International
Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN
| By AFP | Patrick Galey |
Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.
The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.
The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.
A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.
It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030.
Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added.
“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.
“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”
The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans.
To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.
Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.
UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature.
Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said.
All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C.
‘Missed opportunity’
UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C.
But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.
“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff.
“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”
Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.
But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.
For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.
‘Avoid as much damage as possible’
Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects.
UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.
It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.
“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message.
Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term.
Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.
But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible.
“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said.
“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”
Central America
Mexico and Guatemala launch joint security operation after Agua Zarca border attack
The Government of Mexico announced on Tuesday that it has strengthened coordination with Guatemala following an armed confrontation in the community of Agua Zarca, in Guatemala’s Huehuetenango department, where a soldier was wounded in an attack attributed to organized-crime groups operating on both sides of the border.
The Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch, confirmed that Mexico is exchanging information with Guatemalan authorities and that Mexican Army units have been deployed along the border to reinforce surveillance and assist in reconnaissance operations.
The attack, Guatemala’s Defense Ministry stated, reflects the “criminal dynamics” dominating that border region, where different groups compete for drug and arms trafficking routes.
According to Guatemala’s Defense Ministry, the clash left a soldier wounded in the leg after suspected criminals crossed from Mexico and opened fire. The wounded soldier is reportedly in stable condition. Authorities also seized high-caliber weapons, explosives, tactical gear and drones, which were handed over for forensic analysis.
Mexican Defense Secretary General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo announced that a coordinated plan of operations will be launched involving both Mexican and Guatemalan forces along the border to counter these criminal networks.
Harfuch emphasized that the violence is not isolated but symptomatic of the ongoing struggle between criminal organizations for territorial control, and reiterated Mexico’s commitment to bilateral security cooperation and its intention to strengthen institutional presence in vulnerable border zones.
International
Zelensky meets Pope Leo XIV as review of U.S. peace plan continues
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met on Tuesday with Pope Leo XIV in Italy, after pledging to deliver a response to the United States regarding the proposed peace plan aimed at ending the war with Russia.
The meeting with the pontiff took place at the papal residence in Castel Gandolfo, near Rome, where Leo XIV “reiterated the need to continue dialogue and renewed his urgent hope that the ongoing diplomatic initiatives may lead to a just and lasting peace,” the Vatican said in a statement.
His visit to Italy follows Monday’s meetings with European leaders in London and Brussels, amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to agree to a peace plan that Zelensky said he is still reviewing.
According to Zelensky, the plan presented by Washington—originally consisting of 28 points—was reduced to 20 after discussions between Ukrainian and U.S. representatives over the weekend. “We are going to work on those 20 points. We are not completely satisfied with the proposals from our partners,” Zelensky said during an online press conference on Monday.
International
Japan lifts tsunami alert after strong 7.6-magnitude earthquake hits northern coast
A powerful 7.6-magnitude earthquake struck Japan’s northern coast on Monday, triggering several tsunami waves of up to 70 centimeters, authorities said. The tsunami alert was lifted in the early hours of Tuesday.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the quake occurred at 11:15 p.m. local time (14:15 GMT) off the coast of Misawa, at a depth of 53 kilometers. Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) immediately issued a tsunami warning. The first wave reached a port in Aomori Prefecture at 11:43 p.m. (14:43 GMT), followed by others measuring up to 70 centimeters.
Public broadcaster NHK reported that an employee at a hotel in the city of Hachinohe confirmed that several people were injured. Live footage showed shattered glass scattered across roads, while many residents evacuated to the city hall seeking shelter.
The strong tremor was also felt in Sapporo, where emergency alerts were sent to residents’ mobile phones. A reporter in Hokkaido described a horizontal shaking that lasted around 30 seconds, making it difficult to stay standing.
Before the alert was lifted, the JMA had warned of the possibility of tsunami waves up to three meters high along Japan’s Pacific coast. Government spokesperson Minoru Kihara urged residents to remain in safe areas until the warning was officially lifted.
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