International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

New York Announces First 2,000 Seats in Universal 2-K Program

The Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani took another step today in their universal early education agenda by announcing the communities that will have access to the first 2,000 seats in the new 2-K program this fall — an initiative backed by a $73 million investment.

The funding is part of the $1.2 billion package previously unveiled by Hochul to strengthen child care and early childhood education across the city, one of the key campaign promises of the now Social Democratic mayor.

At the time of the announcement, the governor also outlined additional funds to reinforce the existing 3-K early education infrastructure, a program launched under former Mayor Bill de Blasio (2014–2021).

When the 2-K initiative was introduced in January, Mayor Mamdani explained that its first phase would offer 2,000 seats, with the goal of eventually expanding into a universal program — a commitment supported by the governor.

State investment in child care and preschool services is expected to increase to $4.5 billion by fiscal year 2027.

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Among the first communities set to benefit from the 2,000 seats are Upper Manhattan and Inwood — areas with large Dominican populations — as well as Fordham and Kingsbridge in the Bronx, a borough with a Latino majority.

In East Brooklyn, Canarsie, Brownsville, and Ocean Hill will also be included. Meanwhile, Ozone Park and the Rockaways are among the neighborhoods that will see the rollout of the 2-K program.

International

Warner Bros. Developing First ‘Game of Thrones’ Movie With ‘Andor’ Writer

Warner Bros. is developing the first feature film based on the hit saga Game of Thrones, with Beau Willimon — screenwriter of Andor — attached to direct, according to a report published Tuesday by Page Six.

The project, currently in early development, will focus on the conquest of King Aegon I Targaryen. A separate television adaptation centered on the same historical storyline within the franchise is also in early stages at HBO.

However, the outlet noted that it remains unclear whether the film will move forward following the recent acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Skydance.

If the merger is finalized, the movie could potentially be shelved, although that scenario appears unlikely given that the Game of Thrones franchise remains one of HBO’s most valuable and beloved properties.

After six seasons adapting the work of George R. R. Martin, the platform expanded the universe with House of the Dragon, a prequel series set 200 years before the events of Game of Thrones that explores the history of House Targaryen.

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International

Spain’s Prime Minister to Address Nation Amid Trump’s Trade Threats

The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, will deliver an institutional address this Wednesday at the Moncloa Palace regarding the escalating situation in the Middle East and recent threats directed at Spain by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Spanish government announced that Sánchez will make a statement at 9:00 a.m. local time to outline his position on the latest developments following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Sánchez is expected to reiterate Spain’s reasons for opposing the use of U.S. military bases on Spanish soil in the operation—an action he has already described as being outside international law—while also expressing criticism of the Iranian regime.

Government sources indicated that the address had been planned prior to Trump’s remarks criticizing Spain’s stance. However, following those comments, Sánchez is now also expected to respond directly to the U.S. president’s statements.

Trump has threatened to “cut all trade with Spain” and said he wants “nothing to do” with the country after Madrid refused to authorize the use of the Morón and Rota military bases in southern Spain for operations against Tehran.

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The U.S. president also labeled Spain “a terrible NATO partner” and warned that “no one” would tell him he could not use the facilities.

In response, the Spanish government stated that Spain fulfills its commitments to NATO and European defense. It also warned Trump that any review of bilateral trade relations must respect international law and the agreements in place between the European Union and the United States.