International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Sheinbaum highlights anti-drug gains after U.S. says challenges remain
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Friday highlighted her government’s achievements in the fight against drug trafficking, after the United States said challenges remain in combating organized crime.
On Thursday, Mexican Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente held talks with his U.S. counterpart, Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Following the meeting, the U.S. State Department said in a statement that “despite progress, challenges still exist” in addressing organized crime.
“There are very strong results from joint cooperation and from the work Mexico is doing: first, a 50% reduction in fentanyl seizures at the U.S. border,” Sheinbaum said during her regular morning press conference.
The president also said that authorities have seized nearly 320 tons of drugs and that there has been a “40% decrease in intentional homicides in Mexico” since the start of her administration on October 1, 2024.
Sheinbaum added that the United States should implement campaigns to reduce drug consumption within its territory and curb the flow of weapons into Mexico.
“There are many results and there will be more, but there must be mutual respect and shared responsibility, as well as respect for our sovereignties,” she said.
On Monday, Sheinbaum held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss security issues. She said she once again ruled out the presence of U.S. troops in Mexico to fight drug cartels.
Security has been a recurring issue used by Trump to threaten tariffs on Mexico and to pressure negotiations over the USMCA (T-MEC) free trade agreement, which are scheduled for 2026.
The agreement is crucial for Mexico’s economy, as about 80% of the country’s exports are destined for the United States.
International
Canada accuses Iran of killing its citizen during anti-government unrest
A Canadian citizen has died “at the hands of Iranian authorities,” the Canadian government said on Thursday, amid ongoing protests against the government in Tehran.
“I have just learned that a Canadian citizen has died in Iran at the hands of Iranian authorities,” Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Anita Anand, said, without providing further details. She added that Tehran’s response to what she described as “peaceful protests” has “led the regime to show a blatant disregard for human life.”
On Thursday, the United States imposed sanctions on Iranian security officials and individuals linked to the country’s banking networks, accusing them of orchestrating a violent crackdown on peaceful demonstrations and laundering billions of dollars in oil revenues. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the measures following what were described as the largest anti-government protests in the history of the Islamic Republic, although demonstrations have reportedly eased in recent days amid heavy repression and a near week-long internet shutdown.
“The United States stands firmly with the Iranian people in their pursuit of freedom and justice,” Bessent said in a statement, adding that the sanctions were imposed at the direction of President Donald Trump.
Those sanctioned include Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, whom Washington accused of coordinating the repression and the use of force against protesters.
International
Ukraine declares nationwide energy emergency amid russian attacks and extreme cold
The Ukrainian government on Wednesday declared a nationwide energy state of emergency amid continued Russian military attacks and extreme winter weather, with nighttime temperatures dropping as low as minus 18 degrees Celsius.
“The consequences of Russian attacks and worsening weather conditions are severe (…) Overall, a state of emergency will be declared for Ukraine’s energy sector,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a statement posted on social media following a meeting with senior officials.
Zelensky announced the creation of a “permanent coordination headquarters” to manage the crisis in the capital, Kyiv, and tasked former defence minister and current energy chief Denys Shmyhal with overseeing support efforts for affected individuals and communities, including addressing power outages, heating shortages and other “practical issues.”
“There are many problems that require urgent solutions,” the president said, noting that repair crews, energy companies, municipal services and the State Emergency Service are working “around the clock” to restore electricity supplies. Kyiv has been particularly affected after Russian strikes last Friday disabled key parts of the power grid, as daytime temperatures hover around minus 12 degrees Celsius and plunge to minus 18 at night.
Zelensky added that public authorities will “maximize efforts with partners to obtain the necessary equipment and additional support,” while the government will ensure “maximum deregulation of all processes” to speed up the connection of backup power equipment to the grid. He also confirmed that work is underway to significantly increase electricity imports into Ukraine.
The Ukrainian leader further instructed his Cabinet to review curfew regulations in light of the extreme cold, arguing that citizens must have the greatest possible access to assistance centers, while businesses should be given flexibility to plan their operations according to the state of the energy system.
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