International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
U.S. classifies CV and PCC as terrorist groups in major policy shift
The United States government announced on Thursday that it will add the Brazilian criminal organizations Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) to its list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO), a designation set to take effect on June 5, 2026.
The State Department justified the decision by stating that both groups are among the most powerful criminal organizations in Brazil and accused them of coordinating violent attacks against police officers, public officials, and civilians.
The designation comes just days after Brazilian senator and presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro directly asked U.S. President Donald Trump to classify these groups as “narco-terrorist” organizations during a visit to the White House.
Bolsonaro, who is running in Brazil’s upcoming presidential election in October, has made tougher action against organized crime and prison-based gangs a central part of his campaign platform.
He is part of a political dispute with current Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has opposed the U.S. classification, warning it could open the door to potential foreign military intervention in Brazilian territory.
The Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital emerged in Brazilian prisons during the 1970s and have since expanded their influence, now controlling extensive criminal activities including drug trafficking, extortion, smuggling, and other illicit operations.
According to security experts and Brazilian authorities, both organizations have tens of thousands of members and support networks spread across multiple states in the country.
The U.S. measure aims to increase financial and operational pressure on these groups by restricting funding sources, limiting international mobility, and expanding cooperation in security enforcement efforts.
International
U.S.–Iran pre-agreement aims to de-escalate tensions and secure key trade route
The United States confirmed on Thursday that its negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement with Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the current ceasefire, though the understanding still requires final approval from U.S. President Donald Trump.
U.S. government sources confirmed information first reported exclusively by Axios, stating that the deal now only awaits the president’s endorsement.
According to Axios, citing two senior U.S. officials, the draft agreement stipulates that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz—previously blocked by Iran in response to U.S. and Israeli military actions—would be “unrestricted.”
The agreement reportedly includes provisions under which Iran would not impose transit fees in the strategic waterway, a critical route for global oil shipments. In parallel, the United States would lift maritime restrictions on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports.
The memorandum of understanding also contains a commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons, a key red line for President Trump. However, discussions on limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment would be postponed to later negotiations.
These issues are expected to be addressed during a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, which has been in place since April.
In addition, the United States would consider easing sanctions on Iran and releasing frozen Iranian assets as part of the broader diplomatic framework.
Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have intensified over the past week with mediation from Pakistan, as both sides seek to formally end the conflict that began on February 28 involving the United States and Israel.
The White House has recently stated that a deal was “a matter of days away,” while Tehran has tempered expectations, suggesting that an agreement is not yet imminent.
International
Interpol Operation Leads to 8,700 Arrests and Massive Drug Seizures Across Latin America
Interpol and the Organization of American States (OAS) announced the arrest of more than 8,700 people and the seizure of over 3,300 firearms and 56 tons of illegal drugs across 20 countries in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean following a six-week multinational security operation.
According to a statement released by the OAS, the operation — known as Operation Orca XI — was carried out between October 15 and November 30, 2025, under the coordination of Interpol, with support from the OAS and funding from the European Union.
The operation resulted in 8,701 arrests linked to illegal firearm possession, drug trafficking, and other criminal activities. Authorities also confiscated nearly 200,000 rounds of ammunition, $256,025 in cash, and 210 vehicles connected to criminal operations.
Participating countries additionally reported the seizure of 6.9 tons of cocaine, 659,403 coca plants, 9.3 tons of coca paste, 38.5 tons of marijuana, two tons of methamphetamine, and 11 kilograms of ketamine.
In its statement, the OAS emphasized that illegal arms trafficking in the region is closely tied to other forms of organized crime, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, migrant smuggling, and cybercrime.
“Criminal organizations behind these crimes often use the same routes for multiple illicit goods,” the organization stated, adding that Operation Orca XI exposed the strong links between these criminal networks.
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