International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Mexican Navy Ships Deliver Third Shipment of Humanitarian Aid to Cuba

Two logistics support vessels from the Mexican Navy — the ARM Papaloapan and the ARM Huasteco — docked again on Friday in the bay of Havana carrying a third shipment of humanitarian aid for Cuba.

The vessels had previously arrived on the Caribbean island on February 28 with a second cargo that included 1,200 tons of food, sent to help alleviate the country’s ongoing crisis, which has worsened following the U.S. oil restrictions affecting fuel supplies to the island.

Cuba’s deputy foreign minister Josefina Vidal confirmed the new shipment in a social media post.

“Two ships carrying a third shipment of aid from the Government and the people of Mexico for the Cuban people are now arriving at the port of Havana. Thank you Mexico for your solidarity with Cuba,” she wrote.

Previous aid shipments

During the second shipment, the Papaloapan transported 1,078 tons of beans and powdered milk, while the Huastecocarried 92 tons of beans and 23 tons of assorted food products collected by social organizations with support from the government of Mexico City.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

In recent months, Mexico has become the largest provider of humanitarian aid to Cuba, sending around 2,000 tons of supplies, mostly staple foods and hygiene products, in the two shipments prior to Friday’s delivery.

The first shipment alone included 814 tons of food.

Cuba praises Mexico’s support

Hours before the ships arrived, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel highlighted Mexico’s support during a televised appearance, describing the country as “a friendly and brotherly nation that has shown tremendous solidarity,”particularly praising Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Díaz-Canel also addressed reports suggesting that Mexican donations were being resold in state-run stores, dismissing them as a “disinformation campaign” promoted by right-wing groups.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

International

Ecuador Declares 60-Day National Emergency After Deadly Floods and Landslides

Ecuador has declared a 60-day national emergency to address the impact of a severe rainy season that has left 11 people dead and more than 50,000 affected since January, the government’s disaster management authority announced Friday.

Prolonged heavy rains accompanied by thunderstorms have caused river overflows and landslides, mainly in the coastal provinces of Guayas, El Oro, Esmeraldas, Los Ríos, Manabí and Santa Elena, as well as in the Andean provinces of Lojaand Chimborazo.

According to the Secretariat for Risk Management of Ecuador, the emergency declaration was issued “due to the level of impact caused nationwide on the population, the road network, infrastructure, and livelihoods.”

“The emergency declaration is aimed at responding to the effects and negative impacts and preventing their further spread,” the agency said in a statement.

International

Trump Pushes for Regime Change in Cuba as Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire for political change in Cuba, located just 150 kilometers from the United States. Washington considers the island an “exceptional threat,” citing its close ties with Russia, Chinaand Iran, longtime allies of Havana.

Trump has urged Cuba to “reach a deal” with Washington or face consequences, as the island struggles with a severe energy crisis that has nearly paralyzed its economy after the United States cut oil shipments from Venezuela, its main fuel supplier. The U.S. has also warned other countries against selling fuel to Havana.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuban officials have recently held talks with representatives of the U.S. government. The statement came during a meeting with senior members of the ruling Communist Party of Cuba and the executive committee of the Council of Ministers, according to footage broadcast on Cuban television.

“These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that exist between our two nations,” Díaz-Canel said.

Reports of intermediaries and possible negotiations

According to television images, among those attending the meeting was Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Although he holds no official government position, U.S. media have identified him as a possible interlocutor with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in what have been described as secret discussions between Washington and Havana.

20260224_estafa_mh_728x90

For some Cubans, any potential agreement with Washington is viewed pragmatically. “As long as it benefits us, we can reach an agreement — but on our terms,” said Sergio Guerra, a 55-year-old agricultural vendor, speaking to AFP.

Díaz-Canel’s remarks confirm earlier statements by Trump, who indicated in January that his administration had already begun contacts with senior Cuban officials.

Mexico calls for diplomacy

Meanwhile, Mexico welcomed the possibility of dialogue after recently sending more than 2,000 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba to help mitigate the crisis.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country would always promote peace and diplomatic dialogue, particularly in response to what she described as the long-standing injustice of the U.S. embargo on the Cuban people.