International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
Cuba accuses U.S. of pressuring countries ahead of UN vote on embargo
The Cuban government on Wednesday accused the United States of exerting “intimidating and deceptive pressure” on third countries to vote against the annual UN General Assembly resolution calling for an end to U.S. sanctions on the island.
In a statement to the international press, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez claimed that Havana possesses “reliable information” about Washington’s efforts to pressure countries in Latin America and Europe ahead of the vote.
The non-binding resolution, presented every year by Cuba since 1992, has consistently received overwhelming supportfrom the international community — with 187 votes in favor and only two against (the U.S. and Israel) in recent years. The next vote is scheduled to take place on October 28.
Rodríguez described the resolution as a diplomatic victory for Cuba despite its lack of practical effect, and asserted that his government had obtained U.S. documents sent to other nations urging them to “change their historical position” on the issue.
According to the foreign minister, the United States has allegedly “coerced allied nations” in recent weeks using tactics such as visa denials, trade tariffs, and pressure on private companies.
He further stated that in two written communications, dated October 8 and 17, Washington explicitly urged the recipients to “reject” the Cuban resolution “in accordance with applicable legal measures.”
Central America
U.S. and Panama hold joint jungle exercises to strengthen security ties
U.S. and Panamanian security forces carried out joint exercises in Panama’s jungle on Wednesday, focusing on the exchange of specialized knowledge as part of renewed bilateral cooperation in security and defense, according to official statements.
Joint operations between the two nations—Panama, which has had no standing army since 1990, and the United States—have been frequent since the 1989 U.S. invasion. The latest drills come after both countries renewed their security cooperation last April through a memorandum of understanding, which initially sparked some controversy in Panama due to provisions allowing greater temporary and rotational U.S. military presence.
The exercises also coincide with an unprecedented U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean, part of Washington’s expanded anti-narcotics campaign, which it links to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government—currently the target of a $50 million U.S. reward offer.
“We are simply focused on creating mutual understanding and shared experiences that can be beneficial for both countries, Panama and the United States,” said U.S. Colonel Ada Cotton during a press briefing.
The U.S. contingent, composed of Marines and an Army officer, participated at the invitation of the Panamanian government, which, according to Cotton, “has clearly defined what we can and cannot do” during the training exercises.
International
Colombia conducts nationwide emergency drill focused on hidroituango dam
Colombians took part on Wednesday in the National Emergency Response Drill, an exercise aimed at enhancing citizens’ ability to react to risk situations and promoting a culture of prevention.
According to the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD), the drill was conducted throughout the country.
This year’s main focus was Hidroituango, Colombia’s largest hydroelectric power plant, located in a mountainous canyon in the municipality of Ituango, in the northwestern department of Antioquia.
The head of the UNGRD, Carlos Carrillo, oversaw the exercise at Hidroituango, which is powered by the Cauca River, the country’s second most important waterway after the Magdalena.
“We simulated a rise in the Cauca River’s water level,” Carrillo explained, noting that evacuation sirens sounded at 7:30 a.m. local time (12:30 GMT) and that five municipalities upstream and five downstreamtook part in the drill.
Personnel operating the hydroelectric plant’s machinery also evacuated their work areas as part of the exercise.
Carrillo emphasized that the data collected during the simulation will be crucial to assess and strengthen the response capabilities of local governments and communities.
Cuba accuses U.S. of pressuring countries ahead of UN vote on embargo
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