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US inflation slows in November in smallest spike in year

| By AFP | Beiyi Seow |

US consumer inflation eased in November, according to government data released Tuesday, bringing some relief to policymakers with the smallest annual increase in nearly a year.

Officials are closely eying the monthly inflation report for signs that painfully high consumer prices are definitively moderating at last, as surging costs of living force households to dip into their savings.

The consumer price index (CPI), a closely-watched measure of inflation, jumped 7.1 percent from a year ago, down from 7.7 percent in October, according to Labor Department figures.

But the overall number is still about three times the pre-pandemic pace.

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Prices ticked up 0.1 percent from October to November, a smaller-than-expected increase after a prior 0.4 percent jump, the latest data showed.

President Joe Biden reacted with cautious optimism about the US economy, saying the figures gave “a reason for some optimism for the holiday season and I would argue for the year ahead.”

Core prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy segments, rose 0.2 percent in November, down from a 0.3 percent pick-up in October.

“The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, more than offsetting decreases in energy indexes,” the Labor Department said in a statement.

Food inflation nudged up as well, underscoring the financial squeeze that households are still experiencing.

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While an improvement from before, the data likely reinforces official views that costs remain far too high, and US central bankers are poised to push on in their quest to cool the world’s biggest economy.

The Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark lending rate six times this year in hopes of lowering demand, walking a fine line between reining in prices and triggering a recession.

The lower inflation figure is likely to fuel optimism for easing in the Fed’s aggressive campaign as its policy-setting committee starts a two-day meeting Tuesday that is widely expected to culminate in a smaller rate hike.

Right direction

Consumer inflation remains much higher than the Fed’s longer-term goal of two percent, even as prices are “moving in the right direction,” said economist Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics Tuesday.

But “further sustained improvement” over the coming months could allow the Fed to slow its pace of rate hikes more, she added.

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While goods prices are decelerating, they still contribute heavily to CPI changes and a reversal of the trend will take time, she warned in an earlier analysis.

James Knightley of ING told AFP that while the asking price for rents appears to be falling in many cities, most people are still paying “considerably more” than last year.

Analysts have also been watching price increases in services, given that quickly rising wages feed into this segment and “continue to run hot,” he noted.

“This is clearly an area of concern for the Fed,” he said.

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International

Paraguay summons Brazilian ambassador over Itaipú espionage scandal

Paraguay summoned the Brazilian ambassador in Asunción on Tuesday to demand “explanations” and called its own representative in Brasília for consultations following Brazil’s acknowledgment of an espionage operation. The Brazilian government, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, attributed the operation to the previous administration.

The surveillance effort aimed to uncover Paraguay’s position in now-suspended negotiations with Brazil regarding the pricing of electricity from the binational Itaipú hydroelectric plant, according to reports in the Brazilian press.

The Brazilian government “categorically denied any involvement in the intelligence operation,” stating in a Foreign Ministry communiqué on Monday that the espionage was carried out under former President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration (2019-2023).

“The operation was authorized by the previous government in June 2022 and was annulled by the interim director of the (state intelligence agency) ABIN on March 27, 2023, as soon as the current administration became aware of it,” Brazil’s government asserted.

Paraguay’s Foreign Minister Rubén Ramírez announced that Brazilian Ambassador José Antonio Marcondes de Carvalho was summoned “to provide detailed explanations” regarding the operation. Additionally, Paraguay recalled its diplomatic representative in Brasília “to report on aspects related to the intelligence activity conducted by Brazil regarding Paraguay’s government affairs.”

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Elon Musk to step down as government advisor, per Trump insiders

President Donald Trump has informed his inner circle that Elon Musk will be stepping down from his role as a government advisor, according to a report by Politico today.

Citing three individuals close to Trump, Politico states that the president is pleased with Musk’s leadership at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he has implemented significant budget cuts. However, both have agreed that it is time for Musk to return to his businesses and support Trump from a different position outside the government.

A senior administration official told Politico that Musk will likely maintain an informal advisory role and continue to be an occasional visitor to the White House. Another source warned that anyone thinking Musk will completely disappear from Trump’s circle is “deluding themselves.”

According to the sources, this transition is expected to coincide with the end of Musk’s tenure as a “special government employee,” a temporary status that exempts him from certain ethics and conflict-of-interest regulations. This 130-day period is set to expire in late May or early June.

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International

Milei vows to make Argentina so strong that Falkland Islanders “choose” to join

Argentine President Javier Milei reaffirmed his country’s claim over the Falkland Islands (known as the Islas Malvinas in Argentina) and praised the role of the nation’s armed forces during a ceremony marking the “Veterans and Fallen Soldiers of the Malvinas War Day,” commemorating 43 years since the 1982 conflict with the United Kingdom.

Argentina continues to assert sovereignty over the islands, arguing that Britain unlawfully seized them in 1833.

“If sovereignty over the Malvinas is the issue, we have always made it clear that the most important vote is the one cast with one’s feet. We hope that one day, the Malvinas residents will choose to vote with their feet and join us,” Milei stated.

“That is why we aim to become a global power—so much so that they would prefer to be Argentine, making deterrence or persuasion unnecessary. This is why we have embarked on a path of liberation, working to make Argentina the freest country in the world and once again the nation with the highest GDP per capita on the planet,” he added.

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