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Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

  • A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

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International

MS-13 Member Sentenced to 35 Years for Fatal Subway Killing in New York

A federal court in New York has sentenced Salvadoran national Víctor López, known by the alias “Curioso” and identified as a member of the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) gang, to 35 years in prison for his role in the 2019 killing of Abel Mosso at a subway station in Queens.

The sentence was handed down by U.S. District Judge LaShann DeArcy Hall after López pleaded guilty in February 2025 to racketeering-related charges and causing the victim’s death through the use of a firearm. U.S. authorities also stated that López agreed to be deported to El Salvador upon completion of his prison sentence.

According to court records, the attack took place on February 3, 2019, when López and four other MS-13 members traveled to a New York City subway station with the intention of locating and killing Mosso, whom they believed to be affiliated with the rival Barrio 18 gang.

Investigators determined that López, along with Ramiro Gutiérrez and Tito Martínez-Alvarenga, followed the victim onto a Line 7 subway train. The group allegedly assaulted Mosso before forcibly dragging him onto the platform at the station located near 90th Street and Roosevelt Avenue in Jackson Heights, Queens.

During the confrontation, López reportedly drew a firearm. Prosecutors said Mosso briefly managed to wrestle the weapon away from him. As bystanders attempted to intervene, one of the gang members warned them not to interfere.

“Don’t get involved, we are MS-13, we’re going to kill him,” one of the attackers allegedly shouted in both Spanish and English, according to court documents.

The investigation found that Ramiro Gutiérrez later regained possession of the firearm and shot Mosso multiple times in the head, killing him at the scene.

Authorities also stated that after the attack, López burned the clothing he had worn during the assault in an effort to destroy evidence and avoid identification by law enforcement.

U.S. Attorney Joseph Nocella Jr. for the Eastern District of New York said the sentence reflects the severity of a brutal gang-related murder carried out in broad daylight at a crowded public transportation hub.

Federal prosecutors described the case as part of ongoing efforts to dismantle violent gang networks operating in New York and to hold those responsible for acts of organized criminal violence accountable.

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International

U.S. Launches Military Strikes on Iran Following Apache Helicopter Incident

The United States launched military strikes against Iran on Tuesday in what officials described as an act of “self-defense” following the alleged downing of a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

The operation was confirmed by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which stated that the attacks began at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time under direct orders from President Donald Trump.

“U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces began conducting self-defense strikes against Iran today at 5:00 p.m., following the Commander-in-Chief’s instructions, in response to yesterday’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter,” the military command said in a statement.

According to U.S. authorities, the helicopter was involved in operations near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime routes for global oil shipments, when the incident occurred. Officials reported that the two service members on board were rescued alive approximately two hours later.

President Trump had earlier signaled that a military response was being considered, arguing that the incident amounted to a direct attack by Iranian forces amid rising tensions between Washington and Tehran.

CENTCOM described the military action as a proportional response to what it characterized as an unjustified act of aggression by Iran.

The escalation comes at a time of heightened instability across the Middle East, fueled by recent confrontations between Iran and Israel and the continued presence of U.S. military forces in the Persian Gulf to safeguard commercial shipping lanes and strategic operations.

Hours after the U.S. announcement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi responded through social media, issuing a warning directed at foreign military forces operating near Iranian territory.

The latest developments have intensified concerns about the possibility of a broader regional conflict, as diplomatic and military tensions continue to rise across the Middle East.

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Central America

Bukele Tops Latin America’s Presidential Approval Ranking in June, Survey Finds

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, and President Laura Fernández of Costa Rica are the three highest-rated leaders in Latin America, according to the latest June 2026 presidential approval survey conducted by CB Global Data. The study places Peru’s interim president, José María Balcázar, at the bottom of the regional ranking.

Bukele leads the list with a 69.1% approval rating and a 27.6% disapproval rate, improving on the 67.5% positive image recorded in May. The Salvadoran president has maintained a state of emergency since March 2022 as the cornerstone of his anti-gang security strategy, a policy that continues to shape public perceptions of his administration.

Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president, ranks second with a 65.5% approval rating and 31% disapproval. Although she remains among the region’s most popular leaders, her support declined from the 67.8% approval registered in May.

Completing the top three is Costa Rican President Laura Fernández, who recently assumed office and now records a 56.1% favorable rating against 37.1% negative opinion. Her approval has risen significantly from the 52.7% reported a month earlier.

At the opposite end of the ranking is Peru’s interim president, José María Balcázar, who received only 18.2% positive approval while 71.7% of respondents expressed a negative view of his administration. Despite remaining last in the survey, he showed a slight improvement compared to previous measurements.

Second from the bottom is Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, with a 29.5% approval rating and 64.8% disapproval. Nevertheless, she registered the largest increase in positive perception among all leaders surveyed, gaining more than five percentage points compared with the previous month.

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo rounds out the group of lowest-rated leaders, posting a 33.1% approval rating against 63% disapproval. His support level declined from 36.9% in May.

Just outside the top three is President Luis Abinader of the Dominican Republic, who achieved a 54.8% approval rating and 42.2% disapproval, despite a decline from the 60.2% support recorded a month earlier.

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña follows with a 48.3% favorable rating and 48.2% disapproval, improving slightly compared with May. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ranks sixth with a 47.6% approval rating and 48.1% disapproval, down from 49.5% the previous month. Lula is expected to seek another term in Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 2026.

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz fell to seventh place after experiencing the largest decline in the survey. His approval rating dropped to 46.4%, while disapproval climbed to 52.3%, representing a loss of more than nine percentage points compared with May.

The CB Global Data survey, conducted across 18 Latin American countries, reflects shifting public sentiment toward regional leaders and highlights the growing influence of Central American presidents among the continent’s most highly rated governments.

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