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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

Paraguay launches dengue vaccination for children in high-risk areas

Dengue fever, transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, remains a persistent threat in tropical and subtropical countries such as Paraguay, where it claimed the lives of 132 people among nearly 100,000 infections during the 2023–2024 Southern Hemisphere summer, according to official data. However, that figure was lower than the record set in the 2012–2013 season, when 252 deaths were reported among roughly 130,000 infections.

“Today marks a very important step toward protecting our children and bringing peace of mind to families,” Paraguay’s Minister of Health, María Teresa Barán Wasilchuk, said in a speech on Wednesday.

The vaccine will be administered to children between 6 and 8 years old in municipalities with the highest incidence of dengue cases in the past five years. Authorities will use TAK-003 (Qdenga), developed by Takeda—one of Japan’s largest pharmaceutical companies—which was approved by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2024.

“We celebrate this step, which positions Paraguay as a country with one of the most robust immunization programs,” said Héctor Castro, director of the Acosta Ñu Pediatric Hospital. “We will work tirelessly to ensure this government decision becomes a success in the fight against this scourge.”

Vaccinating children against dengue “is not only a historic and public health milestone, but also a humanitarian one,” Castro added during remarks delivered at the hospital in San Lorenzo, near the capital, Asunción.

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International

President Paz dismisses Vidovic Over 2015 corruption sentence

Justice Minister Freddy Vidovic took office on November 9 after taking the oath of peace for a five-year term. However, his tenure was short-lived: he was removed from the position on Thursday after a past criminal conviction came to light.

In 2015, Vidovic was sentenced to three years in prison for bribery in favor of Peruvian businessman Martín Belaúnde, a former adviser to ex-president Ollanta Humala. Belaúnde was captured in Bolivia ten years ago and handed over to Peruvian authorities, who sought him for alleged involvement in a corruption case that also implicated Humala, who later served time for corruption charges.

At the time, Vidovic was part of Belaúnde’s legal defense team. He was accused of assisting the former presidential adviser in a failed attempt to escape while in Bolivia.

Following the revelation of the conviction, President Paz dismissed Vidovic and appointed Jorge Franz García as the new Justice Minister, according to the decree published on Thursday.

On Wednesday night, Government Minister Marco Antonio Oviedo confirmed the three-year sentence against Vidovic, noting that this background meant he “could not hold public office.”

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Before his dismissal was made public, Vidovic acknowledged on his Facebook account that he had been convicted, but claimed he had been a victim of “kidnapping and torture” and argued that the ruling was “invalid and tainted.”

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International

International organizations push for expanded kidney transplant access in SICA region

A group of international organizations held a high-level meeting in Antigua Guatemala, Guatemala, to address transplantation as a key component in the comprehensive management of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in the countries of the Central American Integration System (SICA).

The meeting was organized by Spain’s National Transplant Organization (ONT), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), and the Executive Secretariat of the Council of Ministers of Health of Central America and the Dominican Republic (SECOMISCA). It was conducted within the framework of the Triangular Cooperation Program of the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) and endorsed by the Ibero-American Donation and Transplant Network/Council (RCIDT).

The purpose of the gathering was to promote kidney transplantation as a priority option for renal replacement therapy, given its superior cost-effectiveness and health outcomes compared with dialysis.

According to a joint press release, the participating organizations also sought to encourage political commitment to advance equitable access to kidney transplantation and to identify common priorities for regional cooperation.

During the event, institutions presented the current status of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) and access to kidney transplantation in SICA countries, as well as the 2019–2030 Regional Donation and Transplant Strategy (CD 57R11). The meeting also facilitated a regional political dialogue aimed at incorporating transplantation into the comprehensive management of CKD, with the goal of generating recommendations to ensure equitable and progressive access to renal replacement therapies.

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Additionally, the organizations explored opportunities to improve CKD registry systems, including transplantation data.

The meeting was convened in response to the growing burden of Chronic Kidney Disease across the World Health Organization (WHO) regions.

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