International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
Venezuela accuses U.S. of using Naval Deployment to pressure Maduro government
The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, joined the U.S. Navy’s anti-drug operation in Latin America on Tuesday—a deployment Venezuela has condemned as an attempt to pressure President Nicolás Maduro from power.
In a statement, the U.S. Southern Command confirmed that the carrier, ordered to deploy nearly three weeks ago, has entered its area of responsibility, which includes Latin America and the Caribbean.
“The world’s largest aircraft carrier will strengthen the United States’ ability to detect, monitor, and dismantle illicit actors and activities that threaten the security and prosperity of U.S. territory and our safety in the Western Hemisphere,” said Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
According to the White House, the U.S. government under Donald Trump has carried out about twenty operations in the Caribbean and the Pacific since early September, resulting in the deaths of 76 suspected drug traffickers.
However, U.S. authorities have not yet presented evidence that the targeted vessels were being used for drug trafficking or posed a direct threat to the country.
The operations have raised concerns in Caracas, where the Maduro administration views the deployment as a strategic move aimed at provoking regime change in Venezuela.
International
Venezuela mobilizes forces nationwide as tensions with U.S. rise
Venezuela’s armed forces launched a “massive” nationwide deployment on Tuesday in response to what the government calls “imperialist threats” from the United States, which continues its anti-drug military operation in the region and is preparing for the arrival of its most advanced aircraft carrier.
Since late August, U.S. forces have maintained a growing presence in the Caribbean to combat alleged drug trafficking originating from Colombia and Venezuela. The operation has resulted in the bombing of 20 vessels in international waters in the Caribbean and Pacific, leaving 76 people dead.
Venezuelan authorities claim the U.S. mission is aimed at toppling President Nicolás Maduro. While insisting he seeks peace, Maduro has repeatedly warned the country is prepared to defend itself and has frequently showcased military activities.
A statement from Venezuela’s Defense Ministry said the deployment includes land, air, naval, river and missile systems; armed forces units; the Bolivarian militia; and additional police, military and civilian defense structures.
State broadcaster VTV aired speeches from military leaders in various states, along with images of troops mobilizing and equipment being positioned.
However, analysts note that these frequent and highly publicized announcements do not always lead to visible operations on the ground.
On Monday, Maduro cautioned that Venezuela has the “strength and power” to respond to any aggression, including mobilizing civilians. “If imperialism were to strike and do harm, from the moment the order is given, the entire Venezuelan people would mobilize and fight,” he warned.
International
Jara: “Real toughness” means targeting drug money in Chile’s crime fight
Left-wing presidential candidate Jeannette Jara said during Chile’s final debate on Monday that the “real tough approach” to crime is to go after the financial networks behind drug trafficking and organized crime.
Rising crime, often linked in public discourse to a surge in irregular migration, has become the top concern among Chileans and has dominated the election campaign.
Although Chile’s homicide rate has nearly tripled over the past decade — from 2.5 to 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants — the country remains one of the safest in Latin America, according to the United Nations.
“I want to call on the right-wing candidates to join us in targeting those who control the money behind drug trafficking and organized crime. That is real tough action,” Jara, who is favored to win Sunday’s first-round vote, declared during the debate.
All eight candidates faced off on Monday night in the final televised confrontation before the election.
Polls — unavailable since they were suspended on November 2 — indicate that far-right candidate José Antonio Kast is likely to finish second behind Jara, but would hold the advantage in a potential December 14 runoff.
Kast is expected to consolidate support from three other right-wing contenders: Evelyn Matthei, Johannes Kaiser and Franco Parisi.
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