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Waiting game: US election results could take days

Photo: Jeff Kowalsky / AFP

| By AFP | Paul Handley |

Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.

Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner. 

Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.

But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”

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The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.

Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.

Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud —  the process has become more politically fraught.

In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence. 

“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.

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Mail-in ballots

Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.

But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.

Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.

In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.

Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.

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According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.

States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.

In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.

That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.

Georgia runoff

Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.  

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But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.

In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.

Recounts, legal challenges

Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.

With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.

In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.  

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Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.

In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted. 

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International

Authorities Say Teotihuacán Gunman Was Obsessed With Mass Shootings and Extremist Symbolism

Julio César Jasso Ramírez, identified by authorities as the gunman behind the armed attack at the archaeological site of Teotihuacán, had allegedly spent years building a personal narrative shaped by an obsession with historical mass shootings, extremist symbolism, and an increasing detachment from reality.

According to preliminary findings from the Fiscalía General de Justicia del Estado de México, the 27-year-old suspect, originally from the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, acted alone and appeared to have carefully planned the attack.

Investigators also pointed to signs of a severe psychological or psychiatric disorder. One official involved in the case stated that the suspect seemed to live in “his own reality,” disconnected from the world around him.

“I would not speak of a motive; I would speak of psychopathy, a condition, an illness,” the official said while discussing the ongoing investigation.

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Authorities reported that Jasso Ramírez was allegedly fixated on mass violence incidents that occurred outside Mexico, particularly in the United States.

Among the items found in his possession were writings, images, and materials reportedly linked to the Columbine High School massacre, the school shooting that took place on April 20, 1999.

The investigation remains ongoing as authorities continue analyzing evidence connected to the suspect’s background and mental state.

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International

Iran refuses to reopen strait of Hormuz amid ongoing U.S. Naval blockade

Iran reaffirmed on Wednesday that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the United States maintains its naval blockade against Iranian ports and vessels, amid rising geopolitical tensions in the region.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohamad Baqer Qalibaf warned that reopening the crucial maritime route depends on Washington honoring the ceasefire agreement. According to Qalibaf, Iran considers the deal to be violated due to ongoing U.S. actions.

The Iranian official accused the United States of carrying out a “naval blockade and the hijacking of the global economy,” while also pointing to Israeli military operations in Lebanon as part of the broader conflict affecting the region.

Qalibaf stated that military and economic pressure would not force Iran to change its position. “The United States and Israel failed to achieve their goals through military aggression, and they will not succeed through intimidation. The only path forward is to recognize the rights of the Iranian nation,” he said.

His remarks come amid stalled negotiations between Iran and the United States following direct talks held on April 11 and 12 in Islamabad.

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The discussions, led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian representatives, have shown little progress in recent days, increasing uncertainty over whether dialogue between the two sides will resume.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced an extension of the ceasefire but decided to keep the naval blockade in place, a move Tehran considers incompatible with ongoing negotiations.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intensified operations in the area by seizing two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing them of operating without the required permits and escorting them into Iranian territory.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil trade routes, and any prolonged disruption could have significant consequences for global energy markets.

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International

Maradona’s daughter accuses medical team of “horrible manipulation” in court

One of the daughters of Diego Maradona testified in court this Tuesday, breaking down in tears as she denounced what she described as “absolute and horrible manipulation” by her father’s medical team, during an emotional hearing in Argentina.

Gianinna Maradona stated that she and her siblings agreed to home hospitalization after doctors presented it as the best option following the neurosurgery Maradona underwent on November 3, 2020.

The football icon died on November 25 of that year, and the ongoing trial seeks to determine whether the conditions of his home care were appropriate.

According to Gianinna, what the family found at the residence where Maradona was recovering did not match what had been promised. She testified that there was no adequate medical equipment, constant monitoring, or even an ambulance available, despite assurances of continuous care.

“The manipulation was absolute and horrible,” she said during the hearing in San Isidro, near Buenos Aires.

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She accused members of the medical team, including neurosurgeon Leopoldo Luque, psychiatrist Agustina Cosachov, and psychologist Carlos Díaz, of misleading the family.

“I trusted these people, and all they did was manipulate us and leave my son without a grandfather,” she added.

Later in her testimony, recalling that six years have passed since her father’s death, she became emotional and said she struggled deeply with grief in the aftermath.

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