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Waiting game: US election results could take days

Photo: Jeff Kowalsky / AFP

| By AFP | Paul Handley |

Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.

Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner. 

Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.

But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”

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The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.

Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.

Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud —  the process has become more politically fraught.

In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence. 

“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.

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Mail-in ballots

Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.

But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.

Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.

In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.

Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.

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According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.

States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.

In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.

That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.

Georgia runoff

Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.  

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But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.

In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.

Recounts, legal challenges

Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.

With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.

In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.  

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Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.

In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted. 

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International

Bill Gates to testify before Congress over Epstein connections

Bill Gates is set to testify on June 10 before a congressional committee in United States investigating links connected to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, a source familiar with the matter told AFP on Tuesday.

The Microsoft co-founder is among several high-profile figures named in documents released by the Department of Justice, which detail alleged close associations, questionable financial dealings, and private photographs involving Epstein.

According to a spokesperson cited by Politico, Gates “welcomes” the opportunity to appear before the committee. The representative emphasized that Gates “never attended or participated in any illegal activities with Epstein” and is prepared to answer questions to support the investigation.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation did not immediately respond to AFP’s request for comment.

In late February, Gates told members of his foundation’s board that his association with Epstein was a “huge mistake.” He has consistently denied any involvement in the financier’s criminal activities. Epstein died by suicide in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking minors.

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“I did nothing illegal. I saw nothing illegal,” Gates said, according to a recording obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

Gates acknowledged that his relationship with Epstein began in 2011, three years after Epstein pleaded guilty to soliciting prostitution from a minor.

A draft email written by Epstein and released by the Department of Justice referenced alleged extramarital relationships involving Gates. The message, which was apparently never sent, claimed that Epstein had helped “Bill” obtain medication related to encounters with Russian women.

Gates admitted to having had two extramarital affairs but denied any involvement with Epstein’s victims.

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International

Former Trump allies call for removal, cite 25th Amendment amid Iran threats

Former allies of U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for his removal from office, arguing he is unfit to continue in the role following recent threats to “wipe out an entire civilization,” made just hours before the deadline of his ultimatum to Iran.

One of the most prominent voices was former Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who invoked the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution as a mechanism to remove the president from power.

“25th Amendment! Not a single bomb has fallen on the U.S. We cannot annihilate an entire civilization. This is evil and insanity,” Greene wrote on social media platform X.

Greene, once a leading figure within Trump’s political movement during his first term, broke with the president last November over disagreements on foreign policy and his handling of controversial cases.

Another former supporter, controversial commentator Alex Jones, also raised the possibility of applying the constitutional provision during his show, in a conversation with attorney Robert Barnes.

Barnes explained that invoking the 25th Amendment requires the support of two-thirds of Congress, making it a more complex process than impeachment.

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Section 4 of the amendment, ratified in 1967, establishes that the vice president, together with a majority of the cabinet, can declare the president unable to perform the duties of the office, a decision that must then be confirmed by both chambers of Congress.

The statements come amid rising international tensions and increasing domestic political pressure on the president.

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International

Trump pauses strikes on Iran, extends ultimatum by two weeks

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, announced a temporary suspension of attacks against Iran for a period of two weeks, extending the ultimatum he had imposed on Tehran just hours before its deadline.

According to the president, the measure is conditional on Iran allowing the “full, immediate, and secure” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that the decision would involve a reciprocal ceasefire between both parties.

The announcement was made through a message on his social media platform, where he emphasized that the pause in military actions is intended to create space for de-escalation in the region.

He also noted that the decision followed a conversation with the prime minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, who requested a two-week extension of the ultimatum.

The move comes amid heightened global tensions, marked by escalating threats and concerns over the potential impact of the conflict on key international energy trade routes.

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