International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Trump Delays Potential Iran Strikes as Regional Peace Talks Continue

Donald Trump announced a new deadline for potential military action against Iran, saying he would temporarily delay planned strikes while regional negotiators continue efforts to secure a peace agreement.

Speaking at the White House, Trump said he decided to postpone the operation after receiving requests from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.

The U.S. president explained that the pause would remain in place for only a limited period, adding that discussions could continue through the end of the week or early next week.

Trump also warned that military action remained a possibility if negotiations fail to produce results, stressing that the United States could not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.

“Maybe we’ll have to hit them again,” Trump said, referring to Iran while reiterating his willingness to resume military operations if necessary.

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International

FAO Urges Urgent Action as Hormuz Disruption Threatens Global Food Supply

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a “systemic agri-food shock” capable of causing a major global food price crisis within six to twelve months, the Food and Agriculture Organization warned on Wednesday.

Before the recent attacks launched by United States and Israel against Iran, roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil shipments passed through the strategic waterway.

The UN agency said the disruption should not be viewed as a temporary shipping issue, but rather as the beginning of a broader global agro-food crisis with potential long-term economic consequences.

The FAO urged governments to establish alternative trade routes, avoid export restrictions, protect humanitarian supply chains and build reserves to absorb rising transportation costs.

Máximo Torero said countries must urgently strengthen their resilience and prepare for the potential impact of disruptions linked to the maritime bottleneck.

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According to the organization, the window for preventive action is rapidly closing.

International

U.S. Sanctions Alleged Sinaloa Cartel Money Launderers Linked to Fentanyl Trade

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on Wednesday against more than a dozen individuals and companies allegedly linked to Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, accusing them of laundering money connected to fentanyl trafficking operations.

Among those targeted are Armando Ojeda Avilés, identified by U.S. authorities as a leading money laundering operator for the cartel, and Jesús “Chuy” González Peñuela, who has been subject to a $5 million reward since January 2024.

According to the sanctions list released by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), other individuals sanctioned include Jesús Alonso Aispuro, described as the network’s financial chief, and Rodrigo Alarcón Palomares, accused of overseeing cash collection operations in the United States.

Relatives of the alleged cartel figures were also sanctioned for managing businesses reportedly tied to the network, including the security company Grupo Especial Mamba Negra and the restaurant Gorditas Chiwas in Chihuahua, Mexico.

The Sinaloa Cartel was designated a narcoterrorist organization last year under an order issued by U.S. President Donald Trump and has since become a major focus of U.S. law enforcement efforts.

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Two weeks ago, prosecutors in New York’s Southern District accused Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and several associates of collaborating with the cartel, a development that increased tensions with the administration of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.