International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Ten Bodies Found in Mexico’s Zacatecas State Amid Security Operation

Mexican authorities discovered the bodies of 10 people on Saturday in the central state of Zacatecas, a region that was heavily affected by organized crime violence just a few years ago.

The victims were found in different municipalities across the state, which experienced a surge in violence between 2021 and 2022 as rival criminal groups fought for control of key drug trafficking routes.

Rodrigo Reyes, secretary general of the Zacatecas state government, said on social media that the bodies were located in the municipalities of Morelos, Pánuco, and Sain Alto.

Authorities have not yet disclosed the causes of death or identified those responsible for the killings.

Reyes said security forces have launched a coordinated operation to locate those behind the crimes and strengthen the police presence in the affected areas as the investigation continues.

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International

U.S. to Limit Visa Duration for Foreign Students and Journalists

The United States has announced new limits on the legal length of stay for foreign students and journalists, marking the latest tightening of immigration policies under President Donald Trump.

The changes, outlined in an administrative rule published on Thursday, are expected to take effect in September, unless Congress blocks the measure.

Under the new policy, holders of student visas will be allowed to remain in the United States for no more than four years.

Foreign journalists will be limited to 240-day stays—approximately eight months—with the possibility of applying for extensions of the same duration.

The policy imposes even stricter rules on Chinese journalists, whose visas will be capped at 90 days.

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More than 100 international news organizations and press freedom groups, including Agence France-Presse (AFP), criticized the measure in an open letter, arguing that it would reduce both the quantity and quality of international coverage of events in the United States.

The Republican Party, led by President Trump, currently holds a majority in Congress and has pledged to curb both illegal immigration and certain forms of legal immigration.

Previously, the United States generally issued student visas for the full duration of an academic program, while foreign journalists could receive visas valid for up to five years.

Central America

Nicaragua Cuts Diplomatic Ties With Italy Over Red Brigades Dispute

The Nicaraguan government announced on Thursday that it is severing diplomatic relations with Italy following criticism from the Italian government over Nicaragua’s long-standing decision to shelter Alessio Casimirri, a former member of the Red Brigades convicted in Italy for the 1978 kidnapping and murder of former Prime Minister Aldo Moro.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani criticized the administration of co-presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo on Wednesday for continuing to provide refuge to Casimirri, who was sentenced in Italy to six life terms for his role in Moro’s abduction and killing.

In a statement issued Thursday, Nicaragua’s Foreign Ministry said it was ending all diplomatic relations with Italy, describing Tajani’s remarks as “unjustified, aggressive, and irresponsible.”

Tajani made the comments during a gathering of conservative leaders from Europe and Latin America held in Madrid.

“We have absolutely nothing in common with the positions of extremist governments such as Nicaragua, a country that continues to harbor dangerous Red Brigades terrorists like Alessio Casimirri,” Tajani said, according to Italian media.

The diplomatic break marks a new escalation in tensions between the two countries over the decades-old case involving Casimirri, who has lived in Nicaragua for many years despite repeated calls from Italy for his extradition.