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Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador

Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador
Photo: Diario El Salvador

October 5 |

The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.

Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.

Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.

In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.

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“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.

The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.

Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.

The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.

“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.

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El Salvador’s MARN monitors ongoing seismic activity in La Unión department

Seismic activity in the Conchagua area and its surroundings, located in the department of La Unión, continues to accumulate events, surpassing 1,350 aftershocks as of Wednesday morning, according to the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN).

As of 6:00 AM on December 18th, a total of 1,351 earthquakes have been recorded, of which 176 were felt, according to the data published by the Ministry of Environment. The seismic activity in this area of the eastern part of the country began on December 8th after a magnitude 5.8 earthquake was recorded at 9:50 PM. The magnitudes of the aftershocks have ranged between 2.5 and 5.0.

The Ministry of Environment continues to monitor seismic activity in this region and throughout El Salvador to take appropriate measures and ensure the safety of the Salvadoran population.

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Sports

Real Madrid clinches fourth Intercontinental Cup with 3-0 victory over Pachuca

Real Madrid crowned themselves champions of their fourth Intercontinental Cup on Wednesday, defeating Mexican club Pachuca 3-0 in Doha, thanks to goals from Frenchman Kylian Mbappé and Brazilians Rodrygo and Vinicius.

The ‘Merengues’ thus capped off a spectacular 2024 year, winning five titles. Before this success in Qatar, they had already claimed the Spanish League, the UEFA Champions League, and the Super Cups of Spain and Europe.

Mbappé, who made his return after a minor muscle injury, capitalized on a pass from Brazilian Vinicius in the 37th minute, who dribbled past goalkeeper Carlos Moreno, to finish from close range. It was the first shot on target for Real Madrid.

The team doubled their lead with another brilliant goal from Rodrygo, who feigned a shot to beat his defenders and created enough space to take a strike from the edge of the area, beating Moreno in the 53rd minute.

For a few moments, the goal was under review after Venezuelan referee Jesús Valenzuela was called to check a potential offside by Jude Bellingham.

However, the referee concluded that the Englishman did not interfere with the play and the goal was allowed.

Five minutes later, Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois had to use his hand to stop a dangerous ball, which Salomón Rondón almost put into the net.

Mbappé, who had scored a hat-trick in the 2022 World Cup final that was lost to Argentina’s Lionel Messi in the same Lusail stadium, left the pitch in the 62nd minute on the decision of Italian coach Carlo Ancelotti, who lifted his 15th title with the club—one more than the legendary Miguel Muñoz.

When it seemed like the players of Uruguayan Guillermo Almada had gained some initiative, Oussama Idrissi fouled Lucas Vázquez inside the area, and the penalty was reviewed via VAR.

Vinicius converted the spot-kick in the 84th minute with a low, powerful shot that Moreno touched but could not save.

The newly named FIFA Player of the Year had another chance to score, while Ángel Mena managed to head the ball into the net before the 90-minute mark, but his goal was ruled offside.

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Central America

Amnesty International condemns Nicaragua’s unprecedented repression of dissent

On Tuesday, Amnesty International (AI) stated that no one in Nicaragua is safe from the “repressive model” imposed by the government of Daniel Ortega, which threatens human rights in an “unprecedented” manner.

“Nicaragua’s repression leaves no one safe,” said Ana Piquer, AI’s Americas director, in a statement.

“From indigenous leaders, journalists, human rights defenders, and anyone seen as a risk to the government’s policies, the authorities continue to solidify the climate of fear in which dissent is punished with imprisonment, exile, or disappearance,” she added.

Since the anti-government protests in 2018, which Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, consider an attempted coup promoted by the United States, hundreds of people have been “unjustly imprisoned” and many have been forced into exile, according to AI.

At least 300 people died in the protests, according to the United Nations.

The human rights organization urged Ortega’s government to “immediately halt all repressive practices,” ensure human rights, and end the “criminalization of dissent.”

Recently, the NGO Colectivo Nicaragua Nunca Más reported over 2,000 arbitrary arrests and at least 229 cases of torture of detainees since 2018.

Additionally, Amnesty labeled imprisoned Miskito indigenous leader Brooklyn Rivera as a “prisoner of conscience” and demanded his release along with dozens of other detainees.

The Mechanism for the Recognition of Political Prisoners in Nicaragua currently lists 45 people detained for political reasons in the country.

Since February 2023, Ortega’s government has stripped about 450 politicians, businessmen, journalists, intellectuals, human rights activists, and religious figures of their Nicaraguan nationality after they were exiled or expelled from the country.

Amnesty demanded “an end to the practice of arbitrary deprivation of nationality, as well as the full restoration of the rights of those deprived of it,” and urged the international community not to remain “indifferent” to the situation in Nicaragua.

Ortega, a 79-year-old former guerrilla fighter who ruled Nicaragua in the 1980s and has been in power again since 2007, enacted a broad constitutional reform in November that stipulates that “traitors to the homeland” lose their Nicaraguan nationality, a charge leveled against most of the exiled individuals.

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