International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Heat wave puts more than 70 million Americans under alerts as temperatures near 46°C
More than 70 million people remained under heat alerts Monday as an intense heat wave continued across the southern United States, particularly Florida and states along the Mexican border, where temperatures and heat indexes could reach as high as 46 degrees Celsius, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
Several cities recorded or tied temperature records over the weekend and into Monday, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale in Florida; Laredo, Borger and Austin’s airport in Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina; and Memphis, Tennessee.
The NWS warned that the heat wave will continue affecting the southern and southeastern United States, with maximum temperatures expected to remain near 38°C to 40°C for several days. The heat index, which combines temperature and humidity to estimate how hot conditions feel, could reach 46°C.
The extreme heat is also spreading into the Southwest, where temperatures began rising again between Monday and Tuesday. Forecast highs in the region range from about 38°C to 43°C.
Heat alerts remain in effect across Nevada, Arizona and California, including areas in southern Arizona and California near the Mexican border, as authorities warn of the risks posed by prolonged extreme temperatures.
The NWS urged residents to limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, ensure access to air conditioning or cooling centers, and check on vulnerable friends, neighbors and family members.
The United States is experiencing a summer marked by above-average temperatures and repeated heat waves. One of the most intense episodes occurred during the July 4 weekend, when extreme heat was blamed for roughly 30 deaths.
July was the hottest month ever recorded in the United States since measurements began, with the average temperature across the contiguous country approaching 25°C, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The combination of extreme heat and drought conditions has also fueled wildfires. Nearly 3 million hectares have burned across the country so far in 2026, making it the largest area affected by wildfires in a decade.
International
Trump warns Iran over nuclear ambitions as U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline passes
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated Monday that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, as a 60-day deadline set under a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran expired without an agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East.
“The number one goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way or under any circumstances, a nuclear weapon,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
The memorandum, signed on June 17, called for an “immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts” as part of a broader negotiation process aimed at ending the conflict. However, the deadline expired Monday without a peace agreement, while both Washington and Tehran continued to maintain their respective positions.
The expiration is largely symbolic, as military clashes resumed during the 60-day period. The Strait of Hormuz also remains blocked, contributing to elevated global oil prices.
Trump escalated his rhetoric toward Tehran last Friday, saying he planned to declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory after defeating Iran.
“After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, very soon I will essentially declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory,” Trump said during a political rally in Long Island, New York. He also claimed that the United States currently controls the passage of vessels through the strategic waterway.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is preparing additional economic measures against Iran that he described as unprecedented.
“Stay tuned for new announcements next week because we are going to implement measures unlike anything ever seen in the history of the economic isolation of a country,” Bessent said.
The Treasury secretary indicated that the measures would form part of a broader “double hit” strategy that could also involve maintaining the blockade of Iranian ports.
International
Brazil’s Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro kick off election campaigns amid focus on crime
Public security took center stage Sunday as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched their election campaigns, positioning themselves as the leading rivals ahead of the October presidential vote.
Lula, who leads most opinion polls, kicked off his campaign at the Vila Euclides stadium in São Bernardo do Campo, in São Paulo state, while Bolsonaro held his event in Rio de Janeiro, a political stronghold of his family.
During his speech, Lula announced plans to create a new Ministry of Public Security aimed at strengthening coordination between the federal government and Brazil’s states in the fight against crime.
The president pledged a tougher strategy to reclaim territories controlled or influenced by criminal groups. The proposed ministry would help “share responsibilities with the states” and confront those who seek to control favelas and impoverished neighborhoods, Lula told supporters.
The initiative places public security at the heart of Lula’s campaign as he seeks another term in office amid persistent concerns over crime and organized criminal activity in Brazil.
Lula also used his first campaign speech to reinforce his position as a leading figure of Brazil’s left and to criticize his political opponents on the right.
“I will not allow the right to take power,” Lula said, accusing his opponents of having previously mocked children who died because they lacked access to medicine.
“I don’t know what future these people imagine for the Brazilian people,” he added.
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