International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Hiroshima survivor who embraced Obama dies at 88

The emotional embrace between Barack Obama and Hiroshima survivor Mori—who was eight years old when the United States dropped the atomic bomb in 1945—resonated around the world.

According to Asahi Shimbun and other local media, Mori died on Saturday at a hospital in Hiroshima.

Mori, known for his research on the fate of American prisoners of war in Hiroshima, was thrown into a river by the force of the explosion on August 6, 1945, during the atomic bombing of the city.

In a past interview with AFP, ahead of his meeting with Obama at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial in 2016, Mori recalled the chaos and desperation that followed the blast.

He described how, after emerging from the water, he encountered injured civilians seeking help amid the devastation, an experience that stayed with him throughout his life.

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In 2016, Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit Hiroshima, where he paid tribute to the victims of the first atomic bomb used in warfare. During the visit, Mori was visibly moved as he met the president, sharing a brief but powerful moment that symbolized remembrance and reconciliation.

The bombing of Hiroshima resulted in the deaths of approximately 140,000 people, including those who succumbed to radiation exposure in the aftermath.

Three days later, a second atomic bomb was dropped on Nagasaki, killing an estimated 74,000 people and contributing to the end of World War II.

International

Colombia seeks ‘total suffocation’ of armed groups with regional support

Colombia is advancing a strategy aimed at the “total suffocation” of illegal armed groups, seeking to corner them in border regions with the support of Ecuador and Venezuela, Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez said in an interview with AFP.

According to the minister, coordinated pressure from neighboring countries—backed by United States—aims to dismantle criminal networks that use cross-border routes to traffic Colombian cocaine toward North America and Europe.

For decades, armed groups involved in Colombia’s internal conflict have relied on border territories as strategic rear bases to evade military operations and maintain logistical support.

However, Sánchez said that dynamic is beginning to change.

“We expect a total suffocation between both nations so they have no spaces where they can live or feel safe […] to close off any room they might have,” he stated during the interview in Bogotá, less than five months before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term.

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Regional developments have reinforced this strategy. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation, Washington has increased its influence in Caracas, where interim leader Delcy Rodríguez has implemented a renewed anti-narcotics policy.

Meanwhile, in Ecuador, President Daniel Noboa—a key U.S. ally in the region—has launched a two-week security plan under strict curfews to combat criminal gangs, with U.S. support.

Sánchez argued that these combined efforts leave illegal organizations with fewer escape routes and operational spaces, effectively placing them in a “dead end.”

International

Two killed in shooting at restaurant near Frankfurt Airport

Two people were shot dead early Tuesday at a restaurant in Raunheim, near Frankfurt Airport, according to local police.

Preliminary findings indicate that an armed individual entered the establishment at around 03:45 local time (02:45 GMT) and opened fire on the victims, who died at the scene from their injuries.

The suspect fled and remains at large, while the motive behind the shooting is still unclear, German media reported. Authorities have launched a large-scale search operation.