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Will Trump’s verdict impact his presidential career?

For a long time, former US president Donald Trump has been leading the polls to return to the White House in front of a Joe Biden in low hours. The country wonders this Friday if the Republican’s guilty verdict will impact his presidential career.

Trump on Thursday became the first former U.S. president to be found guilty in a criminal trial, in his case on 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records related to the payment of a porn actress to protect her presidential career in 2016.

The Republican politician, who has denounced from the beginning that he suffers a “witch hunt,” declared that the “royal verdict” will be given by the voters in the elections on November 5.

Biden also took advantage of the historic day to campaign and affirm that “there is only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the polls,” said the Democratic president.

After the jury’s guilty verdict was heard, it is the turn of Judge Juan Merchán, who will announce the sentence on July 11, a few days before the Republican Party officially names Trump as its candidate at the National Convention to be held in Milwaukee (Wisconsin).

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Each of the crimes carries penalties of up to 4 years in prison, which can be served simultaneously, although the judge can also opt for other alternatives such as parole, house arrest or fines.

Of course, the defiant behavior that Trump has had during the trial will not serve to mitigate his sentence.
But since he has already turned 77 and has no criminal record, “it is very unlikely that he will go to jail,” Mark Smith, a constitutionalist expert at Cedarville University (Ohio), tells EFE.

In addition, in the event that he was sentenced to prison, this would not disable him from participating in next November’s elections, in which he tries to take the charge from Biden.

The defense of the tycoon will appeal the judge’s decision and will try to extend the judicial process to the maximum, trying to get the final sentence out when he is already the new president in the White House.

According to Smith, if he received a prison sentence already as president, his compliance would be delayed until after his term in office since it would be considered that “his role as president is more important” than immediately complying with a sentence of a state court.

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Therefore, the doubt of whether voters will punish Trump after hearing the verdict and the sentence becomes even more important. The indications so far point to the opposite.

Neither the details of the trial nor the other three criminal charges that weigh on Trump (two for electoral interference in 2020 and another for having taken classified documents from the White House) have diminished his strong electoral base in a very polarized country.

According to the average of polls made by the FiveThirtyEight portal, Trump would win the elections at the national level with 41.3% of the votes compared to 39.3% of Biden.

A survey published by the public media NPR and PBS before the guilty verdict was known reflected that 67% of Americans do not intend to change the meaning of their vote based on what the jury decided on Trump.

The trial IN New York is also perceived as the least serious one faced by Trump, but the other three are paralyzed waiting for the Supreme Court to decide if the former president has immunity and can hardly be carried out before the elections.

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The Republican appeared this Friday before the press in a new attempt to mobilize his base, where he called the trial in New York “rigged” and claimed that he continues to lead the polls.

For political scientist Geoffrey Bowden, it is clear that the Republican’s strategy will continue to be to “affirm that the judicial system is manipulated” and act as “a victim.”

“Trump’s most loyal supporters will believe that the whole process is rigged but most Americans don’t believe it,” the analyst told EFE.

A prison sentence, therefore, could demobilize Trump’s more moderate voters and that is dangerous for the Republican in key states where elections are tighter, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

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International

Noboa once again entrusts the Vice President of Ecuador to the vice president he appointed by decree

The President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, returned this Thursday to delegate – for the second time – the Presidency to the Secretary of Public Administration and Cabinet of the Presidency Cynthia Gellibert, whom he himself appointed by decree vice president in charge, in the face of the open confrontation he maintains with the vice president, Verónica Abad.

As he did last week, Noboa again issued a decree in which he announces that he is absent from the Presidency from Thursday to Sunday, to make an electoral campaign in search of his re-election in the elections of February 9, and during that period of time it will be Gellibert who will be in charge of the head of the State.

This action of the president of Ecuador is a matter of evaluation by the ordinary and constitutional justice at the request of the vice president, Verónica Abad, who claims to assume the presidential functions during the full period of the electoral campaign, in which according to the Constitution the head of state must ask for leave for being a candidate for re-election.

In his decree, Noboa argues that, although the Constitution determines that the Vice Presidency must assume the head of State in the event of the absence of the president, this “is not limited to the elected vice-president, but to the person who to date is exercising the functions of the Vice Presidency.”

Before appointing Gellibert as vice president in charge by decree, Noboa sent Abad to the Ecuadorian Embassy in Turkey, after a judge annulled the five-month suspension that the same Government had imposed on him. Until now, the vice president remains in Ecuador to claim to be the one who temporarily assumes the Presidency.

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The new period of Gellibert with presidential powers began at 18:00 local time (23:00 GMT) this Thursday and is scheduled to end at 22:00 (03:00 GMT) next Sunday, time at which the debate between presidential candidates is expected to end where Noboa is summoned to participate.

After the debate, Noboa plans to travel to Washington to attend Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, according to the Ecuadorian Presidency.

After the first assignment of the Presidency to Gellibert, Abad denounced a “coup d’état” and urged the Organization of American States (OAS) to apply the Democratic Charter, considering that the constitutional order had been broken because it had not received the presidential powers, as contemplated in the Ecuadorian Constitution.

In addition, he filed a protection action with which he seeks that the Justice annul the decrees in which Noboa appointed Gellibert as vice president in charge and delegated the Presidency to him. A court admitted the appeal on Friday, but did not accept some precautionary measures that Abad also asked for to suspend those effects immediately.

Controversies like this will be part of the analysis and evaluation of the electoral observation mission (EOM) of the European Union (EU) for the Ecuadorian elections, as anticipated on Wednesday by its leader, Spanish MEP Gabriel Mato.

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The confrontation between Noboa and Abad began in the electoral campaign for the second round of elections for the extraordinary elections of 2023, and was reflected when he assumed the charges, when in one of his first decisions, the president sent the vice president to Israel as ambassador, with the mission of seeking peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

Abad has denounced Noboa for alleged political gender violence and has accused her of leading a harassment against her to force her to resign and thus avoid having to delegate the Presidency to her during the electoral campaign period, which runs from January 5 to February 6.

The titular vice president has also accused the Government of being behind the corruption investigation in the offices of the Vice Presidency that involves her son in a case where the Prosecutor’s Office also sought to indict Abad, but the National Assembly (Parliament) voted mostly against lifting the jurisdiction, although the ruling party voted in favor.

The general elections in Ecuador are called for Sunday, February 9 and, according to the polls published so far, Noboa and the candidate of the correismo Luisa González appear as prominent favorites to move on to the second round.

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International

Musk’s Starship was lost after a smooth takeoff

The second stage of the Starship spacecraft, the largest and most powerful rocket in the world, was lost this Thursday after a smooth takeoff from the SpaceX base in Boca Chica, in southern Texas (USA), on the border with Mexico.

Before confirming the news, the company of technology tycoon Elon Musk pointed out during the live broadcast that it had lost contact with the rocket, which was supposed to dwell in the Indian Ocean.

However, the takeoff itself had no problems, and even the first stage, the Super Heavy, managed to return to land, to the base, and be caught by the clamps in a spectacular way, for the second time.

“The Starship spacecraft suffered a rapid and unforeseen dismantling during its ascent. The teams will continue to review the data from today’s flight test to better understand the root cause,” SpaceX said on the social network X.

He added that in a test like this, “success depends on what we learn, and today’s flight will help us improve the reliability of the Starship spacecraft.”

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The rocket had been improved for this seventh test flight and the part that was lost was carrying cargo into space for the first time, in this case a dozen replicas of Starlink internet satellites.

The lost spacecraft was to fly in a suborbital trajectory for about an hour, after which it planned to land in the Indian Ocean, as in the last tests.

In these initial test flights, the idea is not to reach orbit but to go around the planet and descend by the tail ahead and propelled by rockets in the Indian Ocean.

The SpaceX company signed up for a new success on Thursday with the launch of the seventh test flight of the Starship, the largest and most powerful rocket in the world, which this time was improved, took cargo into space for the first time and also managed to catch the propeller on the ground for the second time on its return to the base in Texas.

The rocket had taken off today at 16:37 local time (22:37 GMT) powered by the Super Heavy as planned after several delays due to unfavorable weather conditions.

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SpaceX proposed in this new Starship test to launch a ship with significant improvements, and attempt the first payload deployment test, the Starlink.

He also wanted to fly multiple reentry experiments aimed at capturing and reusing ships, and launching and returning the Super Heavy thruster to the base in Texas, as he succeeded.

As in the most recent test flights, the first stage propelled the upper one out of the dense lower atmosphere before returning in a controlled manner.

Remains of the Starship ship, the largest and most powerful rocket in the world, passed through the north of the Dominican Republic, according to electronic news pages from the United States and according to images spread on social networks.

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International

Mark Carney announces his candidacy to replace Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada

Former Bank of Canada governor (2008-2013) Mark Carney announced on Thursday that he will present his candidacy to lead the Liberal Party and become the country’s prime minister.

Carney, 59, who was also governor of the Bank of England (2013-2020), is the first of the main candidates to publicly communicate his desire to replace Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation in December.

In a speech in the city of Edmonton, in the west of the country, he acknowledged that “the system is not working as it should” and that many people do not find affordable housing or a family doctor.

With a centrist and nationalist language, Carney declared that “these are normal times for us” and warned that “in just four days Donald Trump will become the 47th president (of the United States), a man who threatens his closest and most faithful allies, including Canada, with economic strength.”

In this sense, he explained that he wants to be the leader of the Liberal Party and Canadian Prime Minister because Canada faces “unprecedented challenges.”

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Carney also referred to the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, whom polls point so far as the winner of the next general elections, and criticized that he is worried “looking for the support of Donald Trump and Elon Musk.”

“Sending Poilievre to negotiate with Trump is the worst possible idea,” he added.

The former governor of the Bank of Canada recalled the seven years he spent at the head of the Bank of England: “In the United Kingdom I saw from the front row what happened there after years in which the conservatives shouted that the country was broken.”

“Conservatives don’t shout that Canada is broken because they want to fix it, what they want is permission to destroy it,” he said.
Carney concluded by pointing out that he will win the next elections to “build a strong economy for all and to defend Canada against Trump.”

The Liberal Party will reveal on March 9 the name of Trudeau’s substitute, who on December 16 announced that he will resign when the political formation chooses his substitute.

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Chrystia Freeland, until December vice prime minister of the country, is expected to announce her candidacy next week, which will make her Carney’s main rival.

The opposition parties, which have a majority in Parliament, have already announced that as soon as the sessions of Parliament resume on March 24, they will present a motion of censure to hold early elections.

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