International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

German president warns Iran war could spread and disrupt Strait of Hormuz

The president of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, warned Monday that the war involving Iran could expand and further disrupt shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. He urged a swift end to hostilities between Iran, United States and Israel.

Speaking in Panama City during a joint appearance with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Steinmeier said available information suggests Iran has significant capacity to disrupt maritime traffic through the key oil route.

“Iran has considerable potential to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” Steinmeier said through an interpreter. “We should therefore reach an end to the hostilities as soon as possible and call on all parties involved to make that happen.”

The remarks came during Steinmeier’s visit to Panama, the first by a German president to the Central American nation.

The German leader described the possibility of the conflict spreading as “very dangerous,” saying recent developments indicate that such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

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Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump urged allied nations to help ensure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran moved to block the waterway in response to U.S. strikes. However, several allies—particularly in Europe—have shown little support for the proposal.

“Some are very enthusiastic, others are not, and some are countries we have helped for many years,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We have protected them from terrible external threats, and they’re not that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm is important to me.”

Meanwhile, Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said the Strait of Hormuz falls “outside NATO’s scope” and stressed that “the war involving Iran is not Europe’s war.”

International

Mexico security chief meets DEA director in Washington to boost anti-drug cooperation

Mexico’s Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch, met in Washington with the head of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, Terrance Cole, to discuss cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking and illegal arms flows.

The Mexican official said Monday on social media that he attended the meeting in representation of the Mexican government’s Security Cabinet.

“In Washington, D.C., I represented the Security Cabinet to hold talks with DEA Director Terrance Cole on the importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation to combat drug trafficking, curb the flow of weapons into our country, and reduce violence in Mexico through significant arrests,” García Harfuch wrote.

He added that, following instructions from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, the government will continue strengthening international cooperation on security matters.

For his part, Cole said the meeting focused on cross-border collaboration to tackle drug trafficking and to build safer communities on both sides of the border.

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The meeting comes as Mexico and the United States begin a new round of dialogue on economic and security issues.

Earlier Monday, President Claudia Sheinbaum said she will look for the “best moment” to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump, adding that maintaining a good relationship with Washington is a priority for her administration.

International

Venezuela’s foreign minister accuses UN rights chief of “immoral bias”

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil criticized the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, accusing him of having an “immoral bias” and acting as an “echo chamber for falsehoods” regarding the situation in Venezuela.

Gil’s remarks came after Türk stated that his office had not received an official list from Venezuelan authorities detailing the release of political prisoners, nor authorization to carry out visits related to the issue.

“The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights insists on a narrative biased against our country, repeating unfounded accusations while deliberately omitting the impact of unilateral coercive measures on the rights of the Venezuelan people,” Gil said in a message posted on his Telegram channel.

Without directly addressing the question of prisoner releases, the Venezuelan foreign minister also accused Türk of aligning with what he described as the “agenda of extremism in Venezuela.”

Gil added that, despite serious human rights violations occurring in other parts of the world, the UN official has chosen to maintain what he described as an “immoral bias” against Venezuela.

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The criticism is part of a broader dispute between the Venezuelan government and the UN human rights office over reports and investigations concerning the human rights situation in the country.