International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

U.S. Sanctions Network Linked to Fentanyl Trafficking Across India, Guatemala and Mexico

The United States Department of State announced sanctions on Thursday against 23 individuals and companies allegedly linked to an international fentanyl production and smuggling network operating in India, Guatemala and Mexico.

According to the State Department, the network supplied precursor chemicals to the Sinaloa Cartel, which the United States has designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

Washington declared fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, a weapon of mass destruction last year due to its role in the ongoing overdose crisis in the United States.

“By targeting the entire supply chain — from chemical suppliers in Asia to logistical intermediaries in Central America and cartel-linked networks in Mexico — the Trump Administration is dismantling networks that destabilize governance across our hemisphere and threaten U.S. security,” the State Department said.

In a separate statement, the Office of Foreign Assets Control detailed sanctions against three Indian chemical and pharmaceutical companies: Sutaria, Agrat and SR Chemicals, along with a sales executive accused of supplying precursor chemicals to contacts in Guatemala and Mexico.

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In Guatemala, authorities sanctioned J and C Import and Central Logística de Servicios, as well as intermediary Jaime Augusto Barrientos.

The OFAC also designated several intermediaries and import companies operating in the Mexican state of Sinaloa.

As part of the investigation, U.S. authorities identified Ramiro Baltazar Félix as a member of Los Mayos, a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, and Alejandro Reynoso, accused of operating clandestine drug laboratories in Guadalajara.

International

Pope Leo XIV Says Countries Have Border Rights but Migrants Deserve Respect

Pope Leo XIV said Thursday that migrants must be treated with dignity as he addressed the global migration crisis during a press conference aboard the plane returning from his tour of Africa.

The pontiff answered questions from journalists regarding his upcoming trip to Spain, which will include a visit to the Canary Islands, a region heavily affected by migration flows and growing political polarization surrounding the issue.

“Obviously, migration is a very complex issue and affects many countries — not only Spain, not only Europe, but also the United States. It is a global phenomenon,” the pope said.

Pope Leo XIV also questioned the role of developed nations in addressing the crisis.

“My response begins with a question: What is the Global North doing to help the Global South and those countries where young people no longer see a future and dream of going north, even when the North sometimes has no answers to offer?” he asked.

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While acknowledging that “a state has the right to establish rules for its borders,” the pope insisted that the debate must go beyond border control and address the structural causes that force people to leave their home countries.

International

Authorities Say Teotihuacán Gunman Was Obsessed With Mass Shootings and Extremist Symbolism

Julio César Jasso Ramírez, identified by authorities as the gunman behind the armed attack at the archaeological site of Teotihuacán, had allegedly spent years building a personal narrative shaped by an obsession with historical mass shootings, extremist symbolism, and an increasing detachment from reality.

According to preliminary findings from the Fiscalía General de Justicia del Estado de México, the 27-year-old suspect, originally from the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, acted alone and appeared to have carefully planned the attack.

Investigators also pointed to signs of a severe psychological or psychiatric disorder. One official involved in the case stated that the suspect seemed to live in “his own reality,” disconnected from the world around him.

“I would not speak of a motive; I would speak of psychopathy, a condition, an illness,” the official said while discussing the ongoing investigation.

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Authorities reported that Jasso Ramírez was allegedly fixated on mass violence incidents that occurred outside Mexico, particularly in the United States.

Among the items found in his possession were writings, images, and materials reportedly linked to the Columbine High School massacre, the school shooting that took place on April 20, 1999.

The investigation remains ongoing as authorities continue analyzing evidence connected to the suspect’s background and mental state.