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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

Rush for Air Conditioners Sparks Tensions at French Supermarkets Ahead of New Heatwave

Scenes of long lines, overcrowded stores and customer disputes unfolded across France on Thursday as shoppers rushed to buy air conditioners and fans ahead of another expected heatwave.

The buying frenzy comes as the country continues to recover from last week’s extreme temperatures, which exceeded 40°C (104°F) in several areas and produced the warmest night on record, with an average temperature of 22°C (71.6°F). Authorities have linked the heatwave to at least 1,000 excess deaths.

Demand for cooling appliances has surged in recent days, prompting heavy traffic at appliance retailers. The situation intensified on Thursday when German discount supermarket chain Lidl launched a promotion on portable air conditioners and electric fans.

Videos shared on social media showed large crowds gathering outside stores, with customers pushing and rushing to secure the discounted products.

“Lidl France regrets the incidents that occurred in its stores,” the company told AFP, adding that employees were forced to manage tense situations in what it described as a challenging environment.

Outside a Lidl store in northwestern Paris, dozens of customers began lining up as early as 7:00 a.m., two hours before opening, while police monitored the crowd, according to an AFP journalist at the scene.

Although many shoppers remained in good spirits, tensions escalated as some people attempted to cut in line. “I will not open the store until they leave,” a store manager reportedly shouted as frustrated customers protested.

The situation worsened after customers discovered that the store, located in a working-class district of Paris, had only two air conditioning units available for sale.

One of the successful buyers, Lassana, who declined to provide his last name, said he had queued since 4:00 a.m. to secure one of the units.

Another customer, 69-year-old Fatou, was only able to purchase a small fan after what he described as a struggle. He criticized Lidl’s advertising as “misleading,” claiming police had temporarily closed access to the store because of the crowds.

Lidl France attributed the shortages to its fixed annual purchasing cycle, explaining that the promotional products had been ordered a year in advance and were offered at predetermined prices, limiting the available stock.

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International

Peru Expands Emergency Measures Ahead of Heavy El Niño Rains

Peru has declared a state of emergency in 796 districts across 22 regions due to the imminent threat of heavy rainfall linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon, the government announced on Thursday.

El Niño, which causes unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, disrupts global wind and rainfall patterns, often triggering extreme weather events. In Peru, the phenomenon has already driven temperatures up to 26 degrees Celsius, around five degrees above the seasonal average.

According to Peru’s National Center for Disaster Risk Estimation, Prevention and Reduction (Cenepred), more than 9.3 million people are at very high risk of flooding and landslides associated with El Niño.

Interim President José María Balcázar signed a decree extending an emergency measure that has been in effect since January, allowing authorities to implement immediate response and recovery actions in affected areas.

Under the decree, regional and local governments, working alongside Civil Defense and supported by national ministries, are authorized to take extraordinary measures to protect communities and critical infrastructure from the expected impacts of heavy rainfall.

“We have declared a state of emergency in 796 districts across 22 regions due to intense rainfall associated with the El Niño phenomenon for a period of 60 days,” the Presidency of the Council of Ministers said in a statement.

Peru is divided into approximately 1,800 municipalities.

The country’s agency responsible for monitoring El Niño recently upgraded its forecast for the phenomenon from moderate to strong for the period between June and September, with conditions expected to persist through the first quarter of 2027.

Scientists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimate there is a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between November and January, potentially making it one of the most intense events recorded since 1950.

Peru last experienced El Niño in 2023, when flooding and landslides claimed 99 lives.

The country’s most devastating El Niño events occurred in 1997-1998, leaving around 500 people dead and reducing gross domestic product (GDP) by 6%, and in 1982-1983, when approximately 9,000 people died and the economy contracted by 11.6%.

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International

Three Die During World Cup Celebrations in Mexico City After Mexico’s Victory

Three people died in Mexico City while celebrating Mexico’s 2-0 victory over Ecuador at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, local authorities confirmed on Wednesday.

According to the city’s Health Secretariat, the victims—a 44-year-old man, a 48-year-old woman, and a 19-year-old woman—died from asphyxiation following the post-match celebrations.

Emergency services were dispatched to the Juárez district after reports that three people had lost consciousness shortly after Tuesday night’s match.

Paramedics, firefighters, and police officers responded to the scene, where the victims received first aid and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) before being transported to a hospital for specialized medical care. Despite the efforts of medical personnel, all three were later pronounced dead.

“We are in contact with their families to provide all the support they need,” Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada Molinasaid in a statement posted on social media.

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“With my hand on my heart, I extend my deepest condolences to their loved ones. We once again call on everyone to celebrate with responsibility, care, and empathy,” she added.

Mexico’s victory over Ecuador sparked massive celebrations at the Estadio Azteca and across the capital. Goals from Raúl Jiménez and Julián Quiñones secured the hosts’ place in the Round of 16, where they are set to face either England or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, who meet on Wednesday in Atlanta.

Should Mexico advance to the quarterfinals, the team would face either Brazil, coached by Carlo Ancelotti, or Norway.

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