International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Rubio and Lavrov Hold Talks After Large-Scale Russian Assault on Ukraine

The United States remains willing to mediate in the war between Russia and Ukraine, Secretary of State Marco Rubiosaid Tuesday following a large-scale Russian attack against Kyiv.

“Every time you see these large attacks by either side, it is a reminder of why this is a terrible war (…) that must come to an end,” Rubio told reporters after holding a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Speaking during an official visit to India, Rubio stated that the United States is “ready and prepared to do whatever it can” to help facilitate an end to the conflict.

“We hope the opportunity presents itself at some point,” he added.

Russia warned on Monday that it could launch additional strikes against Kyiv, including attacks targeting what it described as “decision-making centers,” after carrying out weekend bombardments involving dozens of drones and missiles across Ukraine. The attacks reportedly killed four people.

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According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Lavrov urged the United States during the call to evacuate diplomats from its embassy in Kyiv.

Rubio later clarified that Moscow had issued a warning to all embassies in the Ukrainian capital, not only to the U.S. diplomatic mission.

International

Omar García Harfuch Announces Arrest of “El Chapo’s” Nephew

Mexican security forces captured a nephew of convicted drug lord Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán during an operation carried out in the northern border state of Sonora, authorities confirmed on Tuesday.

The suspect, identified as Isai “N,” is reportedly wanted by authorities in the United States.

Omar García Harfuch, Mexico’s secretary of security, stated on X that the detainee is a “nephew of ‘El Chapo,’” the former leader of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, who is currently serving a life sentence in the United States.

Mexican media identified the suspect as Isai Martínez Zepeda, who had reportedly been arrested in June 2008 while allegedly carrying high-caliber weapons.

However, the press office of Mexico’s Security Ministry told AFP that it did not have additional details regarding the earlier arrest.

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Two sons of Joaquín Guzmán, Ovidio Guzmán López and Joaquín Guzmán López, are also imprisoned in the United States on drug trafficking charges.

International

Diplomatic Talks Continue as Iran Accuses U.S. of Ceasefire Violations

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran accused the United States on Tuesday of violating the fragile ceasefire over the past 48 hours in the province of Hormozgan Province, although officials did not specify the exact incident.

The accusations came after the United States Central Command announced on Monday that U.S. forces had targeted Iranian missile-launch facilities and vessels allegedly attempting to deploy mines in the Gulf region.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that its forces fired on a U.S. aircraft that allegedly attempted to enter Iranian airspace.

“The terrorist U.S. military, which has continued its illegal and unjustified actions since the ceasefire (…) committed a serious violation of the ceasefire in Hormozgan Province over the past 48 hours,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The ministry also warned that Iran “will not leave any hostile act unanswered and will not hesitate to defend itself,” without providing further details.