International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
U.S. Sanctions Network Linked to Fentanyl Trafficking Across India, Guatemala and Mexico
The United States Department of State announced sanctions on Thursday against 23 individuals and companies allegedly linked to an international fentanyl production and smuggling network operating in India, Guatemala and Mexico.
According to the State Department, the network supplied precursor chemicals to the Sinaloa Cartel, which the United States has designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Washington declared fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, a weapon of mass destruction last year due to its role in the ongoing overdose crisis in the United States.
“By targeting the entire supply chain — from chemical suppliers in Asia to logistical intermediaries in Central America and cartel-linked networks in Mexico — the Trump Administration is dismantling networks that destabilize governance across our hemisphere and threaten U.S. security,” the State Department said.
In a separate statement, the Office of Foreign Assets Control detailed sanctions against three Indian chemical and pharmaceutical companies: Sutaria, Agrat and SR Chemicals, along with a sales executive accused of supplying precursor chemicals to contacts in Guatemala and Mexico.
In Guatemala, authorities sanctioned J and C Import and Central Logística de Servicios, as well as intermediary Jaime Augusto Barrientos.
The OFAC also designated several intermediaries and import companies operating in the Mexican state of Sinaloa.
As part of the investigation, U.S. authorities identified Ramiro Baltazar Félix as a member of Los Mayos, a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, and Alejandro Reynoso, accused of operating clandestine drug laboratories in Guadalajara.
International
Pope Leo XIV Says Countries Have Border Rights but Migrants Deserve Respect
Pope Leo XIV said Thursday that migrants must be treated with dignity as he addressed the global migration crisis during a press conference aboard the plane returning from his tour of Africa.
The pontiff answered questions from journalists regarding his upcoming trip to Spain, which will include a visit to the Canary Islands, a region heavily affected by migration flows and growing political polarization surrounding the issue.
“Obviously, migration is a very complex issue and affects many countries — not only Spain, not only Europe, but also the United States. It is a global phenomenon,” the pope said.
Pope Leo XIV also questioned the role of developed nations in addressing the crisis.
“My response begins with a question: What is the Global North doing to help the Global South and those countries where young people no longer see a future and dream of going north, even when the North sometimes has no answers to offer?” he asked.
While acknowledging that “a state has the right to establish rules for its borders,” the pope insisted that the debate must go beyond border control and address the structural causes that force people to leave their home countries.
International
Authorities Say Teotihuacán Gunman Was Obsessed With Mass Shootings and Extremist Symbolism
Julio César Jasso Ramírez, identified by authorities as the gunman behind the armed attack at the archaeological site of Teotihuacán, had allegedly spent years building a personal narrative shaped by an obsession with historical mass shootings, extremist symbolism, and an increasing detachment from reality.
According to preliminary findings from the Fiscalía General de Justicia del Estado de México, the 27-year-old suspect, originally from the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, acted alone and appeared to have carefully planned the attack.
Investigators also pointed to signs of a severe psychological or psychiatric disorder. One official involved in the case stated that the suspect seemed to live in “his own reality,” disconnected from the world around him.
“I would not speak of a motive; I would speak of psychopathy, a condition, an illness,” the official said while discussing the ongoing investigation.
Authorities reported that Jasso Ramírez was allegedly fixated on mass violence incidents that occurred outside Mexico, particularly in the United States.
Among the items found in his possession were writings, images, and materials reportedly linked to the Columbine High School massacre, the school shooting that took place on April 20, 1999.
The investigation remains ongoing as authorities continue analyzing evidence connected to the suspect’s background and mental state.
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