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Waiting game: US election results could take days

Photo: Jeff Kowalsky / AFP

| By AFP | Paul Handley |

Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.

Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner. 

Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.

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But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”

The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.

Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.

Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud —  the process has become more politically fraught.

In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence. 

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“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.

Mail-in ballots

Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.

But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.

Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.

In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.

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Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.

According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.

States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.

In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.

That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.

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Georgia runoff

Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.  

But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.

In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.

Recounts, legal challenges

Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.

With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.

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In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.  

Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.

In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted. 

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International

The investigation of the cause of the fire in the Copenhagen stock exchange could take months

The investigation of the causes of the fire that on Tuesday caused serious damage to the historic old building of the Copenhagen stock exchange could last “several months,” the Danish Police reported on Wednesday.

The authorities assumed the fire was controlled on Tuesday afternoon, about eight hours after its emar, but several dozen firefighters continued this Wednesday with the extinguishing work, which is expected to last until Thursday.

“Shortly after the fire broke out, an investigation was opened and we have carried out several interrogations, ensured surveillance and taken a series of steps. But there is still a part left, especially since we have not yet been able to examine the bag itself or do the technical exams,” deputy comissary Brian Belling said in a statement.

The fire devastated half of the building, from the 17th century and whose facade and roof were being restored, and caused the collapse of part of the roof and the iconic spire of its tower, although hundreds of works of art from its interior were saved.

Apart from extinguishing the last flames, the work is now focused on stabilizing the construction and ensuring that the walls of the burned part do not collapse, for which forty containers full of cement have been placed on the outside.

The police have progressively opened to traffic areas of the center that were cut off by the fire, but maintain the cuts in the vicinity of the building, located a few meters from the seat of the Parliament.

When the fire broke out, at 07.30 local time (05.30 GMT) on Tuesday, there were inside it, ten workers from the company that was restoring it and who left the place on their own foot.

“We have said that, no matter what happens, we are obliged to restore the Stock Exchange, out of consideration for our history, our cultural heritage, Denmark and the business world,” the director of the Chamber of Commerce, Brian Mikkelsen, reiterated today.

It is one of the oldest buildings preserved in Copenhagen, built between 1619 and 1623 by order of King Christian IV of Denmark and which functioned as the city’s purse until 1974.

King Frederick X yesterday described what happened as “sad” and the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, as “horrible.”

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International

The Philippines and the United States will simulate the capture of an island in their next military exercises and in full tension with China

The armies of the Philippines and the United States will simulate the capture of an island controlled by enemy forces during the joint military exercises that begin next week in the Southeast Asian archipelago, in full tensions with China.

“It is the first time that maritime exercises will be carried out beyond Philippine territorial waters,” said Army Colonel Michael Logico during an interview with the public channel PTV in which he reported the simulation of the capture of the island, whose location was not specified.

The annual exercises, called “Balikatan”, will gather between April 22 and May 10 about 16,000 troops (more than 11,000 American soldiers and about 5,000 Filipinos) and will take place in areas in front of the island of Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing does not rule out invading, and the disputed South China Sea, among other locations.

About 150 Australian soldiers and representatives of the French Navy will also participate in the exercises, which are not explicitly directed against China, while Japan, among other countries, will send observers.

Logico stressed that they have sent an invitation to the Japanese troops to join next year.

The military exercises are held after the trilateral meeting organized last Thursday in Washington between US President Joe Biden; Filipino Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, where various aspects of security and defense were discussed, with a view to countering Beijing.

Tensions between Manila and Beijing have been increasing lately due to incidents between vessels from both sides in areas that are disputed in the South China Sea, where the United States supports the Philippines – with which it has a mutual defense treaty – in order to maintain the right to free navigation in waters through which about 30% of the world’s maritime trade transits.

Marcos Jr., who took power in June 2022, has turned the foreign policy of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, closer to Beijing, to approach his traditional ally, the United States, in turn concerned about China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Manila and Washington announced last year a defense agreement by which the Asian country will allow US troops to use four military bases – some with easy access to and the South China Sea – which are in addition to the access agreed in 2014 over five other bases.

In parallel, the Philippines and Japan are advancing on a security agreement that could also include access to bases similar to that of Manila and Washington.

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International

Stoltenberg asks the allies to prioritize the shipment of weapons to Ukraine over self-defense

The secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, on Wednesday asked the allied countries to give priority to the sending of weapons to Ukraine to defend themselves from Russia, in the face of the need to meet the reserve objectives of the Alliance for Self-Defense.

“If the allies face having to choose between meeting NATO’s capacity objectives and providing more help to Ukraine, my message is clear: send more to Ukraine,” Stoltenberg stressed during a press conference after meeting with the leaders of the Netherlands, Denmark and the Czech Republic.

Stoltenberg also confirmed that on Friday the meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council requested by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, will take place, in which the president and the allied defense ministers will participate to “address the most urgent needs for support for Ukraine” and, in particular, for air defense and artillery ammunition.

The Norwegian politician made it clear that, as secretary general of NATO, it is “important that all allies achieve and meet the capacity objectives.”

“But I have realized that, at least in the short term, there can be a conflict between meeting all the objectives and supplying what Ukraine needs now, and that is why I have made it clear that if the only way to support Ukraine is to stay below NATO’s capacity objectives, that’s what needs to be done,” he stressed.

At the same time, he pointed out the importance of increasing production to replenish stocks in the Allied arsenals.

Stoltenberg met today with the prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Petr Fiala; of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, and of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, to talk about how to provide more air defense systems to Ukraine, “because the situation on the battlefield is still very difficult.”

He stressed that Denmark has announced a new and important aid package, the Netherlands has just confirmed another 4 billion euros in additional military aid for Kiev and the Czech Republic continues to lead an initiative that is collecting hundreds of millions of euros to send more artillery projectiles to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Germany has indicated that it will send another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, and there are “indications” that the United States Congress could address the expected multi-million-dollar aid package for Kiev in the coming days, Stoltenberg said.

On the air defenses that Ukraine needs, Rutte said that they must produce more themselves in the medium term, study what else they can supply from their own arsenals and buy what is “available around the world.”

Fiala highlighted that, through the Czech initiative to provide Ukraine with more large-caliber ammunition, about 200,000 projectiles have already been contracted and there are another 300,000 in process.

Frederiksen, for his part, said that all allies must “balance the needs we have as members of NATO and our own deterrence and defense, with all the things we want to do for Ukraine.”

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