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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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Central America

U.S. Authorities Accuse Guatemalan Nationals of Using False Information to Sponsor Migrant Minors

Senior officials from the U.S. Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday criminal charges against three Guatemalan citizens accused of using false information to sponsor migrant children who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without a parent or guardian.

According to an indictment filed in Ohio, Maritza Cahuec Coc allegedly submitted at least 12 sponsorship applications, several of which were filed under aliases or contained materially false statements intended to secure custody of the minors.

Under U.S. procedures, unaccompanied migrant children apprehended at the southern border are placed in the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services, which is responsible for their care until they can be released to a qualified sponsor, such as a parent or relative living in the United States.

Prosecutors allege that Cahuec Coc, who reportedly entered the United States illegally in 2018, received payments between late 2020 and 2023 for helping bring 12 migrant minors into the country. Authorities claim she submitted fraudulent documents and misleading information to obtain approval for the sponsorship requests.

The case was announced during a joint press conference led by Acting Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin. However, officials provided limited details about the investigation and instead focused much of their remarks on criticizing immigration policies implemented under the previous administration.

Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have frequently pointed to the increase in unaccompanied migrant children arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border during President Joe Biden’s term, arguing that the government failed to adequately oversee their care and placement.

During Thursday’s briefing, A. Tysen Duva, Assistant Attorney General for the Justice Department’s Criminal Division, alleged that Cahuec Coc used the identities of other individuals and falsely claimed family relationships in order to obtain custody of the children.

“Maritza submitted sponsorship applications using other people’s identities and falsely represented that the minors were the children of close relatives in order to secure their release,” Duva said.

The case remains under investigation, and federal authorities have not yet disclosed additional information regarding the other two Guatemalan nationals charged in connection with the alleged scheme.

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International

Iván Cepeda Open to Revising Colombia’s Peace Policy Ahead of Runoff Election

Colombian presidential candidate Iván Cepeda said Thursday that he is willing to introduce “necessary changes” to the peace policy implemented by President Gustavo Petro, a strategy he helped design and promote during the current administration.

The future of Petro’s controversial “Total Peace” initiative has become one of the central issues in Colombia’s presidential runoff election, scheduled for June 21, where Cepeda will face right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella.

De la Espriella, who narrowly won the first round of voting on May 31, has campaigned on a platform of tougher security measures and a stronger crackdown on drug trafficking and armed criminal groups.

Speaking to AFP in Bogotá, Cepeda acknowledged that adjustments to the peace strategy may be required after Petro’s efforts to negotiate with armed organizations failed to produce the expected results amid a surge in violence across the country.

“We are going to make the necessary changes, of course. We will conduct an assessment,” the 63-year-old senator said during the interview, held ten days before the decisive runoff vote.

Cepeda, a philosopher and longtime human rights advocate, explained that any modifications to the policy would emerge from a broad national dialogue involving political leaders, social organizations and other sectors of Colombian society. However, he did not provide specific details about the proposed changes.

President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” initiative sought to negotiate agreements with guerrilla movements, paramilitary groups and major criminal organizations, including the powerful Clan del Golfo cartel and the National Liberation Army (ELN).

The policy aimed to reduce violence through dialogue and negotiated settlements, but critics argue that it failed to significantly weaken armed groups or improve security conditions in several regions of the country.

As the runoff campaign enters its final stage, the future direction of Colombia’s security and peace policies remains one of the most closely watched issues in the election.

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International

U.S. Halts Military Action Against Iran Amid Diplomatic Breakthrough

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday the suspension of military strikes that had been scheduled against Iran later that evening, citing significant progress in negotiations aimed at ending the conflict that erupted in late February.

In a message posted on social media, Trump said the decision followed high-level discussions with Iranian representatives, which he claimed led to broad agreements on the key elements of a future peace deal.

According to the president, the “final points” of the proposed agreement have been approved in principle and outlined by the parties involved. Trump identified the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt as participants in the diplomatic process.

The U.S. leader also stated that the naval blockade imposed on Iran will remain in place while negotiations continue. He added that the date and location for the formal signing of the agreement will be announced in the coming days. No specific details regarding the content of the deal have been released so far.

The announcement marks a significant shift from comments made by Trump just hours earlier, when he warned of additional military strikes against Iranian territory and reiterated threats involving key oil infrastructure within the Islamic Republic.

The decision comes amid a renewed escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran. In recent days, both sides have exchanged military attacks while diplomatic efforts intensified to prevent a broader conflict in the Middle East.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard recently claimed responsibility for drone attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in several countries across the region. Iranian officials described the operations as retaliation for American strikes against Iranian targets.

Although Trump’s announcement has been viewed as a sign of de-escalation, questions remain regarding the viability of the proposed agreement and the long-term stability of the negotiations. International analysts warn that the situation remains fragile and that any new incident could quickly reignite hostilities between the two countries.

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