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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

U.S. Proposes Higher Citizenship Fees and Limits on Immigration Fee Waivers

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has proposed increasing fees related to citizenship applications, while also seeking changes to programs that reduce or waive immigration-related costs for certain applicants.

The proposal would eliminate fee waivers and reduced-fee programs for immigrants whose household incomes are at or below 400% of the federal poverty level.

However, the changes would not take effect immediately. Before receiving final approval, the proposal must go through a 60-day public comment period, allowing individuals and organizations to submit feedback.

DHS justified the proposed increases by stating that the goal is to fully cover the costs associated with processing citizenship and naturalization applications.

“Although the Department of Homeland Security has historically limited form fees to promote naturalization, the agency no longer considers that these applications should have lower costs at the expense of other immigration benefits,” the department said in the proposal document.

If approved, the reform would modify the current immigration fee structure and could impact thousands of applicants who rely on financial assistance programs to complete their citizenship process.

U.S. authorities said the measure is part of a broader review of immigration service fees and the mechanisms used to fund the administration of these programs.

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International

Cristiano Ronaldo Makes History as First Player to Score in Six World Cups

Cristiano Ronaldo made football history on Tuesday by becoming the first player ever to score in six different editions of the FIFA World Cup.

The Portuguese forward opened the scoring in Portugal’s Group K match against Uzbekistan in Houston. Just six minutes into the game, Ronaldo found the back of the net with a right-footed strike from inside the box, sending the Portuguese fans into celebration.

The “Commander” sparked excitement throughout the stadium with his iconic celebration, as supporters joined in with his famous “Siuuu!” chant to honor another milestone in the career of one of football’s greatest stars.

At 41 years old, Ronaldo has now scored in Germany 2006, South Africa 2010, Brazil 2014, Russia 2018, Qatar 2022, and North America 2026. With his two goals in this tournament, he has surpassed Lionel Messi’s record, as the Argentine has scored in every World Cup he played except South Africa 2010.

The Portuguese captain has also reached nine World Cup goals, matching Eusébio as Portugal’s all-time top scorer in the history of the tournament.

Ronaldo’s achievement came just one day after Messi also made history by becoming the outright leading scorer in World Cup history, reaching 18 goals after scoring twice in Argentina’s 2-0 victory over Austria.

With his appearance at the 2026 World Cup, Cristiano Ronaldo has also extended another remarkable record by becoming the first player to participate in six consecutive editions of the tournament, further cementing his legacy as one of the most influential players in football history.

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International

Mbappé Ties Klose on All-Time World Cup Scoring List After Brace Against Iraq

Kylian Mbappé moved another step closer to World Cup history on Monday, scoring twice against Iraq to reach 16 career goals in the tournament and draw level with German legend Miroslav Klose on the all-time scoring chart.

The French forward found the net in the 14th and 54th minutes of France’s Group I clash in Philadelphia, registering his second consecutive brace of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Mbappé’s achievement came on the same day that Argentina captain Lionel Messi set a new all-time World Cup scoring record. The Argentine star scored twice against Austria to raise his career total to 18 goals, surpassing the previous mark of 16 held by Klose.

Klose established his record on July 8, 2014, during Germany’s historic 7-1 victory over Brazil in the World Cup semifinals in Belo Horizonte.

Before facing Iraq, Mbappé was tied with German striker Gerd Müller on 14 World Cup goals. His first goal of the match lifted him to 15, drawing level with Brazilian great Ronaldo Nazário.

The second strike moved the Real Madrid forward to 16 goals, allowing him to surpass Ronaldo, match Klose’s tally, and position himself just two goals behind Messi in the race for World Cup immortality.

The match also marked a personal milestone for Mbappé, as he made his 100th appearance for the French national team.

At 27 years old, the French superstar remains firmly in pursuit of Messi’s newly established record and continues to strengthen his legacy as one of the most prolific scorers in World Cup history.

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