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Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

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International

Maduro, Delcy Rodríguez sued in Florida over alleged kidnapping, torture and terrorism

U.S. citizens have revived a lawsuit in Miami against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro following his capture, as well as against Vice President and now acting leader Delcy Rodríguez and other senior Chavista officials, whom they accuse of kidnapping, torture, and terrorism.

The plaintiffs — including U.S. citizens who were kidnapped in Venezuela and two minors — filed a motion over the weekend before the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida asking the court to declare the defendants in default for failing to respond to the lawsuit initially filed on August 14, 2025, according to court documents made public on Monday.

The case, assigned to Judge Darrin P. Gayles, accuses the Venezuelan leaders of violating the U.S. Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA), the Florida Anti-Terrorism Act, and the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO).

In addition to Maduro and Rodríguez, the lawsuit names Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López; Attorney General Tarek William Saab; Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello; former Supreme Court Chief Justice Maikel Moreno; and National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez.

The complaint also lists the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and former Electricity Minister Néstor Reverol as defendants.

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According to the filing, Maduro “committed flagrant acts of terrorism against U.S. citizens,” citing the criminal case in New York in which Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared in court for the first time on Monday following their arrest on Saturday.

The lawsuit claims that the plaintiffs “were held captive by Maduro” with “illegal material support” from the other defendants, whom it identifies as members of the Cartel of the Suns, a group designated by the United States as a terrorist organization last year.

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International

U.S. faces worst flu season in decades as new strain spreads nationwide

The flu continues to take a heavy toll across the United States, with all but four states reporting high or very high levels of activity as a new viral strain known as subclade K continues to spread.

According to another key indicator — doctor visits for fever accompanied by cough or sore throat, common flu symptoms — the U.S. is experiencing its highest level of respiratory illness since at least the 1997–98 flu season, based on data released Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

“This is definitely a standout year,” said Dr. Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “It’s the worst we’ve seen in at least 20 years. Most of the country is experiencing very high levels of activity, and we are still near the peak.”

Rivers noted that it is unusual to see such a severe flu season following another poor season the previous year, as intense seasons typically do not occur back to back.

Nationwide, approximately 8.2% of doctor visits during the final week of the year were for flu-like symptoms. At the same point last season — which was also severe — that figure stood at 6.7%.

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In Massachusetts, where flu activity is reported as very high, health officials urged residents to get vaccinated.

“This is a moment for clarity, urgency, and action,” said Dr. Robbie Goldstein, Commissioner of Public Health, in a press release. “These viruses are serious, dangerous, and potentially deadly. We are seeing critically ill children, families grieving devastating losses, and hospitals under strain due to capacity.”

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International

U.S. Energy Secretary to meet oil executives on reviving Venezuela’s crude industry

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright is set to meet this week with executives from the American oil industry to discuss how to revive Venezuela’s crude oil sector, according to multiple media reports.

The meeting will take place on the sidelines of an energy conference organized by investment banking group Goldman Sachs in Miami.

Senior executives from major U.S. oil companies, including Chevron and ConocoPhillips, are expected to attend the symposium.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 300 to 303 billion barrels, representing roughly one-fifth of known global reserves.

Following the controversial operation carried out on Saturday to detain Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, U.S. President Donald Trump has placed renewed emphasis on control over and exploitation of Venezuela’s vast oil resources.

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