International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Portuguese Authorities Seize 2.6 Tons of Cocaine Worth More Than $550 Million in Drug Bust
Italian financial police reported Monday that Portuguese authorities intercepted a speedboat carrying more than 2.6 tons of cocaine, with an estimated street value exceeding $550 million.
Four people — two Spanish nationals, one Albanian citizen, and a man from Gibraltar — were arrested in connection with the operation, according to Italian authorities.
The vessel was intercepted off the coast of Lisbon by Portugal’s maritime police following an investigation led by Italian authorities.
Italian financial police estimated that the seized shipment had a street value of approximately 500 million euros ($570 million), making it one of the largest drug seizures reported in the region in recent years.
Portuguese authorities said the interception took place on Thursday, about 90 kilometers (50 nautical miles) southwest of Cape Espichel, during an operation targeting international drug trafficking routes.
International
U.S. and Iran Maintain Ceasefire as Trump Expresses Optimism Over New Talks
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that there are “good chances” of reaching an agreement with Iran, as both sides maintained a ceasefire for the third consecutive day following weeks of escalating hostilities.
Trump expressed optimism about the possibility of resuming diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending the conflict, which began in late February and has raised international concerns over its impact on global markets and energy supplies.
The fighting has remained suspended since Saturday, after the United States resumed airstrikes against Iran amid a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. The renewed military action had previously caused the collapse of an earlier ceasefire agreement.
Asked about the prospects for negotiations aboard Air Force One, Trump said: “I have a lot of patience… We’ll see what happens. I think there are good chances that something could happen.”
The U.S. president also highlighted Washington’s military capabilities, saying: “We have a lot of ammunition,” while adding that he would like to have more resources due to U.S. support for Ukraine.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump was allowing diplomatic efforts more time, explaining that the president was “giving some space to the talks” while maintaining that Washington remains prepared to take action if necessary.
Meanwhile, tensions continue in other areas of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reported that it intercepted drones launched from Iraq by groups allied with Tehran and urged the Iraqi government to take measures to prevent further attacks.
International
Police Investigate After Remains of Five Newborns Found in French Apartment
French authorities have opened a murder investigation after the discovery of human remains believed to belong to five newborn babies inside an apartment in the historic center of a city, the local prosecutor’s office reported Monday night.
According to prosecutors, a 32-year-old woman had given birth at home on Sunday to a healthy baby before being taken to a hospital for medical care.
The discovery was made after the woman’s 32-year-old partner began searching the residence after reportedly learning, once again and at a late stage, that she had been pregnant.
During the search, the man found what appeared to be human remains and informed the hospital, which then alerted prosecutors.
A forensic doctor determined that the remains likely belonged to five newborn infants. Authorities have not yet established the circumstances or motive behind the case.
Investigators have not been able to interview the mother, who remains hospitalized following the delivery.
Prosecutors also confirmed that the couple has two other children, aged eight and nine years old. The investigation remains ongoing as authorities work to clarify the events surrounding the discovery.
Portuguese Authorities Seize 2.6 Tons of Cocaine Worth More Than $550 Million in Drug Bust
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