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The new Moscow-Pyonyang pact, a headache for the United States and allies… and for Beijing

Moscow and Pyongyang agreed to offer military assistance in case of aggression and paved the way for more defense exchanges, a movement that according to analysts leaves both Beijing, the greatest ally of both countries, and Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, in a complex situation, for which it raises the challenge.

The leaders of Russia and North Korea, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, signed the day before the so-called “Strategic Partnership Agreement,” the new road map for their bilateral relations that replaces previous diplomatic treaties, during the Kremlin president’s first visit to Pyongyang in 24 years.

Mutual military assistance in the face of an eventual attack is the most outstanding novelty of the document, with which Putin and Kim send a warning to the United States and its Asian allies – insisting that they abide by international law – and also redraw regional alliances under the watchful eye of Beijing.

“The pact means a renewal of the Cold War security guarantees considered deceased in 1990, when South Korea and Russia normalized relations,” said the American Victor Cha, former National Security Adser of the White House, through his account in X.

Cha, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, also believes that the agreement will mean “an escalation in military cooperation,” including more supply of North Korean munitions and ballistic missiles for the war in Ukraine, and “a possible proliferation of the shipment of Russian advanced technology to North Korea.”

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In addition to the potential impact on the conflict in Ukraine through the shipment of weapons that Washington, Seoul and other Western countries have been denouncing, the United States and its allies will now have to deal with formalized security ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Many analysts consider the mutual defense assistance clause precisely as a response to the largest military rapprochement between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo in recent years, including the collaboration of Japan and South Korea with NATO, and believe that it will also have the effect of pushing these three partners and other related countries to shield themselves even more against the Russian-North Korean axis.

“I think this will serve as a pretext to formalize the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral security relationship in the context of next month’s NATO summit in Washington,” says Cha.

Other experts highlight that the pact signed by Putin and Kim highlights the weaknesses that both countries face under the extensive regime of sanctions that weighs on them, and question how far military assistance could go in the event of conflict.

“There is no credible mechanism or political will to fight for each other or to develop a joint military strategy,” Patrick Cronin, director of Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, said in statements to the South Korean agency Yonhap.

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“Yes, there is a mute desire to show solidarity in opposition to a world order led by the United States,” Cronin said.

Experts point to the possible influence of Beijing when it comes to seeing the true course of the new pact between Russia and North Korea, traditional Chinese allies and increasingly dependent on the Asian giant.

“It is likely that China is nervous. Pyongyang is prioritizing Moscow over Beijing because Russia seems willing to offer Kim more than China gives her,” says Sydney Seiler, a former U.S. intelligence analyst and currently a CSIS researcher.

Cha, for his part, points out the possibility of an upcoming summit between Xi Jinping and Kim “to balance and align positions,” and also recalls that the Chinese president held his last meeting with the North Korean dictator in June 2019, months after the latter’s failed summit with former US President Donald Trump.

Xi, who also faces increasing pressure from the West for his support for Moscow during the invasion of Ukraine, received Putin in Beijing in May at a summit in which they claimed to open “a new era” of their relations, and according to some information, asked the Russian leader not to travel to Pyongyang immediately after his passage through China.

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Beijing for the moment has limited itself to pointing out that Moscow and Pyongyang “have the legitimate need for exchanges, cooperation and development of their relations as close and friendly neighbors,” according to Chinese Chancellor Lin Jian’s spokesman the day before.

 

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International

Democrats pressure Donald Trump with a vote in the Senate on in vitro fertilization

In an attempt to corner former US president and Republican candidate Donald Trump, Senate Democrats put to a vote on Tuesday a bill to guarantee access to ‘in vitro’ fertilization, a proposal that the conservatives blocked.

The vote took place just two weeks after Trump said that, if elected in the November 5 elections, he will not only protect access to in vitro fertilization, but will also make the Government or insurers cover the cost of this service.

Taking advantage of these statements with which they intend to attract moderate voters, the Senate Democrats decided to put the legislative initiative back to a vote, three months after it was blocked by the Republicans.

The architect of this strategy was the leader of the Democratic majority in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, who this Tuesday appeared with his co-religionists at a press conference on the stairs of Congress, surrounded by dozens of photos of families with children conceived by ‘in vitro’ fertilization.

“For many Americans, starting a family is one of the greatest joys. However, millions of people fight infertility every year. Unfortunately, as we have seen this year, access to ‘in vitro’ fertilization can no longer be taken for granted,” he said before the vote.

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The senator recalled how the conservative majority of the US Supreme Court ended in June 2022 with federal protections against abortion by repealing the ‘Roe vs Wade’ ruling, which protected that right for half a century, allowing each state to set its own rules.

Twenty months later, the highest judicial instance of the conservative state of Alabama banned ‘in vitro’ fertilization by accepting the argument of the evangelical right that frozen embryos should be considered children.

That decision, later reversed by the Alabama state parliament, has fueled the debate about this reproductive method that has infiltrated the election campaign. The vice president and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, defends the technique, while Trump has maintained ambiguous positions.

Although he recently expressed his support for in vitro fertilization, he has also repeatedly boasted of having appointed the three Supreme Court judges who contributed to annul the federal right to abortion.

Trump has promoted the idea that the Republican Party is a “leader” in ‘in vitro’ fertilization, but the reality is that the formation is divided: the moderates are committed to protecting this method and the most religious sectors consider that it should be banned.

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For his part, Harris has made the defense of reproductive rights a pillar of his campaign. In a statement issued after the Republican blockade of the measure, he harshly criticized the position of the Republican Party and described its resistance to women “freely deciding on their own bodies” as “extreme, dangerous and wrong.”

The legislative project, baptized as the “Law of the Right to ‘in vitro’ fertilization”, received the support of all Democrats and Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine). The rest of the Republicans opposed it.

The text only received 51 votes in favor and could not exceed the barrier of 60 supports necessary to be debated in the Senate and, subsequently, be submitted to a final vote.

The project aimed to make access to ‘in vitro’ fertilization more affordable by requiring some insurers to cover fertility treatments.

According to the FertilityIQ organization, dedicated to providing information and guidance on fertility, the average cost can exceed $20,000. However, the exact price depends on the circumstances of each patient, including the coverage of their insurance.

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International

The Government of Ecuador decrees a curfew in six provinces during a national blackout

The Government of Ecuador decreed a curfew in six provinces and one canton (municipality) of a seventh province during the eight hours that the power outage will last throughout the country, which will begin at 22:00 local time (03:00 GMT) on Wednesday.

The curfew will govern in the coastal provinces of Guayas, Los Ríos, Manabí, Orellana, Santa Elena, El Oro and in the municipality of Camilo Ponce Enríquez, in the province of Azuay.

In these same areas there is currently a state of emergency in force to face the organized crime gangs that operate in Ecuador, mainly dedicated to drug trafficking, and whose violence has led the country to register in 2023 the highest homicide rate in Latin America, with 47.2 per 100,000 inhabitants.

The Presidency indicated that police and military will strengthen their actions to ensure citizen and country security, “with special attention to the cantons (municipalities) and parishes in which this suspension of freedom of transit governs.”

He said that, in due course, he will communicate other complementary measures that they consider necessary depending on the situation next week.

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Wednesday’s blackout was initially attributed by the Government to maintenance in the national electrical infrastructure to face a new period of electricity rationing due to lack of generation in the main hydroelectric power plants in Ecuador, before what the Executive described as the worst dry season of the last 61 years.

But on Monday night, the Administration of President Daniel Noboa anticipated that from Monday to Thursday of next week there will also be eight-hour blackouts during the nights throughout the country, due to the impossibility of supplying the national demand for electricity.

During these blackouts, the Police will deploy more than 46,000 agents nationwide to carry out patrols that will focus especially on financial institutions, residential complexes, fuel service stations and prisons.

This was anticipated on Tuesday by the Chief of Police for the Metropolitan District of Quito, Henry Román, who pointed out that there will be police controls at the entrances and exits of the main cities of the country, where all vehicles will be inspected.

For its part, it is expected that the military will take control of the Mazar reservoir, the second largest in the country, as provided by Noboa in the previous days to avoid sabotage in this critical infrastructure for the supply of national electricity demand.

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The Mazar reservoir, located in the southern Andean province of Azuay, has a capacity of 410 million cubic meters of water and serves to supply a complex of three hydroelectric plants located in the Paute River basin with an installed capacity of 1,757 megawatts.

However, in recent days the level of this water reserve has dropped drastically due to the prolonged absence of rain.

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International

Harris expresses confidence in the Secret Service and criticizes Trump’s anti-migrant rhetoric

The vice president of the United States and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, expressed her confidence in the Secret Service on Tuesday, after the second assassination attempt suffered by former President Donald Trump, and charged against the anti-migrant rhetoric of the Republicans.

During a conversation with the National Association of African American Journalists, Harris said that she feels safe with the protection of the Secret Service and immediately criticized Trump’s campaign for spreading the lie that Haitian migrants from Springfield (Ohio) steal and eat the neighbors’ pets.

“I feel safe. I have the protection of the Secret Service, but that does not deter the importance of fighting for the safety of all people in our country,” he said.

The Democratic aspirant stressed that “not everyone has a Secret Service,” she regretted that “there are too many people who do not feel safe” and gave the example of Ohio, where threats against Haitians have grown due to the hoaxes of Trump and his vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance.

Likewise, Harris revealed that this same Tuesday he called Trump to talk about the assassination attempt he suffered on Sunday, when a man armed with a rifle was arrested in the vicinity of the West Palm Beach golf course (Florida) where the Republican was.

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“I told her what I have said in public: there is no room for political violence in our country,” the vice president said.

This is the second assassination attempt suffered by Trump so far in the campaign, after the one that occurred in July when a man shot the Republican at a rally in Butler (Pennsylvania).

Trump blamed on Monday the second attempted murder on the “lies” that Harris spreads against him and the “rhetoric of the communist left.”

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