International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Ombudsman confirms deaths of six minors in bombing targeting FARC dissidents
Colombia’s Ombudsman’s Office reported on Saturday the deaths of six minors who had been recruited by guerrilla groups, killed during the deadliest airstrike ordered by President Gustavo Petro in an Amazonian region in the south of the country.
Amid pre-election criticism and pressure from the United States demanding stronger action against drug trafficking, Petro has intensified military operations against armed groups. Over the past week, a series of bombings have left 28 people dead.
The minors were killed in an airstrike announced on Tuesday against a camp belonging to dissident factions of the now-defunct FARC guerrilla in the department of Guaviare, resulting in 19 deaths—the largest operation of its kind under Petro’s administration.
“This is all deeply regrettable; it is war in its most painful and inhumane expression, harming the most vulnerable—minors recruited due to lack of protection and now turned into military targets,” said Ombudswoman Iris Marín in an audio message sent to the press, confirming the deaths of six minors without providing their ages.
Marín held the guerrilla group led by the country’s most-wanted man, alias Iván Mordisco, responsible for recruiting the children.
However, she also stressed that “the military forces must take every feasible precaution to protect children,” in accordance with international principles that require “careful evaluation of the means and methods of warfare to avoid disproportionate or unnecessary harm.”
International
Colombia reaches $4.5 billion deal to acquire 17 Gripen Fighter Jets from Saab
The Colombian government has finalized a negotiation agreement with the Swedish company Saab for the purchase of 17 SAP-39 Gripen fighter jets, valued at more than $4.5 billion, according to local media reports.
Colombian outlets indicated that payments are scheduled to begin in 2026, starting with an initial installment of 100 billion Colombian pesos. However, the aircraft will be delivered between 2027 and 2032, when the final jet is expected to arrive in Colombia.
This new contract represents the second-largest public purchase made by Colombia so far this century, surpassed only by the investment in the Bogotá metro system, local media noted.
The agreement is expected to be officially signed during the ceremony commemorating the 216th anniversary of the Colombian Aerospace Force, to be held in Cali on November 14 of this year.
International
Venezuela accuses U.S. of using Naval Deployment to pressure Maduro government
The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, joined the U.S. Navy’s anti-drug operation in Latin America on Tuesday—a deployment Venezuela has condemned as an attempt to pressure President Nicolás Maduro from power.
In a statement, the U.S. Southern Command confirmed that the carrier, ordered to deploy nearly three weeks ago, has entered its area of responsibility, which includes Latin America and the Caribbean.
“The world’s largest aircraft carrier will strengthen the United States’ ability to detect, monitor, and dismantle illicit actors and activities that threaten the security and prosperity of U.S. territory and our safety in the Western Hemisphere,” said Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
According to the White House, the U.S. government under Donald Trump has carried out about twenty operations in the Caribbean and the Pacific since early September, resulting in the deaths of 76 suspected drug traffickers.
However, U.S. authorities have not yet presented evidence that the targeted vessels were being used for drug trafficking or posed a direct threat to the country.
The operations have raised concerns in Caracas, where the Maduro administration views the deployment as a strategic move aimed at provoking regime change in Venezuela.
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