International
Brazil runoff: 3 key factors
| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |
Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.
Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.
Rejection
Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.
Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.
Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.
“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.
Turnout
Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).
“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.
In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.
“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.
It’s the economy, stupid?
Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.
Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.
But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.
“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.
Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.
Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.
Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.
Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”
“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.
“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”
International
Pope Francis meets former Gaza hostages
Pope Francis met on Thursday at the Vatican with 16 Israelis who had been held hostage in Gaza for months by the Islamist group Hamas, according to the official Vatican news website.
The group consisted of ten women, four men, and two children, as reported by the same source. Several of the former hostages showed the Argentine pontiff banners or photos of their loved ones who remain in captivity.
Francis had previously met with the families of hostages in April this year and November 2023, but this was the first time he had met with individuals who had personally endured captivity.
Since the conflict between Israel and Hamas began, the pope has repeatedly called for the immediate release of Israeli hostages, while also condemning the suffering of the Palestinian population.
The war erupted on October 7, 2023, when Islamist militants attacked southern Israel, killing 1,206 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures that include hostages who died in captivity.
Of the kidnapped, 97 are still being held in Gaza, but the Israeli military estimates that 34 of them have died.
The military offensive launched by Israel in response has killed at least 43,736 people in the Gaza Strip, mostly civilians, according to data from the Ministry of Health in the Hamas-governed territory.
International
Israeli airstrikes on Damascus kill 15 and injure 16, including women and children
Israeli forces carried out airstrikes on residential buildings in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and its surroundings on Thursday, resulting in at least 15 deaths and 16 injuries, according to Syria’s Ministry of Defense and state television.
The ministry stated that around 3:20 p.m. local time (12:20 GMT), the Israeli military launched an aerial attack from the direction of the occupied Golan Heights, targeting several residential buildings in the Mazzeh neighborhood in western Damascus and the Qudsaya suburb to the northwest of the capital.
The airstrikes “resulted in the death of 15 people and injuries to 16 others, including women and children,” based on initial estimates, in addition to significant damage to private property and civilian buildings, the ministry added.
Meanwhile, state television reported Israeli airstrikes on three buildings in Mazzeh and another on a building in an educational complex located in a residential area of Qudsaya.
Following the strikes, loud explosions were heard throughout the city, and thick plumes of smoke could be seen rising from the targeted locations. Ambulances and emergency services rushed to the scene to attend to the victims.
International
Drug trafficker dies after boat collision with Guardia Civil Vessel in Sanlúca
Three people were on the boat that collided with a Guardia Civil vessel around midnight at the mouth of the Guadalquivir River in Sanlúcar de Barrameda, near the Andalusian city of Cádiz, a spokesperson for the Civil Guard reported.
Two officers sustained “contusions,” the spokesperson explained.
The drug traffickers managed to bring the boat to shore, where one of them was “abandoned” severely injured. The other two fled.
The Civil Guard officers attempted to resuscitate the victim before transporting him to Sanlúcar de Barrameda, but he ultimately died early in the morning.
The other two suspects took advantage of the officers’ absence while they were taking the victim and returned to set their boat on fire.
The collision occurred very close to the site of another accident on September 1, where a drug trafficker died following a Guardia Civil pursuit.
The suspects’ boat traveled “400 meters” before crashing head-on and “at full speed” into the riverbank, where a hundred bundles of hashish were found.
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