On the fourth anniversary of the Doha Agreement (2020), signed between the United States government and the Afghan Taliban, the pact continues to be viewed as one of Washington’s major mistakes in Afghanistan, resulting in the empowerment of the armed movement and the loss of influence in a territory now being reclaimed by China.

Earlier this month, when United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres convened a meeting in Doha with international representatives and the de facto Taliban government, the fundamentalists refused to participate, setting conditions and demonstrating their control over the negotiations.

“If this (the agreement and the outcome of Doha) is fine, then what were the last twenty years of war for? The United States intentionally handed Afghanistan over to an extremist group despite the presence of hundreds of thousands of soldiers from the national army and the sacrifices of the Afghan people,” questioned analyst Abdul Haleem Nasiri.

Void of Interests

The gap continues to widen between Western interests and Afghanistan, as the Doha Agreement not only hastened the downfall of the democratic government but also opened the door to a ‘de-Westernization’ of Central Asia.

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For neighboring countries like China, with a 92-kilometer border with Afghanistan, communication with the new order in Kabul is essential for security and maintaining a connection with Central and Southern Asia.

“China has never rejected Afghanistan as a neighboring country and needs to have a close relationship as they did during the twenty years of the previous government,” said political expert Abdul Jabbar Akbari to EFE, adding that the growing relationship between Beijing and Kabul “could create a headache for US policies in Central Asia.”

China’s Reconquest

Since the return to power of the Taliban in August 2021, China has made several diplomatic gestures, and on January 31, its president, Xi Jinping, received credentials from Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi, who was until recently the group’s deputy spokesperson.

China thus became the first country to officially accredit an Afghan ambassador, despite the Taliban not having recognition from the international community.

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“That China accepted the Taliban ambassador is both paradoxical and transactional, to safeguard its interest in Afghanistan’s mines and lithium and to keep the Taliban happy as potential future allies,” explained analyst Abdul Haleem Nasiri to EFE.

China is also “being cautious,” warns the analyst, referring to Beijing’s possible doubts that the Taliban have some discreet alliance with the US, so it would have to “handle both sides carefully,” Nasiri added.

Qian Feng, an academic researcher at the National Strategic Institute of Tsinghua University and the Taihe Institute, explained to EFE that for Beijing, the priority is “security” and that the Taliban take “decisive measures against all terrorist forces” and “ensure the viability of China’s projects.”

“Afghanistan cannot once again become a refuge and breeding ground for terrorism,” he asserted.

Beijing Bets on Stability

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China, critical of the United States’ role, emphasizes its opposition to foreign intervention in Afghanistan and, according to Qian, seeks to develop “strong” relations based on cooperation that, in the medium term, lead to negotiations to establish diplomatic relations.

China is betting on economic prosperity and political stability to prevent “turbulence” and ensure a favorable external environment for trade, the expert considers.

“It must be said that since this Taliban government took power, violence has decreased, security has improved, and efforts have been made to combat the illegal cultivation, production, and trade of drugs. They are also improving in terms of building an open political structure and protecting minorities, at least compared to their previous mandate,” the academic affirmed.

Beijing also seeks to protect its investment projects in Central Asia and prevent the spread of regional terrorism following the withdrawal of US troops.

Analysts have also highlighted China’s interest in Afghanistan’s natural resources, including oil, lithium deposits, or rare earths – vital elements for the development and production of technologies like electric vehicle batteries – whose value is estimated at nearly a trillion dollars.

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