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Inflation clouds ‘Black Friday’ kickoff of US holiday shopping season

| PAr AFP | John Biers |

US retailers unveiled a trove of fresh promotions Friday, as they try to coax sales from reticent shoppers whose holiday cheer has been tempered by inflation and worries over a softening economy.

“Black Friday,” the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season, announced itself with the annual day-after-Thanksgiving deluge of online deals and early store openings.

Traffic was steady at Macy’s flagship store in midtown Manhattan, where crowds braved drizzly, chilly weather to survey the mammoth department store and take in holiday windows that feature a Santa surrounded by disco balls and fox family of stuffed animals clad in plaid.

But industry experts have been cautious about this year’s prospects, in light of price pressures that have exacerbated concerns about an oversupply of goods.  

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A year ago, retailers faced product shortfalls in the wake of shipping backlogs and factory closures related to Covid-19. To avert a repeat, the industry front-loaded holiday imports this year, leaving it vulnerable to oversupply at a time when consumers are cutting back.

“Today’s problem is having too much stuff,” said Neil Saunders, managing director for consultancy GlobalData Retail.

Saunders said retailers have made progress in reducing excess inventories, but oversupply will mean deep discounts in many categories, including electronics and apparel.

“This is a holiday season where retailers are going to have to work very hard for very small gains,” he said.

The dynamic has created opportunities for savvy shoppers like Carla Forbes, who began scouring for holiday discounts weeks ago. She nabbed a jacket Friday at Macy’s for $79, down from an original price of $225.

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While promotions on watches and jewelry have got “better,” she noted that such deals are not available for staples like food, for which prices have soared.

“You just have to buy it if you want (it),” Forbes said.

Diminishing savings

Leading forecasts from Deloitte and the National Retail Federation project a single-digit percentage rise in sales, but this is unlikely to exceed the inflation rate.

Adobe expects an overall holiday sales increase of 2.5 percent, less than a third of last year’s level. Besides inflation, Adobe cited higher Federal Reserve interest rates and an uptick in brick-and-mortar shopping as factors.

Consumers spent  $7.28 billion up through 6:00 pm Eastern time (2300 GMT) for Black Friday, according to Adobe. The company anticipates that when the final tally is in, consumers will spend between $9 billion and $9.2 billion for the day, setting a new record for online sales on Black Friday.

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Countries like Britain and France have been marking Black Friday too, but with soaring inflation, merchants there face a similar dilemma.

“The worry is that it could turn out to be more of a Bleak Friday,” said Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter.

Anne Campbell, who was visiting New York from Scotland, said the mood felt very different from home, where worries about energy security and a weakening economy dominated.

“Things are very tight in the UK for a lot of people,” she said, contrasting this with spending in the US.

US shoppers have remained resilient throughout the pandemic, often spending more than expected even when consumer sentiment surveys suggested gloominess.

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Part of the reason has been the unusually robust state of savings, with many households banking government pandemic aid payments at a time of reduced consumption due to virus restrictions.

But that cushion is starting to whittle away. After hitting $2.5 trillion in excess savings in mid-2021, the benchmark fell to $1.7 trillion in the second quarter, according to Moody’s.

Accompanying this drop has been a rise in credit card debt visible in Fed data and anecdotally described by chains that report more purchases made with food stamps.

Mixed picture

Recent earnings reports from retailers paint a mixed picture on consumer health.

Target stood on the downcast side, pointing to a sharp decline in shopping activity in late October, potentially portending a weak holiday season.

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“We’ve had a consumer who has been dealing with very stubborn inflation for quarter after quarter now,” Chief Executive Brian Cornell told a conference call with analysts.

He added that customers are “shopping very carefully on a budget.”

But Lowe’s, another US chain specializing in home-improvement, described the same late-October period as “strong.”

Friday’s crowds in New York were more robust compared with a year ago, said shopper Marvin Thomas, who also ventured out for Black Friday in 2021.

Inflation is a “big problem,” he told AFP, catching his breath outdoors after finding a deal on a hat at Foot Locker.

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“I’m not going to deny that it has affected me, but you gotta do what you gotta do.”

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International

Noboa once again entrusts the Vice President of Ecuador to the vice president he appointed by decree

The President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, returned this Thursday to delegate – for the second time – the Presidency to the Secretary of Public Administration and Cabinet of the Presidency Cynthia Gellibert, whom he himself appointed by decree vice president in charge, in the face of the open confrontation he maintains with the vice president, Verónica Abad.

As he did last week, Noboa again issued a decree in which he announces that he is absent from the Presidency from Thursday to Sunday, to make an electoral campaign in search of his re-election in the elections of February 9, and during that period of time it will be Gellibert who will be in charge of the head of the State.

This action of the president of Ecuador is a matter of evaluation by the ordinary and constitutional justice at the request of the vice president, Verónica Abad, who claims to assume the presidential functions during the full period of the electoral campaign, in which according to the Constitution the head of state must ask for leave for being a candidate for re-election.

In his decree, Noboa argues that, although the Constitution determines that the Vice Presidency must assume the head of State in the event of the absence of the president, this “is not limited to the elected vice-president, but to the person who to date is exercising the functions of the Vice Presidency.”

Before appointing Gellibert as vice president in charge by decree, Noboa sent Abad to the Ecuadorian Embassy in Turkey, after a judge annulled the five-month suspension that the same Government had imposed on him. Until now, the vice president remains in Ecuador to claim to be the one who temporarily assumes the Presidency.

The new period of Gellibert with presidential powers began at 18:00 local time (23:00 GMT) this Thursday and is scheduled to end at 22:00 (03:00 GMT) next Sunday, time at which the debate between presidential candidates is expected to end where Noboa is summoned to participate.

After the debate, Noboa plans to travel to Washington to attend Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, according to the Ecuadorian Presidency.

After the first assignment of the Presidency to Gellibert, Abad denounced a “coup d’état” and urged the Organization of American States (OAS) to apply the Democratic Charter, considering that the constitutional order had been broken because it had not received the presidential powers, as contemplated in the Ecuadorian Constitution.

In addition, he filed a protection action with which he seeks that the Justice annul the decrees in which Noboa appointed Gellibert as vice president in charge and delegated the Presidency to him. A court admitted the appeal on Friday, but did not accept some precautionary measures that Abad also asked for to suspend those effects immediately.

Controversies like this will be part of the analysis and evaluation of the electoral observation mission (EOM) of the European Union (EU) for the Ecuadorian elections, as anticipated on Wednesday by its leader, Spanish MEP Gabriel Mato.

The confrontation between Noboa and Abad began in the electoral campaign for the second round of elections for the extraordinary elections of 2023, and was reflected when he assumed the charges, when in one of his first decisions, the president sent the vice president to Israel as ambassador, with the mission of seeking peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

Abad has denounced Noboa for alleged political gender violence and has accused her of leading a harassment against her to force her to resign and thus avoid having to delegate the Presidency to her during the electoral campaign period, which runs from January 5 to February 6.

The titular vice president has also accused the Government of being behind the corruption investigation in the offices of the Vice Presidency that involves her son in a case where the Prosecutor’s Office also sought to indict Abad, but the National Assembly (Parliament) voted mostly against lifting the jurisdiction, although the ruling party voted in favor.

The general elections in Ecuador are called for Sunday, February 9 and, according to the polls published so far, Noboa and the candidate of the correismo Luisa González appear as prominent favorites to move on to the second round.

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International

Musk’s Starship was lost after a smooth takeoff

The second stage of the Starship spacecraft, the largest and most powerful rocket in the world, was lost this Thursday after a smooth takeoff from the SpaceX base in Boca Chica, in southern Texas (USA), on the border with Mexico.

Before confirming the news, the company of technology tycoon Elon Musk pointed out during the live broadcast that it had lost contact with the rocket, which was supposed to dwell in the Indian Ocean.

However, the takeoff itself had no problems, and even the first stage, the Super Heavy, managed to return to land, to the base, and be caught by the clamps in a spectacular way, for the second time.

“The Starship spacecraft suffered a rapid and unforeseen dismantling during its ascent. The teams will continue to review the data from today’s flight test to better understand the root cause,” SpaceX said on the social network X.

He added that in a test like this, “success depends on what we learn, and today’s flight will help us improve the reliability of the Starship spacecraft.”

The rocket had been improved for this seventh test flight and the part that was lost was carrying cargo into space for the first time, in this case a dozen replicas of Starlink internet satellites.

The lost spacecraft was to fly in a suborbital trajectory for about an hour, after which it planned to land in the Indian Ocean, as in the last tests.

In these initial test flights, the idea is not to reach orbit but to go around the planet and descend by the tail ahead and propelled by rockets in the Indian Ocean.

The SpaceX company signed up for a new success on Thursday with the launch of the seventh test flight of the Starship, the largest and most powerful rocket in the world, which this time was improved, took cargo into space for the first time and also managed to catch the propeller on the ground for the second time on its return to the base in Texas.

The rocket had taken off today at 16:37 local time (22:37 GMT) powered by the Super Heavy as planned after several delays due to unfavorable weather conditions.

SpaceX proposed in this new Starship test to launch a ship with significant improvements, and attempt the first payload deployment test, the Starlink.

He also wanted to fly multiple reentry experiments aimed at capturing and reusing ships, and launching and returning the Super Heavy thruster to the base in Texas, as he succeeded.

As in the most recent test flights, the first stage propelled the upper one out of the dense lower atmosphere before returning in a controlled manner.

Remains of the Starship ship, the largest and most powerful rocket in the world, passed through the north of the Dominican Republic, according to electronic news pages from the United States and according to images spread on social networks.

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International

Mark Carney announces his candidacy to replace Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada

Former Bank of Canada governor (2008-2013) Mark Carney announced on Thursday that he will present his candidacy to lead the Liberal Party and become the country’s prime minister.

Carney, 59, who was also governor of the Bank of England (2013-2020), is the first of the main candidates to publicly communicate his desire to replace Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation in December.

In a speech in the city of Edmonton, in the west of the country, he acknowledged that “the system is not working as it should” and that many people do not find affordable housing or a family doctor.

With a centrist and nationalist language, Carney declared that “these are normal times for us” and warned that “in just four days Donald Trump will become the 47th president (of the United States), a man who threatens his closest and most faithful allies, including Canada, with economic strength.”

In this sense, he explained that he wants to be the leader of the Liberal Party and Canadian Prime Minister because Canada faces “unprecedented challenges.”

Carney also referred to the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, whom polls point so far as the winner of the next general elections, and criticized that he is worried “looking for the support of Donald Trump and Elon Musk.”

“Sending Poilievre to negotiate with Trump is the worst possible idea,” he added.

The former governor of the Bank of Canada recalled the seven years he spent at the head of the Bank of England: “In the United Kingdom I saw from the front row what happened there after years in which the conservatives shouted that the country was broken.”

“Conservatives don’t shout that Canada is broken because they want to fix it, what they want is permission to destroy it,” he said.
Carney concluded by pointing out that he will win the next elections to “build a strong economy for all and to defend Canada against Trump.”

The Liberal Party will reveal on March 9 the name of Trudeau’s substitute, who on December 16 announced that he will resign when the political formation chooses his substitute.

Chrystia Freeland, until December vice prime minister of the country, is expected to announce her candidacy next week, which will make her Carney’s main rival.

The opposition parties, which have a majority in Parliament, have already announced that as soon as the sessions of Parliament resume on March 24, they will present a motion of censure to hold early elections.

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