International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Tensions Escalate in Middle East as U.S. Bombs Iran After Maritime Attacks
The United States launched new strikes against Iran on Wednesday, following President Donald Trump’s warning that Washington would “hit hard” against the Islamic Republic. While Trump ordered the retaliation after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, he also said he hoped the latest wave of bombings would end soon and left the door open for renewed negotiations.
U.S. forces “have begun carrying out additional strikes against Iran to further reduce its ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” the United States Central Command said in a post on X.
Washington blamed Iran for what it described as “recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping.”
Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported that explosions were heard in the port cities of Bandar Abbas, Konarak, and Chabahar.
“This is in retaliation for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will be much worse,” Trump wrote on social media alongside an image showing what appeared to be a bombing at an Iranian location.
Before ordering the strikes, the U.S. president said that the ceasefire with Iran had ended. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar called for de-escalation, while the United Nations also urged both sides to reduce tensions.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint in the Middle East conflict, which began in late February after U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran-linked attacks on at least three vessels in recent days triggered a U.S. offensive against Iranian targets on Tuesday. Tehran responded by launching attacks against Gulf countries that are allies of Washington.
International
Deadly Drug Trade Rivalry Suspected After Eight Bodies Discovered in Southern Mexico
Eight bodies were found Wednesday along a highway in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, near the border with Guatemala, in an incident authorities believe may be linked to a dispute over local drug sales.
The victims — six men and two women — were found abandoned on a road in a mountainous area of the municipality of El Bosque, according to the state prosecutor’s office in a statement published on Facebook.
Initial investigations indicate that the killings may be connected to “a dispute over retail drug sales between local criminal groups operating in the region,” the prosecutor’s office said.
Local media reports that several criminal incidents have increased in the area since the beginning of the year.
The road where the bodies were discovered is located in a mountainous region largely inhabited by Indigenous communities. Authorities have not released further details about the victims or possible suspects as the investigation continues.
Central America
Regional Naval Operations Strike Drug Cartels, Disrupting Cocaine and Weapons Trafficking Routes
Transnational operations carried out by regional naval forces, including El Salvador’s National Navy, the United States Coast Guard, and Mexico’s Secretariat of the Navy (SEMAR), have dealt significant blows to international drug trafficking organizations.
The operations have not only led to the seizure of massive cocaine shipments, such as the 6.68 metric tons of cocaine valued at approximately $167 million presented last Wednesday by El Salvador’s Security Cabinet, but have also resulted in the confiscation of high-powered weapons allegedly intended as payment to criminal organizations, according to Security Minister Gustavo Villatoro.
“Based on the strength of the data, not just the narratives, we can state that our National Navy has documented the only known operation in the Pacific Ocean in which a criminal organization from the south was transporting drugs and exchanging them with a group from the north for firearms,” Villatoro said.
The exchange of weapons for drugs between criminal groups in the Pacific Ocean represents a logistical method in which South American cartels from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador negotiate with Mexican and Central American organizations to trade military-grade weapons for cocaine shipments.
Regional naval authorities have identified that meeting points located farther from the coastline in international waters make it easier for armed groups to receive supplies and carry out exchanges undetected. As a result, El Salvador’s National Navy deploys teams from the Trident Naval Task Force (FTNT) aboard maritime patrol vessels to intercept these operations.
Initially, the patrol units are ordered to travel up to 200 nautical miles offshore, but later receive instructions from the Maritime Operations Center to extend their missions beyond 1,000 nautical miles, reaching coordinates used by drug trafficking vessels operating in the open sea.
“We cannot lose focus on the routes these criminal organizations use to move drugs,” Minister Villatoro said, emphasizing the importance of maintaining surveillance over the various maritime corridors used for narcotics trafficking.
Tensions Escalate in Middle East as U.S. Bombs Iran After Maritime Attacks
Deadly Drug Trade Rivalry Suspected After Eight Bodies Discovered in Southern Mexico
Regional Naval Operations Strike Drug Cartels, Disrupting Cocaine and Weapons Trafficking Routes
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