International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
El Chapo’s son Joaquín Guzmán López pleads guilty to U.S. drug trafficking charges
Joaquín Guzmán López, one of the sons of notorious Mexican drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, pleaded guilty on Monday to drug trafficking charges in a U.S. court, months after his brother Ovidio reached a similar plea agreement, according to local media reports.
The defendant appeared before a federal court in Chicago early Monday afternoon and changed his previous plea in the case, the Chicago Tribune reported. U.S. authorities accuse him of forming, together with his three brothers, the cartel faction known as “Los Chapitos.”
The group is believed to have continued the operations of El Chapo, who has been serving a life sentence in the United States since 2019.
Guzmán López, 39, was arrested after landing in Texas in a small aircraft alongside cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada.
International
Venezuela authorizes return flights as U.S. continues deportations amid rising tensions
The arrival of U.S. aircraft carrying undocumented Venezuelan migrants continued regularly despite rising tensions between Washington and Caracas over President Donald Trump’s military deployment in the Caribbean.
Trump maintains that the deployment is part of an anti-narcotics operation, while Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro insists the true objective is to remove him from power and seize the nation’s oil resources.
Venezuela’s aviation authority has “received a request from the United States government to resume repatriation flights for Venezuelan migrants from that country to Venezuela,” the Ministry of Transportation said in a statement .
“Under the instructions of President Nicolás Maduro, authorization has been granted for these aircraft to enter our airspace,” it added.
Caracas will permit two Eastern Airlines flights to land on Wednesday and Friday.
Migration remains one of the Trump administration’s flagship issues. On Monday, the U.S. president held a meeting with his National Security Council to discuss the situation in Venezuela, a day after confirming he had spoken with Maduro by phone, without offering further details.
According to the Venezuelan government, roughly 75 deportation flights have been carried out this year, returning at least 13,956 Venezuelans from the United States.
International
20,000 rounds stolen from german army after driver leaves cargo unattended
The German army confirmed the theft of a shipment of ammunition that occurred a week ago while it was being transported by a civilian delivery driver, a military spokesperson told AFP, confirming earlier media reports.
According to Der Spiegel and the regional broadcaster MDR, around 20,000 rounds of ammunition were stolen from an unguarded parking lot near Magdeburg, in eastern Germany, while the driver was asleep in a nearby hotel. No information has been released regarding the identity of the suspects, and the military declined to specify the exact type or amount of ammunition taken.
Authorities have also not indicated how the perpetrators knew the cargo would be left unattended.
“The theft was discovered upon delivery at the barracks,” the German army spokesperson said.
A police spokeswoman confirmed to AFP that an investigation has been opened but refused to provide further details “for tactical reasons.”
Sources close to the German military, cited by Der Spiegel, believe it is unlikely the theft was a coincidence. They suspect the thieves waited for the driver to stop for the night before striking.
Der Spiegel also reported that the Defense Ministry normally requires two drivers for this type of transport to ensure the cargo is constantly monitored. However, in this case only one driver was assigned, meaning the civilian transport company failed to comply with the security protocols.
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