International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Colombia Earthquake Leaves at Least 22 Dead as Rescue Efforts Continue

At least 22 people were killed and dozens more were affected by a magnitude 7.4 earthquake that struck Colombia on Monday, with the epicenter located near the municipality of San José del Palmar in the northwestern department of Chocó, authorities reported in a preliminary assessment.

The city of Pereira has so far recorded the highest number of fatalities. Mayor Mauricio Salazar told local media that 18 people had died in the city and warned that a large number of buildings had been damaged.

“The situation is critical, and we are moving forward with assessments while assisting people who remain trapped,” Salazar said.

Authorities in Manizales reported two additional deaths, while two more fatalities were confirmed in the department of Valle del Cauca. Several people were also injured, and structural damage was reported in different communities.

“We are just beginning to establish radio communication with the hospitals. We know that we have three injured people in El Cairo, two deaths in Zarzal, the collapse of an academic structure in Calima Darién, and minor structural damage in Cali,” said María Cristina Lesmes, Valle del Cauca’s health secretary.

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Emergency teams were continuing rescue and assessment operations as authorities worked to determine the full extent of the damage and update the number of casualties.

International

Record 230 Migrants Cross English Channel to UK in Single Boat

A record 230 migrants crossed the English Channel overnight Sunday aboard a small inflatable boat bound for the United Kingdom, according to French maritime rescue services and British media, highlighting the growing number of people being packed onto vessels attempting the dangerous crossing.

More than 20 children were among those aboard the inflatable boat when it departed from the northeastern French coast on Sunday night amid chaotic scenes, France’s maritime rescue service SNSM said in an online statement.

The figure surpasses the previous record for the number of people aboard a single boat, set last month when 165 migrants successfully crossed the busy maritime route.

The latest incident comes just days after an inflatable boat carrying more than 150 people capsized in the Channel after its engine caught fire, triggering a major search-and-rescue operation.

Britain’s Home Office did not confirm the exact number of people aboard Sunday’s vessel but condemned what it described as the “reckless and dangerous tactics” used by criminal gangs facilitating the crossings.

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A spokesperson for Prime Minister Andy Burnham described images of the operation as “shocking,” particularly those showing very young children being placed aboard boats that were not suitable for the journey.
The United Kingdom has spent years attempting to curb these dangerous and politically sensitive Channel crossings. Tens of thousands of migrants have reached the southeastern English coast annually in recent years, keeping the issue at the center of the country’s immigration debate.

International

Joe Biden’s Prostate Cancer Has Spread to His Bones, Son Hunter Reveals

Former U.S. President Joe Biden’s prostate cancer has worsened and spread to his bones and other parts of his body, his son Hunter Biden revealed in a recent interview with the BBC.

Biden disclosed in May 2025, just four months after leaving office as the oldest sitting U.S. president in history, that he had been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer that had already spread to his bones.

The former president subsequently began treatment, including radiation and hormone therapy. In July, while announcing the publication of his memoirs, Biden said the treatment was going “really well.”

However, in an extensive interview broadcast Friday night on the BBC’s Newsnight, Hunter Biden said his father’s condition had progressed despite treatment.

“The cancer has spread and metastasized to his bones and other places,” Hunter Biden said.

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He added that the illness has been “very painful” and, in many ways, “very debilitating,” but said his father continues to remain active.

“He’s still out there. He’s still doing his thing,” Hunter Biden said, emphasizing that his father remains deeply committed to the United States.
The former president’s diagnosis has remained a subject of public attention since it was first announced, particularly because of his age and his decision to continue a public life after leaving the White House.