International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Japan reopens Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Plant despite public concerns

La centrale nucléaire japonaise de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, la plus grande au monde, a repris ses activités mercredi pour la première fois depuis la catastrophe de Fukushima en 2011, malgré les inquiétudes persistantes d’une partie de la population.

La remise en service a eu lieu à 19h02 heure locale (10h02 GMT), a indiqué à l’AFP Tatsuya Matoba, porte-parole de la compagnie Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco).

Le gouverneur de la préfecture de Niigata, où se situe la centrale, avait donné son feu vert à la reprise le mois dernier, en dépit d’une opinion publique divisée. Selon une enquête menée en septembre par la préfecture elle-même, 60 % des habitants se déclaraient opposés au redémarrage, contre 37 % favorables.

Mardi, plusieurs dizaines de manifestants ont bravé le froid et la neige pour protester près de l’entrée du site, sur les rives de la mer du Japon.

« L’électricité de Tokyo est produite à Kashiwazaki. Pourquoi seuls les habitants d’ici devraient-ils être exposés au danger ? Cela n’a aucun sens », a déclaré à l’AFP Yumiko Abe, une riveraine de 73 ans.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

La centrale de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa avait été mise à l’arrêt lorsque le Japon a fermé l’ensemble de ses réacteurs nucléaires à la suite du triple désastre de mars 2011 — un séisme, un tsunami et un accident nucléaire — survenu à Fukushima.

International

Markets rise as Trump halts Europe tariffs and floats Greenland agreement framework

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday lifted his threat to impose new tariffs on several European countries and said he had outlined the framework of a future agreement on Greenland during a meeting in Davos with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“Based on this understanding, I will not impose the tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on February 1,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, without providing details about the proposed “framework.”

The announcement boosted financial markets. Wall Street, which had been trading slightly higher, extended its gains following Trump’s message, while the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro.

Trump has repeatedly insisted that Greenland, rich in mineral resources, is ‘vital’ to the security of the United States and NATO, particularly as Arctic ice melts and global powers compete for strategic advantage in the region amid rising tensions with China and Russia.

Last week, the U.S. president threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on eight European countries for supporting Denmark and sending a military exploratory mission to Greenland. All of the targeted countries are NATO members, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, Europe’s largest economies.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

Trump said on Wednesday that additional discussions are underway regarding the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, specifically in connection with Greenland.

He assigned Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations.

Hours before his post, Trump ruled out the use of force to seize Greenland for the first time, but demanded “immediate negotiations” for its acquisition, reiterating his view that only the United States can guarantee the security of the Arctic island.

International

Venezuela’s interim president predicts 37% increase in revenues for 2026

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, said Wednesday that the country’s revenues are expected to increase by about 37% in 2026, in a statement made during a session of the Federal Government Council at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas.

Rodríguez said the projected rise in foreign currency income comes as agreements on Venezuelan oil sales with the United States are being implemented, including deals in which Washington will trade Venezuelan crude and manage the proceeds before transferring funds to Caracas.

“This year, revenues expressed in foreign currency will increase by 37%,” Rodríguez declared, according to EFE. She noted that the increase will also benefit regional governments and local authorities. “You will have more resources for your management, which I know you need,” she added.

Rodríguez said the distribution formula for revenues will remain the same as in 2025: 53% for communes, 29% for state governments, 15% for municipalities, and 3% for institutional strengthening. She also said the government would intervene to “correct imbalances” in how funds are allocated, particularly among some municipal and regional authorities.

The announcement follows reporting that Venezuela received at least $300 million from oil revenues tied to a U.S.–Venezuela deal that could involve up to 50 million barrels of crude. Washington officials have said the interim government met U.S. requirements under the agreement.