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Putin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war with Ukraine and the West, which would be due to his unexpected decision to replace his faithful Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, with an economist who will be in charge of modernizing the military industry.

“It is your right, if you want to (solve the crisis) on the battlefield, because it will be on the battlefield,” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said on Monday, when speaking before the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Senate.

The information bomb that exploded on Sunday night had a greater impact because of the name of its substitute, the gray economist Andrei Belousov, in charge of the Government for the production of drones, an aspect in which Kiev has a clear advantage.

Belousov, whose candidacy will be endorsed on Tuesday by the Senate, will now have to manage a war economy with a defense budget of 6.7%, similar to that of the USSR in the last years of the Cold War.

Putin always defended the criticism of Shoigu, who was vilified by the absence of a clear strategy on the battlefield, especially since the campaign stalled in July 2022.

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Shoigu, who in twelve years in office also led the military operation in Syria, played a very useful role for the Kremlin, since he served as a parapet against attacks by hawks such as the late founder of the Wagner company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who accused him of “criminal negligence.”

The Russian leader made changes in the generalate after the withdrawals of Kherson and Kharkov, and the armed rebellion of Prigozhin in June 2023, but had patience with Shoigu.

What he didn’t forgive was corruption. Shoigu’s right-hand man, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on April 23 after being accused of large-scale corruption.

“The cleaning has begun in the Ministry of Defense, but it will continue,” said Sergey Mironov, a social democratic leader and friend of Prigozhin.

According to experts, since then the fate of the Minister of Defense was cast. He said goodbye when he directed the Victory Day military stop over Nazi Germany in the Red Square on May 9.

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All Russia’s defense ministers since Putin arrived at the Kremlin in 2000 have been civilians, but Belousov was a more than unlikely candidate, since he has no military experience, according to the press.

In fact, in his first public appearance on Monday before the Senate defense and security committee, Belousov answered questions about the social problems faced by soldiers when they return from the front.

“He is a civilian, he is not a soldier. The military actions, the special military operation, the command, is directed by the General Staff under the command of the Supreme Commander. There is no change here, the work continues. No one should be worried,” said Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Senate.

It is an open secret that it is Putin and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerásimov, who set the military strategy and priorities on the battlefield.

The change in Defense coincides with the current Russian offensive in the Donbas and in the northeastern region of Kharkov, where Russian troops have opened a second front by conquering several Ukrainian localities.

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Putin’s decision, a little friend of the purges within the government, adds to the surprising replacement of Nikolai Patrushev, one of the most influential figures in the hard core of the Kremlin.

Pátrushev, one of the ideologues of the narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist, ceased to be secretary of the Security Council, since he will now assume Shoigu.

The risk of technocrats like Belousov, not always supporters of the use of force, is compensated by their effective management of resources and their limited fondness for conspiracies, as happened with the generals who supported the Prigozhin uprising.

In fact, the new minister will have to strengthen the links between the Armed Forces and the defense industry, which will be the locomotive of the economy, since the victory in the war and the viability of social programs depends on it.

The weapons factories have hired more than half a million people “in just over a year,” as the new first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, admitted today.

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According to the Russian press in exile and the Institute for the Study of War, everything indicates that Putin is preparing for a long military campaign that will require very careful management of state resources, as long as oil prices are above $60.

International

The AP agency sues the Trump Government after being banned for writing Gulf of Mexico

The American press agency Associated Press (AP) announced this Friday that it has sued three members of the Donald Trump Administration after being banned from the Oval Office and the presidential plane Air Force One for not complying with the directive of calling the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America.

“The press and all people in the United States have the right to choose their own words and not to be retaliated for it by the Government. The Constitution does not allow the Government to control freedom of expression,” the media maintains.

In its style guide, AP decided to continue calling the Gulf of Mexico “by its original name”, still mentioning the new name chosen by Trump, since it is a body of water that shares a border with Mexico and Cuba.

The White House formally blocked AP’s access to the Oval Office and Air Force One on February 14. “We are very proud of this country and we want it to be the Gulf of America,” Trump said on Tuesday.

The agency’s lawsuit, of 18 pages and filed before a federal court in Washington DC, alleges that they have decided to take this step to claim their right to editorial independence and prevent the Executive from coercing journalists to use only a language approved by it.

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Trump signed the executive order to change the name to Gulf of America on January 20, the first day of his return to power. He later named February 9 as ‘ Gulf of America Day’.

The AP complaint is specifically directed against the president’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, his number two, Taylor Budowich, and the White House spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt.

This Thursday, more than thirty US media asked the Government to restore AP’s participation in presidential events and not to take into account “the editorial point of view” when limiting access to the White House.

Among the signatories are the television networks Fox News and Newsmax, with a conservative tinge, in addition to other large newspapers such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, The Wall Street Journal or The Atlantic.

AP highlighted when reporting on his complaint that this Friday Trump referred to that agency as “radical left-wing lunatics”: It is “a third-rate company with a first name,” he said about it, the main one in the country and founded in 1846.

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International

Buenos Aires advances legislative elections to May 18 and suspends the primaries

The Legislature of the city of Buenos Aires approved this Friday the suspension of the open, simultaneous and mandatory primary elections (PASO), a measure that, according to the deputy head of government, Clara Muzzio, “allows to save 20 billion pesos (about 18,894 million dollars)”, and advanced the legislative elections for May 18.

“The City Legislature suspended the PASO, a measure that saves $20 billion for neighbors,” Muzzio announced on Friday.

For his part, the mayor of the City, Jorge Macri, maintained that the PASO “were an expensive mechanism that only solved the problems of politicians, not of the people.”

The May 18 elections, which were originally scheduled for July, will be held through the Single Electronic Ballot system.

In that instance, the inhabitants of the city of Buenos Aires will elect their local legislators and, in October, they will have to return to the polls to define, together with the rest of the country, the composition of the chambers of Deputies and Senators.

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“The fact that the elections are in May allows each Buenos Aires to decide on their own city, without being tied to national discussions,” said the mayor.

The project was approved in the Buenos Aires legislature with 55 votes in favor, 3 against and one abstention, after an agreement between the main political forces.

The suspension of the primaries in the City of Buenos Aires occurs one day after the Argentine Parliament approved the same measure at the national level.

The original project sent by the national government sought the elimination of the primary system but finally, given the lack of support for that objective, the government chose to promote an initiative that suspends them for this year.

The primary election system was first implemented in Argentina to define the candidates for the 2011 general elections, based on a political reform approved by Parliament at the end of 2009, with the aim of democratizing political representation, transparency and electoral equity.

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According to the PASO system, to be qualified to compete in the general elections, candidates or lists of candidates must achieve at least 1.5% of the total votes in the primaries.

All parties are obliged to participate in the primaries, although they do not necessarily have to present more than one list of candidates to decide which one will lead to the general elections, an option for which the majority of the forces have opted in the last elections.

That is one of the reasons why the system has been questioned, among which are also its costs and the cumbersomeness of the organization.

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International

Trump threatens to impose tariffs on governments that apply digital fees to US companies

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, signed an executive order on Friday that threatens to impose tariffs on foreign governments that apply digital fees to US companies, including Spain, the United Kingdom and France.

The order states that “foreign governments have exercised a growing extraterritorial authority over US companies, particularly in the technology sector,” and directly cites the taxes on digital services that “several business partners” apply since 2019.

According to the text, the Trump Administration will impose tariffs on those governments that use taxes or regulations that are “discriminatory, disproportionate or designed to transfer significant funds or intellectual property from US companies to that government or its chosen domestic entities.”

Trump delegates to the US Trade Representative the possibility of “renewing investigations” on the so-called technology fees of Spain, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Austria and Turkey, imposed in the first term of the Republican, and if so, “take all appropriate actions”, which would include the imposition of tariffs.

“US companies will no longer sustain failed foreign economies through fines and extortionational taxes,” says the White House document, which provides for a “process” for them to “report” these “disproportionate” measures to the Commercial Representative.

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He also instructs him to investigate together with the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce whether in the European Union or the United Kingdom the use of products or services of US companies is “required or encouraged” to “undermine freedom of expression”, political activity or, “otherwise, moderate content”.

It also suggests to the Representative, among other things, to hold “a panel” with its partners of the T-MEC (Canada and Mexico) on the tax on digital services in Canada, and identify ways to achieve a “permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions”.

The order does not mention any specific company, but mainly affects large technology companies such as Apple, Google (subsidiary of Alphabet), Meta and Amazon, which have precisely starred in a resounded approach to President Trump since he won the elections in November.

In his first term (2017-2021), Trump ordered to investigate the digital fees to his companies abroad and threatened to apply tariffs to the six countries indicated today; taxes were imposed in the government of his successor, the Democrat Joe Biden, and subsequently suspended.

Trump signed another executive order aimed at restricting access to US technology, especially in the field of artificial intelligence, what he calls “foreign adversaries”, including Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Russia and China.

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The executive order does not specify in detail what measures will be taken to restrict the access of these “foreign adversaries” to US technology.

Under the label of “foreign adversaries”, the order identifies China, Hong Kong, Macau, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia and the “regime of Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro”, according to the text.

Trump justifies his decision with the argument that “economic security is national security” and maintains that the country must protect its sensitive infrastructures and technologies, from artificial intelligence to semiconductors and advances in biotechnology.

The executive order focuses especially on China, pointing out that companies linked to Beijing have used investments in the US to access key technologies and that the Chinese government is taking advantage of US technology to modernize its military apparatus.

Since his return to the White House on January 20, Trump has announced several restrictions on trade with the aim of balancing the trade balance and pressuring countries such as Mexico and Canada to make concessions on immigration and efforts against drug trafficking.

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It has imposed a 10% tariff on China, which is in addition to the rates already applied during its first term (2017-2021).

Trump’s new restrictions come after his predecessor, Joe Biden, took steps to limit exports of semiconductors and artificial intelligence technology to China, which led Beijing to respond with export controls on graphite, a key material for electric vehicle batteries.

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