International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Interpol Operation Leads to 8,700 Arrests and Massive Drug Seizures Across Latin America
Interpol and the Organization of American States (OAS) announced the arrest of more than 8,700 people and the seizure of over 3,300 firearms and 56 tons of illegal drugs across 20 countries in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean following a six-week multinational security operation.
According to a statement released by the OAS, the operation — known as Operation Orca XI — was carried out between October 15 and November 30, 2025, under the coordination of Interpol, with support from the OAS and funding from the European Union.
The operation resulted in 8,701 arrests linked to illegal firearm possession, drug trafficking, and other criminal activities. Authorities also confiscated nearly 200,000 rounds of ammunition, $256,025 in cash, and 210 vehicles connected to criminal operations.
Participating countries additionally reported the seizure of 6.9 tons of cocaine, 659,403 coca plants, 9.3 tons of coca paste, 38.5 tons of marijuana, two tons of methamphetamine, and 11 kilograms of ketamine.
In its statement, the OAS emphasized that illegal arms trafficking in the region is closely tied to other forms of organized crime, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, migrant smuggling, and cybercrime.
“Criminal organizations behind these crimes often use the same routes for multiple illicit goods,” the organization stated, adding that Operation Orca XI exposed the strong links between these criminal networks.
International
Mexico Denies Interpol Red Notice Against Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya
Mexico’s Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana (SSPC) stated on Wednesday that Sinaloa Governor on leave Rubén Rocha Moya is not subject to a Red Notice issued by Interpol, following reports that claimed an international warrant had been issued against him.
In an official statement, the federal agency said consultations were conducted with both national and international authorities, confirming that no international search or arrest mechanism exists against the Sinaloa politician.
“The Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection informs that the governor on leave of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha Moya, does not have a Red Notice issued by Interpol,” the SSPC said.
The clarification comes after speculation circulated regarding an alleged international order targeting Rocha Moya, prompting federal authorities to publicly deny the claims.
International
Rubio and Lavrov Hold Talks After Large-Scale Russian Assault on Ukraine
The United States remains willing to mediate in the war between Russia and Ukraine, Secretary of State Marco Rubiosaid Tuesday following a large-scale Russian attack against Kyiv.
“Every time you see these large attacks by either side, it is a reminder of why this is a terrible war (…) that must come to an end,” Rubio told reporters after holding a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Speaking during an official visit to India, Rubio stated that the United States is “ready and prepared to do whatever it can” to help facilitate an end to the conflict.
“We hope the opportunity presents itself at some point,” he added.
Russia warned on Monday that it could launch additional strikes against Kyiv, including attacks targeting what it described as “decision-making centers,” after carrying out weekend bombardments involving dozens of drones and missiles across Ukraine. The attacks reportedly killed four people.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Lavrov urged the United States during the call to evacuate diplomats from its embassy in Kyiv.
Rubio later clarified that Moscow had issued a warning to all embassies in the Ukrainian capital, not only to the U.S. diplomatic mission.
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