International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Afghan man sentenced to life in prison for deadly Munich vehicle attack
A German court on Thursday sentenced an Afghan man to life imprisonment for a 2025 attack in which he drove a vehicle into a trade union demonstration in Munich, killing two people and injuring around 40 others.
The Munich Higher Regional Court ruled that the 25-year-old man, identified only as Fahrad N. under German privacy laws, committed a particularly serious crime.
Presiding judge Michael Höhne said the court was convinced that the defendant deliberately drove his vehicle into the protesters from behind. He described the scene of the attack as a “real field of destruction.”
The verdict followed the request of federal prosecutors, while the defense had sought a 15-year prison sentence and admission to a psychiatric hospital.
Fahrad N. was convicted of two counts of murder and 23 counts of attempted murder, one more charge than prosecutors had requested. He was also found guilty of 19 counts of serious bodily harm and three counts of intentional injury.
The attack occurred on February 13, 2025, as Munich prepared to welcome international leaders attending the Munich Security Conference, while Germany was entering the final stage of its parliamentary election campaign.
That morning, around 1,400 people were marching through the city center in a demonstration organized by the services union Verdi. According to investigators, the Afghan national drove a BMW Mini past police officers escorting the march before intentionally crashing into the crowd.
The vehicle traveled approximately 23 meters before coming to a stop.
Fahrad N., who was interested in bodybuilding, arrived in Germany at the age of 15 as an unaccompanied minor and had his residence permit renewed. Authorities had previously considered him “well integrated” into local society.
Investigators said he later became radicalized under the influence of Afghan clerics he followed on social media in the months before the attack.
According to prosecutors, the defendant believed Western countries were responsible for the suffering of Muslim populations in Afghanistan and the Middle East, and concluded that he should “kill randomly selected people in Germany.”
International
Mexican TikTok Influencer Shot Dead While Livestreaming in Sinaloa
A Mexican influencer was shot dead Tuesday night while livestreaming on social media outside a restaurant in the violence-plagued state of Sinaloa, in northwestern Mexico.
César Gastelum, who had more than 500,000 followers on TikTok, was broadcasting live with two friends while taking part in a challenge in which they dressed as food delivery workers. During the livestream, a motorcycle carrying two individuals stopped beside them, and the driver shot Gastelum in the head.
The broadcast was interrupted immediately after the attack and was later removed by the platform. However, several news outlets preserved parts of the footage and shared images of the incident.
Initial reports from local police indicated that a delivery worker had been killed. However, after reviewing the recording and gathering witness statements, authorities identified the victim as Gastelum, who was approximately 25 years old, according to local media reports. The influencer was known for sharing lifestyle-related content.
The attack took place in a busy shopping area near the Sinaloa Attorney General’s Office in Culiacán, the state capital. Military and police forces were deployed to the scene, while forensic experts collected evidence and removed the victim’s body, according to local television reports.
Sinaloa has been experiencing a wave of violence for the past two years due to internal disputes within the powerful local drug cartel.
Local media have reported that around a dozen influencers, some allegedly linked to criminal groups, have been killed in recent years in the state.
International
Iran Rejects Negotiations With U.S. as Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked Amid New Attack
Tensions remained high in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after a vessel was hit by a projectile, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that negotiations with Iran were moving forward and that the strategic maritime route could reopen as early as Tuesday.
Tehran denied that direct talks were taking place, but Trump insisted that discussions were underway and described the situation as a final opportunity for Iran to reach an agreement.
“This is the last chance they have to sign a good document,” Trump told reporters at the White House, adding that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could happen “literally tomorrow” Tuesday.
The comments came after another escalation in rhetoric from Washington. Last week, Trump threatened Iran with military strikes before unexpectedly changing course on Sunday and announcing that negotiations with Tehran would resume.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai rejected the U.S. president’s version of events, stating that Tehran was not holding negotiations with Washington.
“At this moment, we are not negotiating with the United States. We are negotiating with Oman to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” Baqai said.
Earlier, the Iranian official said that Tehran was close to reaching an agreement with Oman, which lies across the Strait of Hormuz, to reopen the crucial waterway that plays a key role in global energy trade.
The maritime route has remained blocked by Iran since the outbreak of hostilities following U.S. and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic on February 28.
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced Tuesday that they had launched an attack against an airport in Saudi Arabia. The Iran-backed group had previously disrupted the passage of Saudi vessels through the Red Sea, an alternative route used for crude exports by the world’s largest oil producer.
The continued instability in the region has raised concerns over global energy supplies, as the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important chokepoints for international oil shipments.
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