International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

Peruvian presidential candidate proposes death penalty amid crime surge

Peru is facing an unprecedented surge in crime ahead of its presidential election scheduled for April 12, with violence fueled by extortion networks and a wave of contract killings linked to organized crime.

Police data show that 2,200 homicides tied to organized crime were recorded in 2025, while extortion complaints increased by 19%, underscoring the growing security crisis in the South American nation.

Amid this backdrop, presidential candidate Álvarez has proposed reinstating the death penalty if elected, arguing that extreme measures are needed to curb the violence.

To implement the proposal, Álvarez said Peru would withdraw from the American Convention on Human Rights—also known as the Pact of San José—which the country signed in 1978. The agreement prevents member states that have abolished capital punishment from reinstating it.

Currently, Peruvian law only allows the death penalty in cases of treason during wartime.

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“We have to leave the Pact of San José and apply the death penalty in Peru because those miserable criminals don’t deserve to live,” Álvarez told AFP during a campaign stop at a market in Callao, the port city neighboring Lima.

“An iron fist against those criminals,” he added, proposing to declare hitmen as military targets.

During the campaign event, Álvarez walked through stalls selling vegetables, groceries, and fish, greeting vendors while musicians played cumbia music nearby.

The 62-year-old candidate, who spent more than four decades working in television as a comedian, is a newcomer to politics and is running for president under the País para Todos party.

Polls place him fifth in voter preference with nearly 4% support in a fragmented race featuring 36 candidates.

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“I am an artist who has taken a step into politics to bring peace to my country,” Álvarez told reporters while surrounded by supporters.

International

FBI: Man who attacked Michigan synagogue died from self-inflicted gunshot

The man who died during Thursday’s attack on a synagogue in the United States suffered a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head, according to the FBI.

FBI agent Jennifer Runyan told reporters that the suspect, identified as 41-year-old Lebanese citizen Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, shot himself at some point during the confrontation.

“At some point during the shooting, Ghazali suffered a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head,” Runyan said during a press conference.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security confirmed the suspect’s identity.

Authorities said Ghazali drove a truck into the Temple Israel synagogue in West Bloomfield, located in the state of Michigan, on Thursday.

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According to Michael Bouchard, sheriff of Oakland County, synagogue security personnel noticed the vehicle and confronted the suspect with gunfire.

Investigators said it would be premature to speculate about the motive for the attack, although reports indicate Ghazali recently lost relatives during Israeli strikes in Lebanon earlier this month.

“It would be irresponsible for me to speculate about his motive,” Runyan said.

Ghazali arrived in Detroit in 2011 on a spouse visa for U.S. citizens and obtained American citizenship in 2016, according to reporting by The New York Times.

He was the father of two teenagers, divorced from his wife in 2024, and had recently been working as a waiter.

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The newspaper also reported that Ghazali attended a memorial service in the nearby city of Dearborn for relatives killed in the recent conflict, alongside other grieving family members from the Lebanese town of Machghara.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation said the incident is being investigated as an act of violence targeting the Jewish community.

A source from Michigan’s Lebanese-American community told CBS News that several of Ghazali’s relatives had been killed roughly ten days before the attack, leaving him deeply devastated.

International

Mexican Navy Ships Deliver Third Shipment of Humanitarian Aid to Cuba

Two logistics support vessels from the Mexican Navy — the ARM Papaloapan and the ARM Huasteco — docked again on Friday in the bay of Havana carrying a third shipment of humanitarian aid for Cuba.

The vessels had previously arrived on the Caribbean island on February 28 with a second cargo that included 1,200 tons of food, sent to help alleviate the country’s ongoing crisis, which has worsened following the U.S. oil restrictions affecting fuel supplies to the island.

Cuba’s deputy foreign minister Josefina Vidal confirmed the new shipment in a social media post.

“Two ships carrying a third shipment of aid from the Government and the people of Mexico for the Cuban people are now arriving at the port of Havana. Thank you Mexico for your solidarity with Cuba,” she wrote.

Previous aid shipments

During the second shipment, the Papaloapan transported 1,078 tons of beans and powdered milk, while the Huastecocarried 92 tons of beans and 23 tons of assorted food products collected by social organizations with support from the government of Mexico City.

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In recent months, Mexico has become the largest provider of humanitarian aid to Cuba, sending around 2,000 tons of supplies, mostly staple foods and hygiene products, in the two shipments prior to Friday’s delivery.

The first shipment alone included 814 tons of food.

Cuba praises Mexico’s support

Hours before the ships arrived, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel highlighted Mexico’s support during a televised appearance, describing the country as “a friendly and brotherly nation that has shown tremendous solidarity,”particularly praising Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Díaz-Canel also addressed reports suggesting that Mexican donations were being resold in state-run stores, dismissing them as a “disinformation campaign” promoted by right-wing groups.