International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Foro Penal Reports 404 Political Prisoners Still Held in Venezuela
The Venezuelan human rights organization Foro Penal, which leads legal defense efforts for political prisoners in the country, reported on Wednesday that 404 people remain imprisoned for political reasons, five fewer than the figure released a week earlier. Among those detained are 39 foreign nationals or individuals with dual citizenship.
According to data published by the organization, the current total includes 369 men and 35 women being held on political grounds. The report also indicates that 225 of the detainees are civilians, including one teenager, while 179 are members of the military.
Foro Penal stated that 167 of the prisoners have been convicted, whereas 237 remain behind bars without a final sentence. The organization also noted that it has documented 19,102 politically motivated detentions in Venezuela since 2014.
The updated figures come amid an ongoing process of prisoner releases announced by Venezuelan authorities. Two weeks ago, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez said that approximately 300 detainees would be freed as part of a new round of releases, separate from those granted under an amnesty approved earlier this year.
Days later, acting President Delcy Rodríguez stated that the number of releases would reach 500 in the coming days. However, relatives of political prisoners and human rights organizations have questioned the pace of the process, arguing that the number of verified releases remains significantly lower than the figures announced by the government.
Foro Penal has reported that dozens of prisoners have been released in recent weeks, but the organization maintains that hundreds of people continue to be detained for political reasons despite the government’s promises and the implementation of the amnesty process.
Families of detainees have continued to demand greater transparency regarding the release process, alleging that many of the promised excarcerations have yet to materialize and calling on authorities to provide clear information about those who remain in custody.
International
Eight Bodies Found in Ecuador as Authorities Probe Link to Missing Persons Case
Ecuadorian police reported on Wednesday the discovery of eight bodies inside bags in a coastal area of southwestern Ecuador known as a strategic corridor for drug trafficking, as the country continues to grapple with an unprecedented wave of violence.
Authorities are now investigating whether the victims are the same eight people who disappeared on Sunday while traveling to complete a personal errand.
“We have confirmed that there are eight bodies,” said Colonel Galo Muñoz, the police chief for the area, during a press briefing. The bodies were found on the outskirts of the city of Babahoyo.
Interior Minister John Reimberg stated that investigators recovered a note near the bodies suggesting the killings may have been an attack carried out by the criminal organization Los Lobos against Los Choneros, two of Ecuador’s most powerful and violent criminal groups.
According to Muñoz, the bodies were wrapped and transported to a forensic center where specialists will work to establish their identities.
Milagro prosecutor Modesto Freire said the condition of the remains has complicated the identification process.
“The victims’ faces cannot be seen because the bodies are inside bags,” Freire explained.
In a statement posted on social media, Ecuador’s Attorney General’s Office said investigators are collecting evidence to determine whether the remains correspond to the eight individuals reported missing on May 31.
The discovery underscores the ongoing security crisis in Ecuador, where escalating violence linked to organized crime and drug trafficking has become one of the country’s most pressing challenges.
Central America
El Niño could intensify global climate risks, warns World Meteorological Organization
Latin American countries, one of the regions in the world most affected by El Niño, must “take extreme precautions” and make use of so-called “climate intelligence” to mitigate the most severe impacts of the phenomenon, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Celeste Saulo, told EFE on Tuesday.
With a 90% probability, El Niño is expected to return in the second half of this year, and a strong intensity cannot be ruled out.
As a result, the phenomenon could trigger intense rainfall and flooding in some areas, while causing droughts in others, leading to direct impacts on communities and a wide range of economic sectors, including fishing and agriculture.
Saulo said countries in the region have improved their scientific and institutional capacity to monitor and respond to El Niño, as well as to understand how it interacts with other climate variables, including those linked to climate change, in order to better forecast “more or less severe impacts.”
When describing likely consequences in South and Central America, the Argentine scientist first referred to the “Coastal El Niño,” as the phenomenon is known in Peru and Ecuador.
She explained that this event brings increased rainfall and ocean warming, which strongly affects the fishing industry.
She added that northern South America, Central America, and northeastern Brazil are typically exposed to below-normal rainfall or drought conditions. In past extreme episodes, El Niño has even affected the operational capacity of the Panama Canal and created serious water access and management challenges during severe droughts.
In contrast, southeastern South America—including southern Brazil, Paraguay, northern and northeastern Argentina, and Uruguay—can expect above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, severe storms, and landslides.
Given the potential for fear and misinformation among populations, Saulo urged people to “trust the institutions responsible for meteorological information,” stressing that national meteorological services are the official and authoritative sources in each country.
“These are the ultimate responsible authorities and the voices of expertise,” she emphasized.
The most recent El Niño episode occurred between 2023 and 2024 and was among the five strongest ever recorded, contributing to record global temperatures.
The WMO chief noted that climate models remain uncertain about the intensity of the next El Niño, though more accurate forecasts are expected in the coming weeks.
While climate change has not been proven to increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, scientists do know that both can interact and amplify extreme weather impacts, potentially leading to natural disasters.
Although Latin America is often heavily affected, El Niño impacts can also be felt in North America, the Caribbean, central and eastern Africa, parts of Asia, and Australia.
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