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Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

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International

President Noboa Declares New Security Strategy as Ecuador Faces Record Violence Levels

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on Tuesday declared the National Comprehensive Security Plan 2025-2029 as a nationwide public policy, a strategy aimed at guiding state actions on security matters over the next four years.

The measure was formalized through an executive decree that activates the plan approved on March 9 by the Public and State Security Council (Cosepe) and replaces the National Comprehensive Security Plan 2019-2030, which had been designated as public policy in 2021.

Under the new decree, implementation of the strategy will be led by the ministries of Interior, Defense, and Foreign Affairs and Human Mobility, along with the National Intelligence Center and the National Secretariat for Risk Management. These institutions will be responsible for coordinating actions according to their respective areas of responsibility.

According to the official document, the new plan adopts a multidimensional and comprehensive security approach, with a long-term vision focused on national interests and on strengthening the State’s ability to respond to current threats.

The Ecuadorian government said the strategy seeks to improve coordination among public institutions within the framework of the “internal armed conflict” declared by Noboa in 2024 as part of the fight against criminal organizations operating across the country.

The plan also includes measures to strengthen international cooperation against transnational organized crime, which authorities identify as one of Ecuador’s main security challenges due to its links to drug trafficking and illegal mining.

The government described the document as a roadmap for prevention, protection, response and recovery actions in the face of national security risks, promoting coordinated efforts among state institutions.

Ecuador has remained under an internal armed conflict declaration since 2024, when Noboa intensified operations against criminal gangs that his administration has labeled terrorist organizations. Despite the increased security measures, the country recorded around 9,300 homicides in 2025, the highest figure in its history, according to data from the Ministry of Interior.

The new security plan comes as Ecuador seeks to strengthen its institutional response to escalating violence and the growing influence of organized crime networks.

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International

Foreign Medical Teams Race to Prevent Health Crisis in Venezuela Earthquake Camps

More than two weeks after the twin earthquakes that devastated parts of Venezuela and left thousands of people without homes, medical teams from several countries are working to prevent a potential health crisis in temporary shelters where survivors are living in precarious conditions.

The magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes that struck on June 24 have left more than 4,561 people dead and 16,740 injured, according to the latest government figures. The hardest-hit area has been La Guaira state, located near Caracas and considered the epicenter of the disaster.

Field hospitals from El Salvador, Mexico, the United States, Brazil and Spain are now facing the challenge of containing respiratory illnesses, gastrointestinal problems and psychological conditions linked to the tragedy.

Among those affected is 54-year-old Darwin López, one of nearly 18,000 Venezuelans who lost their homes and are now living in crowded emergency shelters set up in stadiums, parks, public squares and even sidewalks across La Guaira.

During the first three days after the earthquakes, López focused on rescuing his 44-year-old wife and their three-year-old child from the rubble of the building where they lived.

On Friday, he took another of his children, a 35-year-old man, to a U.S.-operated mobile hospital after he developed severe stomach pain.

“He had a strong stomach ache, and I took him to Pariata Hospital in La Guaira, but it was overwhelmed. So they gave us this alternative,” López told AFP while waiting outside a Samaritan’s Purse field hospital installed in large white tents.

Doctors are now treating him and his family hopes the condition is not serious, although López fears it may have been caused by contaminated food or unsafe water.

In the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, international medical teams focused primarily on treating severe trauma cases, fractures and performing emergency surgeries. However, their priorities have now shifted toward addressing post-disaster illnesses and implementing epidemiological monitoring programs to reduce the risk of disease outbreaks.

Health authorities and humanitarian organizations warn that overcrowded shelters, limited access to clean water and difficult living conditions could increase the possibility of respiratory and gastrointestinal outbreaks among thousands of displaced survivors.

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International

France Holds Largest Bastille Day Military Parade as Europe Highlights Strategic Defense

France held its largest-ever Bastille Day military parade on Tuesday, with nearly 6,700 troops, 98 aircraft, 31 helicopters and 315 military vehicles marching along the iconic route from the Arc de Triomphe to Place de la Concorde.

The annual parade, held to commemorate the storming of the Bastille prison in 1789, which marked the beginning of the French Revolution, was centered this year on France’s defense capabilities and Europe’s growing security challenges.

According to the Élysée Palace, the event aimed to highlight “France’s rearmament, France’s strategic autonomy and the strategic awakening of Europe.”

Among the main guests in the presidential stand was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who received a warm welcome upon his arrival, including a greeting from French First Lady Brigitte Macron and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

Zelensky was joined by 24 European heads of state and government, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The parade also featured military contingents from 35 countries, with around 500 international participants, as well as 25 Ukrainian soldiers who took part in the ceremony.

The event came one day after a new summit in Paris of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” a group of countries committed to supporting Ukraine over the long term. Some members of the coalition have considered deploying troops to Ukraine once a ceasefire agreement with Russia is reached.

The large-scale celebration reflected France’s efforts to reinforce its role in European defense and underline unity among allies amid ongoing security concerns across the continent.

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