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Waiting game: US election results could take days

Photo: Jeff Kowalsky / AFP

| By AFP | Paul Handley |

Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.

Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner. 

Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.

But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”

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The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.

Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.

Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud —  the process has become more politically fraught.

In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence. 

“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.

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Mail-in ballots

Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.

But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.

Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.

In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.

Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.

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According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.

States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.

In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.

That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.

Georgia runoff

Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.  

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But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.

In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.

Recounts, legal challenges

Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.

With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.

In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.  

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Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.

In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted. 

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International

The US Supreme Court gives the green light to Trump to dismantle the Department of Education

The US Supreme Court allowed President Donald Trump to go ahead with his plan of mass layoffs in the Department of Education, which until now was blocked by an order from a lower court.

The decision overturned a temporary blocking resolution issued by a federal judge in Massachusetts in response to a class action from about twenty states, teachers’ unions and school districts.

The opinion so far prevented the federal government from carrying out the plan it announced at the end of March to cut, this year alone, a third of the more than 4,100 workers in this portfolio.

The Trump Administration’s plan, which has admitted that it cannot close the Department because that is the responsibility of Congress, involves dismantling the agency to the point that it only maintains basic competences related, for example, to the management of aid, scholarships or student loans.

The long-term project is to cut half of the staff working in this portfolio with the idea of eliminating what the Government, which wants to return educational skills to the states, considers a waste of the federal budget.

As usual in cases that are resolved by emergency channels, the majority of judges in favor of the ruling did not explain the basis of their decision, rejected by the three liberal judges of the court, Sonia Sotomayor, Ketanji Brown Jackson and Elena Kagan.

For the Secretary of Education, Linda McMahon, the judicial decision confirms “the obvious, that the president of the United States, as head of the executive branch, has the authority in the final instance to make decisions about personnel, the administrative organization and the day-to-day of the federal agencies.”

“As well as today’s ruling is an important victory for students and families, it is a shame that the highest court in the country has had to intervene to allow President Trump to move forward with the reforms that the Americans chose him to implement using the authorities granted by the Constitution,” the head of Education said in a statement.

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International

Colombian Senator Uribe Turbay, shows clinical improvement and begins neurological rehabilitation

Colombian senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, seriously injured in the head in an attack on June 7, has had a clinical improvement and a process of neurological rehabilitation began, reported this Monday the Santa Fe Foundation of Bogotá, where he has been hospitalized since then.

“During the last few days the patient has shown a favorable and stable clinical response, evidenced both in the recent diagnostic images taken (magnetic resonance, tomography, Doppler, among others), and in his response to surgical and medical interventions,” says the medical report.

According to the Santa Fe Foundation, “in this context, and as part of the comprehensive care process, the neurorehabilitation protocol was initiated.”

The medical report, the first disclosed by the Santa Fe Foundation in the last eleven days, points out, however, that the 39-year-old politician continues with a “reserved” neurological prognosis.

“Miguel Uribe Turbay requires continuing his management in the Intensive Care Unit, with mechanical ventilatory support and under sedation, as well as with hemodynamic and neurological monitoring for the early detection of any change,” the statement adds.

Uribe Turbay, a member of the right-wing Democratic Center party, was shot twice in the head and one in the left leg when he was leading a rally in a park in the Bogota neighborhood of Modelia, an attack that has revived among Colombians the ghost of political violence that marked the 1990 elections in which three presidential candidates were killed.

Due to the severity of the injuries suffered, the politician, one of the candidates of the Democratic Center for the 2026 presidential elections, has undergone several surgeries in Santa Fe.

The authorities, for their part, have made some progress in the investigation of the attack, for which five people have been arrested, including the hit man who shot him, a 15-year-old boy who was found with a Glock pistol used in the attack.

The other four detainees have been accused by the Prosecutor’s Office of participating in the preparation and cover-up of the attack, and among them is Elder José Arteaga Hernández, alias ‘el Costeño’, considered by the authorities as a key piece for being the alleged organizer of the attempted murder.

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International

Zelenski proposes the Minister of Economy, Sviridenko, as the new prime minister

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed on Monday the current Minister of Economy, Yulia Sviridenko, as the new prime minister to replace the current head of government, Denis Shmigal.

“I have proposed that Yulia Sviridenko lead the Government of Ukraine and significantly renew her work. I look forward to the presentation of the new Government action plan in the near future,” Zelenski wrote in X after meeting with Sviridenko.

The Ukrainian president spoke with the current Minister of Economy about “concrete measures to double Ukraine’s economic potential, to expand support programs for Ukrainians and to increase domestic weapons production.”

Zelenski and Sviridenko also reviewed the economic agreements signed by Ukraine at the international conference for the reconstruction of the country held in Rome on Thursday and last Friday.

Several Ukrainian media had advanced weeks ago that Sviridenko would soon replace Denis Shmigal as prime minister. At the head of the Economy portfolio, Sviridenko, 39, has been one of the most visible and active figures in the Government in recent months.

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