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Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

  • A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

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International

United Nations Coordinates Relief Efforts as Venezuela Death Toll Rises After Twin Quakes

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday expressed his condolences to the people of Venezuela following the two devastating earthquakes that struck the country and highlighted the ongoing coordination between UN humanitarian teams and interim President Delcy Rodríguez.

Speaking during the UN’s daily press briefing, spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said Guterres was deeply saddened by the loss of life and widespread destruction caused by the disaster.

“The Secretary-General is deeply distressed by the loss of life and the widespread devastation caused by the earthquakes that struck Venezuela yesterday. He extends his heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims and wishes a speedy recovery to those injured,” Dujarric stated.

Venezuela was struck on Wednesday by two powerful earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 in magnitude. According to official figures, the disaster has left at least 164 people dead and 971 others injured.

Dujarric noted that preliminary reports indicate significant damage across several states, including the capital, Caracas. Numerous casualties have been reported, while other individuals remain trapped beneath collapsed structures or are still missing.

“Critical infrastructure has been damaged and essential services have been disrupted,” the spokesperson said.

The United Nations confirmed that its humanitarian team remains in close contact with interim President Delcy Rodríguez and other relevant authorities as emergency operations continue.

To support relief efforts, the UN has established a coordination center in Caracas and is assisting local authorities to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches affected communities as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Guterres also welcomed the expressions of solidarity and offers of assistance from countries around the world that responded following news of the disaster, underscoring the importance of international cooperation in addressing the humanitarian emergency.

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International

OAS Secretary General Pledges Regional Assistance Following Venezuela Quake Disaster

The Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Albert Ramdin, said on Thursday that the “hemispheric community” stands ready to provide “full support” to Venezuela and its people following the powerful earthquakes that struck the country overnight, leaving at least 164 people dead and nearly 1,000 injured.

Speaking at the conclusion of the OAS General Assembly, Ramdin expressed solidarity not only with Venezuela but also with Colombia, Curaçao and Aruba, where the tremors were also felt.

“Above all, our thoughts are with these peoples,” he said during his remarks.

Ramdin noted that while many details about the disaster are still emerging, countries across the hemisphere are prepared to assist Venezuela as it responds to the crisis.

“Much remains unknown at this stage, but the hemispheric community will be ready to support the people of Venezuela during this very difficult time,” he stated, reiterating the organization’s commitment to helping those affected.

According to updated information released by the Venezuelan government, the powerful earthquakes have been followed by at least 30 aftershocks. Authorities have also reported extensive structural damage, including numerous building collapses in La Guaira, the area considered hardest hit by the disaster.

Rescue efforts are currently focused on La Guaira, where emergency teams continue searching for survivors trapped beneath the rubble as officials assess the full extent of the damage.

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International

Bill Gates Says Jeffrey Epstein Made “Veiled” Threats Over Extramarital Affairs

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates told members of the U.S. Congress that he received “veiled” threats from convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein related to his extramarital affairs, according to a transcript of his testimony released Tuesday.

Gates testified behind closed doors on June 10 before the House Oversight Committee regarding his relationship with the American financier, who died in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking-related charges. Epstein had previously been convicted in 2008 for soliciting prostitution from a minor.

According to the transcript released by the committee, Gates said Epstein appeared to want to use his knowledge of Gates’ personal relationships as leverage to keep him within his circle at a time when Gates was already distancing himself.

“I was not blackmailed, but reading these emails, it seems like Mr. Epstein’s ideas were moving in that direction,” Gates said, referring to documents from the Epstein case released by the Justice Department in January.

Gates added that Epstein never sent him anything he would personally classify as blackmail. However, he said the content of certain draft emails suggested Epstein was “rehearsing” how he, or someone he instructed, might attempt to pressure him.

“He was, in a way, practicing how he himself, or someone he directed, could choose to blackmail me, but none of those messages were ever sent to me,” Gates told lawmakers.

The 70-year-old billionaire had previously stated that he was unaware of Epstein’s criminal behavior and said he had never been involved in harming anyone.

In February, Gates told The Wall Street Journal that his association with Epstein was a serious mistake. He also acknowledged having extramarital relationships, while denying any involvement in Epstein’s criminal activities.

Gates said his relationship with Epstein began in 2011, three years after Epstein’s conviction, and acknowledged that he was aware of Epstein’s legal troubles at the time.

However, Gates said he was told that Epstein had the ability to raise billions of dollars for global health initiatives, an area in which Gates had significant involvement.

“When I met him, I knew he had been convicted,” Gates told lawmakers. “I knew it was of a sexual nature, but I didn’t try to learn more, although I probably should have.”

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