International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Mexican TikTok Influencer Shot Dead While Livestreaming in Sinaloa
A Mexican influencer was shot dead Tuesday night while livestreaming on social media outside a restaurant in the violence-plagued state of Sinaloa, in northwestern Mexico.
César Gastelum, who had more than 500,000 followers on TikTok, was broadcasting live with two friends while taking part in a challenge in which they dressed as food delivery workers. During the livestream, a motorcycle carrying two individuals stopped beside them, and the driver shot Gastelum in the head.
The broadcast was interrupted immediately after the attack and was later removed by the platform. However, several news outlets preserved parts of the footage and shared images of the incident.
Initial reports from local police indicated that a delivery worker had been killed. However, after reviewing the recording and gathering witness statements, authorities identified the victim as Gastelum, who was approximately 25 years old, according to local media reports. The influencer was known for sharing lifestyle-related content.
The attack took place in a busy shopping area near the Sinaloa Attorney General’s Office in Culiacán, the state capital. Military and police forces were deployed to the scene, while forensic experts collected evidence and removed the victim’s body, according to local television reports.
Sinaloa has been experiencing a wave of violence for the past two years due to internal disputes within the powerful local drug cartel.
Local media have reported that around a dozen influencers, some allegedly linked to criminal groups, have been killed in recent years in the state.
International
Iran Rejects Negotiations With U.S. as Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked Amid New Attack
Tensions remained high in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after a vessel was hit by a projectile, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that negotiations with Iran were moving forward and that the strategic maritime route could reopen as early as Tuesday.
Tehran denied that direct talks were taking place, but Trump insisted that discussions were underway and described the situation as a final opportunity for Iran to reach an agreement.
“This is the last chance they have to sign a good document,” Trump told reporters at the White House, adding that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could happen “literally tomorrow” Tuesday.
The comments came after another escalation in rhetoric from Washington. Last week, Trump threatened Iran with military strikes before unexpectedly changing course on Sunday and announcing that negotiations with Tehran would resume.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai rejected the U.S. president’s version of events, stating that Tehran was not holding negotiations with Washington.
“At this moment, we are not negotiating with the United States. We are negotiating with Oman to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” Baqai said.
Earlier, the Iranian official said that Tehran was close to reaching an agreement with Oman, which lies across the Strait of Hormuz, to reopen the crucial waterway that plays a key role in global energy trade.
The maritime route has remained blocked by Iran since the outbreak of hostilities following U.S. and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic on February 28.
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced Tuesday that they had launched an attack against an airport in Saudi Arabia. The Iran-backed group had previously disrupted the passage of Saudi vessels through the Red Sea, an alternative route used for crude exports by the world’s largest oil producer.
The continued instability in the region has raised concerns over global energy supplies, as the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important chokepoints for international oil shipments.
International
Lula Launches Re-Election Campaign Amid Rising Tensions With Trump
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set to be officially nominated for re-election by his Workers’ Party (PT), marking the start of his campaign for a fourth presidential term.
The nomination takes place during the party’s national convention in São Paulo, Brazil’s economic hub, where around 3,000 supporters gathered to back the veteran leftist leader.
“Today I’m here because Lula’s policies changed my life and my family’s. Thanks to him, we finally own a home after eight generations without one,” said Cristiane Rosa Julho, a 51-year-old social worker attending the event dressed in the PT’s signature red.
Seeking the presidency for the seventh time in his political career, Lula is expected to face Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in next year’s election.
The 45-year-old senator is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been jailed over his alleged role in an attempted coup following his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election.
The party convention opened with videos highlighting Lula’s social initiatives and speeches by four women praising his leadership, while supporters waved PT flags and held signs reading “We Want Lula as President” and “Brazil Is Not for Sale.”
The campaign begins amid growing tensions with the United States and President Donald Trump, a close ally of the Bolsonaro family who has openly backed several conservative candidates across Latin America.
Last week, Lula warned against foreign interference, declaring, “In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it doesn’t belong.”
In July, the United States imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products, accusing the country of unfair trade practices. The measures followed earlier restrictions introduced in 2025, encouraged by Jair Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo Bolsonaro, in response to legal proceedings against the former president.
Lula has vowed to wage what he called a “war of truth against lies” in response to Washington’s pressure and accused Flávio Bolsonaro of undermining Brazil’s interests by allegedly helping the United States damage the country’s economy. The senator has denied the accusations.
The Brazilian president also claims Washington is attempting to influence the country’s political landscape in an effort to prevent his re-election.
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