International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

Central America

Guatemala’s Attorney General Consuelo Porras Loses Bid for Constitutional Court Seat

Guatemala’s attorney general, Consuelo Porras, who has been sanctioned by the United States over corruption allegations, lost a key vote on Monday in which a public university selected two of the 10 magistrates for the country’s highest constitutional court. However, she could still seek a seat through another nominating body.

The election of five full magistrates and five alternates to the Corte de Constitucionalidad (CC) is taking place gradually over more than two months and is considered crucial in the ongoing struggle for control of Guatemala’s judiciary, which critics say has long been influenced by a political and economic elite accused of corruption.

According to results announced at a press conference, the governing council of the Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala (USAC) rejected Porras, who had applied as either a full or alternate magistrate, and instead chose two candidates aligned with the university rector. The vote was held at a hotel in Antigua, about 35 kilometers from the capital.

Despite the setback, Porras — whose term as attorney general ends on May 16 — could still be nominated to the Constitutional Court by the Corte Suprema de Justicia, which appoints two magistrates. The remaining six are selected by the president, the bar association and Congress.

“It’s always a possibility,” the 72-year-old lawyer said days earlier when asked by reporters whether she would seek nomination through another institution if she lost the USAC vote.

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Porras has been sanctioned by Washington and the European Union for allegedly attempting two years ago to block the inauguration of President Bernardo Arévalo and for pursuing legal actions against anti-corruption prosecutors, judges, journalists and social leaders since taking office in 2018.

The USAC vote was controversial because most members of the university’s governing council are serving beyond the expiration of their terms. Students, academics and social activists staged protests against Porras’ candidacy.

International

Florida judge sets 2027 trial in Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against BBC

A federal judge in Florida has scheduled February 2027 for the trial in the lawsuit filed by U.S. President Donald Trump against the BBC, in which he is seeking $10 billion in damages for defamation.

Trump accuses the British broadcaster of airing a misleading edit of a speech he delivered on January 6, 2021, which, he says, made it appear that he explicitly urged his supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

The president filed the suit in December in federal court in Florida, alleging defamation and violations of a law governing business practices when the program was broadcast ahead of the 2024 election.

Trump is seeking $5 billion in damages for each of the two claims.

Lawyers for the BBC unsuccessfully asked the court to dismiss the case, arguing that Trump had not suffered a “legally recognizable harm,” since the investigative program Panorama, which included the edited footage, aired outside the United States.

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International

Head-of-state diplomacy key to guiding China–U.S. ties, Beijing says

Head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China–United States relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Thursday during a regular press briefing, when asked about high-level exchanges between the two sides.

Lin added that in a recent phone call, U.S. President Donald Trump once again expressed his intention to visit China in April, while Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his invitation.

Both sides remain in communication regarding the matter, the spokesperson said.

Lin noted that the essence of China–U.S. economic and trade ties lies in mutual benefit and win-win outcomes.

“Both parties should work together to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, injecting greater certainty and stability into China–U.S. economic and trade cooperation, as well as into the global economy,” he said.