International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Virginia Police Arrest Salvadoran Man in Great Falls Woman’s Killing

Alexis Antonio Cedillos-Campos, 19, identified by federal officials as an undocumented immigrant from El Salvador, was arrested in connection with the death of Carmen Lizet Puch, 42, who was found dead Monday, the Fairfax County Police Department said.

Authorities said Cedillos-Campos and Puch were coworkers and were also involved in an “intimate relationship.”

“Our victim suffered numerous stab wounds in a truly brutal and indescribable manner,” Police Chief Kevin Davis said during a news conference Wednesday.

Investigators said surveillance video showed Cedillos-Campos at the restaurant where he and Puch worked, allegedly taking a fixed-blade knife, a pair of black latex gloves and a bottle of water before leaving.

“He left with the intent to harm and kill the victim,” Davis said.

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Cedillos-Campos was arrested Wednesday morning in Maryland and confessed to the killing, according to Davis. He is awaiting extradition to Virginia. Authorities have not said whether he has an attorney representing him.

The Department of Homeland Security said Cedillos-Campos had previously been arrested by U.S. Customs and Border Protection in 2024 after allegedly crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally near El Paso, Texas.

International

Mexico and Guatemala Agree on Five-Point Binational Plan for 2027

Mexico and Guatemala agreed Tuesday on a 2027 Binational Plan built around five areas of cooperation, along with a schedule of meetings and initiatives aimed at making progress by the end of 2026 on security, border infrastructure, human mobility, development and technical and social cooperation.

The agreement was announced by the foreign ministers of both countries following a meeting in Mexico City.

Mexican Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco said the plan will establish the “direction and priorities” of bilateral relations for next year. His Guatemalan counterpart, Carlos Ramiro Martínez, said the meeting allowed both governments to make decisions, schedule activities and revitalize bilateral cooperation mechanisms.

Security and border infrastructure

In the area of security, the two governments have nearly completed negotiations on a new memorandum of understanding for the Mexico-Guatemala High-Level Security Group (Ganseg), which was reactivated in 2025.

The countries expect to sign the agreement in the coming months to strengthen coordination and their ability to respond to shared security threats.

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Regarding their nearly 1,000-kilometer shared border, Mexico and Guatemala agreed to advance infrastructure improvements at border crossings and continue work on a joint cargo clearance program between Ciudad Hidalgo and Tecún Umán, two border areas separated by the Suchiate River.

The measures are intended to facilitate bilateral trade while making cross-border exchanges safer and more efficient.

The two governments will also continue defining a route toward a railway connection between their countries through Line K of Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), with the aim of strengthening economic and community ties.

Migration and development

On human mobility, Mexico and Guatemala will maintain coordination to ensure safe, orderly and dignified returns, while strengthening protection for people in transit.

The bilateral agenda also includes a second phase of the Sembrando Vida program in Guatemala, which is expected to benefit 10,000 people across 15 departments.

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Both countries will also advance initiatives under Juntos para el Bienestar, as well as six technical, scientific and energy cooperation projects approved by the Joint Commission.

The agreements seek to strengthen bilateral ties and establish concrete priorities for cooperation between Mexico and Guatemala during 2027.

International

France to Expel Two Iranian Diplomats Over Alleged Attack on French Officials

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced Tuesday, August 18, 2026, that France will expel two Iranian diplomats in response to what Paris described as an attack on two French representatives in Iran last month.

“Two French diplomats were scandalously and deliberately assaulted on July 19. I had announced that this intolerable act would have consequences. It has now happened. Two Iranian diplomats in France will be expelled in the coming days,” Barrot said in a message posted on X.

The two Iranian diplomats have been declared persona non grata and will be required to leave France within the coming days, according to the French foreign minister.

About a month ago, Barrot said that two members of the French diplomatic staff had been detained by Iranian security forces for several hours. One of them was also subjected to harassment, he said.

The French government described the incident as an “extremely serious act of intimidation” that violated diplomatic immunity.

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The two French embassy staff members were working on programs supporting Iranian civil society, particularly initiatives involving artists and researchers.

Iran has denied France’s allegations regarding the incident. The diplomatic dispute comes amid already strained relations between Paris and Tehran.