International

Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN

Photo: Acnur

| By AFP | Patrick Galey |

Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.

The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.

The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.

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A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.

It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030.

Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added.

“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.

“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”

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The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans.

To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.

Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.

UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature.

Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said.

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All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C.

‘Missed opportunity’

UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C.

But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.

“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff.

“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”

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Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.

But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.

For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.

‘Avoid as much damage as possible’

Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects.

UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.

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It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.

“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message.

Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term.

Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.

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But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible.

“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said.

“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”

International

Child Found Malnourished in Van in France; Father Admits Confinement

French gendarmes discovered a child in a van in Hagenbach, in northeastern France, after a neighbor reported hearing what she described as “childlike noises” coming from the parked vehicle.

After unlocking the van, officers found the boy lying in a fetal position, unclothed and covered with a blanket, surrounded by garbage and near human waste, according to a statement from the Mulhouse prosecutor, Nicolas Heitz.

Authorities said the child appeared pale and severely malnourished. Due to prolonged confinement in a seated position, he was no longer able to walk. He was immediately taken to a hospital in Mulhouse for medical care.

The boy’s father, who lived with his partner and two daughters aged 10 and 12, admitted to keeping the child confined and depriving him of proper care.

According to the prosecutor, the man said he placed the child in the van in November 2024, claiming he wanted to “protect him” because his partner intended to have the boy admitted to a psychiatric facility.

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The suspect also stated that he allowed the child out of the vehicle in May 2025 and permitted him to enter the family apartment around mid-year, when the rest of the family was on vacation.

The man’s partner—who is not the child’s mother—also faces charges, including failure to report abuse. However, she has denied all accusations.

International

Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Risk Amid Hormuz Disruption

The Airports Council International Europe has warned of a potential “systemic shortage” of jet fuel if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored within the next three weeks, according to a letter reviewed by AFP on Friday.

In the document, addressed to the European Commission and first reported by the Financial Times, the European airport lobby stated that a “systemic jet fuel shortage will become a reality” in the European Union unless stable and significant transit through the strait resumes soon.

The association, which represents around 600 airports across 50 countries, called on Brussels to implement “urgent monitoring of fuel availability and supply” over the next six months.

Jet fuel prices have surged amid the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transport.

The conflict escalated on February 28 following joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran.

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In response, Tehran imposed several countermeasures, including blocking maritime traffic through the strait, a route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil, jet fuel, and gas supply passes.

International

Artemis II crew prepares for Earth return and splashdown recovery

Astronauts from the Artemis II mission are expected to be extracted from the Orion spacecraft approximately two hours after splashdown, scheduled for 20:07 UTC this Friday (6:07 p.m. in San Salvador), according to NASA.

Following recovery, a rescue team will transport the crew by aircraft to the USS John P. Murtha. Once onboard, they will undergo medical evaluations before boarding another flight to the Johnson Space Center.

On Thursday, NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen from the Canadian Space Agency, continued preparations for their return to Earth.

Their activities include stowing equipment used during the mission, securing cargo and storage compartments, and installing and adjusting crew seats to ensure all items are properly fastened. The crew will also review the latest weather updates, recovery operations status, and reentry timeline, while preparing for post-landing procedures.

At 21:53 UTC (9:53 p.m. in San Salvador), Orion’s thrusters are scheduled to perform a second trajectory correction maneuver, refining the spacecraft’s path back to Earth. During this operation, Hansen will monitor guidance, navigation, and propulsion systems.

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NASA explained that during Friday’s reentry, the service module will separate about 20 minutes before Orion reaches the upper atmosphere southeast of Hawaii. If necessary, a final trajectory adjustment will fine-tune the flight path before the capsule begins a series of roll maneuvers to safely distance itself from jettisoned components.

Just before atmospheric interface, Orion will reach a peak speed of approximately 3,800 km/h. As it descends to about 400,000 feet (around 121.9 km), communications will be interrupted for approximately six minutes due to plasma formation around the capsule during peak heating.

NASA expects the crew to experience up to 3.9 G during a nominal reentry profile. After exiting the blackout phase, the capsule will jettison its forward bay cover. Drogue parachutes will deploy at around 22,000 feet (6.7 km), followed by the three main parachutes at approximately 6,000 feet (1.8 km).

Artemis II marks NASA’s first crewed flight test of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft around the Moon. The mission aims to validate capabilities for deep space human exploration and lay the groundwork for future long-term scientific missions on the lunar surface.