International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
International
Looting Spreads in Venezuela’s Hardest-Hit Areas After Deadly Earthquakes
Not even the wires were left behind at a small grocery store. Before the ground had even stopped shaking, looting and theft began in the areas hardest hit by the double earthquake that struck Venezuela.
Reports of robberies have multiplied in the coastal state of La Guaira, located near Caracas and now transformed into a landscape of collapsed buildings and debris.
Videos circulating on social media show groups of people removing boxes of household appliances from a damaged store. Other images show similar boxes being carried on top of vehicles and motorcycles.
Social media platforms have also been filled with accusations against police officers and military personnel who allegedly stole from homes and even from victims who died during the disaster.
A branch of a major pharmacy chain was looted, along with supermarkets and other businesses. Some residents have described the situation as “disaster tourism,” while others say the looting reflects hunger and desperation among people who lost everything in a country already facing a prolonged economic crisis.
“Is it fair that our own people turn against our own people?” said María Esther Bernal, 71, who rented commercial spaces to Chinese merchants, all of which were looted. “They left nothing behind, not even the wallpaper. They even took the cables,” she said.
“Next door, a man died. He was Chinese. People walked over his body while they looted the place. It was a supermarket,” she added.
An AFP journalist witnessed looting in La Guaira since Thursday, following the earthquakes.
Jenifer Mayora, 34, defended some of the actions, saying that “the things people took were because the owners of the stores allowed us to take them.”
However, she criticized the limited response from authorities. “I have been waiting for a mattress so my children can sleep,” she said.
Residents have expressed anger over what they describe as a slow and insufficient response from authorities after the double earthquake, which has left around 1,450 people dead and tens of thousands missing.
Communities are demanding not only faster rescue operations in La Guaira, but also stronger security measures and urgent assistance with food, water, and medicine.
International
UN warns Venezuela earthquakes could affect up to 6.76 million people
Up to 6.76 million people could be affected by the devastating earthquakes that struck Venezuela on June 24, according to an assessment released by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a United Nations agency.
The organization said the projections are based on available population data and damage assessments, and include up to two million people living in Caracas, the country’s capital.
The estimates highlight the potentially massive humanitarian impact of the disaster, the IOM warned.
Entire buildings collapsed in La Guaira, a coastal area north of Caracas, following the powerful twin earthquakes that reached magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5 on Wednesday.
The national death toll has risen to 920, while rescue teams continue searching for people trapped beneath the rubble in coastal regions and other affected areas.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher told AFP on Friday that more than 50,000 people were reported missing.
The IOM also revealed that it worked with Microsoft’s artificial intelligence laboratory on an initial satellite mapping analysis, which showed that 31.5% of buildings in the town of Catia La Mar had suffered damage.
Authorities and international rescue teams continue operations as Venezuela faces one of its largest humanitarian emergencies in recent years.
International
United Nations Coordinates Relief Efforts as Venezuela Death Toll Rises After Twin Quakes
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday expressed his condolences to the people of Venezuela following the two devastating earthquakes that struck the country and highlighted the ongoing coordination between UN humanitarian teams and interim President Delcy Rodríguez.
Speaking during the UN’s daily press briefing, spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said Guterres was deeply saddened by the loss of life and widespread destruction caused by the disaster.
“The Secretary-General is deeply distressed by the loss of life and the widespread devastation caused by the earthquakes that struck Venezuela yesterday. He extends his heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims and wishes a speedy recovery to those injured,” Dujarric stated.
Venezuela was struck on Wednesday by two powerful earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 in magnitude. According to official figures, the disaster has left at least 164 people dead and 971 others injured.
Dujarric noted that preliminary reports indicate significant damage across several states, including the capital, Caracas. Numerous casualties have been reported, while other individuals remain trapped beneath collapsed structures or are still missing.
“Critical infrastructure has been damaged and essential services have been disrupted,” the spokesperson said.
The United Nations confirmed that its humanitarian team remains in close contact with interim President Delcy Rodríguez and other relevant authorities as emergency operations continue.
To support relief efforts, the UN has established a coordination center in Caracas and is assisting local authorities to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches affected communities as quickly and efficiently as possible.
Guterres also welcomed the expressions of solidarity and offers of assistance from countries around the world that responded following news of the disaster, underscoring the importance of international cooperation in addressing the humanitarian emergency.
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