International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Oil prices surge again as Middle East tensions persist

Oil prices climbed again on Friday for a second consecutive session, as markets remained concerned about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East with no tangible diplomatic progress.

North Sea Brent crude for May delivery rose 4.22% to close at $112.57 per barrel.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) approached the $100 mark, settling at $99.64, up 5.46%.

The decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to delay by ten days his ultimatum for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz failed to reassure market participants.

“It means there will be ten additional days of disruptions in the Middle East for crude and refined product flows,” said Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates.

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“For prices to come down, a resolution to the conflict is necessary,” Lipow added. “And even in the event of a ceasefire, it is not certain that Iran would allow oil shipments to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”

International

Young Spanish Woman Receives Euthanasia After Legal Battle, Sparking Debate

A 25-year-old Spanish woman, Noelia Castillo, received euthanasia on Thursday following a prolonged legal dispute with her father.

She passed away at a care center in Sant Pere de Ribes, about 40 kilometers from Barcelona, where she had been living for some time, according to Spanish media reports.

In an interview broadcast a day earlier on Antena 3, Castillo expressed her exhaustion after enduring prolonged suffering. She indicated that her decision was influenced by a combination of personal circumstances and health-related challenges, including family conflicts and a condition of paraplegia following a previous incident that left her with lasting physical consequences.

Spain legalized euthanasia in 2021, becoming one of the few countries that allow patients under strict conditions to seek medical assistance to end their lives in order to avoid what the law defines as unbearable suffering.

The case has reignited debate in Spain over the ethical, legal, and family dimensions surrounding euthanasia, as well as the broader issue of support for individuals in vulnerable situations.

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International

Over 300 U.S. Troops Wounded Since Start of Iran Conflict, CENTCOM Says

More than 300 U.S. service members have been injured since the start of the conflict with Iran on February 28, the United States Central Command confirmed on Friday.

“Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, approximately 303 U.S. service members have been wounded. The vast majority of these injuries are minor, and 273 troops have already returned to duty,” said U.S. Navy Captain Tim Hawkins.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to AFP, indicated that 10 American troops remain seriously injured.

According to the latest figures, an additional 13 U.S. service members have been killed since the conflict began, including seven in the Gulf region and six in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Iran’s armed forces warned on Friday that hotels hosting U.S. troops in the region could be considered legitimate military targets.

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“When U.S. forces enter a hotel, from our perspective that hotel becomes American,” said armed forces spokesperson Abolfazl Shekarchi in remarks broadcast on state television.