International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Nine People Killed in Two Armed Attacks in Manabí, Ecuador

At least nine people were killed Monday in two nearly simultaneous armed attacks in the province of Manabí, located on Ecuador’s Pacific coast, one of the areas hardest hit by violence in the country, according to the National Police.

The first attack left seven people dead and took place in Camarones, a rural area of the Jama canton. The second occurred in the sector known as La Y, in the seaside town of Canoa, part of the San Vicente canton, where two people were killed.

According to preliminary reports, both incidents occurred early Monday morning when armed men intercepted the victims. Authorities said the motives behind the attacks remain under investigation.

The assault in Camarones happened around 1:15 a.m. local time, when a group of armed individuals stormed a ranch in the area. The victims have not yet been officially identified.

About 15 minutes later, in Canoa, two men traveling in a motorized taxi were intercepted by armed suspects riding motorcycles and shot. One of the victims was identified as a 28-year-old passenger, while the identity of the driver has not yet been confirmed.

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The attacks occurred just days after another multiple homicide on February 12 at a ranch in San Juan de las Cucarachas, a rural area of the Santa Ana canton in Manabí, which left six people dead.

Manabí has been experiencing escalating insecurity linked to disputes among organized crime groups, including drug trafficking networks and territorial control conflicts. In response, the government has maintained a state of emergency in the province since August to address the surge in violence attributed to these criminal organizations.

International

Over 40 Million Affected by Major Snowstorm in Northeastern U.S.

More than 40 million people across the northeastern United States are facing a new major snowstorm this Monday, including residents of New York City, where local authorities have shut down roads to traffic.

The storm triggered widespread flight cancellations early in the morning and caused power outages affecting thousands of homes and businesses throughout the region.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani banned non-essential vehicle travel at least until noon and ordered the closure of public schools as a precautionary measure. Authorities in neighboring states, including New Jersey and Rhode Island, imposed similar restrictions to ensure public safety.

This marks the second major winter storm to hit the East Coast in less than a month, leading to growing frustration among residents.

“I’m fed up. I don’t want to see another snowflake,” said Vincent Greer, a resident of Wildwood, New Jersey, as he shoveled accumulated snow from in front of his building.

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Officials continue to urge residents to remain indoors, avoid unnecessary travel, and monitor local advisories as crews work to clear roads and restore power.

International

Ninth Victim Recovered After Deadliest U.S. Avalanche in Decades

Rescue teams in California on Saturday recovered the body of the ninth and final victim of a deadly avalanche in the Sierra Nevada mountains, according to the local sheriff’s office.

The avalanche struck a group of 11 skiers and four guides on Tuesday as they were returning from a three-day backcountry trip near Castle Peak, a 2,777-meter (9,111-foot) mountain and popular tourist destination on the U.S. West Coast.

Six people were rescued alive on Tuesday. Authorities said the incident marks the deadliest avalanche in the United States since 1981.

“All nine individuals who lost their lives in the February 17 Castle Peak avalanche have been safely recovered from the mountain,” the Nevada County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement.

“There are no words that can truly capture the magnitude of this loss, and our hearts grieve alongside the families affected by this catastrophic event,” Sheriff Shannan Moon said.

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Officials had warned on Thursday that search operations would likely continue through the weekend due to severe weather conditions in the area.

Survivors were able to call for help shortly after the avalanche occurred. However, near-zero visibility and the risk of additional snow slides prevented rescue teams from reaching them for several hours.