International
Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN
| By AFP | Patrick Galey |
Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.
The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.
The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.
A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.
It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030.
Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added.
“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.
“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”
The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans.
To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.
Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.
UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature.
Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said.
All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C.
‘Missed opportunity’
UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C.
But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.
“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff.
“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”
Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.
But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.
For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.
‘Avoid as much damage as possible’
Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects.
UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.
It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.
“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message.
Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term.
Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.
But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible.
“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said.
“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”
International
Trump Raises Possibility of “Friendly Takeover” of Cuba Amid Deepening Crisis
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, reiterated Monday the possibility that Washington could pursue a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, amid the severe crisis facing the island following the oil blockade promoted by the U.S. government.
Speaking at a press conference in Miami, the president said that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently “negotiating” with representatives of the Cuban government, although authorities in Havana have repeatedly denied that such talks are taking place.
Trump suggested that Washington could play a more direct role in the island’s future.
“It may be a friendly takeover. It may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn’t matter because they’re really down to, as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money. They are in deep trouble on a humanitarian basis, and we really don’t want to see that,” the U.S. president said.
The president also argued that the Cuban government had long depended heavily on support from Venezuela, particularly oil supplies.
According to Trump, that support has been drastically reduced following measures adopted by Washington.
“They were living off Venezuela. Venezuela doesn’t send them energy, fuel, oil, money, or anything anymore. They couldn’t survive without Venezuela, they couldn’t have made it, and we cut everything off,” Trump said.
International
Mexico, Brazil and Colombia left out of Trump’s “Shield of the Americas” summit
Left-wing governments in Latin America, including Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, were excluded from the “Shield of the Americas” summit convened by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The meeting, held in Miami, Florida, brought together 12 presidents from across the continent to discuss strategies to combat drug cartels and organized crime.
In Mexico’s case, President Claudia Sheinbaum had recently rejected the use of military force as a solution to the drug trafficking problem. She has argued that her administration’s security strategy is producing results and emphasized that force alone is not the answer.
During the summit, Trump said that most narcotics entering the United States come through Mexico and referred to his previous conversations with Sheinbaum on the issue.
“I like the president very much, she’s a very good person,” Trump said. “But I told her: ‘Let me eradicate the cartels.’ And she said, ‘No, no, no, please, president.’ We have to eradicate them. We have to finish them.”
The remarks highlighted ongoing differences between Washington and Mexico over how to confront drug trafficking networks operating across the region.
International
Trump announces 17-nation alliance in the Americas to “destroy” drug cartels
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Saturday the creation of a 17-nation alliance across the Americas aimed at dismantling drug cartels, during a regional summit held at his golf club in Doral.
Speaking to a group of allied leaders at the Shield of the Americas Summit, Trump said the initiative would rely on military force to eliminate powerful criminal networks operating throughout the hemisphere.
“The heart of our agreement is the commitment to use lethal military force to destroy these sinister cartels and terrorist networks. Once and for all, we will put an end to them,” Trump told the assembled heads of state.
The Republican leader argued that large portions of territory in the Western Hemisphere have fallen under the control of transnational gangs and pledged U.S. support to governments seeking to confront them. He even suggested the potential use of highly precise missiles against cartel leaders.
Before making the announcement, Trump greeted the roughly twelve leaders attending the summit, including close allies such as Javier Milei, Daniel Noboa and Nayib Bukele, whom he described as a “great president.”
The meeting forms part of Trump’s broader regional strategy inspired by his reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, which seeks to reinforce Washington’s influence in the Americas, strengthen security cooperation and counter the growing presence of powers such as China.
Trump pointed to recent U.S. actions in the region as examples of his administration’s approach, including the operation that led to the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro earlier this year.
The summit also takes place amid escalating international tensions following the conflict launched last week by the United States and Israel against Iran.
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