International
Waiting game: US election results could take days
| By AFP | Paul Handley |
Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.
Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner.
Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.
But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”
The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.
Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.
Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud — the process has become more politically fraught.
In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence.
“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.
Mail-in ballots
Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.
But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.
Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.
In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.
Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.
According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.
States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.
In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.
That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.
Georgia runoff
Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.
But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.
In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.
Recounts, legal challenges
Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.
With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.
In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.
Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.
In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted.
International
Authorities capture CJNG financial chief in international airport operation
A man identified as the main financial operator of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) was arrested Thursday at Mexico City’s international airport, authorities reported.
The individual, named by Mexican media as Óscar Antonio Álvarez, was apprehended during an operation involving the army, navy, National Guard, police, and the attorney general’s office, according to a joint statement.
Álvarez is considered the primary financial operator of a criminal group originating in Jalisco, and the capture took place at Benito Juárez Airport as he arrived on a flight from Barcelona, Spain.
Authorities stated that Álvarez faces charges of organized crime and money laundering, specifically for receiving and transferring illicit funds. His work with the CJNG reportedly included purchasing properties and managing businesses in the tequila and livestock sectors.
According to El Universal, Álvarez was directly under the command of Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho”, the cartel’s top leader, for whom the U.S. offers a $15 million reward.
The CJNG, which operates throughout Mexico and in various parts of the world, was designated earlier this year as a “foreign terrorist organization” by the U.S. government.
Álvarez was handed over to the federal public prosecutor to determine his legal situation, the report added.
International
Jair Bolsonaro sentenced for leading armed criminal plot after 2022 election loss
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, 70, has been sentenced for leading an armed criminal organization that attempted to cling to power after losing the 2022 elections to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The alleged coup plot, which reportedly included a plan to assassinate Lula, was not carried out due to lack of support from the military leadership.
By a four-to-one vote of the judges overseeing the case, seven co-defendants, including former ministers and military chiefs, were also convicted.
“A criminal armed organization was formed by the defendants, who must be sentenced based on the factual circumstances I consider proven,” said the final judge to cast a vote, Cristiano Zanin.
Bolsonaro, who has been under house arrest since August, did not attend the court hearings, citing health issues.
Reacting on X, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, said: “They call this a trial a process whose outcome everyone already knew before it began.”
One of the first international reactions came from the White House. Former U.S. President Donald Trump called the sentence “very surprising,” while Senator Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, stated that the United States will “respond accordingly” to the “unjust” ruling.
International
Poland invokes NATO Article 4 after russian drone incursion
The violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones on Wednesday triggered the most serious clash between Russia and NATO since the start of the war in Ukraine, prompting Poland to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which calls for consultations among allies.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed Parliament on Wednesday, describing an unprecedented “aggression” in which at least 19 Russian drones breached Polish airspace, creating a situation that the Prime Minister described as “the closest to an open conflict since World War II.”
Speaking at the start of an extraordinary Council of Ministers session, Tusk stated that “this is the first time Russian drones have been shot down over the territory of a NATO member state, and that is why all our allies are taking the situation very seriously.”
Although he affirmed that “there is no reason to claim that we are in a state of war,” he labeled the incidents as “a large-scale provocation” and ordered the invocation of NATO’s Article 4 to call for consultations with allied nations.
Tusk also noted on X (formerly Twitter) that he had received “not only expressions of solidarity with Poland but, above all, concrete proposals to support the country’s air defense” during discussions with European leaders throughout the day.
The Polish leader specifically mentioned conversations with the leaders of the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands—Keir Starmer, Giorgia Meloni, Friedrich Merz, and Dick Schoof—along with French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
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