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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

Nicolás Maduro’s Son Calls U.S. Trial Against His Father and Cilia Flores “Unjust”

Venezuelan lawmaker Nicolás Maduro Guerra on Wednesday described as “unjust” the legal proceedings in the United States against his father, ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, following their capture in Caracas on January 3 by U.S. forces.

“Faced with the unjust trial taking place today, the people raised their voices with a single demand: We demand the immediate release of President Nicolás Maduro and the First Lady,” Maduro Guerra wrote on his Instagram account.

The lawmaker attended a rally in Caracas where supporters of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)gathered to show support for the former president, who faces charges in the United States including conspiracy to commit narco-terrorism and cocaine importation. Flores is accused of crimes related to drug trafficking and weapons possession.

The event was also attended by PSUV Vice President for Mobilizations and Events Nahum Fernández and Caracas Mayor Carmen Meléndez, according to photos shared by Maduro’s son.

The third hearing in the case against Maduro and Flores concluded Wednesday at a federal court in New York after lasting only about 18 minutes. During the hearing, the judge preliminarily set June 2027 as the expected start date for the trial.

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One of the main arguments from the defense will focus on immunity. Maduro’s lead attorney, Barry Pollack, who has also represented WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, said the defense plans to request immunity for both defendants, arguing that Maduro was serving as head of state and Flores as first lady at the time of their detention.

Both Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty during their first court appearance in New York on January 5.

Meanwhile, Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed power after Maduro’s capture, has not yet commented on Wednesday’s hearing in the United States.

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International

Mexico Files 20 Complaints in U.S. Over Deaths of 17 Citizens During ICE Operations

The Mexican government announced that it has filed 20 legal complaints across different jurisdictions in the United States seeking investigations into the deaths of 17 Mexican citizens who died since May 2025 during immigration enforcement operations or while in the custody of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Mexico’s Secretariat of Foreign Affairs (SRE) reported that the complaints were submitted on July 13 by Mexico’s ambassador to the United States, Roberto Lazzeri. Of the total, eight cases were filed with state prosecutors’ offices and 12 with county prosecutors’ offices in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas.

According to the Mexican government, the legal actions seek to clarify the circumstances surrounding each death and determine whether any immigration authorities may bear responsibility.

During meetings with representatives from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and ICE, Ambassador Lazzeri expressed Mexico’s concerns over conditions in immigration detention centers, including privately operated facilities, and requested thorough investigations into every case.

In addition to the complaints filed in the United States, Mexico’s Foreign Affairs Ministry sent a communication to United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, informing him of the deaths and requesting that the UN gather information, assess the situation under international human rights standards, and issue recommendations to prevent similar incidents.

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The SRE also stated that Mexico’s consular network continues to provide support to the families of the deceased citizens, including legal assistance, help with repatriation of remains, and other procedures requested by relatives.

The announcement comes after the death of Lorenzo Salgado Araújo, a Mexican citizen who died after being shot by ICE agents during an immigration operation in Texas. The case has gained additional attention after a federal judge in Houston ordered a halt to the deportation of José Trinidad Rojas Pliego, considered a key witness in the incident.

Mexican authorities reiterated that they will continue using all available legal and diplomatic mechanisms to monitor the investigations and defend the rights of Mexican citizens in U.S. territory.

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International

India Approves New Dengue Vaccine as Global Cases Continue to Rise

India has approved a new dengue vaccine as health authorities seek to strengthen prevention efforts against a mosquito-borne viral disease that affects millions of people worldwide every year.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), half of the global population is currently at risk of contracting dengue, which causes between 100 million and 400 million infections annually.

Since 2021, India has recorded more than one million dengue cases, including at least 1,500 deaths.

The virus can cause high fever, severe headaches, muscle pain, nausea, skin rashes and, in rare cases, internal bleeding and death.

The vaccine, authorized by India’s Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), was developed by Japanese pharmaceutical company Takeda. The Indian Health Ministry said the vaccine is recommended in two doses for people between 4 and 60 years old.

The treatment has already been approved by health authorities in around 40 countries worldwide.

Meanwhile, Indian pharmaceutical company Panacea Biotec has begun the final phase of clinical trials for a single-dose dengue vaccine, aiming to provide another prevention option against the disease.

Brazil recently announced the suspension of the use of another single-dose dengue vaccine developed in the country after two suspected deaths were reported.

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