International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Five laboratories investigated in Spain over possible African Swine Fever leak

Catalan authorities announced this Saturday that a total of five laboratories are under investigation over a possible leak of the African swine fever virus, which is currently affecting Spain and has put Europe’s largest pork producer on alert.

“We have commissioned an audit of all facilities, of all centers within the 20-kilometer risk zone that are working with the African swine fever virus,” said Salvador Illa, president of the Catalonia regional government, during a press conference. Catalonia is the only Spanish region affected so far. “There are only a few centers, no more than five,” Illa added, one day after the first laboratory was announced as a potential source of the outbreak.

Illa also reported that the 80,000 pigs located on the 55 farms within the risk zone are healthy and “can be made available for human consumption following the established protocols.” Therefore, he said, “they may be safely marketed on the Spanish market.”

International

María Corina Machado says Venezuela’s political transition “must take place”

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said this Thursday, during a virtual appearance at an event hosted by the Venezuelan-American Association of the U.S. (VAAUS) in New York, that Venezuela’s political transition “must take place” and that the opposition is now “more organized than ever.”

Machado, who is set to receive the Nobel Peace Prize on December 10 in Oslo, Norway — although it is not yet known whether she will attend — stressed that the opposition is currently focused on defining “what comes next” to ensure that the transition is “orderly and effective.”

“We have legitimate leadership and a clear mandate from the people,” she said, adding that the international community supports this position.

Her remarks come amid a hardening of U.S. policy toward the government of Nicolás Maduro, with new economic sanctions and what has been described as the “full closure” of airspace over and around Venezuela — a measure aimed at airlines, pilots, and alleged traffickers — increasing pressure on Caracas and further complicating both air mobility and international commercial operations.

During her speech, Machado highlighted the resilience of the Venezuelan people, who “have suffered, but refuse to surrender,” and said the opposition is facing repression with “dignity and moral strength,” including “exiles and political prisoners who have been separated from their families and have given everything for the democratic cause.”

She also thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for recognizing that Venezuela’s transition is “a priority” and for his role as a “key figure in international pressure against the Maduro regime.”

“Is change coming? Absolutely yes,” Machado said, before concluding that “Venezuela will be free.”

International

Catalonia’s president calls for greater ambition in defending democracy

The President of the Generalitat of Catalonia, Salvador Illa, on Thursday called for being “more ambitious” in defending democracy, which he warned is being threatened “from within” by inequality, extremism, and hate speech driven by what he described as a “politics of intimidation,” on the final day of his visit to Mexico.

“The greatest threat to democracies is born within themselves. It is inequality and the winds of extremism. Both need each other and feed off one another,” Illa said during a speech at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mexico City.

In his address, Illa stated that in the face of extremism, society can adopt “two attitudes: hope or fear,” and warned that hate-driven rhetoric seeks to weaken citizens’ resolve. “We must be aware that hate speech, the politics of intimidation, and threats in the form of tariffs, the persecution of migrants, drones flying over Europe, or even war like the invasion of Ukraine, or walls at the border, all pursue the same goal: to make citizens give up and renounce who they want to be,” he added.

Despite these challenges, he urged people “not to lose hope,” emphasizing that there is a “better alternative,” which he summarized as “dialogue, institutional cooperation, peace, and human values.”

“I sincerely believe that we must be more ambitious in our defense of democracy, and that we must remember, demonstrate, and put into practice everything we are capable of doing. Never before has humanity accumulated so much knowledge, so much capacity, and so much power to shape the future,” Illa stressed.

For that reason, he called for a daily defense of the democratic system “at all levels and by each person according to their responsibility,” warning that democracy is currently facing an “existential threat.”