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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

WMO predicts 55% chance of weakened La Niña impacting global weather this winter

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on Thursday that there is a 55% chance that the La Niña phenomenon, typically associated with cooler temperatures, will affect global weather between December and February, though in a weakened form.

In its update released Thursday, the WMO clarified that while La Niña is usually linked to a temporary drop in average global temperatures, some regions could still experience warmer-than-normal conditions.

As 2026 progresses, the WMO expects the planet to shift toward neutral conditions, neither influenced by La Niña nor by its opposite, El Niño, which is associated with increased temperatures. The likelihood of neutral conditions is expected to rise to 75% between February and April, according to the agency’s regular bulletin on these phenomena.

La Niña occurs due to cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters and is also linked to changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, including wind and rainfall patterns. The opposite phenomenon, El Niño, has not been observed by experts since 2024, which currently remains the warmest year on record.

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International

Spain’s PSOE summons Mark Zuckerberg over alleged mass surveillance on Android users

The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) requested on Wednesday that the Congress of Deputies summon Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, to explain the alleged mass surveillance of Facebook and Instagram users via Android devices without consent.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had previously indicated that his party would demand answers from the tech company’s executives for allegedly tracking the web activity of millions of people in Spain and across Europe without authorization. Meta responded in a statement to EFE, saying it is willing to “cooperate constructively with authorities on this matter.”

In addition to Zuckerberg, the PSOE has also requested the appearance of Javier Oliván, Meta’s Chief Operating Officer, and José Luis Zimmermann, Director of Public Affairs for Spain and Portugal. The socialists expect them to appear before the Congress’ Committee on Economy, Trade, and Digital Transformation, alongside independent experts.

The investigation is based on findings from European academic institutions such as IMDEA Networks (Spain), the Catholic University of Leuven (Belgium), and Radboud University (Netherlands). These studies revealed that Meta implemented a hidden mechanism to track users’ browsing activities through its apps—even in incognito mode or when using virtual private networks (VPNs).

“In Spain, the law is above any algorithm or tech giant, and those who violate our rights will face consequences,” warned Prime Minister Sánchez.

According to the technical report, the system reportedly operated for nearly a year and allowed web activity to be directly linked to users’ personal profiles on Facebook and Instagram. The PSOE described these practices as “silent espionage without any explicit consent.”

If confirmed, Meta would have violated key European Union regulations, including the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the ePrivacy Directive, the Digital Services Act (DSA), and the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The tech giant is already facing class-action lawsuits in Germany, the United States, and Canada for similar cases.

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International

New York Times sues Pentagon over new press restrictions, citing First Amendment violations

The New York Times announced on Thursday that it has filed a lawsuit against the Pentagon over new restrictions imposed on the press when reporting on the U.S. military.

The newspaper stated on its website that the Pentagon’s policy is “exactly the type of restrictive scheme on freedom of speech and the press” that the Supreme Court and the D.C. Circuit Court have recognized as violating the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. The First Amendment protects fundamental rights such as freedom of the press and expression.

On October 16, the deadline to accept the new rules, major U.S. media outlets—including journalists with more than thirty years of experience as Pentagon correspondents—returned their credentials in protest.

The lawsuit, filed by the NYT in the U.S. District Court in Washington, argues that the purpose of the policy is “to shut the doors of the Pentagon—areas that have historically been open to the press—to news organizations, like the plaintiffs, that investigate and report without fear or favoritism on the department’s actions and leadership.”

The newspaper is requesting that the court issue an injunction preventing the Pentagon from enforcing the press policy, along with a declaration that the provisions restricting First Amendment rights are unlawful.

The NYT noted that Pentagon officials have said that access to military facilities is a privilege subject to regulation, and that the new guidelines aim “to prevent leaks that could harm operational security and national safety.”

This past Tuesday, during the first press briefing held by the Pentagon since restricting access for most accredited national and international media following near-universal rejection of the new rules, influencers, bloggers, and reporters from so-called “new media” occupied the press room.

Several of the newly accredited journalists, such as Lance Johnston of the right-wing organization Fearless Media, boasted on social media that the desks “now belonged” to them—desks that had been used for decades by representatives of outlets like The Washington Post, The New York Times, and CNN.

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