Connect with us

International

Brazil runoff: 3 key factors

Photo: Evaristo Sa / AFP

| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |

Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.

Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.

Rejection

Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.

Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.

Advertisement
20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90
20240813_lechematerna_728x91
20240701_vacunacion_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
domfuturo_netview-728x90
20240604_dom_728x90
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
previous arrow
next arrow

Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.

“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.

Turnout

Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).

“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.

Advertisement
20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90
20240813_lechematerna_728x91
20240701_vacunacion_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
domfuturo_netview-728x90
20240604_dom_728x90
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
previous arrow
next arrow

In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.

“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.

It’s the economy, stupid?

Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.

Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.

But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.

Advertisement
20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90
20240813_lechematerna_728x91
20240701_vacunacion_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
domfuturo_netview-728x90
20240604_dom_728x90
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
previous arrow
next arrow

“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.

Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.

Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.

Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.

Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”

Advertisement
20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90
20240813_lechematerna_728x91
20240701_vacunacion_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
domfuturo_netview-728x90
20240604_dom_728x90
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
previous arrow
next arrow

“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.

“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement
20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_300x250
20240813_lechematerna_300x200_1
20240813_lechematerna_300x200_2
20240701_vacunacion_300x250
20231124_etesal_300x250_1
20230816_dgs_300x250
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_300X250
MARN1

International

Mexico requests extradition of ‘Mini Lic’ for murder of journalist Javier Valdez

The Mexican government has requested the extradition of Dámaso López Serrano, a former high-ranking member of the Sinaloa Cartel, who is accused of masterminding the 2017 murder of Mexican journalist Javier Valdez, the Attorney General’s Office announced on Tuesday.

López Serrano, known as “Mini Lic,” was arrested last Friday in Virginia, United States, on charges of fentanyl trafficking, a crime he committed while on parole.

“This is the key issue for us, he [López Serrano] is the mastermind of this murder. The rest of the perpetrators are already processed and in jail, he was the one missing,” said Attorney General Alejandro Gertz.

“We immediately made the extradition request,” the official added during the routine morning press conference of President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Valdez, an award-winning reporter specializing in drug trafficking and correspondent for AFP and the newspaper La Jornada, was murdered on May 15, 2017, in front of the office of his magazine Riodoce in Culiacán, the capital of Sinaloa state.

“Mini Lic” was originally arrested in 2017 when he voluntarily turned himself in to U.S. authorities and pleaded guilty to trafficking methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine. In 2022, he was released on parole.

Gertz confirmed that the Mexican Attorney General’s Office had requested López Serrano’s extradition “countless times,” but Washington had declined to act on the request because he had become a “protected witness” for the U.S. government and “was providing a lot of information.”

“Now, with this situation where they themselves are acknowledging that this individual is still committing crimes, I think there are more than enough reasons for them to support us,” the prosecutor added.

The Sinaloa Cartel is one of the largest drug trafficking organizations in Mexico and was founded by Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, who is serving a life sentence in the United States.

Culiacán has been shaken by a wave of murders since the arrest of Ismael “Mayo” Zambada, another key leader of the cartel alongside Guzmán, on July 25 in New Mexico, United States.

Continue Reading

International

Cuba’s government stresses openness to serious, respectful U.S. relations

Cuba reiterated on Tuesday its willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States, just weeks before Republican President Donald Trump assumes office. During his first term, Trump halted the historic rapprochement between the two countries, which had been initiated just ten years earlier by Democrat Barack Obama.

“It will not be Cuba that proposes or takes the initiative to suspend the existing dialogues, to suspend the existing cooperation. Not even the discreet exchanges on some sensitive issues,” said Cuban Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernández de Cossío at a press conference in Havana.

“We will be attentive to the attitude of the new government, but Cuba’s stance will remain the same as it has been for the last 64 years. We are willing to develop a serious, respectful relationship with the United States, one that protects the sovereign interests of both countries,” he added.

His statements come on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the historic rapprochement announcement between Washington and Havana.

On December 17, 2014, Cuban leader Raúl Castro (2006-2021) and Barack Obama (2008-2016) announced the beginning of a thaw in relations, which led to the restoration of diplomatic ties in 2015, after more than half a century of confrontation.

This process of thawing bilateral relations was later halted by businessman Donald Trump, who significantly reinforced economic sanctions against the communist-ruled country. The Republican will return to the White House on January 20.

Cuba, under a U.S. trade embargo since 1962, was re-listed in 2021 on the “blacklist of countries supporting terrorism,” blocking financial and economic flows to the island of 10 million inhabitants.

Subsequently, the administration of current Democratic President Joe Biden made only slight adjustments to the sanctions and also kept Cuba on this list. However, his administration resumed bilateral contacts with Havana on migration issues and the fight against terrorism.

Continue Reading

International

Mexican government to use church atriums for gun surrender program to combat violence

The atriums of Mexican Catholic churches will be used for the voluntary surrender of weapons in exchange for economic and legal incentives as part of a plan announced on Tuesday by the government to reduce violence.

According to the Mexican government, there is a link between the illegal trafficking of weapons—almost entirely coming from the United States—and the spiral of criminal violence that has plagued the country since late 2006, when a controversial military anti-drug offensive was launched.

“The idea is to set up areas in the church atriums where people can voluntarily surrender their weapons, and in return, they will receive financial resources based on the weapon they are turning in,” explained President Claudia Sheinbaum during her regular press conference.

The left-wing leader emphasized that the program, called “Yes to Disarmament, Yes to Peace,” guarantees that those who surrender their weapons will not face any “investigation.”

“What we want is to disarm. This will be implemented next year. We also did it in Mexico City, and it had significant results,” added the former mayor of the capital, with a population of 9.2 million.

The disarmament plan is part of the government’s “comprehensive security strategy,” one of whose pillars is promoting a culture of peace, especially in regions severely affected by organized crime violence, Sheinbaum pointed out.

More than 450,000 people have been murdered in Mexico since the government launched its military-led anti-drug operation, alongside about 100,000 people who have gone missing.

Despite being a secular state, the Mexican Catholic Church has played a key role in efforts to contain violence, with priests acting as mediators between citizens and criminals. Several clergy members have been killed for this cause.

Just last week, the Catholic hierarchy called on cartels to declare a truce in their violent actions during the celebration of the Virgin of Guadalupe on December 12 and the upcoming Christmas holidays.

Continue Reading

Trending

Central News