International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Trump orders U.S. control of Strait of Hormuz after failed Iran talks

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the United States will take control of the Strait of Hormuz“effective immediately,” following the collapse of negotiations with Iran held in Islamabad.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had ordered the U.S. Navy to block vessels attempting to enter or exit the strategic waterway, a key route for global energy trade.

“The meeting went well, agreement was reached on most points, but the only really important one — nuclear weapons — was not approved,” Trump said, referring to the talks with Iranian representatives.

The president also stated that he had instructed authorities to intercept ships in international waters that had paid tolls to Iran to transit the strait, calling such payments “illegal.” He further accused Tehran of hindering an agreement by deploying mines in the area, describing the move as “international extortion.”

Trump added that the United States will undertake efforts to clear mines from the strait and expressed confidence that a future agreement ensuring free navigation could eventually be reached.

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The announcement came after Vice President JD Vance and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner briefed the president on the outcome of the negotiations, considered the highest-level contacts between the two countries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

While Trump acknowledged that enough progress had been made to maintain a temporary truce, he criticized Iran for remaining unwilling to abandon its nuclear ambitions, calling its position “very inflexible” on the central issue.

International

Child Found Malnourished in Van in France; Father Admits Confinement

French gendarmes discovered a child in a van in Hagenbach, in northeastern France, after a neighbor reported hearing what she described as “childlike noises” coming from the parked vehicle.

After unlocking the van, officers found the boy lying in a fetal position, unclothed and covered with a blanket, surrounded by garbage and near human waste, according to a statement from the Mulhouse prosecutor, Nicolas Heitz.

Authorities said the child appeared pale and severely malnourished. Due to prolonged confinement in a seated position, he was no longer able to walk. He was immediately taken to a hospital in Mulhouse for medical care.

The boy’s father, who lived with his partner and two daughters aged 10 and 12, admitted to keeping the child confined and depriving him of proper care.

According to the prosecutor, the man said he placed the child in the van in November 2024, claiming he wanted to “protect him” because his partner intended to have the boy admitted to a psychiatric facility.

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The suspect also stated that he allowed the child out of the vehicle in May 2025 and permitted him to enter the family apartment around mid-year, when the rest of the family was on vacation.

The man’s partner—who is not the child’s mother—also faces charges, including failure to report abuse. However, she has denied all accusations.

International

Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Risk Amid Hormuz Disruption

The Airports Council International Europe has warned of a potential “systemic shortage” of jet fuel if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored within the next three weeks, according to a letter reviewed by AFP on Friday.

In the document, addressed to the European Commission and first reported by the Financial Times, the European airport lobby stated that a “systemic jet fuel shortage will become a reality” in the European Union unless stable and significant transit through the strait resumes soon.

The association, which represents around 600 airports across 50 countries, called on Brussels to implement “urgent monitoring of fuel availability and supply” over the next six months.

Jet fuel prices have surged amid the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transport.

The conflict escalated on February 28 following joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran.

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In response, Tehran imposed several countermeasures, including blocking maritime traffic through the strait, a route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil, jet fuel, and gas supply passes.