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Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN

Photo: Acnur

| By AFP | Patrick Galey |

Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.

The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.

The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.

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A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.

It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030. 

Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added. 

“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.

“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”

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The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans. 

To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.

Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. 

UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature. 

Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said. 

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All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C. 

‘Missed opportunity’

UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C. 

But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.

“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff. 

“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”

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Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.

But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.  

For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.

‘Avoid as much damage as possible’

Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects. 

UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.

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It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.

“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message. 

Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term. 

Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.

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But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible. 

“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said. 

“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”

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International

Ukraine declares nationwide energy emergency amid russian attacks and extreme cold

The Ukrainian government on Wednesday declared a nationwide energy state of emergency amid continued Russian military attacks and extreme winter weather, with nighttime temperatures dropping as low as minus 18 degrees Celsius.

“The consequences of Russian attacks and worsening weather conditions are severe (…) Overall, a state of emergency will be declared for Ukraine’s energy sector,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a statement posted on social media following a meeting with senior officials.

Zelensky announced the creation of a “permanent coordination headquarters” to manage the crisis in the capital, Kyiv, and tasked former defence minister and current energy chief Denys Shmyhal with overseeing support efforts for affected individuals and communities, including addressing power outages, heating shortages and other “practical issues.”

“There are many problems that require urgent solutions,” the president said, noting that repair crews, energy companies, municipal services and the State Emergency Service are working “around the clock” to restore electricity supplies. Kyiv has been particularly affected after Russian strikes last Friday disabled key parts of the power grid, as daytime temperatures hover around minus 12 degrees Celsius and plunge to minus 18 at night.

Zelensky added that public authorities will “maximize efforts with partners to obtain the necessary equipment and additional support,” while the government will ensure “maximum deregulation of all processes” to speed up the connection of backup power equipment to the grid. He also confirmed that work is underway to significantly increase electricity imports into Ukraine.

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The Ukrainian leader further instructed his Cabinet to review curfew regulations in light of the extreme cold, arguing that citizens must have the greatest possible access to assistance centers, while businesses should be given flexibility to plan their operations according to the state of the energy system.

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International

France joins Denmark’s ‘Operation Arctic Resistance’ in Greenland amid U.S. tensions

French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed in the early hours of Thursday (Wednesday afternoon in El Salvador) that France will take part in “Operation Arctic Resistance,” after Denmark announced it would expand its military presence in Greenland amid rising tensions with the United States over Washington’s stated ambitions regarding the semi-autonomous territory.

“At Denmark’s request, I have decided that France will participate in the joint exercises organized by Denmark in Greenland, ‘Operation Arctic Resistance,’” Macron said in a brief message posted on social media at 5:18 p.m.

The French president added that “the first French military elements are already on their way, with others to follow,” though he did not specify the number of troops being deployed or the scale of France’s planned contribution.

The governments of Sweden, Norway and Germany have also confirmed the deployment of military contingents to Greenland. Germany’s armed forces will send a 13-member reconnaissance team to the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, to take part in a mission scheduled to run from Thursday through Saturday, according to the German Ministry of Defence.

Denmark’s announcement came shortly before a Danish delegation met at the White House with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss Washington’s plans regarding Greenland. Copenhagen said the military activities would be carried out “in close cooperation with NATO allies.”

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International

Iran closes airspace amid U.S. threats and deadly nationwide protests

Iranian authorities closed the country’s airspace in the early hours of Thursday, according to data from flight-tracking website FlightRadar24, amid growing threats of a possible U.S. attack as protests across the country continue and have reportedly left thousands dead.

According to FlightRadar24, the Iranian government suspended all flights to and from the country, except for international flights that have received special authorization. The notice was initially issued for a duration of just over two hours.

The move comes after U.S. President Donald Trump in recent days threatened to strike Iran if its security forces failed to halt the deaths linked to weeks-long protests that began in Tehran and later spread to other Iranian cities. Despite the threats, the White House said diplomacy remains Trump’s preferred option.

Speaking from the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump claimed that “the deaths in Iran have stopped” and said there would be no executions of protesters following his warnings to Tehran. He added that his administration would seek to verify those claims.

“I’ve been told the deaths in Iran are stopping. They’ve stopped, and that there are no plans for executions,” Trump told reporters, cautioning that the United States would be “very upset” if those assurances proved to be untrue.

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The statements contrast with reports from rights groups. The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) said on Wednesday that more than 3,400 people have been killed since the protests erupted. Meanwhile, Kurdish-Iranian rights group Hengaw reported this week that a 26-year-old Iranian man, Erfan Soltani, was facing execution as of Wednesday.

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