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The new Moscow-Pyonyang pact, a headache for the United States and allies… and for Beijing

Moscow and Pyongyang agreed to offer military assistance in case of aggression and paved the way for more defense exchanges, a movement that according to analysts leaves both Beijing, the greatest ally of both countries, and Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, in a complex situation, for which it raises the challenge.

The leaders of Russia and North Korea, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, signed the day before the so-called “Strategic Partnership Agreement,” the new road map for their bilateral relations that replaces previous diplomatic treaties, during the Kremlin president’s first visit to Pyongyang in 24 years.

Mutual military assistance in the face of an eventual attack is the most outstanding novelty of the document, with which Putin and Kim send a warning to the United States and its Asian allies – insisting that they abide by international law – and also redraw regional alliances under the watchful eye of Beijing.

“The pact means a renewal of the Cold War security guarantees considered deceased in 1990, when South Korea and Russia normalized relations,” said the American Victor Cha, former National Security Adser of the White House, through his account in X.

Cha, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, also believes that the agreement will mean “an escalation in military cooperation,” including more supply of North Korean munitions and ballistic missiles for the war in Ukraine, and “a possible proliferation of the shipment of Russian advanced technology to North Korea.”

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In addition to the potential impact on the conflict in Ukraine through the shipment of weapons that Washington, Seoul and other Western countries have been denouncing, the United States and its allies will now have to deal with formalized security ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Many analysts consider the mutual defense assistance clause precisely as a response to the largest military rapprochement between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo in recent years, including the collaboration of Japan and South Korea with NATO, and believe that it will also have the effect of pushing these three partners and other related countries to shield themselves even more against the Russian-North Korean axis.

“I think this will serve as a pretext to formalize the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral security relationship in the context of next month’s NATO summit in Washington,” says Cha.

Other experts highlight that the pact signed by Putin and Kim highlights the weaknesses that both countries face under the extensive regime of sanctions that weighs on them, and question how far military assistance could go in the event of conflict.

“There is no credible mechanism or political will to fight for each other or to develop a joint military strategy,” Patrick Cronin, director of Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, said in statements to the South Korean agency Yonhap.

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“Yes, there is a mute desire to show solidarity in opposition to a world order led by the United States,” Cronin said.

Experts point to the possible influence of Beijing when it comes to seeing the true course of the new pact between Russia and North Korea, traditional Chinese allies and increasingly dependent on the Asian giant.

“It is likely that China is nervous. Pyongyang is prioritizing Moscow over Beijing because Russia seems willing to offer Kim more than China gives her,” says Sydney Seiler, a former U.S. intelligence analyst and currently a CSIS researcher.

Cha, for his part, points out the possibility of an upcoming summit between Xi Jinping and Kim “to balance and align positions,” and also recalls that the Chinese president held his last meeting with the North Korean dictator in June 2019, months after the latter’s failed summit with former US President Donald Trump.

Xi, who also faces increasing pressure from the West for his support for Moscow during the invasion of Ukraine, received Putin in Beijing in May at a summit in which they claimed to open “a new era” of their relations, and according to some information, asked the Russian leader not to travel to Pyongyang immediately after his passage through China.

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Beijing for the moment has limited itself to pointing out that Moscow and Pyongyang “have the legitimate need for exchanges, cooperation and development of their relations as close and friendly neighbors,” according to Chinese Chancellor Lin Jian’s spokesman the day before.

 

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International

Indigenous candidate Leonidas Iza predicts a new social explosion if there is no change in Ecuador

The presidential candidate of Ecuador for the indigenous movement, Leonidas Iza, who was part of the wave of protests of 2019 and who led that of 2022, reveals himself as an “anti-system” politician in the face of “a corrupt system” that he intends to reformulate to relieve the impoverished, because he predicts a new social explosion if there is no change in the Government to meet popular demands.

Iza, 42, is the candidate of Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie) that he himself presides over, and with which he was at the forefront of the 2022 wave of protests against the government of conservative President Guillermo Lasso, where he was arrested and even labeled a “terrorist.”

“I am one of those who has never lost the ability to be outraged when governments have had policies against their own citizens,” Iza, a native of the Andean province of Cotopaxi, said in an interview with EFE.

“I am not against the private sector, I am against those who do not pay taxes and those who come to the Government only to defend their companies,” said the candidate in reference to the last two presidents (Lasso and Daniel Noboa).

“We fight for social justice, not to be violent. It is a reaction to the injustice to which we have been subjected,” he said.

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For Iza, who represents the anti-extractivist left of Ecuador, the country has “a corrupt system, a health system that does not work, a deficient and unfair economic system, and public services that are not helping citizens.”

“And that’s what we want to change. We won’t be able to do it overnight, but the State can give relief to the people,” the candidate said.

To do this, it proposes to fight against tax evasion, which amounts to about 7.5 billion dollars a year, and also against corruption, which is estimated at about 3 billion dollars per year, to balance public accounts without having to follow the current credit program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that asks to cut public spending and raise taxes.

He also aimed to increase agricultural productivity, as well as boost tourism to go from 1 to 3 million visitors a year, and anticipated that he will regulate small and artisanal mining to avoid illegal mining but will not allow large-scale mining because it considers that it can contaminate the country’s large river basins.

Iza anticipated that he will not pay the external debt as long as there are “guaguas (children, in Kichwa) who have no education and are dying of hunger, and colleagues who are dying for lack of health.”

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“We will tell the IMF and the other multilaterals that we are going to pay, but first we are going to solve the structural problem we have at the moment: education, health and minimum conditions for security,” he warned.

In that sense, Iza pointed out that “the strength of a popular reaction in the streets is accumulating” that must be resolved by whoever is elected. “Knowing my country, which has been on the streets all its life, there will be a popular reaction if (the discomfort) is not resolved in the following months,” he reiterated.

“The option that understands the people is us, and not the sectors that have always been in the Government,” said Iza, who avoided pointing out whether that reaction will reach the dimensions of the strong protests of 2019 and 2022, both led by the indigenous movement.

In this electoral campaign, Iza has left his distinctive Andean red poncho to put on the bulletproof vest in the face of the persistent wave of violence of organized crime that the country is experiencing, because he warned that the “war” that Noboa declared to the criminal gangs has not worked because its leaders are still free.

Faced with this, he promised “a hard hand for all” and recalled that “state institutions must suffocate everyone (criminals)”.

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The candidate also advocated deepening international cooperation: “there must be a responsibility of all countries (producers, consumers and drug transit), especially in the region (of Latin America)”.

Asked if Ecuadorian society is ready to have an indigenous president of rural origin, Iza sees himself with popular support to face “the most reactionary sectors that have support in racism and stigmatization.”

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International

Deaths in a hotel fire in a ski resort in Turkey rise to 69

The fire that occurred this morning in a 12-story hotel in a ski resort in northwestern Turkey claimed at least 69 deaths, in addition to causing fifty injuries, according to the latest assessment of the country’s authorities.

The fire originated around 3.30 a.m. local time (0.30 GMT) in a hotel, built entirely of wood, in the Kartalkaya ski center, halfway between Istanbul and Ankara, with almost full occupancy.

The flames were extinguished after about ten hours of firefighters’ work and the authorities found the death of 66 people, in addition to rescuing 51 injured, compared to the 10 dead and 32 injured initially estimated.

The hotel, with 161 rooms, had an occupancy close to 90%, because these days are the winter school holidays in Turkey, says the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet.

The wooden construction and the location of the hotel at the foot of a ski slope, which only allows vehicle access from the front facade, made the intervention of firefighters difficult, the Turkish newspaper explained.

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According to the television network NTV, about 300 people, including employees, were in the hotel at the time of the fire, the causes of which are still unknown.

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Hamas calls for counterattack on Israeli soldiers during their incursion in the West Bank

The Islamist organization Hamas urged the Palestinians on Tuesday to intensify and support their militiamen in the clashes against the Israeli Army during the military incursion that began today in Yenin, in the north of the occupied West Bank.

“We call on the masses of our people in the West Bank and their revolutionary youth to mobilize and intensify the clashes against the (Israeli) occupation army at all points, and to work to thwart the extensive Zionist aggression against the city of Yenin.”

“This military operation launched by the occupation in Yenin will fail, as did all its previous military operations against our brave people and their tenacious resistance,” the Palestinian group said.

Since the beginning of the operation, nicknamed by the Army “Iron Wall”, at least seven Palestinians have died in Yenin and another 35 have been injured, according to data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

Hamas accused the forces of the Palestinian National Authority (ANP), President Mahmoud Abbas’ ruling party in the West Bank, of having left Yenin to allow the operation of Israeli troops, instead of defending the Palestinians.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended on Tuesday that the last assault launched by his forces against Yenin, in the north of the occupied West Bank, seeks to “eradicate terrorism.”

“This is another step towards the objective we have set ourselves: to strengthen security in Judea and Samaria (West Bank),” according to a statement released by its Office.

“We are acting systematically and decisively against the Iranian axis wherever it sends its weapons: in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Judea and Samaria (West Bank),” concludes the Israeli president’s note.

The rail comes shortly after the start of the ceasefire in Gaza, which includes a weekly exchange of hostages in the Strip for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

Following the release of the prisoners, the Army increased its presence in this occupied territory with seven companies, claiming to strengthen its “anti-terrorist efforts.”

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The images recorded in Yenin show dozens of Army vehicles accessing the local refugee camp, which has also been bombed by Israeli aviation.

The incursions and attacks of Israeli forces in Yenin, considered a bastion of Islamist-like militias, were already constant but they worsened after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023.

However, since mid-December it has been the security forces of the Palestinian National Authority (ANP), which governs small parts of the West Bank, that have led an offensive in this population, which until last Friday triggered armed fighting against the militiamen.

This exchange of fire has caused at least 15 people dead on both sides, including two minors.

The occupied West Bank is experiencing its greatest spiral of violence since the Second Intifada (2000-05), and in 2024 at least 491 Palestinians have died in the territory by Israeli fire, most of them militiamen from refugee camps, but also civilians, including at least 75 minors, according to EFE’s count.

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So far this year, at least 24 Palestinians have already died in Israeli attacks, five of them minors.

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