International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Federal immigration agents kill man in Minneapolis, sparking protests and outrage

Federal immigration agents shot and killed a 37-year-old Minneapolis man during an operation on Saturday, authorities confirmed, sparking new protests and deepening outrage over federal immigration enforcement in the city.

The victim, identified as Alex Jeffrey Pretti, was a U.S. citizen and intensive care nurse who worked at a Veterans Affairs hospital and was widely respected in his community, according to colleagues and news reports.

Officials said the shooting occurred during a targeted immigration raid in south Minneapolis. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) described the incident as an act of self-defense by agents who believed the man posed a threat.

However, videos reviewed by multiple outlets and eyewitnesses show Pretti holding a phone and not displaying a weapon before being pepper-sprayed, tackled by agents and then shot multiple times, raising serious questions about the official account.

The killing comes amid a broader federal immigration enforcement operation in the city and follows another controversial shooting in early January in which Renée Good, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen, was fatally shot by an ICE agent, leading to widespread protests and criticism of federal tactics.

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International

Delcy Rodríguez seeks political agreements after Maduro’s ouster

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, on Saturday called for “reaching agreements” with the opposition to achieve “peace” in the country, which the United States says it now controls following the military operation that removed President Nicolás Maduro from power.

Rodríguez, who previously served as Maduro’s vice president, assumed interim leadership after the leftist leader was captured on January 3 during a military incursion that left nearly 100 people dead.

In her first public statements since taking office, Rodríguez signaled a shift in the strained relationship between Caracas and Washington, while also committing to the release of a “significant number” of political prisoners.

“There can be no political or partisan differences when it comes to the peace of Venezuela,” Rodríguez said during an address in the coastal state of La Guaira, broadcast on state television VTV.

“From our differences, we must speak to one another with respect. From our differences, we must meet and reach agreements,” she added.

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The day before, Rodríguez instructed the head of Parliament — her brother Jorge Rodríguez — to convene talks with various political sectors in the country aimed at achieving “concrete and immediate results.”

International

Bogotá and Quito Seek Dialogue After Tariffs and Power Cut Escalate Tensions

Bogotá and Quito will hold an emergency bilateral summit next week amid recent developments that have strained relations between the two countries.

Tensions escalated this week after Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa unexpectedly announced a 30% tariff on Colombian imports. Colombia responded with a reciprocal measure, imposing the same tariff on around 20 Ecuadorian products and suspending electricity exports to Ecuador.

Aware that electricity imports are critical to easing Ecuador’s recent energy crises, Quito further imposed a 30% tariff on the transportation of Colombian oil through its territory.

However, recent statements from the Ecuadorian government suggest that dialogue between the two sides has intensified in recent hours. Ecuador’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabriela Sommerfeld, confirmed that active conversations are under way.

In Colombia, segments of the business sector have welcomed the prospect of negotiations. The National Business Council (Consejo Gremial Nacional, CGN), for instance, urged both governments to restore commercial relations, warning that the dispute “puts jobs and regional economic stability at risk.”