International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

German president says trust in U.S. leadership is ‘lost’ amid global tensions

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Tuesday that trust between the United States and its Western allies has been “lost,” warning that the damage could persist beyond the presidency of Donald Trump.

“The rupture is very deep, and the loss of trust in U.S. great power policy is significant—not only among its allies, but also, as I observe, globally,” Steinmeier said during a speech in Berlin marking the 75th anniversary of Germany’s Foreign Ministry.

Referring to the future of transatlantic relations, he stated that “there is no return to the situation before January 20, 2025,” the date marking the start of Trump’s second term in the White House.

“Even a future U.S. administration will no longer be able to resume the role of a benevolent hegemon guaranteeing a liberal international order,” added Steinmeier, who previously served as Germany’s foreign minister.

He also criticized the war against Iran, describing it as “contrary to international law” and calling it “a political mistake with serious consequences.”

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“This war is avoidable and unnecessary,” he said.

Although the German presidency is largely ceremonial, Steinmeier’s remarks reflect a broader concern within Germany, aligning with the government’s cautious stance while going further in tone.

International

Trump claims talks with Iran as G7 meets to address global tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States has held talks with Iran—a claim denied by Tehran—and has temporarily paused his threat to target the country’s electrical infrastructure.

In his first overseas trip since the United States and Israel launched their offensive on February 28, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to address key global issues, including the situation in the Middle East, according to State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott.

Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven will meet in Cernay-la-Ville, close to Versailles, on the outskirts of Paris.

During the meeting, Rubio will hold discussions with his counterparts on “the war between Russia and Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and threats to global peace and stability,” Pigott said.

France currently holds the presidency of the G7, whose members also include the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Japan.

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Although all G7 nations are close allies of the United States, none has offered explicit support for Washington’s military actions against Iran, a stance that has reportedly frustrated Trump.

Last Saturday, G7 foreign ministers called for an “immediate and unconditional end” to Iranian attacks against U.S. allies in the Middle East.

International

Pentagon to deploy 3,000 troops to Persian Gulf as Middle East tensions escalate

The Pentagon is planning to deploy nearly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Persian Gulf, according to two senior officials cited Tuesday by Spanish newspaper El País.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah warned it would confront any attempt at occupation following Israel’s announcement that its military will take control of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, located about 30 kilometers from the border.

In recent hours, the Israel Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on Beirut, while Iran and Hezbollah responded with attacks on Israel, leaving at least six people with minor injuries in Tel Aviv.

The escalation comes as global markets react to renewed instability. The price of oil rose again above $100 per barrel after a brief decline the previous day, following an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of a five-day truce on attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Despite the announcement, Iranian authorities reported that two projectiles struck a gas pipeline in Khorramshahr and administrative buildings at a gas facility in Isfahan early Tuesday.