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Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN

Photo: Acnur

| By AFP | Patrick Galey |

Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.

The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.

The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.

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A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.

It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030. 

Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added. 

“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.

“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”

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The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans. 

To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.

Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. 

UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature. 

Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said. 

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All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C. 

‘Missed opportunity’

UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C. 

But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.

“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff. 

“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”

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Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.

But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.  

For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.

‘Avoid as much damage as possible’

Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects. 

UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.

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It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.

“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message. 

Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term. 

Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.

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But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible. 

“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said. 

“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”

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International

Washington declares State of Emergency as atmospheric river brings severe flooding

Washington Governor Bob Ferguson declared a state of emergency on Wednesday in response to severe flooding affecting several counties, where more than 75,000 people remain under evacuation alerts following heavy rainfall that has caused significant water accumulation.

An atmospheric river has battered the state since Monday, dropping several centimeters of rain and threatening serious flooding in communities near major rivers. More precipitation is expected in the coming days, and the National Weather Service (NWS) has forecast between 15 and 20 centimeters of rain from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon in communities along the far western region, worsening the emergency.

Rainfall totals in higher elevations near the Canadian border could exceed 20 centimeters, further increasing the risk.

“Lives will be at stake in the coming days,” Ferguson warned during a press conference.

The governor underscored the severity of the situation and said he will request an expedited federal disaster declaration from President Donald Trump’s administration to access additional resources for the emergency response.

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“I want to urge all Washington residents to pay close attention to alerts from their counties and emergency management departments. If you receive an evacuation order, please follow it,” he added.

Most rivers from the Canadian border down to southwestern Washington are in flood stage. Several are expected to reach record levels, including the Skagit River, which could exceed its 1990 flood peak when water levels rose 1.2 meters.

Around 75,000 people are at risk of flooding in Skagit County, where authorities continue to maintain an evacuation watch.

The Washington National Guard and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have been activated to assist with evacuations and response efforts in rural areas affected by flooding.

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International

U.S. to require five-year social media history from tourists under Visa Waiver Program

Tourists from 42 countries covered by the U.S. Visa Waiver Program would be required to provide their social media history from the past five years in order to enter the United States, according to a new proposal released Wednesday by the administration of President Donald Trump.

The initiative, led by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), aims to more thoroughly review the activity of travelers entering the country through the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA). When asked about the plan’s potential impact on tourism, Trump insisted that the United States is “doing very well.”

“We just want people to come here and be safe… We want to make sure we’re not letting the wrong people into our country,” the president said during a press conference at the White House.

The proposal, published in the Federal Register, seeks to expand the information collected from visitors entering the U.S. for up to three months under the visa waiver program.

ESTA applies to travelers from 42 countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, New Zealand, Australia, France, Japan, Israel and Qatar.

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In addition to requiring a five-year social media history, the plan would increase the amount of personal data requested, such as phone numbers and email addresses used over the past ten years. It also calls for family details, including names, dates of birth and places of birth of the traveler’s relatives.

The proposal further includes a new mobile tool that would allow any foreign visitor to record their departure from the United States.

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International

Six ecuadorian soldiers jailed pending trial for alleged extrajudicial execution

Six Ecuadorian soldiers were placed in pre-trial detention on Wednesday by a civilian court over an alleged extrajudicial execution, the Attorney General’s Office reported.

As part of his war on drug trafficking, President Daniel Noboa declared an internal armed conflict in 2024 and deployed the Armed Forces to the streets. Human rights organizations have since denounced military abuses and a rise in disappearances attributed to state agents.

A judge in the coastal province of Santa Elena ordered pre-trial detention for six soldiers for alleged extrajudicial execution, the prosecution stated on X. It added that the troops, now under investigation for the suspected crime, were in charge of an operation in the resort town of Salinas, during which one of the detainees died.

In a separate case involving alleged abuse of authority, a group of 17 soldiers is currently on trial for the forced disappearance of four minors whose bodies were found burned near an Ecuadorian Air Force (FAE) base.

In December 2024, Saúl Arboleda, Steven Medina, and brothers Josué and Ismael Arroyo — aged 11 to 15 — were detained by a military patrol in southern Guayaquil.

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According to Amnesty International, Ecuador’s Prosecutor’s Office has received reports of at least 43 possible cases of forced disappearance since 2023, the year Noboa took office pledging a tough stance against organized crime.

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