International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Japan reopens Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Plant despite public concerns

La centrale nucléaire japonaise de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, la plus grande au monde, a repris ses activités mercredi pour la première fois depuis la catastrophe de Fukushima en 2011, malgré les inquiétudes persistantes d’une partie de la population.

La remise en service a eu lieu à 19h02 heure locale (10h02 GMT), a indiqué à l’AFP Tatsuya Matoba, porte-parole de la compagnie Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco).

Le gouverneur de la préfecture de Niigata, où se situe la centrale, avait donné son feu vert à la reprise le mois dernier, en dépit d’une opinion publique divisée. Selon une enquête menée en septembre par la préfecture elle-même, 60 % des habitants se déclaraient opposés au redémarrage, contre 37 % favorables.

Mardi, plusieurs dizaines de manifestants ont bravé le froid et la neige pour protester près de l’entrée du site, sur les rives de la mer du Japon.

« L’électricité de Tokyo est produite à Kashiwazaki. Pourquoi seuls les habitants d’ici devraient-ils être exposés au danger ? Cela n’a aucun sens », a déclaré à l’AFP Yumiko Abe, une riveraine de 73 ans.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

La centrale de Kashiwazaki-Kariwa avait été mise à l’arrêt lorsque le Japon a fermé l’ensemble de ses réacteurs nucléaires à la suite du triple désastre de mars 2011 — un séisme, un tsunami et un accident nucléaire — survenu à Fukushima.

International

Markets rise as Trump halts Europe tariffs and floats Greenland agreement framework

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday lifted his threat to impose new tariffs on several European countries and said he had outlined the framework of a future agreement on Greenland during a meeting in Davos with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“Based on this understanding, I will not impose the tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on February 1,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, without providing details about the proposed “framework.”

The announcement boosted financial markets. Wall Street, which had been trading slightly higher, extended its gains following Trump’s message, while the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro.

Trump has repeatedly insisted that Greenland, rich in mineral resources, is ‘vital’ to the security of the United States and NATO, particularly as Arctic ice melts and global powers compete for strategic advantage in the region amid rising tensions with China and Russia.

Last week, the U.S. president threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on eight European countries for supporting Denmark and sending a military exploratory mission to Greenland. All of the targeted countries are NATO members, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, Europe’s largest economies.

20250501_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

Trump said on Wednesday that additional discussions are underway regarding the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, specifically in connection with Greenland.

He assigned Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations.

Hours before his post, Trump ruled out the use of force to seize Greenland for the first time, but demanded “immediate negotiations” for its acquisition, reiterating his view that only the United States can guarantee the security of the Arctic island.

International

Venezuela’s interim president predicts 37% increase in revenues for 2026

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, said Wednesday that the country’s revenues are expected to increase by about 37% in 2026, in a statement made during a session of the Federal Government Council at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas.

Rodríguez said the projected rise in foreign currency income comes as agreements on Venezuelan oil sales with the United States are being implemented, including deals in which Washington will trade Venezuelan crude and manage the proceeds before transferring funds to Caracas.

“This year, revenues expressed in foreign currency will increase by 37%,” Rodríguez declared, according to EFE. She noted that the increase will also benefit regional governments and local authorities. “You will have more resources for your management, which I know you need,” she added.

Rodríguez said the distribution formula for revenues will remain the same as in 2025: 53% for communes, 29% for state governments, 15% for municipalities, and 3% for institutional strengthening. She also said the government would intervene to “correct imbalances” in how funds are allocated, particularly among some municipal and regional authorities.

The announcement follows reporting that Venezuela received at least $300 million from oil revenues tied to a U.S.–Venezuela deal that could involve up to 50 million barrels of crude. Washington officials have said the interim government met U.S. requirements under the agreement.