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Will Trump’s verdict impact his presidential career?

For a long time, former US president Donald Trump has been leading the polls to return to the White House in front of a Joe Biden in low hours. The country wonders this Friday if the Republican’s guilty verdict will impact his presidential career.

Trump on Thursday became the first former U.S. president to be found guilty in a criminal trial, in his case on 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records related to the payment of a porn actress to protect her presidential career in 2016.

The Republican politician, who has denounced from the beginning that he suffers a “witch hunt,” declared that the “royal verdict” will be given by the voters in the elections on November 5.

Biden also took advantage of the historic day to campaign and affirm that “there is only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the polls,” said the Democratic president.

After the jury’s guilty verdict was heard, it is the turn of Judge Juan Merchán, who will announce the sentence on July 11, a few days before the Republican Party officially names Trump as its candidate at the National Convention to be held in Milwaukee (Wisconsin).

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Each of the crimes carries penalties of up to 4 years in prison, which can be served simultaneously, although the judge can also opt for other alternatives such as parole, house arrest or fines.

Of course, the defiant behavior that Trump has had during the trial will not serve to mitigate his sentence.
But since he has already turned 77 and has no criminal record, “it is very unlikely that he will go to jail,” Mark Smith, a constitutionalist expert at Cedarville University (Ohio), tells EFE.

In addition, in the event that he was sentenced to prison, this would not disable him from participating in next November’s elections, in which he tries to take the charge from Biden.

The defense of the tycoon will appeal the judge’s decision and will try to extend the judicial process to the maximum, trying to get the final sentence out when he is already the new president in the White House.

According to Smith, if he received a prison sentence already as president, his compliance would be delayed until after his term in office since it would be considered that “his role as president is more important” than immediately complying with a sentence of a state court.

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Therefore, the doubt of whether voters will punish Trump after hearing the verdict and the sentence becomes even more important. The indications so far point to the opposite.

Neither the details of the trial nor the other three criminal charges that weigh on Trump (two for electoral interference in 2020 and another for having taken classified documents from the White House) have diminished his strong electoral base in a very polarized country.

According to the average of polls made by the FiveThirtyEight portal, Trump would win the elections at the national level with 41.3% of the votes compared to 39.3% of Biden.

A survey published by the public media NPR and PBS before the guilty verdict was known reflected that 67% of Americans do not intend to change the meaning of their vote based on what the jury decided on Trump.

The trial IN New York is also perceived as the least serious one faced by Trump, but the other three are paralyzed waiting for the Supreme Court to decide if the former president has immunity and can hardly be carried out before the elections.

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The Republican appeared this Friday before the press in a new attempt to mobilize his base, where he called the trial in New York “rigged” and claimed that he continues to lead the polls.

For political scientist Geoffrey Bowden, it is clear that the Republican’s strategy will continue to be to “affirm that the judicial system is manipulated” and act as “a victim.”

“Trump’s most loyal supporters will believe that the whole process is rigged but most Americans don’t believe it,” the analyst told EFE.

A prison sentence, therefore, could demobilize Trump’s more moderate voters and that is dangerous for the Republican in key states where elections are tighter, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

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IICA’s Director-General, Manuel Otero, explained that the funds will support the strategy to combat the disease in 2025, focusing on two key areas: strengthening communication campaigns, awareness, and health education; and improving case reporting, notification, and the purchase of sampling kits and authorized healing products to ensure a more effective response in the region.

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The president called last week’s visit by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Kyiv a “waste of time,” as he tried to secure an agreement on the exploitation of Ukraine’s natural resources. Zelensky rejected the offer presented by Bessent, which would have granted the U.S. access to 50% of Ukraine’s strategic minerals in exchange for American support during the war, as well as future assistance for Kyiv.

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