditions feel, could reach 46°C.
The extreme heat is also spreading into the Southwest, where temperatures began rising again between Monday and Tuesday. Forecast highs in the region range from about 38°C to 43°C.
Heat alerts remain in effect across Nevada, Arizona and California, including areas in southern Arizona and California near the Mexican border, as authorities warn of the risks posed by prolonged extreme temperatures.
The NWS urged residents to limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, ensure access to air conditioning or cooling centers, and check on vulnerable friends, neighbors and family members.
The United States is experiencing a summer marked by above-average temperatures and repeated heat waves. One of the most intense episodes occurred during the July 4 weekend, when extreme heat was blamed for roughly 30 deaths.
July was the hottest month ever recorded in the United States since measurements began, with the average temperature across the contiguous country approaching 25°C, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The combination of extreme heat and drought conditions has also fueled wildfires. Nearly 3 million hectares have burned across the country so far in 2026, making it the largest area affected by wildfires in a decade.
International
Trump warns Iran over nuclear ambitions as U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline passes
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated Monday that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, as a 60-day deadline set under a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran expired without an agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East.
“The number one goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way or under any circumstances, a nuclear weapon,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
The memorandum, signed on June 17, called for an “immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts” as part of a broader negotiation process aimed at ending the conflict. However, the deadline expired Monday without a peace agreement, while both Washington and Tehran continued to maintain their respective positions.
The expiration is largely symbolic, as military clashes resumed during the 60-day period. The Strait of Hormuz also remains blocked, contributing to elevated global oil prices.
Trump escalated his rhetoric toward Tehran last Friday, saying he planned to declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory after defeating Iran.
“After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, very soon I will essentially declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory,” Trump said during a political rally in Long Island, New York. He also claimed that the United States currently controls the passage of vessels through the strategic waterway.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is preparing additional economic measures against Iran that he described as unprecedented.
“Stay tuned for new announcements next week because we are going to implement measures unlike anything ever seen in the history of the economic isolation of a country,” Bessent said.
The Treasury secretary indicated that the measures would form part of a broader “double hit” strategy that could also involve maintaining the blockade of Iranian ports.
International
Brazil’s Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro kick off election campaigns amid focus on crime
Public security took center stage Sunday as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched their election campaigns, positioning themselves as the leading rivals ahead of the October presidential vote.
Lula, who leads most opinion polls, kicked off his campaign at the Vila Euclides stadium in São Bernardo do Campo, in São Paulo state, while Bolsonaro held his event in Rio de Janeiro, a political stronghold of his family.
During his speech, Lula announced plans to create a new Ministry of Public Security aimed at strengthening coordination between the federal government and Brazil’s states in the fight against crime.
The president pledged a tougher strategy to reclaim territories controlled or influenced by criminal groups. The proposed ministry would help “share responsibilities with the states” and confront those who seek to control favelas and impoverished neighborhoods, Lula told supporters.
The initiative places public security at the heart of Lula’s campaign as he seeks another term in office amid persistent concerns over crime and organized criminal activity in Brazil.
Lula also used his first campaign speech to reinforce his position as a leading figure of Brazil’s left and to criticize his political opponents on the right.
“I will not allow the right to take power,” Lula said, accusing his opponents of having previously mocked children who died because they lacked access to medicine.
“I don’t know what future these people imagine for the Brazilian people,” he added.
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