International
Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN
| By AFP | Patrick Galey |
Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.
The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.
The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.
A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.
It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030.
Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added.
“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.
“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”
The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans.
To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.
Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.
UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature.
Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said.
All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C.
‘Missed opportunity’
UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C.
But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.
“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff.
“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”
Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.
But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.
For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.
‘Avoid as much damage as possible’
Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects.
UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.
It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.
“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message.
Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term.
Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.
But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible.
“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said.
“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”
International
Venezuela accuses U.S. of using Naval Deployment to pressure Maduro government
The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, joined the U.S. Navy’s anti-drug operation in Latin America on Tuesday—a deployment Venezuela has condemned as an attempt to pressure President Nicolás Maduro from power.
In a statement, the U.S. Southern Command confirmed that the carrier, ordered to deploy nearly three weeks ago, has entered its area of responsibility, which includes Latin America and the Caribbean.
“The world’s largest aircraft carrier will strengthen the United States’ ability to detect, monitor, and dismantle illicit actors and activities that threaten the security and prosperity of U.S. territory and our safety in the Western Hemisphere,” said Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
According to the White House, the U.S. government under Donald Trump has carried out about twenty operations in the Caribbean and the Pacific since early September, resulting in the deaths of 76 suspected drug traffickers.
However, U.S. authorities have not yet presented evidence that the targeted vessels were being used for drug trafficking or posed a direct threat to the country.
The operations have raised concerns in Caracas, where the Maduro administration views the deployment as a strategic move aimed at provoking regime change in Venezuela.
International
Venezuela mobilizes forces nationwide as tensions with U.S. rise
Venezuela’s armed forces launched a “massive” nationwide deployment on Tuesday in response to what the government calls “imperialist threats” from the United States, which continues its anti-drug military operation in the region and is preparing for the arrival of its most advanced aircraft carrier.
Since late August, U.S. forces have maintained a growing presence in the Caribbean to combat alleged drug trafficking originating from Colombia and Venezuela. The operation has resulted in the bombing of 20 vessels in international waters in the Caribbean and Pacific, leaving 76 people dead.
Venezuelan authorities claim the U.S. mission is aimed at toppling President Nicolás Maduro. While insisting he seeks peace, Maduro has repeatedly warned the country is prepared to defend itself and has frequently showcased military activities.
A statement from Venezuela’s Defense Ministry said the deployment includes land, air, naval, river and missile systems; armed forces units; the Bolivarian militia; and additional police, military and civilian defense structures.
State broadcaster VTV aired speeches from military leaders in various states, along with images of troops mobilizing and equipment being positioned.
However, analysts note that these frequent and highly publicized announcements do not always lead to visible operations on the ground.
On Monday, Maduro cautioned that Venezuela has the “strength and power” to respond to any aggression, including mobilizing civilians. “If imperialism were to strike and do harm, from the moment the order is given, the entire Venezuelan people would mobilize and fight,” he warned.
International
Jara: “Real toughness” means targeting drug money in Chile’s crime fight
Left-wing presidential candidate Jeannette Jara said during Chile’s final debate on Monday that the “real tough approach” to crime is to go after the financial networks behind drug trafficking and organized crime.
Rising crime, often linked in public discourse to a surge in irregular migration, has become the top concern among Chileans and has dominated the election campaign.
Although Chile’s homicide rate has nearly tripled over the past decade — from 2.5 to 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants — the country remains one of the safest in Latin America, according to the United Nations.
“I want to call on the right-wing candidates to join us in targeting those who control the money behind drug trafficking and organized crime. That is real tough action,” Jara, who is favored to win Sunday’s first-round vote, declared during the debate.
All eight candidates faced off on Monday night in the final televised confrontation before the election.
Polls — unavailable since they were suspended on November 2 — indicate that far-right candidate José Antonio Kast is likely to finish second behind Jara, but would hold the advantage in a potential December 14 runoff.
Kast is expected to consolidate support from three other right-wing contenders: Evelyn Matthei, Johannes Kaiser and Franco Parisi.
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