International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Colombia says it would not reject Maduro asylum request as regional tensions escalate
The Colombian government stated on Thursday that it would have no reason to reject a potential asylum request from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro should he leave office, as regional tensions persist over the deployment of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean since August.
“In the current climate of tension, negotiations are necessary, and if the United States demands a transition or political change, that is something to be assessed. If such a transition results in him (Maduro) needing to live elsewhere or seek protection, Colombia would have no reason to deny it,” said Colombian Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio in an interview with Caracol Radio.
However, Villavicencio noted that it is unlikely Maduro would choose Colombia as a refuge. “I believe he would opt for someplace more distant and calmer,” she added.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro also commented on Venezuela’s situation on Wednesday, arguing that the country needs a “democratic revolution” rather than “inefficient repression.” His remarks followed the recent detention and passport cancellation of Cardinal Baltazar Porras at the Caracas airport.
“The Maduro government must understand that responding to external aggression requires more than military preparations; it requires a democratic revolution. A country is defended with more democracy, not more inefficient repression,” Petro wrote on X (formerly Twitter), in a rare public criticism of the Venezuelan leader.
Petro also called for a general amnesty for political opponents and reiterated his call for forming a broad transitional government to address Venezuela’s prolonged crisis.
Since September, U.S. military forces have destroyed more than 20 vessels allegedly carrying drugs in Caribbean and Pacific waters near Venezuela and Colombia, resulting in over 80 deaths.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that attacks “inside Venezuela” will begin “soon,” while Maduro has urged Venezuelans to prepare for what he describes as an impending external aggression.
International
Cuba battles out-of-control dengue and chikungunya epidemic as death toll rises to 44
Cuba is facing a severe dengue and chikungunya epidemic that has already claimed at least 44 lives, including 29 minors, according to the Ministry of Public Health (Minsap). The outbreak—now considered out of control—has expanded across the entire country amid a critical shortage of resources to confront the emergency.
Authorities report more than 42,000 chikungunya infections and at least 26,000 dengue cases, though they acknowledge significant underreporting as many patients avoid seeking care in health centers where medicines, supplies, and medical personnel are scarce. The first cluster was detected in July in the city of Matanzas, but the government did not officially use the term “epidemic” until November 12.
Chikungunya—virtually unknown on the island until this year—causes high fever, rashes, fatigue, and severe joint pain that can last for months, leaving thousands temporarily incapacitated. Dengue, endemic to the region, triggers fever, muscle pain, vomiting, and, in severe cases, internal bleeding. Cuba currently has no vaccines available for either virus.
Minsap reports that of the 44 deaths recorded so far, 28 were caused by chikungunya and 16 by dengue.
The health crisis unfolds amid deep economic deterioration, marked by the absence of fumigation campaigns, uncollected garbage, and shortages of medical supplies—conditions that have fueled the spread of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the primary vector for both diseases. “The healthcare system is overwhelmed,” non-official medical sources acknowledge.
Beyond the health impact, the epidemic is heavily disrupting economic and family life. The intense joint pain caused by chikungunya has led to widespread work absences, while hospital overcrowding has forced relatives to leave their jobs to care for the sick. In November, authorities launched a clinical trial using the Cuban drug Jusvinza to reduce joint pain, though results have not yet been released.
International
Ecuador on track for record violence as homicides hit highest level in Latin America again
Violence in Ecuador is expected to reach historic levels by the end of 2025, with the country set to record the highest homicide rate in Latin America for the third consecutive year, according to a report released Thursday by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). The organization warns that criminal activity is not only persisting but could worsen in 2026.
Official figures show 7,553 homicides recorded through October, surpassing the 7,063 registered throughout all of 2024. ACLED estimates that 71% of the population was exposed to violent incidents this year, despite President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of an “internal armed conflict” in an attempt to confront powerful criminal groups.
According to the report, several factors are driving the deterioration of security: a territorial war between Los Chonerosand Los Lobos, the two most influential criminal organizations in the country; the fragmentation of other groups after the fall of their leaders; and Ecuador’s expanding role as a strategic hub for regional drug trafficking.
Since 2021, violence has forced the internal displacement of around 132,000 people, while more than 400,000 Ecuadorians — equivalent to 2% of the population — have left the country. Between January and November alone, violent deaths rose 42%, fueled by prison massacres and clashes between rival gangs.
The report warns that conditions may deteriorate further. Ecuador has been added to ACLED’s 2026 Conflict Watchlist, which highlights regions at risk of escalating violence. The expansion of Colombian armed groups such as FARC dissidents and the ELN, state weakness, and a potential rerouting of drug trafficking corridors from the Caribbean to the Pacific intensify the threat.
“The president is facing a wave of violence that shows no signs of easing,” the report concludes.
Colombia says it would not reject Maduro asylum request as regional tensions escalate
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Ecuador on track for record violence as homicides hit highest level in Latin America again
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