International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Spain’s irregular migrant population rises to 840,000, study finds

The number of migrants living in Spain without legal residency status continues to rise and has reached 840,000 people, with 91% originating from the Americas, particularly Colombia, Peru and Honduras, according to a report by the Spanish think tank Funcas (Foundation of the Savings Banks).

An estimated 17.2% of the non-EU foreign population living in Spain is in an irregular administrative situation. The estimate is based on the gap between the number of foreign residents effectively living in Spain, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE), and those who hold a residence permit, benefit from international protection, or are in the process of obtaining it.

The data, as of January 1, 2025, point to a notable and sustained increase in irregular migration since 2017, when the estimated figure stood at around 107,000 people, representing 4.2% of the non-EU population residing in Spain.

By origin, migrants from the American continent stand out, totaling around 760,000 people, or 91% of all irregular migrants. Colombians account for nearly 290,000, followed by Peruvians with almost 110,000, and Hondurans with about 90,000. Migrants from Africa (50,000), Asia (15,000) and Europe (14,000) trail far behind.

The figures predate Spain’s latest immigration regulation reform, which came into force in May 2025 and introduces measures to ease access to legal status through residency ties. According to Funcas, the reform would, in principle, tend to reduce the number of migrants in an irregular situation.

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International

Historic snowstorm paralyzes Toronto after 60 centimeters of snow

Toronto, Canada’s largest city and the fourth most populous in North America, was largely paralyzed on Monday after a historic snowstorm dumped up to 60 centimeters of snow and sent temperatures plunging to -15 degrees Celsius, authorities said.

Late Sunday, as the scale of the snowfall became clear, city officials declared a climate emergency, triggering extraordinary measures including parking bans on several major streets to facilitate snow removal operations.

Toronto’s public transit authority reported that while some buses remain immobilized, subway and streetcar services are operating with relative normality, though localized disruptions may occur.

A similar situation is affecting the city’s commuter rail network, which remains operational but is experiencing significant delays on its main routes due to the severe weather conditions.

International

Venezuela frees at least 80 political prisoners, NGO says

At least 80 political prisoners were released on Sunday across Venezuela, human rights group Foro Penal reported, as the broader process of detainee releases continues at a slow pace under the interim government.

Foro Penal’s director, Alfredo Romero, wrote on social media platform X that verified releases took place nationwide and that the figure could rise as more confirmations are completed.

Attorney Gonzalo Himiob, also from Foro Penal, said the excarcelations occurred during the early hours of the day and emphasized that the number is not yet final pending further verification.

The releases are part of a series of steps announced by Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, who took power after the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation on Jan. 3, 2026. Rodríguez has pledged a significant number of liberations but has been criticized by opposition groups and rights organizations for the slow and nontransparent nature of the process.

So far, the Venezuelan government reports that 626 detainees have been freed since December, though independent counts by human rights groups suggest the number of actual political prisoner releases is lower and that many remain behind bars.

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Families of those still detained have maintained vigils outside prisons, hopeful for further releases even as broader concerns about political imprisonment and due process persist.