International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Three Killed, Four Injured in Shooting Near Seattle’s Space Needle
Three people were killed and at least four others, including a young child, were injured in a shooting near Seattle’s iconic Space Needle on Sunday, authorities said.
The shooting occurred during the annual Bite of Seattle food festival, held in one of the city’s busiest tourist areas. Police have arrested one suspect and are searching for a second individual believed to be involved.
Assistant Police Chief Tyrone Davis said officers responded to reports of gunfire at about 6:00 p.m. local time (0100 GMT Monday).
“Two individuals were shooting at each other,” Davis said, adding that investigators recovered two firearms at the scene.
Authorities confirmed that three people died as a result of the shooting. The identities of the victims have not yet been released.
Washington Governor Bob Ferguson said members of the State Patrol’s SWAT team had been deployed to assist Seattle police with the investigation.
Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson described the incident as a “horrific act of violence.”
“Our focus is on those who lost their lives, those fighting to recover, and the families standing beside them,” Wilson said in a statement.
Susan Gregg, a spokesperson for Harborview Medical Center, said the hospital admitted four victims: a young child, a 23-year-old man, a 39-year-old woman and another woman whose age was not immediately known and who required emergency surgery.
According to police, the hospitalized victims are in stable condition.
Witnesses told local television station KIRO that they heard multiple gunshots before crowds fled the festival area.
“At first I thought it was fireworks, and then everyone started running,” witness Nick Bate told the station.
Another witness told AFP that panic spread immediately after the shooting.
“We just started running. I didn’t even look to see where the shooter was. I just kept hearing the gunfire,” the witness said.
International
China Accuses U.S. AI Firms of Using Chinese Models to Train Artificial Intelligence
China on Monday accused U.S. artificial intelligence companies of using Chinese AI models to train their own systems, escalating tensions in the technological rivalry between the world’s two largest economies.
In a statement, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it has evidence that “many U.S. artificial intelligence companies have distilled Chinese models during their research, development and training processes.”
Model distillation is a machine learning technique that transfers knowledge from a larger, more advanced model to a smaller and faster one, allowing it to perform efficiently while requiring fewer computing resources. The approach is widely used across the AI industry.
U.S. officials have previously argued that Chinese firms employ distillation on a large scale to unlawfully replicate proprietary American AI systems. Beijing dismissed those allegations, calling them unfounded.
According to the Chinese ministry, Washington’s accusations “lack both factual and legal basis, apply double standards in practice, and represent a typical act of AI hegemony.”
“China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” the ministry added.
The statement comes days after a senior White House official accused Chinese startup Moonshot AI of secretly copying Anthropic’s most advanced AI model to develop its Kimi K3 system.
Moonshot’s latest model drew significant attention across the U.S. technology sector following its release, reigniting debate over China’s growing competitiveness in artificial intelligence.
Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington could impose sanctions on China as the administration considers restricting or banning foreign-developed open-source AI models, many of which are built using model distillation techniques.
International
Costa Rica Seeks to Expand Extradition Law to Target Organized Crime
Costa Rican President Laura Fernández announced that her administration will submit a constitutional reform bill to Congress on August 3 aimed at expanding the legal grounds for extraditing Costa Rican nationals accused of serious crimes.
Under current legislation, Costa Rican citizens can only be extradited to face prosecution abroad for international drug trafficking and terrorism. The proposed reform would broaden that list to include a wider range of organized crime offenses.
Speaking before the Legislative Assembly while presenting a broader package of public security initiatives, Fernández said the proposal seeks to strengthen the country’s fight against transnational criminal organizations.
“We are going to expand the grounds for extradition to include serious crimes,” the president said.
The initiative would allow the extradition of Costa Rican nationals accused of financing drug trafficking or terrorism, money laundering, human trafficking, migrant smuggling, arms and organ trafficking, contract killings, organized crime-related homicides, cybercrime and cyberterrorism.
“We will not stop in our national crusade against organized crime or in our relentless war against drug trafficking,” Fernández said.
A political ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, Fernández took office in May after campaigning on a promise to adopt a tougher stance against organized crime, which she has linked to the recent rise in violence in Costa Rica, a country long regarded as one of the safest in Latin America.
Costa Rica currently permits the extradition of its own citizens only for international drug trafficking and terrorism, following a 2025 constitutional amendment promoted by former President Rodrigo Chaves, who now serves as the country’s Minister of the Presidency and Finance.
Three Killed, Four Injured in Shooting Near Seattle’s Space Needle
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