International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Iran Reports 201 Dead, 747 Injured After U.S. and Israeli Strikes

The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported Sunday night (local time) that at least 201 people were killed and 747 injured following attacks carried out by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic.

A spokesperson for the humanitarian organization said more than 220 rescue teams have been deployed across affected areas and that relief operations are continuing without interruption. The official highlighted the difficulty of treating the large number of wounded and the urgent need for additional resources in impacted provinces.

Out of Iran’s 31 provinces, 24 have reported damage, according to a statement carried by the Isna news agency. This marks the first overall casualty toll released by Iranian state-affiliated media since the launch of the offensive.

Among the dead are 85 schoolgirls from a school in the southern city of Minab, according to the country’s judiciary. “The number of martyrs at the Minab girls’ school has risen to 85,” the local prosecutor’s office said, as quoted by the judiciary’s website, Mizan Online.

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian described the attack as a “savagery” that “constitutes a new black page in the record of countless crimes committed by the aggressors.”

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Meanwhile, the international community continues to monitor the situation closely amid concerns about possible further reprisals and the broader impact on Middle East stability, energy markets, and global security.

AFP noted that it was unable to independently verify the casualty figures or the circumstances surrounding the events.

International

Pope Leo XIV Urges End to ‘Spiral of Violence’ in Middle East

Pope Leo XIV on Sunday called for an end to the “spiral of violence” in the Middle East, following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran and subsequent retaliatory bombardments in the region.

“Faced with the possibility of a tragedy of enormous proportions, I urge the parties involved to assume their moral responsibility and stop the spiral of violence before it becomes an irreparable abyss,” the pontiff told the crowd gathered in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican.

Speaking during the Angelus prayer, the U.S.-born pope said stability and peace cannot be achieved through threats or weapons. “Stability and peace are not built with reciprocal threats or with arms that sow destruction, suffering and death, but only through reasonable, sincere and responsible dialogue,” he declared.

The leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics also called for diplomacy to “regain its role” amid escalating tensions.

In addition, the pope urged Afghanistan and Pakistan to urgently resume dialogue after several days of clashes between the two countries.

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International

Security Council to Hold Emergency Meeting on Middle East Crisis

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Saturday condemned the “military escalation in the Middle East” following attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, just hours before an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.

“I call for the immediate cessation of hostilities and de-escalation,” Guterres said in a statement.

The Security Council is scheduled to meet on Saturday at 21:00 GMT (4:00 p.m. in New York) to address “the situation in the Middle East,” the United Nations announced.

The meeting, during which Guterres will deliver remarks, was convened at the request of France, Bahrain, Colombia, Russia and China, according to a diplomatic source.