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How will the rise of the far right influence the day-to-day life of the EU and the European Parliament?

The European elections to renew the European Parliament have certified an increase in seats throughout the EU of ultra-conservative and far-right parties, which are placed as the first force in France, Italy, the Netherlands or Austria.

As a result, they will have more weight in decisions such as the orientation of the EU budget between 2027 and 2034, the position of the European Parliament in the defense of the rule of law and European values, the future expansion to the east or the progress in implementing climate objectives.

The coming weeks and months will determine what their real capacity for influence is, if they manage to coordinate their positions in the hemicycle and how the day-to-day legislative work in the European Union will change.

In practice, the European elections redesign only one of the three community institutions involved in the legislative process. The European Council (the Heads of State and Government) and the Council of the EU (the ministers of the Member States) remain stable, since they only renew their members when there are elections at the national level.

This means, for example, that Emmanuel Macron and his ministers will continue to represent France in the Council even though Marine Le Pen has won the European elections in France.

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A Parliament left to the right may have some influence to unbalance the confirmation vote of the president of the European Commission or the approval of his team of commissioners, but these will also be by definition “multicolored” politically because they are sent by their governments.

Most decisions in the European Parliament require the favorable vote of half plus one of the MEPs who cast their vote, so the combined 131 seats of the Conservatives and Reformists and Identity and Democracy (waiting for the like-minded non-attached) are not enough in a European Parliament with 720 seats.

To be noticed, they will need, as has been the case so far, almost all of the European People’s Party, which in this legislature inherits from the liberals the role of the “majority facilitator”: the block supported by the popular in each individual vote, whether the center-left or the ultra-right, will take the cat to the water.

Due to the nature of these groups, which often do not have enough cohesion or internal structure and respond to national interests rather than their European Parliamentary group, it tends to be difficult to find a stable majority to move legislation forward, but they can push for concrete amendments.

“It will take longer than other times to draw conclusions from these 27 elections in parallel and translate them into a clear parliamentary majority, which in my opinion will be flexible instead of permanent and will change depending on the proposals presented by the new Commission to Parliament,” said the professor of European Union Law at HEC Paris Alberto Alemanno.

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The same analyst pointed to the rise of unregistered parties or newcomers without a political family that “could play a role in recomposing the existing groups and shaping the new political cycle.”

And it is that the “cake” of the hemicycle is not yet completely distributed after this Sunday’s elections, with almost a hundred MEPs who do not belong to any group or who arrive new to the European Parliament and have not yet been associated with one of the existing ones.

From today, they can look for fit in existing groups or, if new groups are formed, join them. It will be the case of the Alternative for Germany, which will provide 15 seats, or Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, with 10.

With them and other related groups, arithmetically it will be possible to unite the votes of popular, ultra-conservative, extreme right-right and non-registered people who sympathize with their ideas to, occasionally, carry out narrow majorities such as the one that was about to destroy the Law of the Restoration of Nature in the legislature that now ends.

The need for total cohesion in the hemicycle disappears in other decisions within the European Parliament. They are taken by weighted vote in parliamentary forums such as the Conference of Presidents (which brings together the president of the institution and heads of political groups) or among the coordinators of the political groups in the different parliamentary committees.

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In these spaces, the representative of each political group arrogates the voice and vote of all its MEPs, with no room for dissension, and – if it reaches 361 seats – EPP, ECR and ID could decant the balance in decisions on the agenda or legislative work, among others.

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International

Indigenous candidate Leonidas Iza predicts a new social explosion if there is no change in Ecuador

The presidential candidate of Ecuador for the indigenous movement, Leonidas Iza, who was part of the wave of protests of 2019 and who led that of 2022, reveals himself as an “anti-system” politician in the face of “a corrupt system” that he intends to reformulate to relieve the impoverished, because he predicts a new social explosion if there is no change in the Government to meet popular demands.

Iza, 42, is the candidate of Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie) that he himself presides over, and with which he was at the forefront of the 2022 wave of protests against the government of conservative President Guillermo Lasso, where he was arrested and even labeled a “terrorist.”

“I am one of those who has never lost the ability to be outraged when governments have had policies against their own citizens,” Iza, a native of the Andean province of Cotopaxi, said in an interview with EFE.

“I am not against the private sector, I am against those who do not pay taxes and those who come to the Government only to defend their companies,” said the candidate in reference to the last two presidents (Lasso and Daniel Noboa).

“We fight for social justice, not to be violent. It is a reaction to the injustice to which we have been subjected,” he said.

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For Iza, who represents the anti-extractivist left of Ecuador, the country has “a corrupt system, a health system that does not work, a deficient and unfair economic system, and public services that are not helping citizens.”

“And that’s what we want to change. We won’t be able to do it overnight, but the State can give relief to the people,” the candidate said.

To do this, it proposes to fight against tax evasion, which amounts to about 7.5 billion dollars a year, and also against corruption, which is estimated at about 3 billion dollars per year, to balance public accounts without having to follow the current credit program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that asks to cut public spending and raise taxes.

He also aimed to increase agricultural productivity, as well as boost tourism to go from 1 to 3 million visitors a year, and anticipated that he will regulate small and artisanal mining to avoid illegal mining but will not allow large-scale mining because it considers that it can contaminate the country’s large river basins.

Iza anticipated that he will not pay the external debt as long as there are “guaguas (children, in Kichwa) who have no education and are dying of hunger, and colleagues who are dying for lack of health.”

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“We will tell the IMF and the other multilaterals that we are going to pay, but first we are going to solve the structural problem we have at the moment: education, health and minimum conditions for security,” he warned.

In that sense, Iza pointed out that “the strength of a popular reaction in the streets is accumulating” that must be resolved by whoever is elected. “Knowing my country, which has been on the streets all its life, there will be a popular reaction if (the discomfort) is not resolved in the following months,” he reiterated.

“The option that understands the people is us, and not the sectors that have always been in the Government,” said Iza, who avoided pointing out whether that reaction will reach the dimensions of the strong protests of 2019 and 2022, both led by the indigenous movement.

In this electoral campaign, Iza has left his distinctive Andean red poncho to put on the bulletproof vest in the face of the persistent wave of violence of organized crime that the country is experiencing, because he warned that the “war” that Noboa declared to the criminal gangs has not worked because its leaders are still free.

Faced with this, he promised “a hard hand for all” and recalled that “state institutions must suffocate everyone (criminals)”.

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The candidate also advocated deepening international cooperation: “there must be a responsibility of all countries (producers, consumers and drug transit), especially in the region (of Latin America)”.

Asked if Ecuadorian society is ready to have an indigenous president of rural origin, Iza sees himself with popular support to face “the most reactionary sectors that have support in racism and stigmatization.”

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International

Deaths in a hotel fire in a ski resort in Turkey rise to 69

The fire that occurred this morning in a 12-story hotel in a ski resort in northwestern Turkey claimed at least 69 deaths, in addition to causing fifty injuries, according to the latest assessment of the country’s authorities.

The fire originated around 3.30 a.m. local time (0.30 GMT) in a hotel, built entirely of wood, in the Kartalkaya ski center, halfway between Istanbul and Ankara, with almost full occupancy.

The flames were extinguished after about ten hours of firefighters’ work and the authorities found the death of 66 people, in addition to rescuing 51 injured, compared to the 10 dead and 32 injured initially estimated.

The hotel, with 161 rooms, had an occupancy close to 90%, because these days are the winter school holidays in Turkey, says the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet.

The wooden construction and the location of the hotel at the foot of a ski slope, which only allows vehicle access from the front facade, made the intervention of firefighters difficult, the Turkish newspaper explained.

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According to the television network NTV, about 300 people, including employees, were in the hotel at the time of the fire, the causes of which are still unknown.

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Hamas calls for counterattack on Israeli soldiers during their incursion in the West Bank

The Islamist organization Hamas urged the Palestinians on Tuesday to intensify and support their militiamen in the clashes against the Israeli Army during the military incursion that began today in Yenin, in the north of the occupied West Bank.

“We call on the masses of our people in the West Bank and their revolutionary youth to mobilize and intensify the clashes against the (Israeli) occupation army at all points, and to work to thwart the extensive Zionist aggression against the city of Yenin.”

“This military operation launched by the occupation in Yenin will fail, as did all its previous military operations against our brave people and their tenacious resistance,” the Palestinian group said.

Since the beginning of the operation, nicknamed by the Army “Iron Wall”, at least seven Palestinians have died in Yenin and another 35 have been injured, according to data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

Hamas accused the forces of the Palestinian National Authority (ANP), President Mahmoud Abbas’ ruling party in the West Bank, of having left Yenin to allow the operation of Israeli troops, instead of defending the Palestinians.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended on Tuesday that the last assault launched by his forces against Yenin, in the north of the occupied West Bank, seeks to “eradicate terrorism.”

“This is another step towards the objective we have set ourselves: to strengthen security in Judea and Samaria (West Bank),” according to a statement released by its Office.

“We are acting systematically and decisively against the Iranian axis wherever it sends its weapons: in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Judea and Samaria (West Bank),” concludes the Israeli president’s note.

The rail comes shortly after the start of the ceasefire in Gaza, which includes a weekly exchange of hostages in the Strip for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

Following the release of the prisoners, the Army increased its presence in this occupied territory with seven companies, claiming to strengthen its “anti-terrorist efforts.”

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The images recorded in Yenin show dozens of Army vehicles accessing the local refugee camp, which has also been bombed by Israeli aviation.

The incursions and attacks of Israeli forces in Yenin, considered a bastion of Islamist-like militias, were already constant but they worsened after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023.

However, since mid-December it has been the security forces of the Palestinian National Authority (ANP), which governs small parts of the West Bank, that have led an offensive in this population, which until last Friday triggered armed fighting against the militiamen.

This exchange of fire has caused at least 15 people dead on both sides, including two minors.

The occupied West Bank is experiencing its greatest spiral of violence since the Second Intifada (2000-05), and in 2024 at least 491 Palestinians have died in the territory by Israeli fire, most of them militiamen from refugee camps, but also civilians, including at least 75 minors, according to EFE’s count.

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So far this year, at least 24 Palestinians have already died in Israeli attacks, five of them minors.

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