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Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador

Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador
Photo: Diario El Salvador

October 5 |

The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.

Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.

Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.

In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.

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“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.

The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.

Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.

The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.

“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.

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Central America

Mulino warns Trump: Darién is U.S.’s ‘other border’ in call for bilateral solutions to migration

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino reiterated on Thursday that the Darién region is “the other border” of the United States and that President-elect Donald Trump must understand this, given his announcement to toughen U.S. immigration policy.

“And I repeat what I have said: he (Trump) must know that his other border, the U.S. border, is in Darién, and we need to begin solving this issue bilaterally or together with a group of countries that contribute people to the migratory flow,” Mulino stated during his weekly press conference.

The Panamanian leader added that the United States “needs to be more aware that this (the flow of irregular migrants through Darién) is their problem. These people are not coming to stay in Panama… they want to go to the United States for whatever reasons they may have.”

In 2023, more than 520,000 irregular migrants crossed the Darién jungle into Panama, a historic figure. This year, the flow has decreased, with more than 281,000 travelers making the journey by October 31, mostly Venezuelans (over 196,000), according to Panama’s National Migration Service.

“Panama is doing what it can,” Mulino said, emphasizing the country’s significant financial investment in security, medical care, and food for migrants. However, he noted, “As long as the crisis in Venezuela persists, all signs point to this continuing, with the human drama that it involves.”

He emphasized that Venezuelans make up the majority of those crossing the jungle, with 69% according to Panamanian statistics, followed by Colombians (6%), Ecuadorians (5%), Chinese (4%), and Haitians (4%). The rest come from over fifty countries worldwide.

On July 1, when Mulino began his five-year term, Panama and the United States signed an agreement under which the U.S. government covers the costs of repatriating migrants who entered through Darién. Under this program, which is funded with $6 million, more than 1,000 people have already been deported, mostly Colombians.

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Central America

Ten dead in Panama due to storms causing over $100 million in damages

Ten people have died in Panama due to storms that have caused over $100 million in damages from flooding and infrastructure collapse in the last ten days, President José Raúl Mulino reported on Thursday.

The most affected areas are the western provinces of Chiriquí, which borders Costa Rica, Veraguas, and the indigenous Ngäbe Buglé comarca, due to heavy rains that have been falling for more than ten days.

During his weekly press conference, Mulino initially stated that the storm had caused five deaths, but this was immediately corrected by the director of the National Civil Protection Service (Sinaproc), Omar Smith, who confirmed that the number of deaths had risen to ten.

“What worries me are the human lives, I think we had five (deaths), how many? Ten already? Imagine that,” Mulino said.

Last year, Panama experienced a drought that led to reduced traffic through the interoceanic canal, which operates on fresh water, but the situation began to normalize this year with the onset of the rainy season, which has been abundant since May.

The president announced that the government will declare a state of emergency for the affected areas, where rivers have overflowed, homes have been damaged, landslides have occurred, roads have collapsed, and crops have been lost.

“Based on the reports I’ve received, the damage is significant,” Mulino noted.

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Central America

Bukele urges Costa Rica to reform prison system amid rising crime rates

El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele, recommended that Costa Rica toughen its prison system, describing it as too “permissive” after visiting a Costa Rican prison with his counterpart, Rodrigo Chaves, on Tuesday at the end of an official visit.

“We believe the prison system should be less permissive, focusing more on the rights of those outside and a country’s right to security,” Bukele said after touring the La Reforma prison, located 23 km east of San José.

During Bukele’s visit to Costa Rica, the two presidents discussed different security approaches and strategies to combat organized crime. They also signed memorandums of understanding on tourism, trade, and bilateral relations.

Bukele noted the contrasts between Costa Rica’s prison system and that of El Salvador, which he reformed as part of his “war” against gangs launched in March 2022 under a state of emergency allowing arrests without warrants.

The Salvadoran president pointed out Costa Rica’s high cost per inmate, which he estimated at around $1,200 per month.

“They are spending nearly two minimum wages per inmate. It’s an injustice,” Bukele stated, adding that Costa Rica’s penal system “needs reform.”

Regarding inmate rights, Bukele suggested limiting intimate visits and TV access to prevent prisons from becoming “headquarters for crime.”

“We hope you take the necessary measures,” Bukele said about the increase in crime in Costa Rica, which has seen 757 homicides in 2024, mostly related to drug trafficking.

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