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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

Venezuela Earthquake Death Toll Rises to 3,535 as Search for Victims Continues

The death toll from the twin earthquakes that struck Venezuela on June 24 rose to 3,535 on Monday, while the number of injured remained at 16,740, according to a statement released by the Venezuelan government.

Authorities have not disclosed an official number of missing persons. However, the United Nations estimates that as many as 50,000 people could still be unaccounted for, although other projections suggest the figure may be closer to 10,000.

Search and recovery operations continue in the state of La Guaira, neighboring Caracas and the region hardest hit by the earthquakes, as emergency crews and volunteers work to recover victims and provide them with dignified burials.

On Sunday, authorities began burying unidentified victims.

More than 150 unidentified bodies were laid to rest at La Esperanza Cemetery in the municipality of Catia La Mar, according to journalists from AFP.

Rows of individual graves now stretch across a dry section of the cemetery, each marked by white stones outlining the burial plots.

Every grave bears a small bouquet of flowers at the base of a white cross, along with a plaque reading “Special Identification” and the date of death: June 24, 2026.

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International

WHO warns of increased disease outbreak risk in Venezuela amid low vaccination coverage

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned of an increased risk of disease outbreaks in Venezuela, including vaccine-preventable illnesses, due to low immunization coverage across the country.

“The vaccination coverage in Venezuela, particularly against measles and other diseases, was already low, so the risk of measles cases and other illnesses is currently high,” said Ciro Ugarte, director for emergencies at the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), the WHO’s regional office.

Speaking during a video conference with journalists, Ugarte said the risk is especially high in shelters, where overcrowding could significantly accelerate the transmission of infectious diseases.

He also highlighted water quality as an additional concern in the aftermath of the disaster, noting that safe drinking water is not guaranteed in the most affected areas.

“Unfortunately, supply is scarce, making it very difficult to assess conditions in all shelters. That is why evaluating the quality of water provided to the population, especially in large shelters, is a priority,” he said during a briefing in Geneva.

Ugarte suggested that targeted vaccination campaigns could be deployed against mosquito-borne and other vector-transmitted diseases, particularly in overcrowded shelters and in areas where people remain displaced.

According to PAHO, eight health facilities have been assessed so far, all of which require assistance, with three reporting structural damage.

He also stressed that the José María Vargas Hospital, one of Caracas’s major public reference hospitals, requires urgent support due to critical conditions. The facility is currently treating 96 patients in an eight-bed unit, while its blood bank is operating at extremely low levels.

In La Guaira, the Rafael Medina Jiménez Hospital has reduced its capacity from 108 to 35 beds. Additionally, 22 other health centers have reported severe shortages, underscoring the strain on Venezuela’s healthcare system.

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International

María Corina Machado’s attempted return to Venezuela reportedly halted amid US political concerns

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly pressured Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado and disrupted her planned return to Venezuela following recent earthquakes, amid concerns over a potential political crisis, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Sources familiar with the matter told the newspaper that a private jet carrying Machado from the United States to Curaçao was ordered to turn back last week after U.S. officials concluded she intended to continue onward to Venezuelan territory, effectively reversing her earlier departure route from December.

The opposition figure had reportedly spent months preparing to re-enter Venezuela in an effort to renew pressure for new elections, following the detention of then-president Nicolás Maduro under an order issued by Trump. The U.S. president has since stated that Washington’s relationship with Venezuela’s acting leadership, headed by Delcy Rodríguez, is “excellent.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, intermediaries close to the White House warned Machado that proceeding with her return plan could jeopardize her support from Trump and undermine broader U.S. strategy toward Venezuela, potentially delaying electoral plans.

Despite these warnings, Machado reportedly attempted a second route back through Panama. However, Copa Airlines declined to transport her to Venezuela, citing concerns over possible retaliation from Caracas against the airline, according to unnamed sources.

From Panama City, Machado stated on Monday that the Venezuelan government had closed commercial airspace to prevent her return, calling it “urgent” to go back to the country to “face this catastrophe together,” without addressing reports of U.S. pressure.

Axios reported that Trump administration officials viewed Machado’s attempted return as “grotesque political opportunism” in the aftermath of recent earthquakes that have left at least 2,595 people dead and thousands injured, while also delaying reconstruction efforts and potential electoral processes.

Since Maduro’s detention on January 3, President Trump has reportedly expressed support for Rodríguez, the former vice president, who has agreed to trade, mining, and oil agreements demanded by Washington. Trump has described Venezuela as effectively operating under U.S. oversight and has claimed the country is improving economically through increased oil production and exports.

Venezuelan opposition groups based in the United States have urged the Trump administration to reconsider its relationship with Rodríguez and criticized Washington’s stated satisfaction with reconstruction efforts following the June 24 earthquakes.

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