International

Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

International

German president says trust in U.S. leadership is ‘lost’ amid global tensions

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Tuesday that trust between the United States and its Western allies has been “lost,” warning that the damage could persist beyond the presidency of Donald Trump.

“The rupture is very deep, and the loss of trust in U.S. great power policy is significant—not only among its allies, but also, as I observe, globally,” Steinmeier said during a speech in Berlin marking the 75th anniversary of Germany’s Foreign Ministry.

Referring to the future of transatlantic relations, he stated that “there is no return to the situation before January 20, 2025,” the date marking the start of Trump’s second term in the White House.

“Even a future U.S. administration will no longer be able to resume the role of a benevolent hegemon guaranteeing a liberal international order,” added Steinmeier, who previously served as Germany’s foreign minister.

He also criticized the war against Iran, describing it as “contrary to international law” and calling it “a political mistake with serious consequences.”

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“This war is avoidable and unnecessary,” he said.

Although the German presidency is largely ceremonial, Steinmeier’s remarks reflect a broader concern within Germany, aligning with the government’s cautious stance while going further in tone.

International

Trump claims talks with Iran as G7 meets to address global tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States has held talks with Iran—a claim denied by Tehran—and has temporarily paused his threat to target the country’s electrical infrastructure.

In his first overseas trip since the United States and Israel launched their offensive on February 28, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to address key global issues, including the situation in the Middle East, according to State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott.

Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven will meet in Cernay-la-Ville, close to Versailles, on the outskirts of Paris.

During the meeting, Rubio will hold discussions with his counterparts on “the war between Russia and Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and threats to global peace and stability,” Pigott said.

France currently holds the presidency of the G7, whose members also include the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Japan.

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Although all G7 nations are close allies of the United States, none has offered explicit support for Washington’s military actions against Iran, a stance that has reportedly frustrated Trump.

Last Saturday, G7 foreign ministers called for an “immediate and unconditional end” to Iranian attacks against U.S. allies in the Middle East.

International

Pentagon to deploy 3,000 troops to Persian Gulf as Middle East tensions escalate

The Pentagon is planning to deploy nearly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Persian Gulf, according to two senior officials cited Tuesday by Spanish newspaper El País.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah warned it would confront any attempt at occupation following Israel’s announcement that its military will take control of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, located about 30 kilometers from the border.

In recent hours, the Israel Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on Beirut, while Iran and Hezbollah responded with attacks on Israel, leaving at least six people with minor injuries in Tel Aviv.

The escalation comes as global markets react to renewed instability. The price of oil rose again above $100 per barrel after a brief decline the previous day, following an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of a five-day truce on attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Despite the announcement, Iranian authorities reported that two projectiles struck a gas pipeline in Khorramshahr and administrative buildings at a gas facility in Isfahan early Tuesday.