International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
“Promises delivered”: Milei celebrates milestone and pushes ahead with structural reforms
Argentine President Javier Milei marked the second anniversary of his victory in the November 19, 2023 presidential election on Wednesday, declaring that he has fulfilled “every campaign promise” even before reaching the halfway point of his term.
In a message posted on his official X account, Milei stated that his administration set out from day one to implement its political program without concessions. “We have dedicated ourselves to fulfilling every campaign promise, to the point that they were completed in less than two years, despite the entire status quo’s obstruction machine,” the president wrote.
Milei won the runoff election with 55.65% of the vote, defeating then–Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who received 44.35%. He officially took office on December 10, 2023, describing himself as the “first libertarian liberal president in the history of humanity.”
The head of state also highlighted the performance of his party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), in the October 26 legislative elections, where it secured more than 40% of the votes. This result, he said, gives him the momentum to advance toward a new phase of “structural reforms.”
“We renew our commitment to all Argentines to implement all second-generation reforms so that, once and for all, we enter the path that will make Argentina great again,” Milei wrote, reaffirming his push for a deep transformation of the country’s economic model.
During his presidential campaign, Milei pledged to drastically shrink the size of the state, carry out sweeping labor and tax reforms, and radically overhaul economic policy through a “fiscal shock” plan aimed at controlling inflation and achieving a budget surplus.
International
Haitian authorities mobilize nationwide as gangs threaten confrontation with police
Haiti’s National Police (PNH) declared a state of maximum alert after the leader of the Viv Ansanm armed coalition, Jimmy Chérizier — known as “Barbecue” — urged the population to stay indoors amid the prospect of clashes with security forces carrying out an offensive against gang groups.
The threats came days after the PNH, the Haitian Armed Forces (FAD’H), and the Gang Suppression Force (GSF) launched a large-scale operation against the 400 Mawozo gang, which for years has controlled and kidnapped residents in Tabarre and Croix-des-Bouquets, north of the capital.
The police announced the suspension of all vacations and leave for officers “in order to mobilize all police personnel, with the goal of ensuring optimal security for the population and responding to any eventuality.” Authorities reported that operations will continue specifically in Croix-des-Bouquets, territory controlled by 400 Mawozo under the command of Lanmò Sanjou.
In recent days, security forces located and raided several hideouts used by criminal groups, managing to kill or force the retreat of gang members from strategic areas. Police Director General Vladimir Paraison visited the barracks of the units involved in the operations to express his “appreciation for the courage and commitment of the police in their relentless battles to restore order and uphold the law.”
Chérizier — for whom the United States has offered a $5 million reward — urged citizens on Sunday to remain in their homes so the gangs could confront police forces and “avoid becoming victims.”
“The time has come, Haitian people, to unite to liberate this country,” he declared in a message shared on social media.
International
U.S. House poised to approve bill requiring declassification of Epstein files
A group of lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives said on Tuesday that a bill requiring the Department of Justice to declassify documents related to the case of billionaire Jeffrey Epstein is expected to pass with “overwhelming” support.
Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, the sponsor of the proposal, urged the Senate not to allow delays or amendments. “I expect it to pass by an overwhelming majority in the House. I don’t want politicians playing games with this. They need to pass it in the Senate without changes,” he said from Capitol Hill, joined by Republicans Thomas Massie, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and several Epstein victims.
The vote is scheduled for Tuesday at 2:00 p.m. local time, after 218 lawmakers from both parties forced House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring the measure to the floor.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been criticized by Democrats for his past friendship with Epstein, stated that he would sign the bill if it passes both chambers of Congress. His support came after a shift in his position, following his name appearing in leaked documents.
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a frequent ally of the president, publicly confronted Trump in recent days over the issue. Standing alongside several Epstein victims, she defended her backing of the bill despite Trump calling her a “traitor.” “These women have fought the most horrible battle that no woman should ever have to fight (…) even against the president of the United States,” she said.
Taylor Greene added that the “real test” will be whether the Department of Justice complies with releasing the documents once the bill is enacted. “Or everything will remain sealed under the pretext of ongoing investigations,” she warned.
Haley Robson, one of the victims, also spoke during the press event. “I’m traumatized, I’m not stupid,” she said firmly, arguing that attempts by certain sectors to delay the process have caused tremendous emotional harm. “This is not political. This is America. This is the land of freedom,” she stated.
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