International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
White House considered dropping leaflets over Caracas to pressure Maduro
The White House recently proposed a plan to drop leaflets from U.S. military aircraft over Caracas to further pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by The Washington Post.
The operation — which as of Saturday had not yet been authorized — considered dropping the leaflets this Sunday, the day of Maduro’s 63rd birthday. The materials were expected to highlight the $50 million reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, a bounty the White House doubled in August on the grounds that the Venezuelan leader is involved in “narcoterrorism.”
The proposal represents an escalation in Washington’s efforts to oust Maduro, a goal Trump pursued during his first term (2017–2021) and one that remains a priority for several of his top advisers.
Since the summer, the United States has carried out a large-scale military deployment in the southern Caribbean aimed at pressuring Maduro and, according to the White House, combating drug trafficking. This operation has resulted in the destruction of roughly twenty boats allegedly carrying narcotics and the deaths of 83 people on board.
In mid-November, Trump said he had made a decision regarding a possible military action in Venezuela, further raising tensions with Caracas.
On Friday, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an advisory urging commercial flights to “exercise extreme caution” when flying over Venezuela and the southern Caribbean due to the “potentially hazardous situation” linked to increased military activity in the region.
This prompted several European and American airlines to cancel flights to the Caribbean nation.
International
Trump attacks Europe and Biden on Truth Social ahead of talks on Ukraine peace plan
In a message posted on Truth Social, the U.S. president also targeted European nations, “which continue buying oil from Russia,” as well as his predecessor, Joe Biden, whom he accused of inaction at the start of the conflict.
“I inherited a war that never should have happened, a war in which everyone is losing,” the president wrote in all caps on his social media platform.
“The Ukrainian leaders have shown zero gratitude for our efforts, and Europe keeps buying oil from Russia.”
“The United States continues to sell massive quantities of weapons to NATO for distribution to Ukraine (corrupt Joe gave everything away — free, free, free — including large sums of money!),” he added.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with a Ukrainian delegation in Geneva this Sunday in hopes of advancing Trump’s plan for Ukraine.
Washington now presents Trump’s 28-point proposal as a “framework for negotiations” aimed at ending the conflict, though it is viewed with concern in both Kyiv and Brussels.
International
Tatiana Schlossberg reveals aggressive leukemia diagnosis in personal New Yorker essay
In a deeply personal essay published in The New Yorker, Tatiana Schlossberg revealed her diagnosis: acute myeloid leukemia with a rare genetic mutation known as Inversion 3, a variant that responds poorly to standard treatments.
The 35-year-old journalist explained that the disease was discovered shortly after the birth of her second daughter in May 2024, when doctors detected an extremely high white blood cell count. Schlossberg said she was in complete shock upon receiving the diagnosis, noting that she “didn’t feel sick” and had experienced a healthy pregnancy.
Her treatment since then has been intense. She has undergone chemotherapy, at least two bone marrow transplants, and is participating in clinical trials involving CAR-T therapy, an advanced form of immunotherapy. In one of these trials, her doctors told her they might be able to “keep [her] alive for a year, maybe less.”
Schlossberg reflected on her fears for her children, her husband, George Moran, and her parents, and on the emotional weight of becoming part of the Kennedy family’s long history of tragedy. She also criticized her cousin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for political decisions that she argues have harmed medical research that could benefit cancer patients like her.
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