International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Security Council to Hold Emergency Meeting on Middle East Crisis

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Saturday condemned the “military escalation in the Middle East” following attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, just hours before an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.

“I call for the immediate cessation of hostilities and de-escalation,” Guterres said in a statement.

The Security Council is scheduled to meet on Saturday at 21:00 GMT (4:00 p.m. in New York) to address “the situation in the Middle East,” the United Nations announced.

The meeting, during which Guterres will deliver remarks, was convened at the request of France, Bahrain, Colombia, Russia and China, according to a diplomatic source.

International

Trump Floats “Friendly Takeover” of Cuba Amid Rising Tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that his administration is considering what he described as a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, as Washington continues to increase pressure on the island’s communist government.

“The Cuban government is talking to us and they have very serious problems, as you know. They have no money, they have nothing at this moment, but they are talking to us and maybe we will see a friendly takeover of Cuba,” Trump told reporters as he departed the White House for a trip to Texas.

Earlier in the week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Cuba needed a “radical change,” shortly after Washington eased restrictions on oil exports to the island for what officials described as “humanitarian reasons,” amid a deep economic crisis.

The United States has imposed an energy blockade on Cuba since January, citing what it calls an “extraordinary threat” posed by the communist-run island, located roughly 150 kilometers (90 miles) off the coast of Florida, to U.S. national security.

International

Argentina’s Senate Reviews Milei-Backed Labor Overhaul

Argentina’s Senate on Friday began reviewing the Labor Modernization Law promoted by the administration of President Javier Milei, a proposal that would significantly reshape labor rules across the country.

The upper chamber opened its final discussion of the contentious initiative, which revises the method used to calculate severance payments — lowering the amounts owed in dismissal cases — and introduces an “hour bank” mechanism that allows overtime to be offset with paid leave rather than extra wages.

The legislation also broadens the classification of essential services, a change that would place new limits on the right to strike in designated sectors.

The bill was initially approved by the Senate on February 11 and then moved to the Chamber of Deputies, where lawmakers passed it with amendments. It has now returned to the Senate for definitive approval.

Outside the Congress building in Buenos Aires, workers, trade unions and left-wing organizations staged demonstrations beginning at midday. The gathering later thinned out amid reports of disturbances and a strong police presence. Security forces had secured the area surrounding the legislature since early morning hours.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

Union leaders contend that the reform weakens labor protections, while many business representatives back the measure but stress that sustainable formal employment will require economic expansion, improved credit conditions, greater investment and a more dynamic domestic market.