International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Federal Judge Blocks Trump Policy Allowing Deportations to Third Countries

A federal judge ruled on Wednesday that the policy of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration allowing immigration authorities to deport foreign nationals to third countries without prior notice or the opportunity to object is unlawful. The decision marks another legal setback for the administration on immigration matters.

Judge Brian Murphy of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts struck down the regulation issued last year, which stated that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was not required to notify migrants if they were to be sent to countries other than the one listed in their removal order, provided that receiving nations offered assurances they would not face persecution or torture.

Murphy ordered the measure vacated but granted a 15-day delay before the ruling takes effect, giving the Trump administration time to file an appeal.

In his decision, the judge concluded that the policy violates federal immigration law and migrants’ due process rights. He also questioned the lack of transparency surrounding the alleged assurances provided by receiving countries, stating that “no one really knows anything about these supposed ‘assurances.’” He added, “It is not right, and it is not lawful.”

The ruling follows several legal disputes involving deportations to third countries. Last year, the executive branch deported more than 200 Salvadorans to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador, invoking an old wartime law. The White House also held talks with Costa Rica, Panama, and Rwanda about receiving migrants who are not citizens of those countries.

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In May, the same judge determined that the government violated a court order when it attempted to remove a group of immigrants with criminal records to South Sudan without prior notice or an opportunity to raise claims of fear of persecution.

Although President Donald Trump took the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, which temporarily allowed the deportations to resume while a final decision was pending, the White House is expected to again appeal to higher courts to overturn this latest judicial ruling.

International

Cocaine Production Surges 34% in 2023 as Market Expands into Africa and Asia

The global cocaine market is the fastest-growing among all illicit drugs worldwide, the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) warned on Thursday in its annual report presented in Vienna.

The body attributes this expansion to the sustained rise in production in South America — particularly in Colombia — as well as increasing demand in emerging regions such as Africa and Asia.

According to the report, global cocaine production surpassed 3,700 metric tons in 2023, marking a 34% increase compared to 2022. This growth is largely driven by the expansion of illicit coca cultivation in Colombia and the greater production capacity of clandestine laboratories.

The INCB noted that the market has not only grown in volume but has also diversified and become more globalized. While Europe and North America remain the primary destinations, trafficking routes now reach “all regions of the world,” including Africa — traditionally considered a transit zone — and Asia, where the presence of cocaine was previously marginal.

In Western and Central Europe, for the fifth consecutive year, seizures in 2023 exceeded those in North America, consolidating the region as the leading destination market. Between January 2019 and June 2024, more than 1,826 metric tons of drugs bound for European ports were seized, of which 82% was cocaine, equivalent to 1,487 metric tons.

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The report also highlights that seizures in Africa rose by 48% in 2023 compared to 2022, reflecting the expansion of the market on the continent. Globally, the number of cocaine users increased from 17 million in 2013 to 25 million in 2023.

International

Clinton Accuses Republican Committee of Using Epstein Case to Shield Trump

Former U.S. Secretary of State and former First Lady Hillary Clinton denied on Thursday before a congressional committee that she had ever met convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in person or had any knowledge of the crimes he committed.

Clinton testified behind closed doors from New York before the House Oversight Committee. The wife of former President Bill Clinton — who is scheduled to testify on Friday — accused the Republican-controlled committee of summoning her in order to “distract attention” and “cover up” the activities of President Donald Trump, who had past ties to Epstein.

“I do not recall ever meeting Mr. Epstein. I never flew on his plane nor visited his island, his homes, or his offices. I have nothing further to add,” she stated.

The former Secretary of State emphasized that she “had no idea about the criminal activities” of the financier, who died in prison in 2019. “Like any decent person, I was horrified when I learned of his crimes,” she said.

Clinton described the Epstein case as “a tragedy” and “a scandal” that deserves “a thorough investigation,” but criticized the committee for failing to summon what she called the truly relevant individuals.

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“Instead, you have asked me to testify, knowing that I have no knowledge that would serve your investigation, with the purpose of distracting from President Trump’s activities and shielding him despite the legitimate demand for answers,” she said.

The questioning, conducted behind closed doors in Chappaqua, New York — where the Clintons reside — took place one day before former President Bill Clinton was scheduled to appear at the same location.

Although the Clintons initially declined to testify before Congress, the threat of being held in contempt ultimately led the former presidential couple to agree to appear and explain their relationship with Epstein.