International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Trump to decide soon on deportation exemptions for construction and farm workers
U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday in Florida that he will make a decision in the coming weeks regarding exemptions from deportations for workers in the construction and agriculture sectors.
Trump made these remarks to the media during a visit to the new migrant detention center, ‘Alligator Alcatraz,’ located in the middle of a wetland in Florida, the White House reported.
ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) raids have targeted many of these workers, sparking fear among them and threatening to slow down two sectors that are vital to the U.S. economy.
In construction, 25.7% of workers are immigrants, and 14.1% of the total workforce nationwide is undocumented, according to the American Immigration Council.
In agriculture, the percentage of undocumented employees rises to 42%, according to data from the Department of Agriculture cited by the New York Times.
International
IDB plans $11 billion in sustainable financing to support countries facing currency risks
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) aims to unlock at least $11 billion in sustainable financing to help countries address challenges including natural disasters that strain their currencies and hinder private sector investment.
As the United States and other wealthier countries reduce official development assistance, multilateral lenders face pressure to find new ways to tackle issues such as climate change and biodiversity loss. During the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, IDB President Ilan Goldfajn stated that the measures adopted by the IDB are expected to inspire more private sector contributions, which is a key priority of the conference.
“We are not just announcing ideas; we are launching what the private sector is asking for: credible tools, scalable platforms, and real opportunities to invest with impact and confidence,” he added.
Support will include a new platform designed to help countries manage the risk of large swings in their national currencies that can deter international investors by making returns harder to predict. Based on a program in Brazil that has already attracted $8 billion from the private sector since its launch last year, the plan is to expand the concept to other regional economies over the next three years and at least double the amount mobilized.
Called FX EDGE, the platform will offer a credit line that activates if a currency drops sharply—a common problem during political or debt crises or after natural disasters—ensuring debtors can continue to service their loans in dollars or other foreign currencies.
The platform also aims to enable greater use of long-term currency hedging instruments, such as derivatives, through local banks and financial institutions, backed by the IDB’s credit rating.
International
Maduro’s government appeals to Vatican for help rescuing migrant children
Este lunes, durante su programa semanal ‘Con Maduro +’, el mandatario venezolano anunció que pediría al sumo pontífice su ayuda para rescatar a 18 niños migrantes.
“Yo sé que el papa es un hombre que comprende estos temas. Le pido ayuda a la Iglesia católica, apostólica y romana, al papa León, para que la Iglesia católica de Estados Unidos y la Iglesia católica de El Salvador proteja a los migrantes y nos ayude con sus gestiones para rescatar a estos niños y a estas niñas”, indicó Maduro en el espacio transmitido por VTV.
Más temprano, Rodríguez había pedido al alto comisionado de la ONU para los Derechos Humanos, Volker Türk, y al coordinador residente de la ONU en Venezuela, Gianluca Rampolla, pronunciarse sobre este hecho y exigió a Washington devolver a los pequeños.
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