International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Five Bodies Found in Ecuador as Police Probe Suspected Gang Turf War

Ecuadorian authorities are investigating the deaths of five people whose bodies were found inside a rural home, in what police believe may be linked to a territorial dispute between organized criminal groups.

The victims, aged between 21 and 30, were discovered Tuesday in the town of La Troncal, in the Andean province of Cañar. Police reported that two of the bodies were bound with wire, while a burned-out vehicle was found outside the residence.

Investigators said graffiti on the walls of the house included messages such as “Lobos territory” and “Lobos active,” suggesting a possible connection to the criminal organization known as Los Lobos.

Police believe the killings were likely the result of a conflict over territorial control between rival gangs.

The discovery came on the same day authorities arrested a former mayor in the neighboring province of Azuay. Officials identified him as the alleged main financial backer of Los Lobos, one of Ecuador’s most powerful criminal organizations.

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Ecuador has experienced an unprecedented surge in violence in recent years, driven by criminal groups involved in drug trafficking, illegal mining, kidnapping, and extortion.
According to Insight Crime, the country recorded 51 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025—equivalent to roughly one killing every hour—making it one of the most violent countries in Latin America.

International

Georgia Teen Sentenced to Life Without Parole for Deadly School Shooting

A Georgia teenager who killed four people in a 2024 school shooting was sentenced Tuesday to life in prison without the possibility of parole after pleading guilty to the attack.

Colt Gray, now 16, admitted to opening fire at Apalachee High School in Winder, about 70 kilometers (45 miles) northeast of Atlanta. He was 14 years old at the time of the shooting.

The attack claimed the lives of two students and two teachers, while nine other people were injured. Despite being a minor when the shooting occurred, Gray was prosecuted as an adult.

During the sentencing hearing, Judge Nicholas Trimm acknowledged the failures of the teenager’s family but said they did not excuse his actions.

“Your parents failed you. Your family failed you. But that does not absolve you,” the judge said.

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Trimm also rejected any suggestion that the shooting was motivated by bullying or personal grievances.

“You were not bullied at Apalachee. This was not driven by hate. You didn’t know anyone at that school. It was simply the desire to commit a notorious act,” he told Gray.

The case also led to the prosecution of the shooter’s father, Colin Gray, who was convicted in March of voluntary manslaughter and involuntary manslaughter. The case marked one of the first instances in which a parent was held criminally responsible for a mass shooting carried out by their child.

Prosecutors said Colin Gray had given his son an AR-15-style rifle as a Christmas gift in 2023, despite being aware that the teenager had previously threatened to carry out a school shooting.

Authorities said the same rifle was used in the attack less than a year later. Months before the shooting, FBI investigators had alerted local law enforcement after receiving reports of online messages linked to the Gray family’s internet address that referenced plans for a school massacre.

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The case reflects growing legal scrutiny in the United States over the responsibility of parents whose children commit acts of gun violence.

In a similar case, the parents of a Michigan teenager who killed four people at his high school in 2021 were convicted of involuntary manslaughter in 2024 and sentenced to prison terms ranging from 10 to 15 years.
According to U.S. health authorities, firearms have been the leading cause of death among children and teenagers in the United States for several years.

International

Portuguese Authorities Seize 2.6 Tons of Cocaine Worth More Than $550 Million in Drug Bust

Italian financial police reported Monday that Portuguese authorities intercepted a speedboat carrying more than 2.6 tons of cocaine, with an estimated street value exceeding $550 million.

Four people — two Spanish nationals, one Albanian citizen, and a man from Gibraltar — were arrested in connection with the operation, according to Italian authorities.

The vessel was intercepted off the coast of Lisbon by Portugal’s maritime police following an investigation led by Italian authorities.

Italian financial police estimated that the seized shipment had a street value of approximately 500 million euros ($570 million), making it one of the largest drug seizures reported in the region in recent years.

Portuguese authorities said the interception took place on Thursday, about 90 kilometers (50 nautical miles) southwest of Cape Espichel, during an operation targeting international drug trafficking routes.