International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Former Trump allies call for removal, cite 25th Amendment amid Iran threats

Former allies of U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for his removal from office, arguing he is unfit to continue in the role following recent threats to “wipe out an entire civilization,” made just hours before the deadline of his ultimatum to Iran.

One of the most prominent voices was former Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who invoked the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution as a mechanism to remove the president from power.

“25th Amendment! Not a single bomb has fallen on the U.S. We cannot annihilate an entire civilization. This is evil and insanity,” Greene wrote on social media platform X.

Greene, once a leading figure within Trump’s political movement during his first term, broke with the president last November over disagreements on foreign policy and his handling of controversial cases.

Another former supporter, controversial commentator Alex Jones, also raised the possibility of applying the constitutional provision during his show, in a conversation with attorney Robert Barnes.

Barnes explained that invoking the 25th Amendment requires the support of two-thirds of Congress, making it a more complex process than impeachment.

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Section 4 of the amendment, ratified in 1967, establishes that the vice president, together with a majority of the cabinet, can declare the president unable to perform the duties of the office, a decision that must then be confirmed by both chambers of Congress.

The statements come amid rising international tensions and increasing domestic political pressure on the president.

International

Trump pauses strikes on Iran, extends ultimatum by two weeks

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, announced a temporary suspension of attacks against Iran for a period of two weeks, extending the ultimatum he had imposed on Tehran just hours before its deadline.

According to the president, the measure is conditional on Iran allowing the “full, immediate, and secure” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that the decision would involve a reciprocal ceasefire between both parties.

The announcement was made through a message on his social media platform, where he emphasized that the pause in military actions is intended to create space for de-escalation in the region.

He also noted that the decision followed a conversation with the prime minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, who requested a two-week extension of the ultimatum.

The move comes amid heightened global tensions, marked by escalating threats and concerns over the potential impact of the conflict on key international energy trade routes.

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International

WHO worker killed as Israeli forces fire on Gaza medical convoy

An employee of the World Health Organization (WHO) was killed on Monday in Gaza Strip after Israeli forces opened fire on a medical convoy transporting patients for evacuation, according to witnesses and official accounts.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the vehicle approached troops in a “threatening manner,” alleging that the driver accelerated toward soldiers despite warning shots. “The troops fired warning shots. The vehicle continued advancing, and additional fire was directed at it,” the military said in a statement.

The army also claimed the vehicle lacked clear markings and was therefore treated as a potential threat.

However, survivors disputed that account. Raed Aslan, a passenger in the convoy, told reporters in Khan Younis that the vehicles were clearly marked with WHO insignia. “The vehicle was clearly identified as belonging to the WHO,” he said, adding that an Israeli tank blocked the road and fired at the driver despite the route being empty.

The convoy was transporting patients to the Rafah crossing, the only exit point available for medical evacuations abroad, as Israel does not permit transfers to Jerusalem or the West Bank.

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The incident adds to a series of controversial cases involving Israeli military actions against humanitarian convoys. In April 2024, seven workers from World Central Kitchen were killed in an Israeli strike in Deir al-Balah. The military initially cited a “misidentification,” despite the vehicles being clearly marked.

Similarly, in March 2025, 15 paramedics, rescuers, and a UN worker were killed near Rafah. Israeli authorities first claimed emergency lights were off, but video evidence later contradicted that assertion.

A subsequent investigation by organizations including Forensic Architecture found that Israeli forces fired hundreds of rounds at the convoy, and that the vehicles were later destroyed and buried along with the bodies before being recovered days later.

The latest incident is likely to intensify scrutiny over the conduct of military operations in Gaza, particularly regarding the safety of humanitarian personnel and medical evacuations.