International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Guatemala considers sending high-risk gang members to military prisons

Amid the escalating crisis in Guatemala’s prison system, the government is considering transferring high-risk gang members to military-run detention facilities, a move that analysts say could help address overcrowding and the lack of control in civilian prisons.

The debate has gained urgency following the killing of ten police officers by gang members, reportedly in retaliation after the government refused to meet demands made by Aldo Dupie Ochoa, alias “El Lobo,” leader of the Barrio 18 gang, which authorities identified as responsible for the attack.

Guatemala’s Minister of Defense, Henry David Sáenz, told local media that the possibility of relocating high-danger inmates to military brigades has not been formally discussed. However, he noted that the practice is not new to the Armed Forces and said it is something that “was already being done.”

One example is the detention center located within the Mariscal Zavala Military Brigade, in Zone 17 of Guatemala City, where several inmates are held under military supervision. The facility also houses high-profile detainees, including former official Eduardo Masaya, who faces corruption charges.

In 2015, a ministerial agreement authorized the establishment of the Zone Seventeen Detention Center within the brigade, with a maximum capacity of 114 inmates in Area A and 21 in Area B. The agreement specified that the facility would be used exclusively for civilians or military personnel considered at risk of assassination.

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Additionally, since 2010, a prison has operated within the Matamoros Barracks in Zone 1 of Guatemala City, holding dangerous or high-profile inmates. However, media outlets have described these military detention centers as “VIP prisons,” particularly for former government officials such as ex-president Otto Pérez Molina.

International

Rights group says over 5,000 killed in Iran protests, mostly civilians

A U.S.-based human rights group said on Friday it has confirmed that more than 5,000 people were killed during the recent protests in Iran, most of them civilians allegedly shot by security forces.

Non-governmental organizations monitoring the toll from the crackdown on what have been described as the largest demonstrations in Iran in years said their work has been hampered by an internet shutdown imposed by authorities since January 8. They warned that the actual death toll is likely significantly higher.

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), based in the United States, reported on Friday that it had verified the deaths of 5,002 people, including 4,714 protesters, 42 minors, 207 members of the security forces, and 39 bystanders.

The group added, however, that it is still investigating an additional 9,787 possible deaths, underscoring the difficulty of independently confirming information amid ongoing restrictions and repression.

International

Japan reopens Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Plant despite public concerns

La centrale nucléaire japonaise de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, la plus grande au monde, a repris ses activités mercredi pour la première fois depuis la catastrophe de Fukushima en 2011, malgré les inquiétudes persistantes d’une partie de la population.

La remise en service a eu lieu à 19h02 heure locale (10h02 GMT), a indiqué à l’AFP Tatsuya Matoba, porte-parole de la compagnie Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco).

Le gouverneur de la préfecture de Niigata, où se situe la centrale, avait donné son feu vert à la reprise le mois dernier, en dépit d’une opinion publique divisée. Selon une enquête menée en septembre par la préfecture elle-même, 60 % des habitants se déclaraient opposés au redémarrage, contre 37 % favorables.

Mardi, plusieurs dizaines de manifestants ont bravé le froid et la neige pour protester près de l’entrée du site, sur les rives de la mer du Japon.

« L’électricité de Tokyo est produite à Kashiwazaki. Pourquoi seuls les habitants d’ici devraient-ils être exposés au danger ? Cela n’a aucun sens », a déclaré à l’AFP Yumiko Abe, une riveraine de 73 ans.

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La centrale de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa avait été mise à l’arrêt lorsque le Japon a fermé l’ensemble de ses réacteurs nucléaires à la suite du triple désastre de mars 2011 — un séisme, un tsunami et un accident nucléaire — survenu à Fukushima.