International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Trump orders U.S. control of Strait of Hormuz after failed Iran talks

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the United States will take control of the Strait of Hormuz“effective immediately,” following the collapse of negotiations with Iran held in Islamabad.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had ordered the U.S. Navy to block vessels attempting to enter or exit the strategic waterway, a key route for global energy trade.

“The meeting went well, agreement was reached on most points, but the only really important one — nuclear weapons — was not approved,” Trump said, referring to the talks with Iranian representatives.

The president also stated that he had instructed authorities to intercept ships in international waters that had paid tolls to Iran to transit the strait, calling such payments “illegal.” He further accused Tehran of hindering an agreement by deploying mines in the area, describing the move as “international extortion.”

Trump added that the United States will undertake efforts to clear mines from the strait and expressed confidence that a future agreement ensuring free navigation could eventually be reached.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

The announcement came after Vice President JD Vance and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner briefed the president on the outcome of the negotiations, considered the highest-level contacts between the two countries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

While Trump acknowledged that enough progress had been made to maintain a temporary truce, he criticized Iran for remaining unwilling to abandon its nuclear ambitions, calling its position “very inflexible” on the central issue.

International

Child Found Malnourished in Van in France; Father Admits Confinement

French gendarmes discovered a child in a van in Hagenbach, in northeastern France, after a neighbor reported hearing what she described as “childlike noises” coming from the parked vehicle.

After unlocking the van, officers found the boy lying in a fetal position, unclothed and covered with a blanket, surrounded by garbage and near human waste, according to a statement from the Mulhouse prosecutor, Nicolas Heitz.

Authorities said the child appeared pale and severely malnourished. Due to prolonged confinement in a seated position, he was no longer able to walk. He was immediately taken to a hospital in Mulhouse for medical care.

The boy’s father, who lived with his partner and two daughters aged 10 and 12, admitted to keeping the child confined and depriving him of proper care.

According to the prosecutor, the man said he placed the child in the van in November 2024, claiming he wanted to “protect him” because his partner intended to have the boy admitted to a psychiatric facility.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

The suspect also stated that he allowed the child out of the vehicle in May 2025 and permitted him to enter the family apartment around mid-year, when the rest of the family was on vacation.

The man’s partner—who is not the child’s mother—also faces charges, including failure to report abuse. However, she has denied all accusations.

International

Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Risk Amid Hormuz Disruption

The Airports Council International Europe has warned of a potential “systemic shortage” of jet fuel if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored within the next three weeks, according to a letter reviewed by AFP on Friday.

In the document, addressed to the European Commission and first reported by the Financial Times, the European airport lobby stated that a “systemic jet fuel shortage will become a reality” in the European Union unless stable and significant transit through the strait resumes soon.

The association, which represents around 600 airports across 50 countries, called on Brussels to implement “urgent monitoring of fuel availability and supply” over the next six months.

Jet fuel prices have surged amid the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transport.

The conflict escalated on February 28 following joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran.

20260330_renta_mh_728x90

In response, Tehran imposed several countermeasures, including blocking maritime traffic through the strait, a route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil, jet fuel, and gas supply passes.