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Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

  • A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

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Central America

U.S. Authorities Accuse Guatemalan Nationals of Using False Information to Sponsor Migrant Minors

Senior officials from the U.S. Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday criminal charges against three Guatemalan citizens accused of using false information to sponsor migrant children who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without a parent or guardian.

According to an indictment filed in Ohio, Maritza Cahuec Coc allegedly submitted at least 12 sponsorship applications, several of which were filed under aliases or contained materially false statements intended to secure custody of the minors.

Under U.S. procedures, unaccompanied migrant children apprehended at the southern border are placed in the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services, which is responsible for their care until they can be released to a qualified sponsor, such as a parent or relative living in the United States.

Prosecutors allege that Cahuec Coc, who reportedly entered the United States illegally in 2018, received payments between late 2020 and 2023 for helping bring 12 migrant minors into the country. Authorities claim she submitted fraudulent documents and misleading information to obtain approval for the sponsorship requests.

The case was announced during a joint press conference led by Acting Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin. However, officials provided limited details about the investigation and instead focused much of their remarks on criticizing immigration policies implemented under the previous administration.

Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have frequently pointed to the increase in unaccompanied migrant children arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border during President Joe Biden’s term, arguing that the government failed to adequately oversee their care and placement.

During Thursday’s briefing, A. Tysen Duva, Assistant Attorney General for the Justice Department’s Criminal Division, alleged that Cahuec Coc used the identities of other individuals and falsely claimed family relationships in order to obtain custody of the children.

“Maritza submitted sponsorship applications using other people’s identities and falsely represented that the minors were the children of close relatives in order to secure their release,” Duva said.

The case remains under investigation, and federal authorities have not yet disclosed additional information regarding the other two Guatemalan nationals charged in connection with the alleged scheme.

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International

Iván Cepeda Open to Revising Colombia’s Peace Policy Ahead of Runoff Election

Colombian presidential candidate Iván Cepeda said Thursday that he is willing to introduce “necessary changes” to the peace policy implemented by President Gustavo Petro, a strategy he helped design and promote during the current administration.

The future of Petro’s controversial “Total Peace” initiative has become one of the central issues in Colombia’s presidential runoff election, scheduled for June 21, where Cepeda will face right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella.

De la Espriella, who narrowly won the first round of voting on May 31, has campaigned on a platform of tougher security measures and a stronger crackdown on drug trafficking and armed criminal groups.

Speaking to AFP in Bogotá, Cepeda acknowledged that adjustments to the peace strategy may be required after Petro’s efforts to negotiate with armed organizations failed to produce the expected results amid a surge in violence across the country.

“We are going to make the necessary changes, of course. We will conduct an assessment,” the 63-year-old senator said during the interview, held ten days before the decisive runoff vote.

Cepeda, a philosopher and longtime human rights advocate, explained that any modifications to the policy would emerge from a broad national dialogue involving political leaders, social organizations and other sectors of Colombian society. However, he did not provide specific details about the proposed changes.

President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” initiative sought to negotiate agreements with guerrilla movements, paramilitary groups and major criminal organizations, including the powerful Clan del Golfo cartel and the National Liberation Army (ELN).

The policy aimed to reduce violence through dialogue and negotiated settlements, but critics argue that it failed to significantly weaken armed groups or improve security conditions in several regions of the country.

As the runoff campaign enters its final stage, the future direction of Colombia’s security and peace policies remains one of the most closely watched issues in the election.

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International

U.S. Halts Military Action Against Iran Amid Diplomatic Breakthrough

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday the suspension of military strikes that had been scheduled against Iran later that evening, citing significant progress in negotiations aimed at ending the conflict that erupted in late February.

In a message posted on social media, Trump said the decision followed high-level discussions with Iranian representatives, which he claimed led to broad agreements on the key elements of a future peace deal.

According to the president, the “final points” of the proposed agreement have been approved in principle and outlined by the parties involved. Trump identified the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt as participants in the diplomatic process.

The U.S. leader also stated that the naval blockade imposed on Iran will remain in place while negotiations continue. He added that the date and location for the formal signing of the agreement will be announced in the coming days. No specific details regarding the content of the deal have been released so far.

The announcement marks a significant shift from comments made by Trump just hours earlier, when he warned of additional military strikes against Iranian territory and reiterated threats involving key oil infrastructure within the Islamic Republic.

The decision comes amid a renewed escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran. In recent days, both sides have exchanged military attacks while diplomatic efforts intensified to prevent a broader conflict in the Middle East.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard recently claimed responsibility for drone attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in several countries across the region. Iranian officials described the operations as retaliation for American strikes against Iranian targets.

Although Trump’s announcement has been viewed as a sign of de-escalation, questions remain regarding the viability of the proposed agreement and the long-term stability of the negotiations. International analysts warn that the situation remains fragile and that any new incident could quickly reignite hostilities between the two countries.

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