International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
International
OAS Election Mission to Monitor Claims of Political Interference by Colombia’s President
The Electoral Observation Mission of the Organization of American States (OAS) has pledged to follow up on allegations regarding the alleged involvement of Colombian President Gustavo Petro in political campaigning ahead of Sunday’s presidential election.
The announcement was made by presidential candidate Claudia López after a meeting with the head of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission, former Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández.
According to a statement released by López’s campaign, the OAS mission listened to the concerns raised by the candidate and committed to monitoring the complaints she has submitted to both national and international organizations.
The mission also reiterated its commitment to overseeing the electoral process to help ensure that the will of Colombian voters is respected throughout the election.
“We have turned to international forums and technical observation missions to warn that Colombian democracy cannot be left at the mercy of fear or undue pressure,” López, the former mayor of Bogotá, said following the meeting.
López has repeatedly expressed concerns about what she describes as political interference in the electoral process and has called on national and international institutions to closely monitor the conduct of the campaign.
The OAS observation mission is one of several international bodies deployed to Colombia to monitor the presidential election, which is taking place amid heightened political tensions and intense competition among candidates from across the ideological spectrum.
The election is expected to be closely watched both domestically and internationally as Colombians choose whether to continue with the country’s first left-wing administration or shift toward a new political direction.
International
Colombia Votes in Pivotal Election as Left Seeks to Retain Power
Colombians headed to the polls on Sunday in a crucial presidential election that will determine whether the country continues under its first left-wing government in modern history or shifts back toward the political right.
The election campaign has been marked by deep political divisions, with armed violence and economic concerns emerging as the dominant issues for voters.
A total of 11 candidates remain in the race following the withdrawal of three presidential tickets. The central question is which candidate will advance to a likely runoff election alongside ruling-party senator Iván Cepeda, who has led opinion polls for months with his platform of “democratic revolution” but is not expected to secure enough votes to win outright in the first round.
On the right, Senator Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Center party, the political movement founded by former President Álvaro Uribe, has lost momentum as support has grown for far-right attorney Abelardo de la Espriella. Known as “The Tiger,” De la Espriella has campaigned on a tough-on-crime agenda targeting criminal organizations and guerrilla groups, drawing comparisons to the security policies of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
Political analyst Sandra Borda, a professor at the University of the Andes, argues that Colombia is experiencing not simply greater polarization but a broader political landscape.
“The 2016 peace agreement with the FARC opened significant space for the left. Inevitably, it also created opportunities for the right,” Borda told CNN. The political scientist, who ran for the Senate in 2022 with the New Liberalism movement, believes the current election presents a more challenging environment for the left than four years ago.
According to Borda, left-wing candidates can no longer campaign solely as agents of change who have never had the opportunity to govern or who remained untouched by traditional politics.
“They can no longer make that argument. They have already governed and are no longer immune from criticism associated with political power,” she said.
The election is being closely watched across Latin America as voters weigh the record of the outgoing administration against promises of change from candidates across the political spectrum.
International
ICE agent arrested in Texas over shooting of Venezuelan migrant in Minnesota
U.S. authorities arrested an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent on Friday in Texas after he was accused of shooting a Venezuelan migrant in Minnesota earlier this year and later providing false information about the incident.
The suspect, identified as Christian Castro, faces four counts of second-degree assault, along with an additional charge related to filing a false official report. He was taken into custody after investigators from the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension located him, according to a statement from the Hennepin County Attorney’s Office.
The case stems from a January operation carried out by ICE during which Castro shot Julio César Sosa, a Venezuelan migrant, in the leg. Prosecutors allege that the agent later submitted a misleading account of the incident, claiming that Sosa and another migrant had attacked officers with a shovel and a broomstick.
However, investigators say that video evidence and further findings contradicted that version of events, leading to the dismissal of charges initially brought against the migrants by federal prosecutors.
ICE’s acting director, Todd Lyons, acknowledged in February that agents involved in the incident had given “false sworn testimony” about what occurred.
Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty described Friday’s arrest as a “critical step forward” in the judicial process and reaffirmed that the investigation remains ongoing.
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