International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Bill Gates Admits “Serious Mistake” Over Epstein Ties

Bill Gates acknowledged he made a “serious mistake” by associating with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, telling employees at his philanthropic organization that he regretted the relationship and its impact on the foundation’s work. He also admitted to having had affairs with two Russian women but denied any involvement in Epstein’s criminal activities.

The Microsoft co-founder is among several high-profile figures mentioned in documents from the so-called Epstein files released by the U.S. Department of Justice. The records reference personal associations, financial dealings and private communications involving Epstein’s network.

During a staff-wide meeting at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on Tuesday, a recording of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Gates said he regretted spending time with Epstein and arranging meetings between foundation executives and the financier.

“It was a big mistake to spend time with Epstein,” Gates told employees, adding that the association had harmed the foundation’s reputation.

In a draft email released by the Justice Department, Epstein claimed that Gates had engaged in extramarital relationships. The message alleged that their interactions ranged from assisting Gates in obtaining drugs to cope with personal matters to facilitating meetings with married women.

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Gates, 70, acknowledged during the internal meeting that he had two affairs but firmly denied any connection to Epstein’s crimes.

The revelations come amid renewed scrutiny over Epstein’s network of prominent contacts following the public release of investigative files.

International

Stephen Hawking Photo Appears in Newly Released Epstein Documents

A previously unseen image of renowned theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking has surfaced among documents recently released by the U.S. Department of Justice as part of its investigation into financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The photograph shows the British scientist, who died in 2018 at age 76, smiling while seated between two women wearing swimsuits in what appears to be a beach setting. In the image, Hawking appears to be holding a drink while reclining on a sun lounger.

The exact context of the photo — including the date and location — has not been officially confirmed. However, it is known that Hawking attended a scientific conference funded by Epstein in March 2006 in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where several academics participated in events and activities organized by the financier prior to his criminal charges.

No Allegations Against Hawking

Hawking’s appearance in the files does not imply involvement in illegal or inappropriate conduct, and there are no formal charges linking him to any criminal activity in connection with the Epstein case.

The physicist is mentioned in numerous documents, primarily in relation to his participation in academic events associated with Epstein’s efforts to build connections with prominent figures in the scientific community.

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The release of the files has prompted renewed public interest in the scope of Epstein’s network, though inclusion in the documents alone does not indicate wrongdoing.

International

Larry Summers Steps Down from Harvard Role Amid Epstein Controversy

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has resigned from his academic post at Harvard University due to his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, the university said Wednesday.

Summers, who led the U.S. Treasury Department under former President Bill Clinton and later served as president of Harvard in the early 2000s, appeared in Justice Department files related to Epstein as having maintained extensive exchanges with the late financier.

According to a university statement, “Harvard Kennedy School Dean Jeremy Weinstein has accepted the resignation of Professor Lawrence H. Summers from his role as co-director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government,” noting that the decision was connected to the Epstein case.

Meanwhile, Clinton is scheduled to testify Friday before a congressional committee regarding the Epstein matter. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to appear before the panel on Thursday.

The development marks another high-profile repercussion stemming from renewed scrutiny surrounding Epstein’s network of associations.