International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

Trump orders U.S. control of Strait of Hormuz after failed Iran talks

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the United States will take control of the Strait of Hormuz“effective immediately,” following the collapse of negotiations with Iran held in Islamabad.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had ordered the U.S. Navy to block vessels attempting to enter or exit the strategic waterway, a key route for global energy trade.

“The meeting went well, agreement was reached on most points, but the only really important one — nuclear weapons — was not approved,” Trump said, referring to the talks with Iranian representatives.

The president also stated that he had instructed authorities to intercept ships in international waters that had paid tolls to Iran to transit the strait, calling such payments “illegal.” He further accused Tehran of hindering an agreement by deploying mines in the area, describing the move as “international extortion.”

Trump added that the United States will undertake efforts to clear mines from the strait and expressed confidence that a future agreement ensuring free navigation could eventually be reached.

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The announcement came after Vice President JD Vance and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner briefed the president on the outcome of the negotiations, considered the highest-level contacts between the two countries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

While Trump acknowledged that enough progress had been made to maintain a temporary truce, he criticized Iran for remaining unwilling to abandon its nuclear ambitions, calling its position “very inflexible” on the central issue.

International

Child Found Malnourished in Van in France; Father Admits Confinement

French gendarmes discovered a child in a van in Hagenbach, in northeastern France, after a neighbor reported hearing what she described as “childlike noises” coming from the parked vehicle.

After unlocking the van, officers found the boy lying in a fetal position, unclothed and covered with a blanket, surrounded by garbage and near human waste, according to a statement from the Mulhouse prosecutor, Nicolas Heitz.

Authorities said the child appeared pale and severely malnourished. Due to prolonged confinement in a seated position, he was no longer able to walk. He was immediately taken to a hospital in Mulhouse for medical care.

The boy’s father, who lived with his partner and two daughters aged 10 and 12, admitted to keeping the child confined and depriving him of proper care.

According to the prosecutor, the man said he placed the child in the van in November 2024, claiming he wanted to “protect him” because his partner intended to have the boy admitted to a psychiatric facility.

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The suspect also stated that he allowed the child out of the vehicle in May 2025 and permitted him to enter the family apartment around mid-year, when the rest of the family was on vacation.

The man’s partner—who is not the child’s mother—also faces charges, including failure to report abuse. However, she has denied all accusations.

International

Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Risk Amid Hormuz Disruption

The Airports Council International Europe has warned of a potential “systemic shortage” of jet fuel if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored within the next three weeks, according to a letter reviewed by AFP on Friday.

In the document, addressed to the European Commission and first reported by the Financial Times, the European airport lobby stated that a “systemic jet fuel shortage will become a reality” in the European Union unless stable and significant transit through the strait resumes soon.

The association, which represents around 600 airports across 50 countries, called on Brussels to implement “urgent monitoring of fuel availability and supply” over the next six months.

Jet fuel prices have surged amid the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transport.

The conflict escalated on February 28 following joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran.

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In response, Tehran imposed several countermeasures, including blocking maritime traffic through the strait, a route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil, jet fuel, and gas supply passes.