International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Missile attack hits Kharkiv homes, leaving 13 wounded

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that a Russian missile attack on residential buildings in the eastern city of Kharkiv has left at least 13 people injured, according to local authorities.

“A horrific Russian attack on Kharkiv,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram, explaining that two missiles were fired, striking residential areas and causing “a number of casualties that is still being clarified.”

Local officials later confirmed that 13 people were injured in the attack, six of whom were hospitalized, including one woman in serious condition.

International

Sheinbaum evacuates National Palace after 6.5-magnitude earthquake hits Southern Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo evacuated the National Palace on Friday along with journalists and federal government staff after the seismic alert was activated during her morning press conference, triggered by a 6.5-magnitude earthquake with its epicenter in the south of the country.

The alert sounded while the president was speaking from the Treasury Hall, forcing the immediate interruption of the event and the activation of established safety protocols.

“Oh, it’s shaking,” Sheinbaum said as she noticed the tremor, before urging those present to remain calm.

According to preliminary information, the earthquake struck the state of Guerrero, one of Mexico’s most seismically active regions. The National Seismological Service (SSN) reported that the quake occurred at 7:58 a.m. local time (13:58 GMT).

Sheinbaum led the orderly evacuation of the historic building, accompanied by reporters covering the briefing and federal government personnel. Images released afterward show the president waiting in the central courtyard of the National Palace as she awaited guidance from Civil Protection authorities on whether it was safe to resume activities.

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International

Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney to join Ukraine peace talks in Paris

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Friday that he will take part in peace negotiations on Ukrainescheduled to be held in Paris on January 5 and 6.

In a statement, the Canadian government said the meeting will bring together countries belonging to the so-called Coalition of the Willing, and aims to “accelerate efforts toward a negotiated peace” in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supported by robust security guarantees.

Carney said Canada is working closely with its allies to achieve a “just and lasting peace,” stressing that the Coalition of the Willing must both deter further aggression and reinforce security guarantees, while ensuring that Ukraine is able to rebuild, recover and lay the foundations for genuine prosperity.

The Coalition of the Willing is made up of around 30 countries, the vast majority of them European, all of which are allies of Kyiv.

On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that a meeting of the Coalition, alongside other European leaders, will take place in Paris on January 6, focusing on security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a future peace agreement with Russia.