International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Bolivia Orders Three Investigations Into Deadly Military Plane Crash

Bolivia’s Defense Minister Marcelo Salinas announced Monday that three separate investigations will be conducted into Friday’s crash of a military cargo aircraft at El Alto International Airport, near La Paz, which left at least 22 people dead.

The Hercules aircraft, operated by the Fuerza Aérea Boliviana (FAB), was transporting cash intended for the Central Bank of Bolivia when it overshot the runway after landing from the city of Santa Cruz. The plane reportedly traveled nearly one kilometer beyond the airport perimeter.

The incident sparked chaotic scenes, with individuals attempting to collect scattered banknotes. Authorities detained 51 people in the aftermath, and the government declared three days of national mourning.

Multiple Investigations Underway

The first inquiry is being led by a military board from the Bolivian Air Force, which has already taken custody of the aircraft’s black box for analysis.

Minister Salinas said two additional investigations will follow — one conducted by the insurance company and another by the aircraft’s manufacturer.

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“At least two more investigations will come, that of the insurance company and that of the aircraft manufacturer,” Salinas said during a press conference in Santa Cruz.

He cautioned that the investigative process could take between three and six months, noting that the black box cannot be opened in Bolivia due to the lack of specialized laboratories for analysis.

Awaiting Official Findings

Salinas stressed that the FAB investigative board is the highest authority in the case and urged the public to wait for its conclusions to avoid speculation about the causes of the crash.

He also confirmed that the government has contacted the families of the 22 victims and the 37 injured, as well as the owners of 15 damaged vehicles, to coordinate procedures with the insurer and cover the corresponding expenses.

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International

Mexico Calls for Immediate Probe After National Dies in ICE Custody

Mexico’s Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE) on Monday called on U.S. authorities to conduct an “immediate and thorough” investigation into the death of a Mexican national while in custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) at a processing facility in California.

In a statement, the Mexican government described the death as “regrettable” and urged U.S. officials to clarify the circumstances surrounding the case in order to “determine responsibilities and ensure that such events do not happen again.”

Death at Adelanto Processing Center

According to available information, the Mexican citizen died at the Adelanto Processing Center in California while under ICE custody. Authorities have not yet released the individual’s identity or the cause of death.

Following the incident, Mexico’s Foreign Ministry formally requested “detailed information” from U.S. authorities, including the detainee’s medical records and custody reports.

Consular Assistance Activated

The Mexican Consulate in San Bernardino, California, has activated consular assistance protocols to provide ongoing support to the deceased’s family. Officials have contacted relatives to express condolences and offer legal guidance, as well as assistance with the necessary procedures to repatriate the remains.

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“The handling of situations like this and the establishment of mechanisms to resolve them are priorities for the Government of Mexico,” the Foreign Ministry said, adding that it will formally request an investigation into any systemic conditions that may have contributed to such incidents.

Local Mexican media reported that seven Mexican nationals died while in ICE detention last year — the highest number recorded since the agency was created.

International

Anti-ICE Billboard Campaign Targets Immigration Spending in 31 U.S. Cities

More than 200 billboards criticizing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) began appearing Monday in 31 cities across the United States, including Miami, as part of a campaign highlighting the high cost of immigration enforcement operations for taxpayers.

The initiative, titled “ICE Costs Us,” was launched by the civil rights organization Mijente and will run for four weeks.

Criticism of Spending and Enforcement Tactics

The billboards feature images of ICE agents during arrests or carrying military-style weapons. According to the organization, spending on military-grade equipment for the agency has increased by 600 percent in recent years.

Several signs display messages such as:
“Your taxes are being wasted” and “ICE’s cruelty costs you $28 billion,” referring to the agency’s annual budget.

In a statement, Marisa Franco, co-founder of the Mijente Support Committee, said:
“For too long, our government has prioritized building cages and investing billions in an immigration enforcement apparatus that has left families torn apart and communities terrified.”

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She added that “Millions of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, yet this violent agency continues operating with a blank check. These decisions do not make us safer nor improve our economic security. Our billboards highlight these choices and demand a different path.”

Budget Debate and Medicaid Comparison

The campaign also draws a comparison between ICE’s funding and the estimated 17 million people who could lose health coverage under Medicaid due to federal budget cuts under President Donald Trump.

Other billboard messages seen in various cities include:
“They get billions to beat us; we get layoffs and rising rents” and “Funding ICE is a fast track to fascism.”

Organizers say the goal is to spark public debate about the allocation of federal funds for immigration enforcement and the broader economic and social impact of such policies on communities nationwide.