International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
U.S. Issues Urgent Evacuation Call for Citizens in Venezuela
The U.S. Department of State on Saturday urged American citizens currently in Venezuela to leave the country “immediately,” citing an increasingly unstable security situation.
In a security alert, the State Department warned of reports involving armed militia groups, known as colectivos, that have set up checkpoints and are stopping vehicles to search for evidence of U.S. citizenship or support for the United States.
The warning comes one week after U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s ousted president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, during a bombing operation in Caracas. Both were transferred to New York to face trial on narcotics trafficking charges.
U.S. authorities emphasized that the volatile security environment poses significant risks to American nationals and reiterated their long-standing advisory against travel to Venezuela.
International
U.S. strike in Caracas killed 32 cuban security officers, experts say surprise was crucial
Two days after a U.S. military attack on a military complex in Caracas, Havana confirmed that 32 members of its security forces were killed in the operation, some of whom were likely responsible for protecting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The Venezuelan government also reported that 23 of its own military personnel died during the assault.
Of the Cuban dead, 21 belonged to the Ministry of the Interior, which oversees intelligence services, and 11 were from the Revolutionary Armed Forces. No official information has been released regarding potential injuries.
Experts consulted by AFP agreed that the element of surprise was the key to the success of the U.S. military operation, which was meticulously prepared over months and kept entirely secret. “Cuban intelligence … convinced the Maduro regime and its security agencies that the United States would never attack Venezuelan territory,” explained José Gustavo Arocha, a former Venezuelan army officer and expert at the Center for a Secure Free Society, a U.S. defense think tank.
Fulton Armstrong, a former U.S. intelligence officer and Latin America researcher at American University in Washington, also highlighted the failure to anticipate the attack and to detect U.S. helicopters entering Venezuelan airspace, noting that even a five- to ten-minute warning could have made a significant difference for the guards and for Maduro.
U.S. forces additionally benefited from “incredible” real-time intelligence provided by stealth drones to monitor movements of the Venezuelan leader, according to experts. A highly sophisticated combat team was deployed, and analysts believe the order to “fire to kill” was likely given.
Paul Hare, former British ambassador to Cuba and Venezuela, added that Cuban intelligence also underestimated the extent of U.S. access to internal cooperation within Venezuela’s security apparatus, contributing to the operation’s success.
International
Report: Vatican mediation included russian asylum offer ahead of Maduro’s capture
The Vatican reportedly attempted to negotiate an offer of asylum in Russia for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro before his capture by U.S. forces last Saturday, according to The Washington Post.
The U.S. newspaper reported that Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin spoke with U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See Brian Burch about a supposed Russian proposal to grant Maduro asylum. A source familiar with the offer said that what was proposed “was that he would leave and be able to enjoy his money,” and that part of the plan involved Russian President Vladimir Putin guaranteeing Maduro’s security.
Despite these diplomatic efforts, the United States carried out a military operation that resulted in Maduro’s capture and detention, along with his wife Cilia Flores, who are now being held in New York on narcoterrorism charges.
The Washington Post also noted that U.S. President Donald Trump may have invited Maduro to Washington for in-person discussions about safe conduct, an offer that Maduro reportedly declined.
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