International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
Senate Bipartisan Vote Moves Measure to Block Further U.S. Military Action in Venezuela
The U.S. Senate took a significant step on Thursday toward limiting President Donald Trump’s military authority in Venezuela, advancing a bipartisan war powers resolution that would block further military actions without explicit congressional approval, lawmakers said.
In a 52-47 procedural vote, the measure moved forward after five Republican senators joined all Democrats in supporting the effort. The resolution aims to require presidential authorization from Congress before the United States can engage in any new hostilities against Venezuela, a rare rebuke of Trump from both sides of the aisle following the controversial military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
If ultimately passed, the legislation would obligate the administration to withdraw U.S. forces from any imminent hostilities in or against Venezuela unless Congress explicitly authorizes such actions. However, the measure’s future remains uncertain as it heads next to the House of Representatives, where a Republican majority is less likely to approve it, and any final version would likely face a presidential veto. Overriding a veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, a high threshold in the current political landscape.
President Trump has sharply criticized Republican senators who broke ranks to support the resolution, saying they should not be re-elected and arguing that the measure undermines his authority to act in national defense. Nevertheless, the vote signals growing bipartisan concern in Congress about unchecked executive military action in the absence of legislative authorization.
International
Petro and Trump Agree on Joint Action Against ELN Guerrillas After Tense Diplomacy
Colombian President Gustavo Petro and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump agreed on “joint actions” to combat the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group operating along the Colombia–Venezuela border, Colombia’s Interior Minister Armando Benedetti said on Thursday.
The announcement came after a period of heightened diplomatic tension triggered by recent U.S. airstrikes in Venezuela, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and threats of possible U.S. military action in Colombia. The phone call Wednesday evening was the first direct conversation between Petro and Trump since both leaders took office, and it helped ease the strained relationship.
During the call, both presidents committed to carry out joint efforts against the ELN, a guerrilla group that has repeatedly attacked Colombian security forces and is accused of kidnapping soldiers. In December, the ELN declared a “armed strike,” confining civilians in areas under its control in response to perceived threats of U.S. intervention.
According to Benedetti, Petro welcomed Trump’s invitation to meet in Washington and asked for U.S. support to “strike hard” against ELN positions along the porous border with Venezuela, where guerrillas often flee after clashes with Colombian forces.
The border region is a longstanding flashpoint, where armed groups, drug traffickers and illegal mining networks compete for control. Previous attempts by Petro’s government to negotiate peace with the ELN have stalled after a major offensive in Catatumbo that left hundreds dead and displaced thousands.
International
Lula Vetoes Bill That Would Have Shortened Bolsonaro’s Prison Sentence
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed on Thursday a bill that would have significantly reduced the prison sentence of his far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving time for attempting a coup d’état.
Despite the veto, the conservative-majority Congress retains the power to override the decision through a vote.
In September, following a landmark trial, Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison after finding him guilty of conspiring to remain in power in an “authoritarian” manner following his defeat to Lula in the 2022 presidential election.
The 70-year-old former president has been incarcerated in a Brasília prison since late November. Earlier this month, the Supreme Court rejected a request for house arrest on health grounds.
Under the current legal framework, Bolsonaro would be required to serve approximately eight years before becoming eligible for sentence leniency. However, a bill passed by Congress in December could have reduced that period to just over two years, prompting Lula’s veto.
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Petro and Trump Agree on Joint Action Against ELN Guerrillas After Tense Diplomacy
Lula Vetoes Bill That Would Have Shortened Bolsonaro’s Prison Sentence
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