International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Iran Reports 201 Dead, 747 Injured After U.S. and Israeli Strikes

The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported Sunday night (local time) that at least 201 people were killed and 747 injured following attacks carried out by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic.

A spokesperson for the humanitarian organization said more than 220 rescue teams have been deployed across affected areas and that relief operations are continuing without interruption. The official highlighted the difficulty of treating the large number of wounded and the urgent need for additional resources in impacted provinces.

Out of Iran’s 31 provinces, 24 have reported damage, according to a statement carried by the Isna news agency. This marks the first overall casualty toll released by Iranian state-affiliated media since the launch of the offensive.

Among the dead are 85 schoolgirls from a school in the southern city of Minab, according to the country’s judiciary. “The number of martyrs at the Minab girls’ school has risen to 85,” the local prosecutor’s office said, as quoted by the judiciary’s website, Mizan Online.

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian described the attack as a “savagery” that “constitutes a new black page in the record of countless crimes committed by the aggressors.”

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

Meanwhile, the international community continues to monitor the situation closely amid concerns about possible further reprisals and the broader impact on Middle East stability, energy markets, and global security.

AFP noted that it was unable to independently verify the casualty figures or the circumstances surrounding the events.

International

Pope Leo XIV Urges End to ‘Spiral of Violence’ in Middle East

Pope Leo XIV on Sunday called for an end to the “spiral of violence” in the Middle East, following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran and subsequent retaliatory bombardments in the region.

“Faced with the possibility of a tragedy of enormous proportions, I urge the parties involved to assume their moral responsibility and stop the spiral of violence before it becomes an irreparable abyss,” the pontiff told the crowd gathered in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican.

Speaking during the Angelus prayer, the U.S.-born pope said stability and peace cannot be achieved through threats or weapons. “Stability and peace are not built with reciprocal threats or with arms that sow destruction, suffering and death, but only through reasonable, sincere and responsible dialogue,” he declared.

The leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics also called for diplomacy to “regain its role” amid escalating tensions.

In addition, the pope urged Afghanistan and Pakistan to urgently resume dialogue after several days of clashes between the two countries.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

International

Security Council to Hold Emergency Meeting on Middle East Crisis

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Saturday condemned the “military escalation in the Middle East” following attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, just hours before an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.

“I call for the immediate cessation of hostilities and de-escalation,” Guterres said in a statement.

The Security Council is scheduled to meet on Saturday at 21:00 GMT (4:00 p.m. in New York) to address “the situation in the Middle East,” the United Nations announced.

The meeting, during which Guterres will deliver remarks, was convened at the request of France, Bahrain, Colombia, Russia and China, according to a diplomatic source.