International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Authorities capture CJNG financial chief in international airport operation
A man identified as the main financial operator of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) was arrested Thursday at Mexico City’s international airport, authorities reported.
The individual, named by Mexican media as Óscar Antonio Álvarez, was apprehended during an operation involving the army, navy, National Guard, police, and the attorney general’s office, according to a joint statement.
Álvarez is considered the primary financial operator of a criminal group originating in Jalisco, and the capture took place at Benito Juárez Airport as he arrived on a flight from Barcelona, Spain.
Authorities stated that Álvarez faces charges of organized crime and money laundering, specifically for receiving and transferring illicit funds. His work with the CJNG reportedly included purchasing properties and managing businesses in the tequila and livestock sectors.
According to El Universal, Álvarez was directly under the command of Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho”, the cartel’s top leader, for whom the U.S. offers a $15 million reward.
The CJNG, which operates throughout Mexico and in various parts of the world, was designated earlier this year as a “foreign terrorist organization” by the U.S. government.
Álvarez was handed over to the federal public prosecutor to determine his legal situation, the report added.
International
Jair Bolsonaro sentenced for leading armed criminal plot after 2022 election loss
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, 70, has been sentenced for leading an armed criminal organization that attempted to cling to power after losing the 2022 elections to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The alleged coup plot, which reportedly included a plan to assassinate Lula, was not carried out due to lack of support from the military leadership.
By a four-to-one vote of the judges overseeing the case, seven co-defendants, including former ministers and military chiefs, were also convicted.
“A criminal armed organization was formed by the defendants, who must be sentenced based on the factual circumstances I consider proven,” said the final judge to cast a vote, Cristiano Zanin.
Bolsonaro, who has been under house arrest since August, did not attend the court hearings, citing health issues.
Reacting on X, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, said: “They call this a trial a process whose outcome everyone already knew before it began.”
One of the first international reactions came from the White House. Former U.S. President Donald Trump called the sentence “very surprising,” while Senator Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, stated that the United States will “respond accordingly” to the “unjust” ruling.
International
Poland invokes NATO Article 4 after russian drone incursion
The violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones on Wednesday triggered the most serious clash between Russia and NATO since the start of the war in Ukraine, prompting Poland to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which calls for consultations among allies.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed Parliament on Wednesday, describing an unprecedented “aggression” in which at least 19 Russian drones breached Polish airspace, creating a situation that the Prime Minister described as “the closest to an open conflict since World War II.”
Speaking at the start of an extraordinary Council of Ministers session, Tusk stated that “this is the first time Russian drones have been shot down over the territory of a NATO member state, and that is why all our allies are taking the situation very seriously.”
Although he affirmed that “there is no reason to claim that we are in a state of war,” he labeled the incidents as “a large-scale provocation” and ordered the invocation of NATO’s Article 4 to call for consultations with allied nations.
Tusk also noted on X (formerly Twitter) that he had received “not only expressions of solidarity with Poland but, above all, concrete proposals to support the country’s air defense” during discussions with European leaders throughout the day.
The Polish leader specifically mentioned conversations with the leaders of the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands—Keir Starmer, Giorgia Meloni, Friedrich Merz, and Dick Schoof—along with French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
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