International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Five Bodies Found in Ecuador as Police Probe Suspected Gang Turf War
Ecuadorian authorities are investigating the deaths of five people whose bodies were found inside a rural home, in what police believe may be linked to a territorial dispute between organized criminal groups.
The victims, aged between 21 and 30, were discovered Tuesday in the town of La Troncal, in the Andean province of Cañar. Police reported that two of the bodies were bound with wire, while a burned-out vehicle was found outside the residence.
Investigators said graffiti on the walls of the house included messages such as “Lobos territory” and “Lobos active,” suggesting a possible connection to the criminal organization known as Los Lobos.
Police believe the killings were likely the result of a conflict over territorial control between rival gangs.
The discovery came on the same day authorities arrested a former mayor in the neighboring province of Azuay. Officials identified him as the alleged main financial backer of Los Lobos, one of Ecuador’s most powerful criminal organizations.
Ecuador has experienced an unprecedented surge in violence in recent years, driven by criminal groups involved in drug trafficking, illegal mining, kidnapping, and extortion.
According to Insight Crime, the country recorded 51 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025—equivalent to roughly one killing every hour—making it one of the most violent countries in Latin America.
International
Georgia Teen Sentenced to Life Without Parole for Deadly School Shooting
A Georgia teenager who killed four people in a 2024 school shooting was sentenced Tuesday to life in prison without the possibility of parole after pleading guilty to the attack.
Colt Gray, now 16, admitted to opening fire at Apalachee High School in Winder, about 70 kilometers (45 miles) northeast of Atlanta. He was 14 years old at the time of the shooting.
The attack claimed the lives of two students and two teachers, while nine other people were injured. Despite being a minor when the shooting occurred, Gray was prosecuted as an adult.
During the sentencing hearing, Judge Nicholas Trimm acknowledged the failures of the teenager’s family but said they did not excuse his actions.
“Your parents failed you. Your family failed you. But that does not absolve you,” the judge said.
Trimm also rejected any suggestion that the shooting was motivated by bullying or personal grievances.
“You were not bullied at Apalachee. This was not driven by hate. You didn’t know anyone at that school. It was simply the desire to commit a notorious act,” he told Gray.
The case also led to the prosecution of the shooter’s father, Colin Gray, who was convicted in March of voluntary manslaughter and involuntary manslaughter. The case marked one of the first instances in which a parent was held criminally responsible for a mass shooting carried out by their child.
Prosecutors said Colin Gray had given his son an AR-15-style rifle as a Christmas gift in 2023, despite being aware that the teenager had previously threatened to carry out a school shooting.
Authorities said the same rifle was used in the attack less than a year later. Months before the shooting, FBI investigators had alerted local law enforcement after receiving reports of online messages linked to the Gray family’s internet address that referenced plans for a school massacre.
The case reflects growing legal scrutiny in the United States over the responsibility of parents whose children commit acts of gun violence.
In a similar case, the parents of a Michigan teenager who killed four people at his high school in 2021 were convicted of involuntary manslaughter in 2024 and sentenced to prison terms ranging from 10 to 15 years.
According to U.S. health authorities, firearms have been the leading cause of death among children and teenagers in the United States for several years.
International
Portuguese Authorities Seize 2.6 Tons of Cocaine Worth More Than $550 Million in Drug Bust
Italian financial police reported Monday that Portuguese authorities intercepted a speedboat carrying more than 2.6 tons of cocaine, with an estimated street value exceeding $550 million.
Four people — two Spanish nationals, one Albanian citizen, and a man from Gibraltar — were arrested in connection with the operation, according to Italian authorities.
The vessel was intercepted off the coast of Lisbon by Portugal’s maritime police following an investigation led by Italian authorities.
Italian financial police estimated that the seized shipment had a street value of approximately 500 million euros ($570 million), making it one of the largest drug seizures reported in the region in recent years.
Portuguese authorities said the interception took place on Thursday, about 90 kilometers (50 nautical miles) southwest of Cape Espichel, during an operation targeting international drug trafficking routes.
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