International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Trump relaunches diplomatic push to finalize U.S.-Backed peace plan for Ukraine War
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that his diplomatic team will resume meetings with delegations from Russia and Ukraine in an effort to pressure both sides to accept the peace plan proposed by Washington to end the war in Ukraine.
As part of this new round of talks, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will hold discussions with Ukrainian representatives to narrow differences on the remaining points of the agreement.
Trump also confirmed his intention to meet personally with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and with Putin, though he emphasized that such meetings will only take place “when the agreement is fully finalized or in its final stage.”
The president claimed that his administration has made “tremendous progress” toward resolving the conflict and reiterated that the war “never would have started” if he had been in the White House at the onset of the crisis.
The U.S.-backed peace plan consists of 28 points and has been revised following feedback from both sides. According to Trump, only “a few points of disagreement” remain under active discussion.
One of the most controversial aspects of the proposal is the suggestion that Ukraine cede parts of the Donbas region to Russia and limit the size of its armed forces. Kyiv is working closely with Washington to soften these clauses in search of an arrangement that does not compromise its sovereignty or security.
With this diplomatic push, Trump aims to solidify his role as the main mediator in the conflict and steer the war toward a political resolution after years of devastation, humanitarian crisis, and rising global geopolitical tensions.
International
Man pleads not guilty in Liverpool parade incident that injured more than 130
Paul Doyle, who has been held in provisional detention since the incident, is accused of intentionally injuring 12 people, attempting to injure another 17, and committing acts of violence and dangerous driving.
According to prosecutors, eight of the victims were minors at the time, including a six-month-old baby.
Wearing a black suit, the 54-year-old defendant broke into tears as the jury entered Liverpool Crown Court, in northwest England. Doyle, a father of three and former member of the Royal Navy, had pleaded not guilty in September to the 31 charges against him.
On Tuesday, he reaffirmed his not-guilty plea when asked to respond again to four of the charges, which had been slightly amended. The jury was sworn in the same day, and the trial—expected to last three to four weeks—will begin on Wednesday.
The incident occurred on May 26, when thousands of Liverpool FC supporters were gathered for a parade celebrating the club’s Premier League victory. According to the investigation, Doyle’s car entered a street that had just been reopened to allow an ambulance through.
His vehicle was then surrounded by a crowd of Liverpool supporters, some of whom acted aggressively. Doyle first reversed, then accelerated forward, swerving and striking people on both sides of the street. According to an initial report from Merseyside Police, 134 people were injured.
Firefighters reported that one man was thrown onto the hood of the vehicle and four people, including a child, were trapped underneath the car.
Doyle was arrested at the scene. Police quickly ruled out any terrorist motive, stating instead that it was an isolated incident.
International
Macron to announce new voluntary military service amid rising security concerns in Europe
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce on Thursday the creation of a voluntary military service program, following similar moves by other European countries amid growing concerns over Russia and uncertainty surrounding the United States as an ally.
The announcement comes after controversy sparked by the Chief of the Defense Staff, General Fabien Mandon, who last week urged the French population to “accept losing their children” in the event of a conflict in Europe. Macron insisted the comments were taken out of context.
“It is absolutely necessary to dispel any confusion suggesting that we are going to send our young people to Ukraine,” the president said in an interview with RTL radio on Tuesday.
France ended mandatory military service in 1997 under conservative president Jacques Chirac, but Macron has been advocating for “a new framework for service” within the Armed Forces to strengthen what he describes as the “army–nation bond.”
According to several sources, the centrist president is expected to unveil a voluntary military service initiative starting with around 2,000 participants, with a long-term goal of reaching 50,000 volunteers per year.
While the government has not yet detailed how the program will work, French media report that the service would last about 10 months and include compensation of several hundred euros.
The French Armed Forces currently comprise roughly 200,000 active-duty personnel and 47,000 reservists. By 2030, the goal is to increase those figures to 210,000 and 80,000, respectively.
Trump relaunches diplomatic push to finalize U.S.-Backed peace plan for Ukraine War
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