International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
Mexico requests extradition of ‘Mini Lic’ for murder of journalist Javier Valdez
The Mexican government has requested the extradition of Dámaso López Serrano, a former high-ranking member of the Sinaloa Cartel, who is accused of masterminding the 2017 murder of Mexican journalist Javier Valdez, the Attorney General’s Office announced on Tuesday.
López Serrano, known as “Mini Lic,” was arrested last Friday in Virginia, United States, on charges of fentanyl trafficking, a crime he committed while on parole.
“This is the key issue for us, he [López Serrano] is the mastermind of this murder. The rest of the perpetrators are already processed and in jail, he was the one missing,” said Attorney General Alejandro Gertz.
“We immediately made the extradition request,” the official added during the routine morning press conference of President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Valdez, an award-winning reporter specializing in drug trafficking and correspondent for AFP and the newspaper La Jornada, was murdered on May 15, 2017, in front of the office of his magazine Riodoce in Culiacán, the capital of Sinaloa state.
“Mini Lic” was originally arrested in 2017 when he voluntarily turned himself in to U.S. authorities and pleaded guilty to trafficking methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine. In 2022, he was released on parole.
Gertz confirmed that the Mexican Attorney General’s Office had requested López Serrano’s extradition “countless times,” but Washington had declined to act on the request because he had become a “protected witness” for the U.S. government and “was providing a lot of information.”
“Now, with this situation where they themselves are acknowledging that this individual is still committing crimes, I think there are more than enough reasons for them to support us,” the prosecutor added.
The Sinaloa Cartel is one of the largest drug trafficking organizations in Mexico and was founded by Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, who is serving a life sentence in the United States.
Culiacán has been shaken by a wave of murders since the arrest of Ismael “Mayo” Zambada, another key leader of the cartel alongside Guzmán, on July 25 in New Mexico, United States.
International
Cuba’s government stresses openness to serious, respectful U.S. relations
Cuba reiterated on Tuesday its willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States, just weeks before Republican President Donald Trump assumes office. During his first term, Trump halted the historic rapprochement between the two countries, which had been initiated just ten years earlier by Democrat Barack Obama.
“It will not be Cuba that proposes or takes the initiative to suspend the existing dialogues, to suspend the existing cooperation. Not even the discreet exchanges on some sensitive issues,” said Cuban Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernández de Cossío at a press conference in Havana.
“We will be attentive to the attitude of the new government, but Cuba’s stance will remain the same as it has been for the last 64 years. We are willing to develop a serious, respectful relationship with the United States, one that protects the sovereign interests of both countries,” he added.
His statements come on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the historic rapprochement announcement between Washington and Havana.
On December 17, 2014, Cuban leader Raúl Castro (2006-2021) and Barack Obama (2008-2016) announced the beginning of a thaw in relations, which led to the restoration of diplomatic ties in 2015, after more than half a century of confrontation.
This process of thawing bilateral relations was later halted by businessman Donald Trump, who significantly reinforced economic sanctions against the communist-ruled country. The Republican will return to the White House on January 20.
Cuba, under a U.S. trade embargo since 1962, was re-listed in 2021 on the “blacklist of countries supporting terrorism,” blocking financial and economic flows to the island of 10 million inhabitants.
Subsequently, the administration of current Democratic President Joe Biden made only slight adjustments to the sanctions and also kept Cuba on this list. However, his administration resumed bilateral contacts with Havana on migration issues and the fight against terrorism.
International
Mexican government to use church atriums for gun surrender program to combat violence
The atriums of Mexican Catholic churches will be used for the voluntary surrender of weapons in exchange for economic and legal incentives as part of a plan announced on Tuesday by the government to reduce violence.
According to the Mexican government, there is a link between the illegal trafficking of weapons—almost entirely coming from the United States—and the spiral of criminal violence that has plagued the country since late 2006, when a controversial military anti-drug offensive was launched.
“The idea is to set up areas in the church atriums where people can voluntarily surrender their weapons, and in return, they will receive financial resources based on the weapon they are turning in,” explained President Claudia Sheinbaum during her regular press conference.
The left-wing leader emphasized that the program, called “Yes to Disarmament, Yes to Peace,” guarantees that those who surrender their weapons will not face any “investigation.”
“What we want is to disarm. This will be implemented next year. We also did it in Mexico City, and it had significant results,” added the former mayor of the capital, with a population of 9.2 million.
The disarmament plan is part of the government’s “comprehensive security strategy,” one of whose pillars is promoting a culture of peace, especially in regions severely affected by organized crime violence, Sheinbaum pointed out.
More than 450,000 people have been murdered in Mexico since the government launched its military-led anti-drug operation, alongside about 100,000 people who have gone missing.
Despite being a secular state, the Mexican Catholic Church has played a key role in efforts to contain violence, with priests acting as mediators between citizens and criminals. Several clergy members have been killed for this cause.
Just last week, the Catholic hierarchy called on cartels to declare a truce in their violent actions during the celebration of the Virgin of Guadalupe on December 12 and the upcoming Christmas holidays.
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