International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Germany says football bodies alone will decide on possible World Cup boycott

The German Football Association (DFB) and FIFA will decide with full “autonomy” whether to boycott the upcoming World Cup, which will be hosted mainly by the United States in six months, following threats made by former U.S. president Donald Trump, the German government told AFP on Tuesday.

Trump has threatened to seize Greenland and impose higher tariffs on European countries that oppose the plan, raising political tensions between the United States and Europe.

“This assessment therefore lies with the relevant federations, in this case the DFB and FIFA. The federal government will respect that decision,” Sports State Secretary Christiane Schenderlein said in a statement emailed to AFP.

AFP had asked the German government about the possibility of a boycott of the World Cup to be jointly hosted by Canada, the United States and Mexico from June 11 to July 19.

“The federal government respects the autonomy of sport. Decisions regarding participation in major sporting events or possible boycotts fall exclusively within the responsibility of the relevant sports federations, not the political sphere,” said Schenderlein, a member of the conservative CDU, the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

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International

Daily Mail publisher insists reports relied on legitimate sources amid privacy trial

Two British tabloids accused of phone hacking and other forms of “unlawful information gathering” against Prince Harry and six other individuals, including singer Elton John, insisted on Tuesday that their reporting relied on legitimate sources.

Associated Newspapers Ltd (ANL), the publisher of the Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday, sought to rebut allegations of privacy violations through illegal methods on the second day of trial at London’s High Court, following a lawsuit filed by the seven claimants.

Prince Harry, 41, who attended court hearings on both Monday and Tuesday, could be called to testify starting Wednesday in a trial expected to last up to nine weeks.

Lawyers for the claimants said the alleged illegal activities took place between 1993 and 2011, with some incidents reportedly extending as late as 2018. They argue that the tabloids hired private investigators to intercept phone calls and obtain confidential information, including detailed phone records, medical histories, and bank statements.

However, Anthony White, counsel for ANL, told the court that the trial would show the company presents “a compelling account of a pattern of lawful source acquisition” for its articles.

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White added that the claims would require the court to believe that journalists and staff at the tabloids had engaged in widespread dishonesty, which the company strongly denies.

International

Death toll from southern Spain train crash rises to 40

The death toll from the train accident that occurred on Sunday in southern Spain has risen to 40, according to investigative sources cited by EFE on Monday afternoon.

Since early Monday, search operations have focused on the damaged carriages of a Renfe train bound for Huelva, which collided with the last derailed cars of an Iryo train traveling from Málaga to Madrid after it left the tracks.

The crash has also left more than 150 people injured. Of these, 41 remain hospitalized, including 12 in intensive care units at hospitals across the Andalusia region.

More than 220 Civil Guard officers are working at the site, searching the railway line and surrounding areas for key evidence to help identify victims and determine the causes of the accident.

The tragedy has revived memories of the deadliest railway disasters in Europe in recent decades. In Spain, the most severe occurred on July 24, 2013, when an Alvia train derailed near Santiago de Compostela, killing 80 people and injuring 130 others.

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At the European level, the worst rail disaster took place on June 3, 1998, in Eschede, northern Germany, when a high-speed train struck a bridge pillar at 200 kilometers per hour, resulting in 98 deaths and 120 injuries.