International

Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN

Photo: Acnur

| By AFP | Patrick Galey |

Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.

The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.

The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.

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A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.

It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030.

Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added.

“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.

“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”

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The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans.

To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.

Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.

UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature.

Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said.

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All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C.

‘Missed opportunity’

UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C.

But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.

“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff.

“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”

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Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.

But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.

For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.

‘Avoid as much damage as possible’

Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects.

UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.

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It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.

“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message.

Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term.

Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.

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But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible.

“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said.

“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”

International

Argentina detects first local cases of Influenza A (H3N2) Subclade K

Argentina’s National Administration of Laboratories and Health Institutes (ANLIS) “Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán” has confirmed the detection of three cases of influenza A (H3N2) corresponding to subclade K in the country. These are the first locally recorded cases of this variant, which has become predominant in several countries in the Northern Hemisphere in recent months and is associated with higher transmissibility.

The cases were identified through the National Network of Laboratories and Sentinel Units and confirmed by the National Reference Laboratory of INEI-ANLIS using genomic sequencing techniques. According to health authorities, the cases involve two adolescents from the province of Santa Cruz, detected as part of the Ambulatory Monitoring Strategy for Acute Respiratory Infections, and a child who had been hospitalized in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires.

In all three cases, patients experienced mild illness and recovered without complications. Officials did not specify whether any of the affected individuals had a recent travel history.

The jurisdictions involved have already launched the corresponding epidemiological investigations and are responsible for ensuring timely medical care for the detected cases. According to the latest integrated surveillance report, the circulation of influenza and other respiratory viruses in Argentina remains within expected levels for this time of year.

International

Pentagon confirms Trump pick for SouthCom as U.S. military pressure grows

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has nominated a Marine Corps lieutenant general to lead U.S. Southern Command (SouthCom), the Pentagon announced on Friday, as Trump said he does not rule out the possibility of a war with Venezuela.

If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Marine Corps Lieutenant General Francis L. Donovan would replace an admiral who, according to media reports, criticized recent attacks on vessels allegedly linked to drug trafficking off the Venezuelan coast.

Washington has deployed a significant military presence in both the Caribbean and the Pacific, where it has carried out airstrikes against boats it claims were used by suspected drug traffickers. According to an AFP tally based on official information, the attacks have left more than 100 people dead.

The Venezuelan government has denounced what it describes as a plot to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro and seize the country’s oil resources.

In a statement published Friday on the Pentagon’s website, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that Trump had nominated Lieutenant General Donovan to serve as commander of U.S. Southern Command.

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SouthCom is responsible for U.S. military operations in Central and South America, as well as parts of the Caribbean.

According to the Department of Defense, Donovan currently serves as deputy commander of U.S. Special Operations Command. His appointment is subject to Senate confirmation.

International

Trump moves to reclassify marijuana as less dangerous substance

Former U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous addictive substance, a move aimed at encouraging medical research without immediately opening the door to federal-level decriminalization.

Trump said that “people were begging” him to make the decision, particularly individuals suffering from chronic pain. He stressed, however, that the measure “is not at all a decriminalization” of marijuana for non-medical use.

“I’ve always told my children: don’t use drugs, don’t drink, don’t smoke,” Trump added. He is a well-known teetotaler.

A senior government official described the decision as “common sense” during a briefing with reporters, noting that marijuana and CBD-based products — a compound derived from cannabis known for its relaxing properties — are already widely used in the United States by patients dealing with chronic pain.

Most U.S. states currently allow the use of cannabis for medical purposes, and more than 20 states, along with the nation’s capital, Washington, D.C., have also legalized recreational use.