International

Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN

Photo: Acnur

| By AFP | Patrick Galey |

Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.

The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.

The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.

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A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.

It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030.

Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added.

“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.

“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”

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The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans.

To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.

Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.

UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature.

Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said.

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All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C.

‘Missed opportunity’

UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C.

But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.

“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff.

“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”

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Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.

But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.

For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.

‘Avoid as much damage as possible’

Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects.

UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.

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It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.

“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message.

Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term.

Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.

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But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible.

“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said.

“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”

International

Mexican Navy Ships Deliver Third Shipment of Humanitarian Aid to Cuba

Two logistics support vessels from the Mexican Navy — the ARM Papaloapan and the ARM Huasteco — docked again on Friday in the bay of Havana carrying a third shipment of humanitarian aid for Cuba.

The vessels had previously arrived on the Caribbean island on February 28 with a second cargo that included 1,200 tons of food, sent to help alleviate the country’s ongoing crisis, which has worsened following the U.S. oil restrictions affecting fuel supplies to the island.

Cuba’s deputy foreign minister Josefina Vidal confirmed the new shipment in a social media post.

“Two ships carrying a third shipment of aid from the Government and the people of Mexico for the Cuban people are now arriving at the port of Havana. Thank you Mexico for your solidarity with Cuba,” she wrote.

Previous aid shipments

During the second shipment, the Papaloapan transported 1,078 tons of beans and powdered milk, while the Huastecocarried 92 tons of beans and 23 tons of assorted food products collected by social organizations with support from the government of Mexico City.

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In recent months, Mexico has become the largest provider of humanitarian aid to Cuba, sending around 2,000 tons of supplies, mostly staple foods and hygiene products, in the two shipments prior to Friday’s delivery.

The first shipment alone included 814 tons of food.

Cuba praises Mexico’s support

Hours before the ships arrived, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel highlighted Mexico’s support during a televised appearance, describing the country as “a friendly and brotherly nation that has shown tremendous solidarity,”particularly praising Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Díaz-Canel also addressed reports suggesting that Mexican donations were being resold in state-run stores, dismissing them as a “disinformation campaign” promoted by right-wing groups.

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International

Ecuador Declares 60-Day National Emergency After Deadly Floods and Landslides

Ecuador has declared a 60-day national emergency to address the impact of a severe rainy season that has left 11 people dead and more than 50,000 affected since January, the government’s disaster management authority announced Friday.

Prolonged heavy rains accompanied by thunderstorms have caused river overflows and landslides, mainly in the coastal provinces of Guayas, El Oro, Esmeraldas, Los Ríos, Manabí and Santa Elena, as well as in the Andean provinces of Lojaand Chimborazo.

According to the Secretariat for Risk Management of Ecuador, the emergency declaration was issued “due to the level of impact caused nationwide on the population, the road network, infrastructure, and livelihoods.”

“The emergency declaration is aimed at responding to the effects and negative impacts and preventing their further spread,” the agency said in a statement.

International

Trump Pushes for Regime Change in Cuba as Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire for political change in Cuba, located just 150 kilometers from the United States. Washington considers the island an “exceptional threat,” citing its close ties with Russia, Chinaand Iran, longtime allies of Havana.

Trump has urged Cuba to “reach a deal” with Washington or face consequences, as the island struggles with a severe energy crisis that has nearly paralyzed its economy after the United States cut oil shipments from Venezuela, its main fuel supplier. The U.S. has also warned other countries against selling fuel to Havana.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuban officials have recently held talks with representatives of the U.S. government. The statement came during a meeting with senior members of the ruling Communist Party of Cuba and the executive committee of the Council of Ministers, according to footage broadcast on Cuban television.

“These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that exist between our two nations,” Díaz-Canel said.

Reports of intermediaries and possible negotiations

According to television images, among those attending the meeting was Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Although he holds no official government position, U.S. media have identified him as a possible interlocutor with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in what have been described as secret discussions between Washington and Havana.

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For some Cubans, any potential agreement with Washington is viewed pragmatically. “As long as it benefits us, we can reach an agreement — but on our terms,” said Sergio Guerra, a 55-year-old agricultural vendor, speaking to AFP.

Díaz-Canel’s remarks confirm earlier statements by Trump, who indicated in January that his administration had already begun contacts with senior Cuban officials.

Mexico calls for diplomacy

Meanwhile, Mexico welcomed the possibility of dialogue after recently sending more than 2,000 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba to help mitigate the crisis.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country would always promote peace and diplomatic dialogue, particularly in response to what she described as the long-standing injustice of the U.S. embargo on the Cuban people.