International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Federal immigration agents kill man in Minneapolis, sparking protests and outrage

Federal immigration agents shot and killed a 37-year-old Minneapolis man during an operation on Saturday, authorities confirmed, sparking new protests and deepening outrage over federal immigration enforcement in the city.

The victim, identified as Alex Jeffrey Pretti, was a U.S. citizen and intensive care nurse who worked at a Veterans Affairs hospital and was widely respected in his community, according to colleagues and news reports.

Officials said the shooting occurred during a targeted immigration raid in south Minneapolis. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) described the incident as an act of self-defense by agents who believed the man posed a threat.

However, videos reviewed by multiple outlets and eyewitnesses show Pretti holding a phone and not displaying a weapon before being pepper-sprayed, tackled by agents and then shot multiple times, raising serious questions about the official account.

The killing comes amid a broader federal immigration enforcement operation in the city and follows another controversial shooting in early January in which Renée Good, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen, was fatally shot by an ICE agent, leading to widespread protests and criticism of federal tactics.

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International

Delcy Rodríguez seeks political agreements after Maduro’s ouster

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, on Saturday called for “reaching agreements” with the opposition to achieve “peace” in the country, which the United States says it now controls following the military operation that removed President Nicolás Maduro from power.

Rodríguez, who previously served as Maduro’s vice president, assumed interim leadership after the leftist leader was captured on January 3 during a military incursion that left nearly 100 people dead.

In her first public statements since taking office, Rodríguez signaled a shift in the strained relationship between Caracas and Washington, while also committing to the release of a “significant number” of political prisoners.

“There can be no political or partisan differences when it comes to the peace of Venezuela,” Rodríguez said during an address in the coastal state of La Guaira, broadcast on state television VTV.

“From our differences, we must speak to one another with respect. From our differences, we must meet and reach agreements,” she added.

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The day before, Rodríguez instructed the head of Parliament — her brother Jorge Rodríguez — to convene talks with various political sectors in the country aimed at achieving “concrete and immediate results.”

International

Bogotá and Quito Seek Dialogue After Tariffs and Power Cut Escalate Tensions

Bogotá and Quito will hold an emergency bilateral summit next week amid recent developments that have strained relations between the two countries.

Tensions escalated this week after Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa unexpectedly announced a 30% tariff on Colombian imports. Colombia responded with a reciprocal measure, imposing the same tariff on around 20 Ecuadorian products and suspending electricity exports to Ecuador.

Aware that electricity imports are critical to easing Ecuador’s recent energy crises, Quito further imposed a 30% tariff on the transportation of Colombian oil through its territory.

However, recent statements from the Ecuadorian government suggest that dialogue between the two sides has intensified in recent hours. Ecuador’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabriela Sommerfeld, confirmed that active conversations are under way.

In Colombia, segments of the business sector have welcomed the prospect of negotiations. The National Business Council (Consejo Gremial Nacional, CGN), for instance, urged both governments to restore commercial relations, warning that the dispute “puts jobs and regional economic stability at risk.”