International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
U.S. to Limit Visa Duration for Foreign Students and Journalists
The United States has announced new limits on the legal length of stay for foreign students and journalists, marking the latest tightening of immigration policies under President Donald Trump.
The changes, outlined in an administrative rule published on Thursday, are expected to take effect in September, unless Congress blocks the measure.
Under the new policy, holders of student visas will be allowed to remain in the United States for no more than four years.
Foreign journalists will be limited to 240-day stays—approximately eight months—with the possibility of applying for extensions of the same duration.
The policy imposes even stricter rules on Chinese journalists, whose visas will be capped at 90 days.
More than 100 international news organizations and press freedom groups, including Agence France-Presse (AFP), criticized the measure in an open letter, arguing that it would reduce both the quantity and quality of international coverage of events in the United States.
The Republican Party, led by President Trump, currently holds a majority in Congress and has pledged to curb both illegal immigration and certain forms of legal immigration.
Previously, the United States generally issued student visas for the full duration of an academic program, while foreign journalists could receive visas valid for up to five years.
Central America
Nicaragua Cuts Diplomatic Ties With Italy Over Red Brigades Dispute
The Nicaraguan government announced on Thursday that it is severing diplomatic relations with Italy following criticism from the Italian government over Nicaragua’s long-standing decision to shelter Alessio Casimirri, a former member of the Red Brigades convicted in Italy for the 1978 kidnapping and murder of former Prime Minister Aldo Moro.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani criticized the administration of co-presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo on Wednesday for continuing to provide refuge to Casimirri, who was sentenced in Italy to six life terms for his role in Moro’s abduction and killing.
In a statement issued Thursday, Nicaragua’s Foreign Ministry said it was ending all diplomatic relations with Italy, describing Tajani’s remarks as “unjustified, aggressive, and irresponsible.”
Tajani made the comments during a gathering of conservative leaders from Europe and Latin America held in Madrid.
“We have absolutely nothing in common with the positions of extremist governments such as Nicaragua, a country that continues to harbor dangerous Red Brigades terrorists like Alessio Casimirri,” Tajani said, according to Italian media.
The diplomatic break marks a new escalation in tensions between the two countries over the decades-old case involving Casimirri, who has lived in Nicaragua for many years despite repeated calls from Italy for his extradition.
International
U.S. Strikes Hit Areas Near Strait of Hormuz as Tensions With Iran Escalate
Several U.S. strikes targeted areas near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to Iranian state media citing local authorities, as hostilities between the United States and Iran intensified.
Officials in Iran’s Hormozgan Province said the island of Qeshm was struck multiple times by what they described as U.S. missiles during the evening. The reports were carried by the Iranian news agencies Fars and Tasnim.
Iranian state television also reported that the Bandar Abbas region, located on the Iranian coast overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, was the target of what authorities described as an “enemy U.S. air attack.”
According to local officials quoted by state television, no casualties have been reported following the strikes.
The reported attacks come amid renewed military tensions between Washington and Tehran, although U.S. authorities had not immediately commented on the reported operations.
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