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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

Three Die During World Cup Celebrations in Mexico City After Mexico’s Victory

Three people died in Mexico City while celebrating Mexico’s 2-0 victory over Ecuador at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, local authorities confirmed on Wednesday.

According to the city’s Health Secretariat, the victims—a 44-year-old man, a 48-year-old woman, and a 19-year-old woman—died from asphyxiation following the post-match celebrations.

Emergency services were dispatched to the Juárez district after reports that three people had lost consciousness shortly after Tuesday night’s match.

Paramedics, firefighters, and police officers responded to the scene, where the victims received first aid and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) before being transported to a hospital for specialized medical care. Despite the efforts of medical personnel, all three were later pronounced dead.

“We are in contact with their families to provide all the support they need,” Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada Molinasaid in a statement posted on social media.

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“With my hand on my heart, I extend my deepest condolences to their loved ones. We once again call on everyone to celebrate with responsibility, care, and empathy,” she added.

Mexico’s victory over Ecuador sparked massive celebrations at the Estadio Azteca and across the capital. Goals from Raúl Jiménez and Julián Quiñones secured the hosts’ place in the Round of 16, where they are set to face either England or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, who meet on Wednesday in Atlanta.

Should Mexico advance to the quarterfinals, the team would face either Brazil, coached by Carlo Ancelotti, or Norway.

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International

Families Sue Nicolás Maduro in U.S. Over Alleged Extrajudicial Killings

The families of five young Venezuelan men have filed a 44-page civil lawsuit in a U.S. federal court, accusing former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of ordering extrajudicial executions carried out by the country’s former Special Action Forces (FAES) between 2017 and 2020.

The lawsuit, filed Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York in Brooklyn, alleges that the victims were among thousands of people killed under Maduro’s administration by security units, including the FAES, which were dissolved in 2021 following widespread allegations of human rights abuses, including criticism from the United Nations.

Maduro is currently being held in a New York detention facility awaiting trial on U.S. drug trafficking charges after he was removed from power during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela in January.

The complaint argues that the killings followed a well-documented pattern of extrajudicial executions allegedly carried out during Maduro’s presidency, which lasted from 2013 to 2026. Throughout his time in office, Maduro faced repeated accusations from international organizations of using state repression to maintain power.

According to the lawsuit, FAES officers arrived at the victims’ neighborhoods before dawn, dressed entirely in black and wearing face coverings. The agents allegedly separated the men from their families before fatally shooting them.

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The complaint further alleges that authorities later fabricated official reports claiming the victims had “resisted arrest” in an effort to justify the killings.

“Maduro used the FAES as a political instrument and a mechanism of social control to violently suppress dissent, terrorize low-income communities, and eliminate political opposition,” the lawsuit states.

It also describes the FAES as being “widely regarded as a death squad or extermination group.”

The plaintiffs argue that Venezuela’s judicial system has failed to provide accountability for the killings, preventing the victims’ families from obtaining justice.

For security reasons, the identities of the families remain confidential. They are seeking financial compensation from Maduro under the U.S. Torture Victim Protection Act.

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According to The New York Times, Maduro is expected to argue that he is entitled to head-of-state immunity in the civil proceedings.

In the separate criminal case pending against him in the United States, in which he is charged alongside his wife, Cilia Flores, Maduro has described himself as a “prisoner of war.”

He has pleaded not guilty to multiple charges, including conspiracy to import cocaine into the United States and weapons-related offenses.

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International

Salvadoran National Arrested in New Jersey with Over 70 Machine Gun Conversion Devices

The U.S. Department of Justice announced the arrest of 21-year-old Salvadoran national Erick Márquez Cruz after authorities allegedly discovered more than 70 machine gun conversion devices and other firearm-related components during a search of his residence in North Bergen, New Jersey.

According to the Justice Department, law enforcement officers executed a search warrant on June 25 at Cruz’s home, where they recovered a 3D printer that was allegedly being used to manufacture firearm components. Investigators also seized 17 3D-printed firearm frames, magazines, and more than 70 machine gun conversion devices (MCDs).

Federal authorities explained that the conversion devices, which are classified as machine guns under U.S. law, are designed to convert semiautomatic firearms into fully automatic weapons capable of firing multiple rounds with a single pull of the trigger.

Cruz has been charged with unlawful possession of a machine gun. If convicted, he faces a maximum sentence of 10 years in federal prison and a fine of up to $250,000, or twice the gross financial gain resulting from the offense, whichever is greater.

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