International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Death toll from southern Spain train crash rises to 40

The death toll from the train accident that occurred on Sunday in southern Spain has risen to 40, according to investigative sources cited by EFE on Monday afternoon.

Since early Monday, search operations have focused on the damaged carriages of a Renfe train bound for Huelva, which collided with the last derailed cars of an Iryo train traveling from Málaga to Madrid after it left the tracks.

The crash has also left more than 150 people injured. Of these, 41 remain hospitalized, including 12 in intensive care units at hospitals across the Andalusia region.

More than 220 Civil Guard officers are working at the site, searching the railway line and surrounding areas for key evidence to help identify victims and determine the causes of the accident.

The tragedy has revived memories of the deadliest railway disasters in Europe in recent decades. In Spain, the most severe occurred on July 24, 2013, when an Alvia train derailed near Santiago de Compostela, killing 80 people and injuring 130 others.

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At the European level, the worst rail disaster took place on June 3, 1998, in Eschede, northern Germany, when a high-speed train struck a bridge pillar at 200 kilometers per hour, resulting in 98 deaths and 120 injuries.

International

Spain’s Prime Minister pledges transparency after train crash kills at least 39

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez pledged on Monday to ensure “absolute transparency” regarding the causes of a train crash that killed at least 39 people on Sunday in southern Spain, warning that the death toll could still rise.

The fatal accident occurred in the Andalusia region, where the number of confirmed deaths reached 39 by Monday morning, according to a spokesperson for the Ministry of the Interior.

Authorities were preparing to deploy heavy machinery to lift several derailed train cars. “We are waiting for cranes to be installed this morning to lift cars one, two and three of the Alvia train, which suffered the most damage,” said Andalusian regional president Juanma Moreno Bonilla on regional television. “It is likely that once they are lifted, we may find more victims,” he added.

The disaster also left more than 120 people injured. As of Monday afternoon, 43 victims remained hospitalized, including 12 in intensive care, according to emergency services.

International

Over 160 christian worshippers kidnapped in Kaduna Church attacks

More than 160 Christian worshippers were abducted on Sunday during coordinated attacks carried out by armed gangs on two churches in a remote village in Kaduna State, northern Nigeria, according to a cleric and a United Nations report accessed by AFP on Monday.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, has witnessed a renewed surge in mass kidnappings since November, prompting the United States government to carry out military strikes on Christmas Day in the northwestern state of Sokoto.

U.S. President Donald Trump accused Nigerian armed groups of targeting Christians, describing the violence as a form of “genocide” against the religious community.

According to Reverend Joseph Hayab, president of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the north, the attackers arrived in large numbers, blocked access to the churches, and forced worshippers to flee into nearby forests.

“The attackers came in large numbers, sealed off the entrances to the churches, and drove the faithful into the bush,” Hayab told AFP.