International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Argentina detects first local cases of Influenza A (H3N2) Subclade K

Argentina’s National Administration of Laboratories and Health Institutes (ANLIS) “Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán” has confirmed the detection of three cases of influenza A (H3N2) corresponding to subclade K in the country. These are the first locally recorded cases of this variant, which has become predominant in several countries in the Northern Hemisphere in recent months and is associated with higher transmissibility.

The cases were identified through the National Network of Laboratories and Sentinel Units and confirmed by the National Reference Laboratory of INEI-ANLIS using genomic sequencing techniques. According to health authorities, the cases involve two adolescents from the province of Santa Cruz, detected as part of the Ambulatory Monitoring Strategy for Acute Respiratory Infections, and a child who had been hospitalized in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires.

In all three cases, patients experienced mild illness and recovered without complications. Officials did not specify whether any of the affected individuals had a recent travel history.

The jurisdictions involved have already launched the corresponding epidemiological investigations and are responsible for ensuring timely medical care for the detected cases. According to the latest integrated surveillance report, the circulation of influenza and other respiratory viruses in Argentina remains within expected levels for this time of year.

International

Pentagon confirms Trump pick for SouthCom as U.S. military pressure grows

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has nominated a Marine Corps lieutenant general to lead U.S. Southern Command (SouthCom), the Pentagon announced on Friday, as Trump said he does not rule out the possibility of a war with Venezuela.

If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Marine Corps Lieutenant General Francis L. Donovan would replace an admiral who, according to media reports, criticized recent attacks on vessels allegedly linked to drug trafficking off the Venezuelan coast.

Washington has deployed a significant military presence in both the Caribbean and the Pacific, where it has carried out airstrikes against boats it claims were used by suspected drug traffickers. According to an AFP tally based on official information, the attacks have left more than 100 people dead.

The Venezuelan government has denounced what it describes as a plot to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro and seize the country’s oil resources.

In a statement published Friday on the Pentagon’s website, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that Trump had nominated Lieutenant General Donovan to serve as commander of U.S. Southern Command.

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SouthCom is responsible for U.S. military operations in Central and South America, as well as parts of the Caribbean.

According to the Department of Defense, Donovan currently serves as deputy commander of U.S. Special Operations Command. His appointment is subject to Senate confirmation.

International

Trump moves to reclassify marijuana as less dangerous substance

Former U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous addictive substance, a move aimed at encouraging medical research without immediately opening the door to federal-level decriminalization.

Trump said that “people were begging” him to make the decision, particularly individuals suffering from chronic pain. He stressed, however, that the measure “is not at all a decriminalization” of marijuana for non-medical use.

“I’ve always told my children: don’t use drugs, don’t drink, don’t smoke,” Trump added. He is a well-known teetotaler.

A senior government official described the decision as “common sense” during a briefing with reporters, noting that marijuana and CBD-based products — a compound derived from cannabis known for its relaxing properties — are already widely used in the United States by patients dealing with chronic pain.

Most U.S. states currently allow the use of cannabis for medical purposes, and more than 20 states, along with the nation’s capital, Washington, D.C., have also legalized recreational use.