International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

US panel backs Trump-themed coin amid controversy

The United States Department of the Treasury confirmed to AFP that the Commission of Fine Arts approved the design of a new collectible coin featuring Donald Trump, with members of the commission appointed by the current administration.

According to the proposal, the coin will feature an image of Trump standing with clenched fists over a desk on the obverse, while the reverse will display an eagle, a traditional symbol of the United States.

The sale price of the collectible has not yet been disclosed, although the United States Mint typically offers similar items for more than $1,000.

“There is no more iconic portrait for the front of these coins than that of our president Donald Trump,” U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach said in a statement sent to AFP. He added that two additional coins — a $1 piece and a one-ounce gold coin — are also under consideration.

However, the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC), another body responsible for reviewing new coin proposals, declined to discuss the Trump design in late February.

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“Only nations governed by kings or dictators place the image of a sitting leader on their currency,” said Donald Scarinciat the time. “No country in the world has minted coins featuring a democratically elected leader during their term in office,” he added.

When contacted by AFP, the Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for further comment.

International

Fed’s Waller warns of rising inflation risks amid Middle East conflict

Christopher Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said Friday that he is increasingly concerned about the inflationary impact of the ongoing conflict involving United States and Israel against Iran, particularly due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Waller, who had supported interest rate cuts over the past year amid concerns about the labor market, said he has shifted his stance in recent weeks due to rising inflation risks.

“Since the Strait of Hormuz was closed, it suggests this conflict could be much more prolonged and that oil prices will remain elevated for longer,” Waller said in an interview with CNBC.

“Therefore, this indicates that inflation is a greater concern than I had previously assessed,” he added.

Waller also backed the Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this week to keep interest rates unchanged, signaling a more cautious approach as global geopolitical tensions continue to affect economic outlooks.

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International

Brazil offers to mediate Colombia-Ecuador tensions, calls for restraint

The government of Brazil has offered to mediate in the ongoing tensions between Colombia and Ecuador, while calling on both nations to exercise restraint.

In a statement released Wednesday, Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the parties involved to act with moderation and seek a peaceful resolution to the dispute.

“Brazil encourages all sides to act with moderation in order to find a peaceful solution to the controversy. It stands ready to support dialogue efforts aimed at preserving peace and security in the region,” the statement said.

Brazil also expressed “serious concern” over reports of deaths in the border area between Colombia and Ecuador, noting that the circumstances surrounding the incidents have not yet been clarified.

The diplomatic move comes amid rising tensions between the neighboring countries, increasing regional concern over stability and security along their shared border.