International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Bill Gates Admits “Serious Mistake” Over Epstein Ties

Bill Gates acknowledged he made a “serious mistake” by associating with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, telling employees at his philanthropic organization that he regretted the relationship and its impact on the foundation’s work. He also admitted to having had affairs with two Russian women but denied any involvement in Epstein’s criminal activities.

The Microsoft co-founder is among several high-profile figures mentioned in documents from the so-called Epstein files released by the U.S. Department of Justice. The records reference personal associations, financial dealings and private communications involving Epstein’s network.

During a staff-wide meeting at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on Tuesday, a recording of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Gates said he regretted spending time with Epstein and arranging meetings between foundation executives and the financier.

“It was a big mistake to spend time with Epstein,” Gates told employees, adding that the association had harmed the foundation’s reputation.

In a draft email released by the Justice Department, Epstein claimed that Gates had engaged in extramarital relationships. The message alleged that their interactions ranged from assisting Gates in obtaining drugs to cope with personal matters to facilitating meetings with married women.

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Gates, 70, acknowledged during the internal meeting that he had two affairs but firmly denied any connection to Epstein’s crimes.

The revelations come amid renewed scrutiny over Epstein’s network of prominent contacts following the public release of investigative files.

International

Stephen Hawking Photo Appears in Newly Released Epstein Documents

A previously unseen image of renowned theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking has surfaced among documents recently released by the U.S. Department of Justice as part of its investigation into financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The photograph shows the British scientist, who died in 2018 at age 76, smiling while seated between two women wearing swimsuits in what appears to be a beach setting. In the image, Hawking appears to be holding a drink while reclining on a sun lounger.

The exact context of the photo — including the date and location — has not been officially confirmed. However, it is known that Hawking attended a scientific conference funded by Epstein in March 2006 in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where several academics participated in events and activities organized by the financier prior to his criminal charges.

No Allegations Against Hawking

Hawking’s appearance in the files does not imply involvement in illegal or inappropriate conduct, and there are no formal charges linking him to any criminal activity in connection with the Epstein case.

The physicist is mentioned in numerous documents, primarily in relation to his participation in academic events associated with Epstein’s efforts to build connections with prominent figures in the scientific community.

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The release of the files has prompted renewed public interest in the scope of Epstein’s network, though inclusion in the documents alone does not indicate wrongdoing.

International

Larry Summers Steps Down from Harvard Role Amid Epstein Controversy

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has resigned from his academic post at Harvard University due to his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, the university said Wednesday.

Summers, who led the U.S. Treasury Department under former President Bill Clinton and later served as president of Harvard in the early 2000s, appeared in Justice Department files related to Epstein as having maintained extensive exchanges with the late financier.

According to a university statement, “Harvard Kennedy School Dean Jeremy Weinstein has accepted the resignation of Professor Lawrence H. Summers from his role as co-director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government,” noting that the decision was connected to the Epstein case.

Meanwhile, Clinton is scheduled to testify Friday before a congressional committee regarding the Epstein matter. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to appear before the panel on Thursday.

The development marks another high-profile repercussion stemming from renewed scrutiny surrounding Epstein’s network of associations.