International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Washington declares State of Emergency as atmospheric river brings severe flooding
Washington Governor Bob Ferguson declared a state of emergency on Wednesday in response to severe flooding affecting several counties, where more than 75,000 people remain under evacuation alerts following heavy rainfall that has caused significant water accumulation.
An atmospheric river has battered the state since Monday, dropping several centimeters of rain and threatening serious flooding in communities near major rivers. More precipitation is expected in the coming days, and the National Weather Service (NWS) has forecast between 15 and 20 centimeters of rain from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon in communities along the far western region, worsening the emergency.
Rainfall totals in higher elevations near the Canadian border could exceed 20 centimeters, further increasing the risk.
“Lives will be at stake in the coming days,” Ferguson warned during a press conference.
The governor underscored the severity of the situation and said he will request an expedited federal disaster declaration from President Donald Trump’s administration to access additional resources for the emergency response.
“I want to urge all Washington residents to pay close attention to alerts from their counties and emergency management departments. If you receive an evacuation order, please follow it,” he added.
Most rivers from the Canadian border down to southwestern Washington are in flood stage. Several are expected to reach record levels, including the Skagit River, which could exceed its 1990 flood peak when water levels rose 1.2 meters.
Around 75,000 people are at risk of flooding in Skagit County, where authorities continue to maintain an evacuation watch.
The Washington National Guard and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have been activated to assist with evacuations and response efforts in rural areas affected by flooding.
International
U.S. to require five-year social media history from tourists under Visa Waiver Program
Tourists from 42 countries covered by the U.S. Visa Waiver Program would be required to provide their social media history from the past five years in order to enter the United States, according to a new proposal released Wednesday by the administration of President Donald Trump.
The initiative, led by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), aims to more thoroughly review the activity of travelers entering the country through the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA). When asked about the plan’s potential impact on tourism, Trump insisted that the United States is “doing very well.”
“We just want people to come here and be safe… We want to make sure we’re not letting the wrong people into our country,” the president said during a press conference at the White House.
The proposal, published in the Federal Register, seeks to expand the information collected from visitors entering the U.S. for up to three months under the visa waiver program.
ESTA applies to travelers from 42 countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, New Zealand, Australia, France, Japan, Israel and Qatar.
In addition to requiring a five-year social media history, the plan would increase the amount of personal data requested, such as phone numbers and email addresses used over the past ten years. It also calls for family details, including names, dates of birth and places of birth of the traveler’s relatives.
The proposal further includes a new mobile tool that would allow any foreign visitor to record their departure from the United States.
International
Six ecuadorian soldiers jailed pending trial for alleged extrajudicial execution
Six Ecuadorian soldiers were placed in pre-trial detention on Wednesday by a civilian court over an alleged extrajudicial execution, the Attorney General’s Office reported.
As part of his war on drug trafficking, President Daniel Noboa declared an internal armed conflict in 2024 and deployed the Armed Forces to the streets. Human rights organizations have since denounced military abuses and a rise in disappearances attributed to state agents.
A judge in the coastal province of Santa Elena ordered pre-trial detention for six soldiers for alleged extrajudicial execution, the prosecution stated on X. It added that the troops, now under investigation for the suspected crime, were in charge of an operation in the resort town of Salinas, during which one of the detainees died.
In a separate case involving alleged abuse of authority, a group of 17 soldiers is currently on trial for the forced disappearance of four minors whose bodies were found burned near an Ecuadorian Air Force (FAE) base.
In December 2024, Saúl Arboleda, Steven Medina, and brothers Josué and Ismael Arroyo — aged 11 to 15 — were detained by a military patrol in southern Guayaquil.
According to Amnesty International, Ecuador’s Prosecutor’s Office has received reports of at least 43 possible cases of forced disappearance since 2023, the year Noboa took office pledging a tough stance against organized crime.
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