International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
International
FBI Says It Disrupted Alleged Plot Targeting White House During UFC Event
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) announced Tuesday that it had disrupted an alleged plot to attack the White House during a major Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) event held in Washington over the weekend.
FBI Director Kash Patel said the threat was identified on June 10 through a joint investigation involving multiple law enforcement agencies. According to Patel, swift action by authorities led to the arrest of several suspects before the alleged plan could be carried out.
“On June 10, the FBI and our law enforcement partners became aware of a potential threat targeting UFC America 250 in Washington. Thanks to the rapid response of the FBI and our partners, multiple individuals are now in custody, and the alleged attack plans were stopped before they could be executed,” Patel said.
He emphasized that the operation demonstrated the ability of security agencies to detect and prevent potential threats at large public gatherings. Patel added that the investigation remains ongoing and that additional details will be released as court proceedings move forward.
According to reports from U.S. media outlets, five individuals have been arrested so far. The suspects were identified as Tycen Proper of Ohio, Daniel Eskridge of Missouri, Abraham Hermosillo Álvarez of Nebraska, and Bryan Omar Roa and Michael Alan Thomas, both from California. Authorities are also investigating the possible involvement of 18 additional individuals.
Investigators allege that the plot involved the use of drones equipped with explosives to target buildings near the sporting event. The plan reportedly sought to trigger a mass evacuation and direct attendees toward areas where snipers were allegedly positioned. Authorities further claim that a second phase of the operation included an attempted assault on the White House.
The U.S. Secret Service confirmed that it worked closely with the FBI throughout the operation. Secret Service Director Sean Curran stated that security teams conducted extensive efforts to identify those involved and eliminate any threat to attendees and protected facilities.
The investigation reportedly uncovered communications conducted through the messaging application Signal, where several suspects allegedly discussed details related to the planned attack. A forensic analysis of one of the seized mobile phones revealed at least 23 users participating in conversations connected to the alleged planning activities.
Court documents also indicate that some of the suspects allegedly intended to target U.S. political figures. Among the reported targets were members of Congress who had received contributions from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Investigators further stated that one of the primary suspects had posted antisemitic messages and expressions of support for Adolf Hitler on social media, evidence that is now part of the ongoing judicial investigation.
International
Brazil helicopter crash in Rio de Janeiro kills six, including pilots and international figures
The Rio de Janeiro Civil Police confirmed on Monday the identities of three of the six victims killed in a helicopter collision that occurred the previous morning in the Recreio dos Bandeirantes neighborhood.
All three identified victims are Brazilian nationals: the pilots of the aircraft, Charles Marsillac and Alexandre Souza, and music producer Lucas Brito.
The identities of the three foreign victims have not yet been officially confirmed. They include U.S. singer Oliver Tree, Argentine YouTuber Gaspar Prim—known online as “Gaspi”—and Argentine producer Lucas Vignale, all of whom were listed on the flight manifest.
According to police, forensic experts from the Legal Medical Institute have already collected DNA samples in order to identify the foreign victims, whose bodies were severely burned.
One of the helicopters crashed into a private parking lot, triggering a fire that destroyed around twenty electric vehicles. That aircraft was carrying the pilot and four passengers, including the three foreign nationals.
The second helicopter, which had only the pilot on board, crashed approximately 100 meters away from the first impact site.
Rio de Janeiro’s deputy mayor, Eduardo Cavaliere, stated that both helicopters were operating transport flights toward Angra dos Reis on the Rio coastline and toward the mountainous region of the state.
Oliver Tree, 32, was in Brazil as part of an international tour. The artist, known for songs such as “Life Goes On” and “Miss You,” had performed to a large audience in São Paulo a week earlier and was scheduled to continue his tour in Europe.
Argentine content creator Gaspar Prim, 23, had built a following of more than two million on social media platforms, gaining popularity for humorous and often controversial video productions that had occasionally been removed by hosting platforms.
International
Mexico and U.S. Launch New Bilateral Security Group to Combat Fentanyl and Organized Crime
The governments of Mexico and the United States officially launched the Bilateral Implementation Group (BIG) on Friday, a new initiative aimed at strengthening cooperation on security issues and enhancing joint efforts against transnational crime.
In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced that he and Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco addressed officials from both countries who will lead what he described as a “new phase of bilateral cooperation.” The initiative seeks to curb the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, illegal firearms, and human trafficking across the shared border.
Earlier this week, Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had confirmed that senior security officials from both nations would meet in Mexico City on June 12 to review and advance existing cooperation agreements.
Through social media, Ambassador Johnson explained that the new bilateral group is designed to improve coordination between the two governments by placing greater emphasis on implementation, accountability, and measurable results. The effort will also focus on combating transnational criminal organizations operating across North America.
“The participation of 15 U.S. government agencies, working alongside their Mexican counterparts, reflects the seriousness of this effort and our shared commitment to delivering measurable results,” Johnson said.
The ambassador also highlighted several achievements that he attributed to ongoing bilateral cooperation. According to Johnson, maritime drug trafficking into the United States has declined by more than 95 percent, while overdose deaths have fallen by 35 percent.
He further noted that Mexican authorities have seized more than 400 metric tons of illegal drugs and dismantled over 2,300 clandestine laboratories as part of their efforts to combat organized crime and narcotics production.
The launch of the Bilateral Implementation Group marks the latest step in the security partnership between Mexico and the United States, as both countries seek to address shared challenges related to drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and the activities of criminal networks operating across the region.
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