Connect with us

International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

Advertisement
20260224_estafa_mh_728x90
previous arrow
next arrow

The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

Advertisement
20260224_estafa_mh_728x90
previous arrow
next arrow

‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

Advertisement
20260224_estafa_mh_728x90
previous arrow
next arrow

Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

Advertisement
20260224_estafa_mh_728x90
previous arrow
next arrow

Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

Advertisement
20260224_estafa_mh_728x90
previous arrow
next arrow

Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

  • A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

Continue Reading
Advertisement
20260224_estafa_mh_300x250

International

Venezuela Earthquakes Spark Diplomatic Thaw With Former Critics

The devastating earthquakes that struck Venezuela have triggered an unprecedented diplomatic thaw between Caracas and several governments that had maintained strained relations with the country, raising hopes that the humanitarian response could pave the way for broader international engagement under the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The United States, Chile, Argentina, El Salvador and Israel were among the first countries to announce humanitarian assistance, deploy search-and-rescue teams or establish direct contact with acting President Delcy Rodríguez to coordinate relief efforts in the hardest-hit areas.

Canada also joined the international response by announcing humanitarian aid while opening a domestic debate over the importance of maintaining diplomatic representation in countries such as Venezuela to better respond to emergencies and assist its citizens abroad.

The wave of international cooperation marks a sharp contrast to the diplomatic tensions that followed Venezuela’s disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, in which Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner.

In the aftermath of that vote, the governments of Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay publicly questioned the official election results, triggering one of the region’s most significant diplomatic crises in recent years.

The Venezuelan government responded by withdrawing its diplomatic personnel from several of those countries and demanding the departure of their representatives, further deepening the country’s international isolation.

The humanitarian emergency created by the twin earthquakes has now prompted renewed communication between Caracas and governments that had previously suspended or significantly reduced diplomatic engagement, underscoring how major natural disasters can temporarily reshape international relations despite longstanding political disagreements.

Continue Reading

International

Venezuela Earthquake Death Toll Surpasses 1,700 as Search for Survivors Continues

Venezuelan authorities have raised the death toll from last week’s twin earthquakes to more than 1,700, as rescue teams continue searching for survivors in the country’s hardest-hit coastal region.

According to the latest official report released on Sunday, the powerful earthquakes, measuring magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5, have claimed at least 1,719 lives. National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez also reported that 5,034 people were injured, while 15,866 have been displaced and another 22,619 are receiving medical care.

The United Nations has expressed growing concern over the scale of the disaster, estimating that as many as 68,000 people could still be missing.

La Guaira bears the brunt of the disaster

The coastal state of La Guaira has suffered the greatest loss of life and the most extensive damage. The Venezuelan government has declared the area a disaster zone and placed it under military control as emergency operations continue.

Five days after the earthquakes struck, search-and-rescue teams remain on the ground, supported by additional heavy equipment and international rescue crews. However, hopes of finding more survivors beneath the rubble continue to diminish with each passing day.

One of the most dramatic rescue operations unfolded Monday in Catia La Mar, where emergency teams from El Salvador, Mexico, and Venezuela worked together to reach a 21-year-old man who has remained trapped inside a collapsed building since the earthquakes struck.

The twin earthquakes hit Venezuela on June 24, with the epicenter located between San Felipe and Yumare in the country’s northern region. The first quake, measuring magnitude 7.2, struck at 6:04 p.m. local time. Just 39 seconds later, a second and stronger magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred farther to the southeast. Combined, the seismic activity lasted nearly three minutes, causing widespread devastation across several regions of the country.

Continue Reading

International

Looting Spreads in Venezuela’s Hardest-Hit Areas After Deadly Earthquakes

Not even the wires were left behind at a small grocery store. Before the ground had even stopped shaking, looting and theft began in the areas hardest hit by the double earthquake that struck Venezuela.

Reports of robberies have multiplied in the coastal state of La Guaira, located near Caracas and now transformed into a landscape of collapsed buildings and debris.

Videos circulating on social media show groups of people removing boxes of household appliances from a damaged store. Other images show similar boxes being carried on top of vehicles and motorcycles.

Social media platforms have also been filled with accusations against police officers and military personnel who allegedly stole from homes and even from victims who died during the disaster.

A branch of a major pharmacy chain was looted, along with supermarkets and other businesses. Some residents have described the situation as “disaster tourism,” while others say the looting reflects hunger and desperation among people who lost everything in a country already facing a prolonged economic crisis.

“Is it fair that our own people turn against our own people?” said María Esther Bernal, 71, who rented commercial spaces to Chinese merchants, all of which were looted. “They left nothing behind, not even the wallpaper. They even took the cables,” she said.

“Next door, a man died. He was Chinese. People walked over his body while they looted the place. It was a supermarket,” she added.

An AFP journalist witnessed looting in La Guaira since Thursday, following the earthquakes.

Jenifer Mayora, 34, defended some of the actions, saying that “the things people took were because the owners of the stores allowed us to take them.”

However, she criticized the limited response from authorities. “I have been waiting for a mattress so my children can sleep,” she said.

Residents have expressed anger over what they describe as a slow and insufficient response from authorities after the double earthquake, which has left around 1,450 people dead and tens of thousands missing.

Communities are demanding not only faster rescue operations in La Guaira, but also stronger security measures and urgent assistance with food, water, and medicine.

Continue Reading

Trending

Central News