International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Chile enters runoff campaign with Kast leading and Jara seeking a last-minute comeback
Chile’s presidential runoff campaign for the December 14 election kicked off this Sunday, with far-right candidate José Antonio Kast entering the race as the clear favorite in the polls, while left-wing contender Jeannette Jara faces an uphill scenario, hoping for a comeback that some experts describe as “a miracle.”
The final polls released in Chile—published before the mandatory blackout on survey dissemination—give Kast, an ultraconservative former lawmaker running for president for the third time, a lead of between 12 and 16 points. His opponent, the communist former minister in Gabriel Boric’s current administration, is weighed down not only by the government’s low approval ratings but also by a fragmented electorate.
Although Jeannette Jara received the most votes in the first round with 26.9%, her lack of alliances beyond the left makes it difficult for her to expand her support. Kast, who secured 23.9%, has already brought key figures on board: ultralibertarian Johannes Kaiser (13.9%) and traditional right-wing leader Evelyn Matthei (12.4%), both now backing his candidacy.
Analysts note that although Kast’s support base consolidates more than 50% of the electorate, it does not guarantee an automatic transfer of votes. Populist economist Franco Parisi, who placed third with 19.7%, emerges as the major wildcard. His party, the People’s Party (PDG), is set to decide this Sunday through an internal consultation whether to endorse one of the two finalists.
International
Trump says asylum decision freeze will remain in place “for a long time”
U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that the suspension of decisions on asylum applications—implemented as part of his order to “halt” immigration from third-world countries following Wednesday’s shooting in Washington—will remain in effect “for a long time.”
The president declined to specify how long the freeze, imposed last Friday by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), would last. The suspension affects individuals waiting for an asylum ruling from that agency, though it does not apply to cases handled by U.S. immigration courts.
The delay is part of a series of measures enacted by the Trump Administration after a shooting on Wednesday in which an Afghan national allegedly opened fire on the National Guard in Washington, D.C., killing one officer and leaving another in critical condition.
Trump has ordered a permanent halt to immigration from 19 countries classified as “third-world.” He also indicated on Sunday that “possibly” more nations could be added to the list.
“These are countries with high crime rates. They are countries that do not function well… that are not known for success, and frankly, we don’t need people from those places coming into our country and telling us what to do,” Trump said, adding: “We don’t want those people.”
USCIS had already announced on Thursday a “rigorous review” of green cards held by migrants from 19 “countries of concern,” including Afghanistan, Cuba, Venezuela, and Haiti.
International
Sri Lanka and Indonesia deploy military as deadly asian floods kill over 1,000
Sri Lanka and Indonesia deployed military personnel on Monday to assist victims of the devastating floods that have killed more than a thousand people across Asia in recent days.
A series of weather events last week triggered prolonged torrential rains across Sri Lanka, parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra island, southern Thailand, and northern Malaysia. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said Monday in North Sumatra that “the priority now is to deliver the necessary aid as quickly as possible.”
“There are several isolated villages that, with God’s help, we will be able to reach,” he added. Subianto also stated that the government had deployed helicopters and aircraft to support relief operations.
Floods and landslides have claimed 502 lives in Indonesia, with a similar number still missing.
This marks the highest death toll from a natural disaster in Indonesia since 2018, when an earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed more than 2,000 people.
The government has sent three military ships carrying aid and two hospital vessels to the hardest-hit regions, where many roads remain impassable.
In the village of Sungai Nyalo, located about 100 kilometers from Padang, the capital of West Sumatra, floodwaters had receded by Sunday, leaving homes, vehicles, and crops coated in thick mud.
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