International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Oil prices surge again as Middle East tensions persist

Oil prices climbed again on Friday for a second consecutive session, as markets remained concerned about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East with no tangible diplomatic progress.

North Sea Brent crude for May delivery rose 4.22% to close at $112.57 per barrel.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) approached the $100 mark, settling at $99.64, up 5.46%.

The decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to delay by ten days his ultimatum for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz failed to reassure market participants.

“It means there will be ten additional days of disruptions in the Middle East for crude and refined product flows,” said Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates.

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“For prices to come down, a resolution to the conflict is necessary,” Lipow added. “And even in the event of a ceasefire, it is not certain that Iran would allow oil shipments to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”

International

Young Spanish Woman Receives Euthanasia After Legal Battle, Sparking Debate

A 25-year-old Spanish woman, Noelia Castillo, received euthanasia on Thursday following a prolonged legal dispute with her father.

She passed away at a care center in Sant Pere de Ribes, about 40 kilometers from Barcelona, where she had been living for some time, according to Spanish media reports.

In an interview broadcast a day earlier on Antena 3, Castillo expressed her exhaustion after enduring prolonged suffering. She indicated that her decision was influenced by a combination of personal circumstances and health-related challenges, including family conflicts and a condition of paraplegia following a previous incident that left her with lasting physical consequences.

Spain legalized euthanasia in 2021, becoming one of the few countries that allow patients under strict conditions to seek medical assistance to end their lives in order to avoid what the law defines as unbearable suffering.

The case has reignited debate in Spain over the ethical, legal, and family dimensions surrounding euthanasia, as well as the broader issue of support for individuals in vulnerable situations.

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International

Over 300 U.S. Troops Wounded Since Start of Iran Conflict, CENTCOM Says

More than 300 U.S. service members have been injured since the start of the conflict with Iran on February 28, the United States Central Command confirmed on Friday.

“Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, approximately 303 U.S. service members have been wounded. The vast majority of these injuries are minor, and 273 troops have already returned to duty,” said U.S. Navy Captain Tim Hawkins.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to AFP, indicated that 10 American troops remain seriously injured.

According to the latest figures, an additional 13 U.S. service members have been killed since the conflict began, including seven in the Gulf region and six in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Iran’s armed forces warned on Friday that hotels hosting U.S. troops in the region could be considered legitimate military targets.

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“When U.S. forces enter a hotel, from our perspective that hotel becomes American,” said armed forces spokesperson Abolfazl Shekarchi in remarks broadcast on state television.