International
Inflation clouds ‘Black Friday’ kickoff of US holiday shopping season
| By AFP | John Biers |
Retailers unveiled a trove of fresh seasonal promotions Friday, as they try to coax sales from reticent shoppers whose holiday cheer has been tempered by inflation and worries over a softening economy.
“Black Friday,” the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season, announced itself with the annual day-after-Thanksgiving deluge of online promotions and early store openings.
But industry experts have been cautious about this year’s prospects, in light of price pressures that have exacerbated concerns about an oversupply of goods.
A year ago, retailers faced product shortfalls in the wake of shipping backlogs and factory closures related to Covid-19. To avert a repeat, the industry front-loaded its holiday imports this year, leaving it vulnerable to oversupply at a time when consumers are cutting back.
“Supply shortages was yesterday’s problem,” said Neil Saunders, managing director for GlobalData Retail, a consultancy. “Today’s problem is having too much stuff.”
Saunders said retailers have made progress in reducing excess inventories, but oversupply will mean deep discounts in many categories, including electronics, home improvement and apparel.
Online shoppers spent $5.3 billion on Thanksgiving Day itself, according to an Adobe report early Friday, up 2.9 percent from a year ago.
Higher costs for gasoline and household staples like meat and cereal are a nationwide issue, and they do not burden everyone equally.
“The lower incomes are definitely hit worst by the higher inflation,” said Claire Li, senior analyst at Moody’s. “People have to spend on the essential items.”
Diminishing savings
Leading forecasts from Deloitte and the National Retail Federation project a single-digit percentage rise in sales, but this is unlikely to exceed the inflation rate.
Adobe has forecast an overall holiday sales increase of 2.5 percent, less than a third of the level from last year. Besides inflation, Adobe cited higher Federal Reserve interest rates and an uptick in brick-and-mortar shopping as factors.
European countries like Britain and France have been marking Black Friday for a few years now too, but with soaring inflation, merchants there face a similar dilemma.
“Retailers are desperate for some spending cheer but the worry is that it could turn out to be more of a Bleak Friday,” said Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter.
US shoppers have remained resilient throughout the pandemic, often spending more than expected even when consumer sentiment surveys suggest they are in a gloomy mood.
Part of the reason has been the unusually robust state of savings, with many households banking government pandemic aid payments at a time of reduced consumption due to virus restrictions.
But that cushion is starting to whittle away. After hitting $2.5 trillion in excess savings in mid-2021, the benchmark fell to $1.7 trillion in the second quarter, according to Moody’s.
Accompanying this drop has been a rise in credit card debt visible in Federal Reserve data and anecdotally described by chains that also report more purchases made with food stamps.
Mixed picture
Recent earnings reports from retailers paint a mixed picture on consumer health.
Target stood on the downcast side, pointing to a sharp decline in shopping activity in late October, potentially portending a weak holiday season.
The big-box chain expects a “very promotional” holiday season, said Chief Executive Brian Cornell.
“We’ve had a consumer who has been dealing with very stubborn inflation for quarter after quarter now,” Cornell said on a conference call with analysts.
He added that customers are “shopping very carefully on a budget.”
But Lowe’s, another big US chain specializing in home-improvement, offered a different view, describing the same late-October period as “strong.”
“We are not seeing anything that feels or looks like a trade down or consumer pullback,” said Lowe’s Chief Executive Marvin Ellison.
Consumers like Charmaine Taylor, who checks airline websites frequently, are staying vigilant.
Taylor, who works in child care, has had her travel plans thwarted due to exorbitant plane ticket prices — and she is unsure of how much she can spend on family this year.
“I’m trying to give them some little gifts,” she said at a park in Harlem earlier this week. “I don’t know if I’ll be able to. Inflation is hitting pretty hard.”
International
Texas Floods: Death toll rises to 68, dozens still missing
The death toll from the devastating floods in central-south Texas rose to 68 on Sunday, according to local authorities, as hundreds of emergency personnel and volunteers continue intensive search efforts.
Larry Leitha Jr., sheriff of Kerr County, one of the hardest-hit areas, confirmed that 59 of the victims were found in that county alone — 38 adults and 21 minors.
“We will continue the search until we find everyone,” Leitha told reporters Sunday morning, adding that the death toll is expected to rise.
Authorities in neighboring counties have also reported 9 additional deaths:
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3 in Burnet County
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1 in Kendall County
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1 in Tom Green County
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4 in Travis County
Leitha also reported that 11 children and teenagers from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp near the town of Hunt, remain missing.
In Kerr County, over 400 rescue workers from 20 different federal and state agencies are involved in the ongoing search and rescue operations.
Local officials have avoided giving a precise number of missing persons, as many visitors were camping in the area for Fourth of July celebrations and may not be accounted for.
More than 850 people have been safely evacuated, and eight were injured. Authorities reported over 160 air rescues.
Dalton Rice, city manager of Kerrville, noted that these are the worst floods the region has seen since 1987, when 10 teenagers died.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott requested a federal disaster declaration from the Trump administration and declared Sunday a national day of prayer.
According to the National Weather Service, more than 12 inches (30 cm) of rainfall were recorded in just 12 hours on Friday, causing the Guadalupe River near Hunt to rise to 32.5 feet (9.9 meters) — its second-highest level on record.
International
Salvadoran Day USA 2025 canceled amid fears of immigration raids
The Salvadoran Day USA 2025 celebration, originally scheduled for Saturday, August 2 and Sunday, August 3, has been officially canceled due to security concerns related to ongoing immigration raids targeting the Latino community in the United States.
The Salvadoran Communities Unit in the United States (UNICOMDES) made the announcement through an official statement on its social media platforms, expressing deep regret over the decision.
“With great sadness, we announce the cancellation of the Salvadoran Day USA Festival 2025,” the organization stated.
According to UNICOMDES, the cancellation came after a thorough assessment of the current immigration climateand extensive consultations with immigration experts, local and Salvadoran authorities, media outlets, sponsors, and community members.
“Holding the festival would be irresponsible, as it is an open-air event where it is impossible to fully control who enters,” the statement added.
UNICOMDES also confirmed that the refund process for all funds collected for the event has already begun. The festival typically attracts thousands of Salvadorans across various cities in the U.S.
International
Mexico’s president blasts ‘Inhumane’ U.S. migration law
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated on Friday that any Mexican detained in the United States should be “immediately” returned to Mexico. Her remarks come in the wake of the opening of a new migrant detention center in Florida earlier this week.
Speaking during her daily press conference, known as La Mañanera del Pueblo, Sheinbaum emphasized that so far, no Mexican national has been held in the facility, which has already sparked controversy and has been nicknamed “the Alcatraz of the Alligators.”
She also criticized the new fiscal law signed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, passed by Congress just a day earlier. The law, which Trump dubbed the “great and beautiful tax reform,” includes significant tax cuts and sweeping reductions in public policies, reallocating billions toward national security and defense—including $170 billion to enhance border security, deportations, and the expansion of detention centers.
“We do not agree with a punitive approach to migration. Migration must be addressed through its structural causes, with cooperation for development,” Sheinbaum asserted.
The Mexican president labeled the Trump administration’s view of migrants as criminals as “inhumane,” and warned that such policies ultimately harm the U.S. economy. She pointed to the mass deportation of agricultural workers as an example of how these actions are already backfiring.
“These are hardworking people—people of good will—who contribute more to the U.S. economy than they do to Mexico’s,” Sheinbaum said, announcing that her government will strengthen support programs to ensure that affected migrants can return home safely and reintegrate into the workforce.
Texas Floods: Death toll rises to 68, dozens still missing
Salvadoran Day USA 2025 canceled amid fears of immigration raids
Mexico’s president blasts ‘Inhumane’ U.S. migration law
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