International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Dominican court postpones hearing in deadly nightclub collapse case

10 reported dead after explosion in Dominican Republic

A Dominican court on Monday postponed until March a preliminary hearing against the owners of a nightclub that collapsed last year, killing more than 200 people.

The roof of the Jet Set nightclub collapsed in the early hours of April 8, 2025, during a concert by popular merengue singer Rubby Pérez, who died along with 235 other people.

Jet Set owner and manager Antonio Espaillat and his sister Maribel, who served as the club’s administrator, were arrested on charges of involuntary manslaughter but were later released on bail after posting approximately $842,500.

Both appeared at the Palace of Justice, where they were met by a small protest from relatives and friends of the victims.

“Thirty years in prison is not enough” and “President, we want JUSTICE,” read signs held by demonstrators.

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The preliminary hearing determines whether there is sufficient evidence to send the case to trial. The court decided to reschedule the hearing for March 16.

“We don’t want money and we’re not demanding anything else, only justice for those who died,” said Secundino Pérez, a 75-year-old shopkeeper who lost 12 friends in the Jet Set tragedy.

“Antonio and his family celebrated Christmas sitting at a table, celebrating their freedom,” said Edgar Gómez, who lost his daughter in the collapse.

The Dominican Republic’s Public Prosecutor’s Office maintains that the defendants “significantly altered” the structure of the nightclub. Prosecutors filed formal charges in November and requested that the case proceed to trial.

The charge of involuntary manslaughter carries a sentence of three months to two years in prison.

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“May your conscience never let you sleep. I lost my son,” a woman shouted through tears before the hearing, while others chanted, “Murderers, murderers, murderers.”

International

Venezuelan opposition leader dedicates Nobel Prize to Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that he was “eager” to welcome the opposition leader, who left Venezuela clandestinely with U.S. assistance, to receive her Nobel Prize in Oslo.

Machado dedicated her Nobel Prize to Trump, who nevertheless showed a very cautious attitude toward including her in any potential political transition in Venezuela.

The opposition leader said on Monday, after an audience with Pope Leo XIV, that “the defeat of evil is closer” in Venezuela following the U.S. military operation that overthrew and removed President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country.

Trump has claimed that he is now in control of the South American nation, stating that the primary objective at this stage is to stabilize the country before considering elections.

Venezuelan oil is Washington’s main objective, Trump added after Maduro’s overthrow.

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International

Police hunt gunmen after fatal shooting in Corsica

A man was shot dead on the French Mediterranean island of Corsica, local media reported. The victim was identified as Alain Orsoni, former president of local football club AC Ajaccio, according to sources close to the investigation cited by French news channel BFMTV.

Orsoni, 71, was killed in the town of Vero, near Ajaccio, the island’s capital, while attending his mother’s funeral.

He was also a former member of the National Liberation Front of Corsica (FLNC), a nationalist organization that has long sought independence for the island, reports said.

BFMTV reported that the gunmen fled the scene and remain at large. Local police have opened an investigation into the shooting.