International

Climate plans would allow up to 2.6C of global warming: UN

Photo: Acnur

| By AFP | Patrick Galey |

Country climate pledges leave the world on track to heat by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that emissions must fall 45 percent this decade to limit disastrous global warming.

The United Nations Environment Programme, in its annual Emissions Gap report, found that updated national promises since last year’s COP26 summit in Glasgow would only shave less than one percent off global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The world has warmed nearly 1.2C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and already faces increasingly ferocious climate-enhanced weather extremes like heatwaves, storms and floods.

The Emissions Gap report examines the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries’ decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to between 1.5-2.0C.

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A day after the UN’s climate change agency said governments were still doing “nowhere near” enough to keep global heating to 1.5C, UNEP found progress on emissions cutting had been “woefully inadequate”.

It said that additional pledges made since the COP26 summit in Glasgow last year would not even cut emissions by one percent by 2030.

Failure left the world “hurtling towards” a temperature rise far in excess of the Paris goals, it added.

“It’s another year squandered in terms of actually doing something about the problem,” the report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, told AFP.

“That’s not to say that all nations have not taken this seriously. But from a global perspective, it’s definitely very far from adequate.”

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The report found that in order for temperature rises to be capped at 2C, emissions would need to fall 30 percent faster by 2030 than envisioned under countries’ most up-to-date plans.

To limit heating to 1.5C, the gap is 45 percent.

Under the 2015 Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.

UNEP found that “unconditional” NDCs — which countries plan regardless of external support — would probably lead to Earth’s average temperature rising by 2.6C by 2100. Scientists warn that level would be catastrophic for humanity and for nature.

Conditional NDCs — which rely on international funding to achieve — would probably lead to a 2.4C temperature rise this century, it said.

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All told, current plans are likely to see a five- to 10-percent reduction in emissions by 2030 — a far cry from the drop of nearly 50 percent required for 1.5C.

‘Missed opportunity’

UNEP said that in 2020, carbon pollution fell more than seven percent, largely thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. A fall of that magnitude is needed every year this decade to stay on track for 1.5C.

But it said greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 could end up being the highest on record — some 52.8 billion tonnes — because countries threw themselves into fossil-fuelled pandemic recoveries.

“We see a full bounce-back in emissions after Covid,” said Olhoff.

“It’s a missed opportunity in terms of utilising these unprecedented recovery funds to accelerate a green transition.”

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Separately, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday it believed global energy emissions would peak in 2025 as surging oil and gas prices spurred a drive to renewables.

But UNEP said that while the switch to greener tech in the power sector was accelerating, several industries were lagging behind in the push towards net-zero emissions.

For example, in the food sector, which is responsible for around a third of emissions, dietary changes and cutting food loss could help reduce the sector’s footprint by more than 30 percent by 2050.

‘Avoid as much damage as possible’

Olhoff said the financial sector was “part of the problem rather than part of the solution” to climate change, with hundreds of billions funnelled annually to fossil fuel projects.

UNEP suggested the introduction of an effective carbon price under a global cap and trade system that would push investors to consider the environmental impact of their portfolios.

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It also called for central banks to make more funds available and help create global low-carbon technology markets.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Thursday’s report showed the world “cannot afford any more greenwashing”.

“Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up,” he said in a video message.

Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the world was likely to reach and even exceed 1.5C within decades, no matter how quickly emissions fall in the short term.

Olhoff said that for every year that passed without significant emissions cuts, 1.5C was getting “less realistic and less feasible”.

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But she insisted that governments needed to accelerate the green transition to avoid as much damage as possible.

“The more we learn, it’s absolutely clear that we should aim to get (temperature rises) as low as possible,” Olhoff said.

“Even if that means 1.6C instead of 1.5C, that’s definitely better than 2C degrees, just as 1.7C is worse than 1.6C.”

International

Japan reopens Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Plant despite public concerns

La centrale nucléaire japonaise de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, la plus grande au monde, a repris ses activités mercredi pour la première fois depuis la catastrophe de Fukushima en 2011, malgré les inquiétudes persistantes d’une partie de la population.

La remise en service a eu lieu à 19h02 heure locale (10h02 GMT), a indiqué à l’AFP Tatsuya Matoba, porte-parole de la compagnie Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco).

Le gouverneur de la préfecture de Niigata, où se situe la centrale, avait donné son feu vert à la reprise le mois dernier, en dépit d’une opinion publique divisée. Selon une enquête menée en septembre par la préfecture elle-même, 60 % des habitants se déclaraient opposés au redémarrage, contre 37 % favorables.

Mardi, plusieurs dizaines de manifestants ont bravé le froid et la neige pour protester près de l’entrée du site, sur les rives de la mer du Japon.

« L’électricité de Tokyo est produite à Kashiwazaki. Pourquoi seuls les habitants d’ici devraient-ils être exposés au danger ? Cela n’a aucun sens », a déclaré à l’AFP Yumiko Abe, une riveraine de 73 ans.

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La centrale de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa avait été mise à l’arrêt lorsque le Japon a fermé l’ensemble de ses réacteurs nucléaires à la suite du triple désastre de mars 2011 — un séisme, un tsunami et un accident nucléaire — survenu à Fukushima.

International

Markets rise as Trump halts Europe tariffs and floats Greenland agreement framework

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday lifted his threat to impose new tariffs on several European countries and said he had outlined the framework of a future agreement on Greenland during a meeting in Davos with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“Based on this understanding, I will not impose the tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on February 1,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, without providing details about the proposed “framework.”

The announcement boosted financial markets. Wall Street, which had been trading slightly higher, extended its gains following Trump’s message, while the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro.

Trump has repeatedly insisted that Greenland, rich in mineral resources, is ‘vital’ to the security of the United States and NATO, particularly as Arctic ice melts and global powers compete for strategic advantage in the region amid rising tensions with China and Russia.

Last week, the U.S. president threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on eight European countries for supporting Denmark and sending a military exploratory mission to Greenland. All of the targeted countries are NATO members, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, Europe’s largest economies.

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Trump said on Wednesday that additional discussions are underway regarding the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, specifically in connection with Greenland.

He assigned Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations.

Hours before his post, Trump ruled out the use of force to seize Greenland for the first time, but demanded “immediate negotiations” for its acquisition, reiterating his view that only the United States can guarantee the security of the Arctic island.

International

Venezuela’s interim president predicts 37% increase in revenues for 2026

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, said Wednesday that the country’s revenues are expected to increase by about 37% in 2026, in a statement made during a session of the Federal Government Council at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas.

Rodríguez said the projected rise in foreign currency income comes as agreements on Venezuelan oil sales with the United States are being implemented, including deals in which Washington will trade Venezuelan crude and manage the proceeds before transferring funds to Caracas.

“This year, revenues expressed in foreign currency will increase by 37%,” Rodríguez declared, according to EFE. She noted that the increase will also benefit regional governments and local authorities. “You will have more resources for your management, which I know you need,” she added.

Rodríguez said the distribution formula for revenues will remain the same as in 2025: 53% for communes, 29% for state governments, 15% for municipalities, and 3% for institutional strengthening. She also said the government would intervene to “correct imbalances” in how funds are allocated, particularly among some municipal and regional authorities.

The announcement follows reporting that Venezuela received at least $300 million from oil revenues tied to a U.S.–Venezuela deal that could involve up to 50 million barrels of crude. Washington officials have said the interim government met U.S. requirements under the agreement.