International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

IEA warns Middle East conflict could spark worst energy crisis in decades

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could trigger the worst energy crisis in decades, warned Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), who described the situation as “very serious.”

Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra, Birol compared the current scenario to the oil crises of the 1970s, noting that during those events the world lost around five million barrels of oil per day in each crisis.

“Today, we have lost 11 million barrels per day—more than the two major oil shocks combined,” he said.

The Turkish economist referred to the conflict that began on February 28, following attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran, which have significantly disrupted global energy markets and driven oil prices higher.

Birol warned that the global economy is facing a “very, very serious threat” and expressed hope that the crisis will be resolved soon.

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“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues in this direction. Global efforts are urgently needed,” he emphasized.

International

Colombian Air Force Hercules plane crashes during takeoff with troops onboard

A Lockheed C-130 Hercules operated by the Colombian Air Force was involved in a “tragic accident” while taking off from Puerto Leguízamo, in the Putumayo department of southern Colombia, as it was transporting troops, Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez reported on Monday.

The minister stated on social media that the exact number of victims and the causes of the crash have not yet been determined. He also extended his condolences to the families affected and urged the public to avoid speculation until official information is confirmed.

“This is a deeply painful event for the country. Our prayers are with the victims and their families,” Sánchez said, adding that emergency protocols have been activated and an investigation is underway.

Meanwhile, President Gustavo Petro expressed hope that there would be no fatalities in what he described as a “horrific accident that should not have happened.”

Petro also highlighted ongoing efforts to modernize the country’s air fleet and reiterated the need to acquire new helicopters and transport aircraft to strengthen military mobility, particularly in remote regions.

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According to local media reports, approximately 110 soldiers were on board the aircraft. So far, at least 20 injured military personnel have been rescued.

International

Paris prosecutors alert U.S. over alleged deepfake strategy linked to Elon Musk

The Paris Prosecutor’s Office said on Saturday that it had alerted authorities in the United States over suspicions that tech entrepreneur Elon Musk may have encouraged the spread of sexualized deepfake content on the social platform X to artificially boost the company’s valuation.

According to prosecutors, the controversy surrounding explicit AI-generated videos—reportedly linked to Grok, the platform’s artificial intelligence system—may have been deliberately triggered to increase the market value of X and X AI.

The office added that the alleged strategy could be tied to the planned June 2026 public listing of a new entity formed through the merger of SpaceX and X AI.

French authorities said they contacted the U.S. Department of Justice as well as legal representatives at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) earlier this week to share their concerns.

Responding on X in French to a report about the case, Musk referred to French prosecutors using an offensive term.

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When contacted, X’s legal representative in France did not immediately comment.

Grok, the platform’s AI system, has its own account on X, allowing users to interact with it or request content generation. For a period, users were able to tag the bot in posts to generate or edit images, a feature that may have facilitated the spread of such material.