International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Venezuela Debates Broad Amnesty Law Covering 27 Years of Chavismo

Venezuela’s Parliament began debating on Thursday a sweeping amnesty bill that would cover the 27 years of Chavismo in power, while explicitly excluding serious human rights violations and crimes against humanity.

The proposed legislation, titled the “Amnesty Law for Democratic Coexistence,” was introduced by interim President Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed power following the capture of Nicolás Maduro during a U.S. military operation.

The legislative session was convened for Thursday afternoon, with lawmakers holding an initial discussion focused on the general principles of the bill. This phase precedes a consultation process with civil society, after which the proposal will move to a final debate examining each article individually.

According to a draft of the bill obtained by AFP, the amnesty would apply to individuals accused of crimes such as “treason,” “terrorism,” and “incitement to hatred,” charges that were frequently brought against political prisoners over the past decades. The scope also includes offenses ranging from acts of rebellion to punishments imposed for social media posts or messages sent through private messaging services.

The bill’s explanatory text emphasizes reconciliation, stating that it seeks to move away from “vengeance, retaliation, and hatred” in favor of “opening a path toward reconciliation.”

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However, the proposal explicitly excludes from its benefits crimes such as “serious human rights violations, crimes against humanity, war crimes, intentional homicide, corruption, and drug trafficking.”

These exclusions, the text notes, are based on strict compliance with the Venezuelan Constitution, which already prohibits granting amnesties or pardons for such offenses.

International

Díaz-Canel Calls for Talks With Washington Without Pressure as U.S. Tightens Oil Sanctions

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said on Thursday that his government is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States, provided that talks take place on equal terms and without pressure.

“Cuba is prepared to hold a dialogue with the United States on any issue that either side wishes to discuss,” Díaz-Canel said during a press conference broadcast nationwide on radio and television.

He stressed, however, that such dialogue would only be possible “without pressure, without preconditions, on the basis of equality, and with full respect for our sovereignty, independence, and self-determination.” The Cuban leader added that discussions should avoid issues that could be interpreted as interference in the country’s internal affairs.

Díaz-Canel’s remarks come at a time when Cuba is facing growing pressure from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which has implemented a series of measures that have restricted the island’s access to fuel needed to generate electricity.

Washington has sought to prevent Cuba from receiving oil from Venezuela, its main ally for more than two decades, and has stepped up pressure to reduce crude shipments from Mexico. In addition, Trump signed an executive order in late January allowing the United States to impose tariffs on countries that sell oil to Cuba.

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In that order, the U.S. president declared that Cuba represents an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and foreign policy, accusing the island of aligning itself with hostile countries and actors.

International

HRW Warns Trump’s Influence Has Weakened Human Rights in Latin America

Human Rights Watch (HRW) warned that the political influence and rhetoric of U.S. President Donald Trump have contributed to a deterioration of human rights conditions across Latin America and the Caribbean. In its World Report 2026, the organization stated that several governments in the region have committed abuses against migrants and citizens, or have used U.S. policies as justification to impose harsher repressive measures.

During the first year of Trump’s new term, HRW observed that multiple countries violated the rights of foreign nationals under direct pressure from Washington. Other governments deepened security strategies based on militarization, mass detentions and excessive use of force, according to the report.

“The impact of the Trump administration has undoubtedly been negative in Latin America and the Caribbean,” said Juanita Goebertus, HRW’s Americas director. However, she emphasized that “governments in the region remain responsible for defending democracy and fundamental rights, regardless of who is in power in Washington.”

HRW also reported that the United States significantly reduced cooperation funding for human rights organizations and independent media. At the same time, countries such as El Salvador, Peru and Ecuador passed laws allowing the arbitrary closure of civil society organizations and media outlets, weakening democratic systems and institutional checks and balances.

The organization further criticized what it described as a “double standard” in U.S. foreign policy, which condemns human rights violations in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua while overlooking serious abuses committed by allies such as El Salvador, Peru and Ecuador. The report also included criticism of the U.S. military attack against Venezuela in early 2026, warning that it could strengthen Nicolás Maduro’s regime and respond primarily to U.S. political and commercial interests.