International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Marco Rubio warns Cuba could be Trump administration’s next target

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not rule out that Cuba’s communist government could become the next target of the Trump administration, just one day after the arrest of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro.

In an interview on Meet the Press, Rubio issued a warning to Havana, stating that Cuban authorities are “in a lot of trouble.”

“Is the Cuban government the next target of the Trump administration?” journalist Kristen Welker asked.
“Well, the Cuban government is a major problem. Yes,” Rubio replied.
“So that’s a yes?” Welker pressed.
“I think they’re in a lot of trouble, yes,” the Secretary of State added.

In a separate appearance, Rubio—who is the son of Cuban immigrants—claimed that Venezuela’s intelligence services were “full of Cubans” and said the island nation had effectively taken control of Venezuela.

“In some cases, one of the biggest challenges Venezuelans face is having to declare their independence from Cuba,” Rubio said from President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club. “They basically tried to colonize the country from a security standpoint. So yes, if I were living in Havana and part of the government, I would at least be worried.”

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During a press conference on Saturday, President Trump himself said the United States seeks to be surrounded by “good neighbors.”

“It’s very similar in the sense that we want to help the people of Cuba, but we also want to help those who are forced to leave and live in this country,” Trump said. He also described the island as a “nation in decline” that is “not doing very well right now.”

The Cuban government has not yet responded to Rubio’s remarks. However, as a staunch ally of Maduro’s regime, Cuban authorities strongly condemned recent explosions and U.S. operations in Caracas.

“All nations in the region must remain alert, as the threat looms over everyone. In Cuba, our determination to fight is firm and unbreakable. The decision is one and only one: Homeland or Death,” Cuban officials said in a statement.

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International

Trump signals possible expansion of U.S. regional policy beyond Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Cuba could become a subject of discussion as part of a broader regional policy, highlighting the possibility that Washington may expand its focus beyond Venezuela amid rising tensions in Latin America.

The remarks suggest that the White House is considering a recalibration of its strategy toward the region, in a context shaped by recent actions and warnings related to political stability and hemispheric security.

International

World leaders react to U.S. attacks on Venezuela, sparking global divide

The following are international reactions to the U.S. attacks carried out on Saturday against Venezuela:

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs

China said it was “deeply shocked” and strongly condemned the use of force by the United States against a sovereign country, as well as the use of force against the president of that nation.

“China firmly opposes this hegemonic behavior by the United States, which seriously violates international law, infringes upon Venezuela’s sovereignty, and threatens peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean,” the ministry said. It urged Washington to comply with international law and the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, and to cease actions that violate the sovereignty and security of other countries.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot

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Barrot stated that the military operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro violates the principle of non-use of force, which underpins international law. He stressed that no lasting political solution can be imposed from outside and that only sovereign peoples can decide their own future.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Russia said the United States had committed an act of armed aggression against Venezuela, describing the move as deeply troubling and condemnable.

“The pretexts used to justify such actions are unfounded,” the ministry said, adding that ideological animosity had prevailed over pragmatism and the willingness to build relations based on trust and predictability.

Moscow emphasized the need to prevent further escalation and to focus on resolving the crisis through dialogue. It reiterated that Latin America should remain a zone of peace, as declared in 2014, and that Venezuela must be guaranteed the right to determine its own destiny without external — especially military — interference.

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Russia also said it supports calls by Venezuelan authorities and Latin American leaders for an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

United Nations

UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said Secretary-General António Guterres continues to stress the importance of full respect for international law, including the UN Charter. He added that the secretary-general is deeply concerned that international legal norms were not respected.

Government of Argentina and President Javier Milei

Argentine President Javier Milei, a close regional ally of Donald Trump, posted on X: “FREEDOM MOVES FORWARD. LONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT,” alongside a video showing him at a summit describing Maduro as a threat to the region and supporting the pressure exerted by Trump on Caracas.

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In a statement, the Argentine government praised “the decision and determination shown by the President of the United States and his administration in the recent actions taken in Venezuela that led to the capture of the dictator Nicolás Maduro, leader of the Cartel of the Suns.”

Argentina said it hopes these developments represent a decisive step forward in the fight against narcoterrorism in the region.

Mexican Foreign Ministry

Mexico strongly condemned and rejected the unilateral military actions carried out in recent hours by U.S. armed forces against targets in Venezuelan territory, calling them a clear violation of Article 2 of the United Nations Charter.

The Mexican government reiterated that dialogue and negotiation are the only legitimate and effective means to resolve disputes and reaffirmed its willingness to support any effort aimed at facilitating dialogue, mediation, or accompaniment to preserve regional peace and prevent confrontation.