International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Mexico leads global cases of enforced disappearances, UN report finds

Mexico accounts for the highest number of urgent actions related to enforced disappearances worldwide, according to the latest report by the UN Committee on Enforced Disappearances.

The report, released by I(dh)eas, indicates that Mexico has accumulated 819 cases between 2012 and February 2026, representing 38% of the global total.

In the past five months alone, 40 new urgent requests have been recorded — more than one-third of all such actions worldwide during that period.

The report warns that this trend reflects a structural problem, as the urgent action mechanism — originally intended as an exceptional measure — has become routine in Mexico.

Although the Mexican state formally complies with response deadlines, the Committee identified significant shortcomings in the implementation of these measures. These include the lack of comprehensive search plans, delays in key investigative procedures such as video surveillance and phone data analysis, and insufficient inquiries into possible links involving state agents.

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The report also highlights inadequate protection for relatives and individuals involved in search efforts, including cases of reprisals.

Among the most serious incidents documented is the disappearance of a father who had denounced alleged involvement of authorities in his son’s case in the state of Guanajuato.

The accumulation of cases could lead to the application of Article 34 of the Convention, which would allow for the launch of an international investigation into systematic enforced disappearances.

Geographically, the state of Chiapas accounts for 30% of the new urgent actions, many of them linked to collective disappearances of migrants.

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International

Le pape Léon XIV appelle à relancer le dialogue pour une paix au Moyen-Orient

Le pape Léon XIV s’est entretenu par téléphone ce vendredi avec le président d’Israël, Isaac Herzog, soulignant la « nécessité de rouvrir » les canaux de dialogue afin de parvenir à une « paix juste » au Moyen-Orient.

Selon un communiqué du Vatican, les deux dirigeants ont insisté sur l’importance de relancer tous les mécanismes diplomatiques pour mettre fin au conflit en cours et œuvrer en faveur d’une paix durable dans la région.

Le communiqué précise également que les discussions ont porté sur la protection des populations civiles et sur le respect du droit international et humanitaire.

Cet échange intervient dans le contexte de la Semaine sainte, cinq jours après un incident à Jérusalem, où la police israélienne avait empêché le cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa de célébrer la messe du Dimanche des Rameaux au Saint-Sépulcre.

Le lendemain, le secrétaire d’État du Vatican, Pietro Parolin, avait convoqué l’ambassadeur israélien auprès du Saint-Siège, Yaron Sideman, pour exprimer le mécontentement du Vatican face à cet incident qualifié de « regrettable ».

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Cette situation avait suscité une vive réaction internationale, poussant le Premier ministre israélien Benjamin Netanyahu à intervenir pour assurer que le cardinal pourrait accéder au lieu saint.

De son côté, Herzog a confirmé l’échange sur son compte X, indiquant que les discussions ont également porté sur des sujets régionaux, notamment la guerre en Iran et la situation au Liban.

Le pape, d’origine américaine, participe actuellement à sa première Semaine sainte depuis son élection et doit présider ce soir le chemin de croix au Vatican.

International

Devotees in Philippines mark Holy Week with extreme rituals despite rising costs

Despite rising fuel prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East, thousands of devotees in Philippines took part this year in one of the country’s most intense Holy Week traditions.

In the city of San Fernando, located in Pampanga province, dozens of bare-chested penitents with covered faces walked barefoot along dusty streets, whipping their backs with bamboo lashes as part of a ritual that can draw up to 12,000 local and foreign visitors.

Journalists from Agence France-Presse reported seeing participants piercing their skin with glass shards attached to small wooden paddles to ensure bleeding during the ceremony — an act believed to atone for sins and seek divine intervention.

“I do this to pray for the healing of my seven-month-old baby, who is suffering from pneumonia,” said a devotee identified as John David at the start of the procession.

The 49-year-old participant explained that the practice runs in his family. “My grandfather started this, then my father, and now it’s my turn. I have witnessed healing miracles over the years through this act of faith,” he said.

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Many attendees traveled for hours to witness the climax of the ritual, in which some penitents allow nails, measuring about seven centimeters, to be driven into their hands before being raised on crosses in a reenactment of crucifixion.