International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Lula Launches Re-Election Campaign Amid Rising Tensions With Trump
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set to be officially nominated for re-election by his Workers’ Party (PT), marking the start of his campaign for a fourth presidential term.
The nomination takes place during the party’s national convention in São Paulo, Brazil’s economic hub, where around 3,000 supporters gathered to back the veteran leftist leader.
“Today I’m here because Lula’s policies changed my life and my family’s. Thanks to him, we finally own a home after eight generations without one,” said Cristiane Rosa Julho, a 51-year-old social worker attending the event dressed in the PT’s signature red.
Seeking the presidency for the seventh time in his political career, Lula is expected to face Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in next year’s election.
The 45-year-old senator is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been jailed over his alleged role in an attempted coup following his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election.
The party convention opened with videos highlighting Lula’s social initiatives and speeches by four women praising his leadership, while supporters waved PT flags and held signs reading “We Want Lula as President” and “Brazil Is Not for Sale.”
The campaign begins amid growing tensions with the United States and President Donald Trump, a close ally of the Bolsonaro family who has openly backed several conservative candidates across Latin America.
Last week, Lula warned against foreign interference, declaring, “In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it doesn’t belong.”
In July, the United States imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products, accusing the country of unfair trade practices. The measures followed earlier restrictions introduced in 2025, encouraged by Jair Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo Bolsonaro, in response to legal proceedings against the former president.
Lula has vowed to wage what he called a “war of truth against lies” in response to Washington’s pressure and accused Flávio Bolsonaro of undermining Brazil’s interests by allegedly helping the United States damage the country’s economy. The senator has denied the accusations.
The Brazilian president also claims Washington is attempting to influence the country’s political landscape in an effort to prevent his re-election.
International
Truck bomb attack near police station in Colombia leaves 14 injured ahead of presidential inauguration
A truck loaded with explosives exploded on Saturday near a police station in the Colombian city of Cúcuta, close to the Venezuelan border, leaving 14 people injured in an attack that occurred six days before president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella’s inauguration.
The blast took place in the early hours of the morning and was allegedly carried out by members of the National Liberation Army (ELN), who detonated a vehicle packed with explosives. According to the latest report from the Colombian Army, the attack injured 11 police officers and three civilians.
The explosion involved around 15 explosive devices, and two of the wounded officers are in critical condition and “fighting for their lives,” said William Villamizar, governor of Norte de Santander, the region where the attack occurred.
The incident comes amid Colombia’s worst wave of violence in the past decade, with armed groups expanding their presence in several areas of the country.
“I strongly condemn the cowardly terrorist attack carried out in Cúcuta against our National Police. Terrorism will not intimidate Colombia or break the determination of Colombians to live in peace and security,” De la Espriella said in a post on X.
The conservative lawyer, who has been described as a far-right figure, will take office on August 7, replacing Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president. The inauguration ceremony will be held in Cali, the country’s third-largest city and a frequent target of attacks by armed groups.
The United Nations condemned what it described as an “indiscriminate attack” that caused not only injuries but also “fear and distress among the population.”
De la Espriella has repeatedly warned about an alleged plot against his life. Meanwhile, President Gustavo Petro, who is currently visiting Cuba, has not commented on the attack. During his visit, Petro met with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel to discuss what Havana describes as the United States’ “policy of suffocation” toward the island.
International
EU Faces Migration Crisis After 60,000 Migrants Arrive in Spain’s Ceuta Enclave
The arrival of around 60,000 migrants from Morocco to Spain’s Ceuta enclave triggered a major European Union crisis on Friday, after Madrid described the situation as an “attack” on its territorial integrity.
At least 34 people died while attempting to reach the Spanish territory, according to local authorities.
Hundreds of migrants had begun arriving in Ceuta earlier in the week, either by swimming across the border or climbing security fences. Most of those who entered were young men and teenagers.
However, the situation escalated dramatically early Thursday morning, when the number of arrivals surged within a few hours, reaching nearly 60,000 people. According to the Spanish government, the vast majority of them — around 48,000 migrants — had returned to Morocco by Friday evening.
The episode represents one of the most serious migration crises faced by the autonomous city of Ceuta, which has a population of around 84,000 residents, in recent years.
Several European countries responded strongly to the crisis, with Italy announcing the temporary suspension of the Schengen free movement agreement with Spain, a measure supported by Finland and Denmark.
“The temporary suspension of Schengen with Spain is a necessary decision to protect the security of our citizens and defend Europe’s borders,” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said in a post on X.
Italy’s Interior Ministry confirmed that the country had tightened controls on maritime and air entry points from Spain, but clarified that the measure would not affect Spanish or European citizens traveling to Italy.
The additional checks will specifically target non-European citizens arriving from Spain, according to the ministry.
The measure will remain in effect for one month starting Saturday, authorities said.
Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares responded to the Italian announcement through a statement on X, as European governments continued discussions over the consequences of the migration crisis.
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