International

Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

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The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

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‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

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Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

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Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

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Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

International

HRW Warns Trump’s Influence Has Weakened Human Rights in Latin America

Human Rights Watch (HRW) warned that the political influence and rhetoric of U.S. President Donald Trump have contributed to a deterioration of human rights conditions across Latin America and the Caribbean. In its World Report 2026, the organization stated that several governments in the region have committed abuses against migrants and citizens, or have used U.S. policies as justification to impose harsher repressive measures.

During the first year of Trump’s new term, HRW observed that multiple countries violated the rights of foreign nationals under direct pressure from Washington. Other governments deepened security strategies based on militarization, mass detentions and excessive use of force, according to the report.

“The impact of the Trump administration has undoubtedly been negative in Latin America and the Caribbean,” said Juanita Goebertus, HRW’s Americas director. However, she emphasized that “governments in the region remain responsible for defending democracy and fundamental rights, regardless of who is in power in Washington.”

HRW also reported that the United States significantly reduced cooperation funding for human rights organizations and independent media. At the same time, countries such as El Salvador, Peru and Ecuador passed laws allowing the arbitrary closure of civil society organizations and media outlets, weakening democratic systems and institutional checks and balances.

The organization further criticized what it described as a “double standard” in U.S. foreign policy, which condemns human rights violations in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua while overlooking serious abuses committed by allies such as El Salvador, Peru and Ecuador. The report also included criticism of the U.S. military attack against Venezuela in early 2026, warning that it could strengthen Nicolás Maduro’s regime and respond primarily to U.S. political and commercial interests.

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International

Delcy Rodríguez Takes Control of Chavismo as Venezuela Enters a U.S.-Supervised Transition

With short speeches and an academic image, Delcy Rodríguez—the woman sworn in as Venezuela’s acting president—has taken the helm of Chavismo at a critical moment, as the movement seeks to ensure its survival while the country enters a phase of change overseen by the United States, putting the foundations of the revolution to the test.

Following the military operation on January 3 that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the Chavista leadership moved quickly to fill the power vacuum and confront the new political dynamic from within the state apparatus. In this context, Rodríguez has emerged as the central figure tasked with steering the ruling movement through an uncertain transition.

Although she has held telephone conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Rodríguez has publicly insisted on Venezuela’s independence and has sharply criticized an opposition that currently lacks meaningful influence within the political landscape.

“Enough of Washington’s orders over Venezuelan politicians. Venezuelan politics must be the one to resolve our differences and internal conflicts,” Rodríguez said on January 25, while defending her proposal for a “political dialogue” with both “like-minded” and “divergent” sectors, which she had presented two days earlier.

International

Epstein Denies Being ‘the Devil’ in Newly Released Video Interview

Jeffrey Epstein claims he was the least dangerous type of sex offender and denied being “the devil” in a video interview included in the latest batch of documents released over the weekend by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The roughly two-hour interview was conducted by Steve Bannon, a former adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, and appears to have been recorded at the late financier’s New York residence on an unknown date.

Epstein died by suicide in 2019 while in jail awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges involving minors. Since December, the U.S. government has released millions of documents related to the case under transparency laws.

“Do you think you’re the devil incarnate?” Bannon asks Epstein in the video interview revealed in the latest release.

“No, but I do have a good mirror,” Epstein replies with a smile, wearing a black shirt and glasses. When pressed again, he adds, “I don’t know. Why would you say that?”

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Epstein, who pleaded guilty in 2008 to soliciting a minor for prostitution, also appears to downplay the seriousness of his conviction.

He objects when Bannon refers to him as a “Level Three sexual predator,” a classification in the United States indicating a very serious threat to public safety.

“No, I’m the lowest,” Epstein says.

“But still an offender,” Bannon responds.

“Yes,” Epstein replies.

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The exchange comes after Bannon asks Epstein whether he considers his wealth to be “dirty,” suggesting it was earned by advising “the worst people in the world.”

Epstein insists that he made his money legally, while acknowledging that “ethics is always a complicated issue.”

He claims he donated money to help eradicate polio in Pakistan and India, apparently in an attempt to justify the origins of his fortune.

The documents also show that Bannon maintained regular correspondence with Epstein, who offered to help the far-right political figure spread his conservative ideology in Europe.

Since Trump took office in January 2025, U.S. authorities have released millions of pages related to Epstein, along with photos and videos.

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These materials have shed new light on Epstein’s ties to high-profile business executives such as Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, celebrities including filmmaker Woody Allen, and academics and political figures, among them Trump and former President Bill Clinton.