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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

Looting Spreads in Venezuela’s Hardest-Hit Areas After Deadly Earthquakes

Not even the wires were left behind at a small grocery store. Before the ground had even stopped shaking, looting and theft began in the areas hardest hit by the double earthquake that struck Venezuela.

Reports of robberies have multiplied in the coastal state of La Guaira, located near Caracas and now transformed into a landscape of collapsed buildings and debris.

Videos circulating on social media show groups of people removing boxes of household appliances from a damaged store. Other images show similar boxes being carried on top of vehicles and motorcycles.

Social media platforms have also been filled with accusations against police officers and military personnel who allegedly stole from homes and even from victims who died during the disaster.

A branch of a major pharmacy chain was looted, along with supermarkets and other businesses. Some residents have described the situation as “disaster tourism,” while others say the looting reflects hunger and desperation among people who lost everything in a country already facing a prolonged economic crisis.

“Is it fair that our own people turn against our own people?” said María Esther Bernal, 71, who rented commercial spaces to Chinese merchants, all of which were looted. “They left nothing behind, not even the wallpaper. They even took the cables,” she said.

“Next door, a man died. He was Chinese. People walked over his body while they looted the place. It was a supermarket,” she added.

An AFP journalist witnessed looting in La Guaira since Thursday, following the earthquakes.

Jenifer Mayora, 34, defended some of the actions, saying that “the things people took were because the owners of the stores allowed us to take them.”

However, she criticized the limited response from authorities. “I have been waiting for a mattress so my children can sleep,” she said.

Residents have expressed anger over what they describe as a slow and insufficient response from authorities after the double earthquake, which has left around 1,450 people dead and tens of thousands missing.

Communities are demanding not only faster rescue operations in La Guaira, but also stronger security measures and urgent assistance with food, water, and medicine.

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International

UN warns Venezuela earthquakes could affect up to 6.76 million people

Up to 6.76 million people could be affected by the devastating earthquakes that struck Venezuela on June 24, according to an assessment released by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a United Nations agency.

The organization said the projections are based on available population data and damage assessments, and include up to two million people living in Caracas, the country’s capital.

The estimates highlight the potentially massive humanitarian impact of the disaster, the IOM warned.

Entire buildings collapsed in La Guaira, a coastal area north of Caracas, following the powerful twin earthquakes that reached magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5 on Wednesday.

The national death toll has risen to 920, while rescue teams continue searching for people trapped beneath the rubble in coastal regions and other affected areas.

UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher told AFP on Friday that more than 50,000 people were reported missing.

The IOM also revealed that it worked with Microsoft’s artificial intelligence laboratory on an initial satellite mapping analysis, which showed that 31.5% of buildings in the town of Catia La Mar had suffered damage.

Authorities and international rescue teams continue operations as Venezuela faces one of its largest humanitarian emergencies in recent years.

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International

United Nations Coordinates Relief Efforts as Venezuela Death Toll Rises After Twin Quakes

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday expressed his condolences to the people of Venezuela following the two devastating earthquakes that struck the country and highlighted the ongoing coordination between UN humanitarian teams and interim President Delcy Rodríguez.

Speaking during the UN’s daily press briefing, spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said Guterres was deeply saddened by the loss of life and widespread destruction caused by the disaster.

“The Secretary-General is deeply distressed by the loss of life and the widespread devastation caused by the earthquakes that struck Venezuela yesterday. He extends his heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims and wishes a speedy recovery to those injured,” Dujarric stated.

Venezuela was struck on Wednesday by two powerful earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 in magnitude. According to official figures, the disaster has left at least 164 people dead and 971 others injured.

Dujarric noted that preliminary reports indicate significant damage across several states, including the capital, Caracas. Numerous casualties have been reported, while other individuals remain trapped beneath collapsed structures or are still missing.

“Critical infrastructure has been damaged and essential services have been disrupted,” the spokesperson said.

The United Nations confirmed that its humanitarian team remains in close contact with interim President Delcy Rodríguez and other relevant authorities as emergency operations continue.

To support relief efforts, the UN has established a coordination center in Caracas and is assisting local authorities to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches affected communities as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Guterres also welcomed the expressions of solidarity and offers of assistance from countries around the world that responded following news of the disaster, underscoring the importance of international cooperation in addressing the humanitarian emergency.

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