International
Waiting game: US election results could take days
| By AFP | Paul Handley |
Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.
Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner.
Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.
But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”
The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.
Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.
Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud — the process has become more politically fraught.
In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence.
“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.
Mail-in ballots
Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.
But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.
Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.
In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.
Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.
According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.
States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.
In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.
That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.
Georgia runoff
Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.
But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.
In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.
Recounts, legal challenges
Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.
With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.
In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.
Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.
In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted.
International
German president says trust in U.S. leadership is ‘lost’ amid global tensions
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Tuesday that trust between the United States and its Western allies has been “lost,” warning that the damage could persist beyond the presidency of Donald Trump.
“The rupture is very deep, and the loss of trust in U.S. great power policy is significant—not only among its allies, but also, as I observe, globally,” Steinmeier said during a speech in Berlin marking the 75th anniversary of Germany’s Foreign Ministry.
Referring to the future of transatlantic relations, he stated that “there is no return to the situation before January 20, 2025,” the date marking the start of Trump’s second term in the White House.
“Even a future U.S. administration will no longer be able to resume the role of a benevolent hegemon guaranteeing a liberal international order,” added Steinmeier, who previously served as Germany’s foreign minister.
He also criticized the war against Iran, describing it as “contrary to international law” and calling it “a political mistake with serious consequences.”
“This war is avoidable and unnecessary,” he said.
Although the German presidency is largely ceremonial, Steinmeier’s remarks reflect a broader concern within Germany, aligning with the government’s cautious stance while going further in tone.
International
Trump claims talks with Iran as G7 meets to address global tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States has held talks with Iran—a claim denied by Tehran—and has temporarily paused his threat to target the country’s electrical infrastructure.
In his first overseas trip since the United States and Israel launched their offensive on February 28, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to address key global issues, including the situation in the Middle East, according to State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott.
Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven will meet in Cernay-la-Ville, close to Versailles, on the outskirts of Paris.
During the meeting, Rubio will hold discussions with his counterparts on “the war between Russia and Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and threats to global peace and stability,” Pigott said.
France currently holds the presidency of the G7, whose members also include the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Japan.
Although all G7 nations are close allies of the United States, none has offered explicit support for Washington’s military actions against Iran, a stance that has reportedly frustrated Trump.
Last Saturday, G7 foreign ministers called for an “immediate and unconditional end” to Iranian attacks against U.S. allies in the Middle East.
International
Pentagon to deploy 3,000 troops to Persian Gulf as Middle East tensions escalate
The Pentagon is planning to deploy nearly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Persian Gulf, according to two senior officials cited Tuesday by Spanish newspaper El País.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah warned it would confront any attempt at occupation following Israel’s announcement that its military will take control of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, located about 30 kilometers from the border.
In recent hours, the Israel Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on Beirut, while Iran and Hezbollah responded with attacks on Israel, leaving at least six people with minor injuries in Tel Aviv.
The escalation comes as global markets react to renewed instability. The price of oil rose again above $100 per barrel after a brief decline the previous day, following an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of a five-day truce on attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Despite the announcement, Iranian authorities reported that two projectiles struck a gas pipeline in Khorramshahr and administrative buildings at a gas facility in Isfahan early Tuesday.
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