International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Bogotá and Quito Seek Dialogue After Tariffs and Power Cut Escalate Tensions

Bogotá and Quito will hold an emergency bilateral summit next week amid recent developments that have strained relations between the two countries.

Tensions escalated this week after Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa unexpectedly announced a 30% tariff on Colombian imports. Colombia responded with a reciprocal measure, imposing the same tariff on around 20 Ecuadorian products and suspending electricity exports to Ecuador.

Aware that electricity imports are critical to easing Ecuador’s recent energy crises, Quito further imposed a 30% tariff on the transportation of Colombian oil through its territory.

However, recent statements from the Ecuadorian government suggest that dialogue between the two sides has intensified in recent hours. Ecuador’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabriela Sommerfeld, confirmed that active conversations are under way.

In Colombia, segments of the business sector have welcomed the prospect of negotiations. The National Business Council (Consejo Gremial Nacional, CGN), for instance, urged both governments to restore commercial relations, warning that the dispute “puts jobs and regional economic stability at risk.”

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International

Trump-Era Defense Plan Prioritizes Border Security and Scales Back Global Commitments

The U.S. military will prioritize the defense of the homeland and the deterrence of China, while providing more limited support to its allies and elevating Latin America as a key focus of its agenda, according to a Pentagon strategic document released on Friday.

The 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS) represents a significant shift from previous Pentagon policies, both in its emphasis on allies assuming greater responsibility with reduced backing from Washington and in its more moderate tone toward traditional adversaries such as China and Russia.

“As U.S. forces focus on defending the homeland and the Indo-Pacific, allies and partners elsewhere will assume primary responsibility for their own defense, with crucial but more limited support from U.S. forces,” the document states.

The previous defense strategy, published during President Joe Biden’s administration, described China as Washington’s most consequential challenge and characterized Russia as an “acute threat.”

The new strategy, however, calls for maintaining “respectful relations” with Beijing and makes no reference to Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by China and allied with the United States. It also describes the threat posed by Russia as “persistent but manageable,” particularly affecting NATO’s eastern members.

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While both the Biden-era strategy and the Trump administration’s approach emphasize the importance of defending U.S. territory, they differ significantly in their assessment of the challenges facing the country.

The Trump administration’s NDS sharply criticizes the previous government for neglecting border security, arguing that this failure led to an “influx of illegal immigrants” and widespread narcotics trafficking.

International

Guatemala considers sending high-risk gang members to military prisons

Amid the escalating crisis in Guatemala’s prison system, the government is considering transferring high-risk gang members to military-run detention facilities, a move that analysts say could help address overcrowding and the lack of control in civilian prisons.

The debate has gained urgency following the killing of ten police officers by gang members, reportedly in retaliation after the government refused to meet demands made by Aldo Dupie Ochoa, alias “El Lobo,” leader of the Barrio 18 gang, which authorities identified as responsible for the attack.

Guatemala’s Minister of Defense, Henry David Sáenz, told local media that the possibility of relocating high-danger inmates to military brigades has not been formally discussed. However, he noted that the practice is not new to the Armed Forces and said it is something that “was already being done.”

One example is the detention center located within the Mariscal Zavala Military Brigade, in Zone 17 of Guatemala City, where several inmates are held under military supervision. The facility also houses high-profile detainees, including former official Eduardo Masaya, who faces corruption charges.

In 2015, a ministerial agreement authorized the establishment of the Zone Seventeen Detention Center within the brigade, with a maximum capacity of 114 inmates in Area A and 21 in Area B. The agreement specified that the facility would be used exclusively for civilians or military personnel considered at risk of assassination.

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Additionally, since 2010, a prison has operated within the Matamoros Barracks in Zone 1 of Guatemala City, holding dangerous or high-profile inmates. However, media outlets have described these military detention centers as “VIP prisons,” particularly for former government officials such as ex-president Otto Pérez Molina.