International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Trump Orders Construction of New ‘Golden Fleet’ to Revitalize U.S. Naval Superiority
President Donald Trump issued an executive order this Monday for the immediate construction of two new warships that will bear his name. These vessels will be the pioneers of what he described as the “Golden Fleet,” a future generation of “Trump-class” battleships that he claimed would be “100 times more powerful” than those currently in service.
The announcement took place at his private residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. The President indicated that following the initial two ships, the administration aims to commission up to 25 additional vessels. He is scheduled to meet with Florida-based contractors next week to expedite production, criticizing existing defense firms for failing to deliver results efficiently.
This naval expansion is a cornerstone of Trump’s goal to revitalized the American shipbuilding industry and address the strategic gap between the U.S. and competitors like China.
The move comes amid heightened geopolitical tension. Just last week, Trump ordered the seizure of all sanctioned tankers involved with Venezuela’s “ghost fleet” to cripple the country’s crude oil industry. Since December 10, the U.S. military—deployed in the Caribbean under the guise of counter-narcotics operations—has already detained two tankers linked to Venezuelan oil transport.
International
U.S. Judge Blocks ICE from Re-detaining Salvadoran Erroneously Deported Under Trump Administration
A U.S. federal judge ruled this Monday, December 22, that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is prohibited from re-detaining Salvadoran national Kilmar Ábrego García, who was erroneously deported to El Salvador earlier this year during the administration of President Donald Trump.
During a hearing in Maryland, U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis ruled that Ábrego García must remain free on bail through the Christmas holidays, concluding that his initial detention lacked a legal basis. The ruling follows a request from his legal team for a temporary restraining order to prevent ICE from carrying out a new arrest.
Earlier this month, on December 11, Judge Xinis ordered his release from a Pennsylvania migrant detention center after determining that the government had detained him without a formal deportation order. In 2019, an immigration judge had already ruled that Ábrego could not be returned to El Salvador because his life was in danger.
Despite that protection, Ábrego García was deported in March 2025 following a raid by the Trump administration. Officials argued at the time that he was a gang member, and he was sent directly to the Center for the Confinement of Terrorism (CECOT) in El Salvador. In June, he was returned to the United States to face a new trial for alleged human smuggling—a charge he denies.
On Monday, Judge Xinis also temporarily invalidated a new deportation order issued by an immigration judge following Ábrego’s recent release, granting him legal protection through the coming weeks. His trial is scheduled to begin in Tennessee in January 2026.
International
Fire at substation triggers major blackout in San Francisco
The U.S. city of San Francisco was plunged into darkness Saturday night after a power outage left about 130,000 customers without electricity, although the utility company said service was restored to most users within hours.
Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) said in a statement posted on X that nearly 90,000 homes had their power restored by 9:00 p.m. local time (05:00 GMT on Sunday), while the remaining 40,000 customers were expected to have service restored overnight.
Large areas of the city, a major technology hub with a population of around 800,000, were affected by the blackout, which disrupted public transportation and left traffic lights out of service during the busy weekend before Christmas, a crucial period for retail businesses.
“I know it’s been a difficult day,” San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said in a video posted on social media from the city’s emergency operations center. “There has been progress, but for those still without power, we want to make sure they are safe and checking in on their neighbors,” he added.
Lurie said police officers and firefighters advised residents to stay home as much as possible. He also noted that officers and traffic inspectors were deployed to manage intersections where traffic lights were not functioning.
The mayor confirmed that the outage was caused by a fire at an electrical substation. Parts of the city were also covered in fog, further complicating conditions during the incident.
As a result of the blackout, many businesses were forced to close despite it being the weekend before Christmas. The sudden drop in shopper traffic ahead of the holiday is “devastating” for retailers, the manager of home goods store Black & Gold told the San Francisco Chronicle.
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