International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Protests persist in Uruapan after mayor’s assassination as citizens demand justice
Five days after the assassination of Carlos Manzo, the mayor of Uruapan in the western state of Michoacán, and following the appointment of his widow, Grecia Quiroz, as interim mayor, hundreds of people continue protesting for the third consecutive day demanding justice.
On Wednesday, around 200 vehicles belonging to transport associations and business owners blocked roads in central Uruapan and several major avenues across the city.
Meanwhile, in Morelia, the state capital, two university marches were scheduled. Demonstrations since Monday have been marked by clashes, police response, and protesters forcing their way into the Michoacán Government Palace.
About 200 kilometers away, in the port city of Lázaro Cárdenas, another demonstration was called for 6:00 p.m. local time, in which the Association of Producers and Exporting Packers of Avocado of Mexico (APEAM) announced it would join the demand for greater security.
Total Shutdown Planned in Uruapan
Local business chambers and organizations in Uruapan have called for a “total shutdown of activities” this Friday, the 7th, at 10:00 a.m. (16:00 GMT). They are urging residents to place a black ribbon at the entrance of their homes or businesses as a sign of mourning.
The groups plan to march wearing black or white shirts under the slogan: “For those who are gone, for those who are afraid, for those who remain standing.”
International
Sexual assault attempt on Mexico’s president sparks outrage in historic center
A man harassed and groped Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum without her consent on Tuesday while she walked through Mexico City’s historic center, just meters from the National Palace, greeting members of the public.
The man, who appeared to be intoxicated, attempted to kiss the president from behind before grabbing her. Security personnel immediately intervened and detained him, with video footage showing Sheinbaum visibly tense following the incident.
Sheinbaum was on her way to the first National Meeting of Universities and Higher Education Institutions at the Education Secretariat headquarters, located just a few blocks from the palace. She chose to walk to the event due to the short distance.
During the stroll, in one of the busiest parts of the capital, the man took advantage of the crowd surrounding the president, approaching her from behind, trying to kiss her neck and placing his arms around her.
Hours later, federal authorities confirmed that the suspect — identified as Uriel Rivera Martínez — had been arrested and taken to the Mexico City Prosecutor’s Office for Sexual Crimes, according to the National Detention Registry.
Legal sources stated that Sheinbaum was the victim of a flagrant sexual abuse offense under Mexico City’s Penal Code, noting that no close assistant intervened at the very moment the assault occurred.
According to a 2024 survey by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), 15.5% of women in Mexico have experienced sexual harassment, groping, exhibitionism or attempted rape — five times the percentage of men, at 3.2%.
International
Longest government shutdown in U.S. history deepens airport and aid crisis
The U.S. government shutdown reached a historic milestone on Wednesday, becoming the longest in the nation’s history as Republicans aligned with President Donald Trump continue to clash with Democratic opposition over the federal budget.
The shutdown entered its 36th day, surpassing the previous record set in 2019 during Trump’s first term in office.
Over the past six weeks, the budget impasse has left roughly 1.4 million federal workers without pay. Employees deemed “essential,” including air traffic controllers and law enforcement officers, have been required to continue working despite not receiving their salaries.
Conditions at airports are growing increasingly strained. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that the federal government may be forced to partially shut down U.S. airspace due to staffing shortages.
“So if we go another week from now, Democrats, you will see massive chaos… you will see massive flight delays,” Duffy cautioned.
Social assistance programs have also been disrupted. On Tuesday, Trump stated that food aid relied upon by millions of Americans would not be distributed until the government reopens — contradicting earlier administration comments indicating that partial benefits could still be provided.
Protests persist in Uruapan after mayor’s assassination as citizens demand justice
Sexual assault attempt on Mexico’s president sparks outrage in historic center
Longest government shutdown in U.S. history deepens airport and aid crisis
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