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The grand coalition takes shape in the face of the foreseeable lack of a majority of the far right

The foreseeable lack of an absolute majority of the far right in the French elections next Sunday makes a “grand coalition” of very opposite parties increasingly take shape as the only way to govern the country.

Two polls released on Thursday afternoon coincide with another published yesterday in the sense that the far-right National Association (RN) would not achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

A first Ifop poll attributes to the far right 210-240 seats, far from the absolute majority of 289.

In second place will be the New Left Popular Front (NFP), with 170-200 deputies, while the current majority of President Emmanuel Macron will fall to the third position, with 95-125 seats.

The conservative LR would have 25-45, but a hypothetical sum with the ultra-right (to date very unlikely) would still not result in a majority. Independent candidates or candidates from small regionalist formations will take between 15 and 27 seats.

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The poll predicts a very high participation (68%) with very motivated voters, since 92% say they are already sure of their voting option.

Another OpinionWay poll points out that the RN would get 205-230 deputies, for 145-175 for the left and 130-162 for the macronist bloc. The conservatives would have 38 to 50.

Both studies coincide, in essence, with another published on Wednesday by Harris Interactive and which assigned the RN between 190 and 220 deputies, even further from the majority.

If those results are confirmed within three days on Sunday’s return, France’s only governance option would go through what is defined as “republican front” or “grand coalition” that brings together all parties except the far right.

However, the strong ideological and programmatic differences in a political arc that goes from the conservative right to the communists and the rebellious left of La Francia Insumisa have meant that for now the parties and leaders have not wanted to define how to put that idea into practice.

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For now, socialists, macronists, ecologists, communists, ‘submissos’ and conservatives prefer to focus on their campaigns to, if necessary, have the best possible cards in the face of an eventual negotiation.

The far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who warned today that the only options now are “the mud or an absolute majority of the RN,” insists on rejecting that idea.

Le Pen denounced again that a front against his party “has the sole objective of preventing the National Association from having an absolute majority.”

Meanwhile, the French football star, Kylian Mbappé, captain of the national team, again asked from the German European Championship for a national mobilization against the far right to “not leave the country in the hands of those people.”

“More than ever we must go to vote. There is a real urgency. We can’t leave our country in the hands of those people. It’s really urgent. I think we have seen the results, it is catastrophic and we really hope that it goes well and that people mobilize,” said the star striker of Real Madrid and the French national team at a press conference.

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It is not the first time that Mbappé, with a Cameroonian father and a French mother of Algerian origin, has entered the campaign since the concentration of ‘les Bleus’, just as other players of the national team have done.

Meanwhile, the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, announced that a total of 30,000 police and gendarmes will be deployed on Sunday to avoid possible unrest or violent protests after the disclosure of the results.

The announcement comes after there have been a multiplication of cases of physical assaults on members of parties that were campaigning in recent days.

The most striking case has been that of the Government spokeswoman, Prisca Thevenot, whose group was attacked while sticking posters on Wednesday afternoon by some young people.

A Macronist militant suffered a fractured jaw and deputy Virginie Lanlo suffered a slight injury to one arm because of the aggression, which occurred in Meudon, on the southern outskirts of Paris.

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The police arrived quickly and arrested three minors between the ages of 16 and 17 and a 20-year-old adult with a police record.

In recent days, the high tension of the campaign for the increase in calls to oppose the far right and the increase in racist or violent messages by some voices of the extreme right has resulted in a level of virulence much higher than that of other elections.

However, no episode has been really serious. Some blows or damage to cars have so far been the most serious thing that has happened, although several leaders and media have warned about the high level of tension in society.

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International

Pope Francis meets former Gaza hostages

Pope Francis met on Thursday at the Vatican with 16 Israelis who had been held hostage in Gaza for months by the Islamist group Hamas, according to the official Vatican news website.

The group consisted of ten women, four men, and two children, as reported by the same source. Several of the former hostages showed the Argentine pontiff banners or photos of their loved ones who remain in captivity.

Francis had previously met with the families of hostages in April this year and November 2023, but this was the first time he had met with individuals who had personally endured captivity.

Since the conflict between Israel and Hamas began, the pope has repeatedly called for the immediate release of Israeli hostages, while also condemning the suffering of the Palestinian population.

The war erupted on October 7, 2023, when Islamist militants attacked southern Israel, killing 1,206 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures that include hostages who died in captivity.

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Of the kidnapped, 97 are still being held in Gaza, but the Israeli military estimates that 34 of them have died.

The military offensive launched by Israel in response has killed at least 43,736 people in the Gaza Strip, mostly civilians, according to data from the Ministry of Health in the Hamas-governed territory.

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International

Israeli airstrikes on Damascus kill 15 and injure 16, including women and children

Israeli forces carried out airstrikes on residential buildings in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and its surroundings on Thursday, resulting in at least 15 deaths and 16 injuries, according to Syria’s Ministry of Defense and state television.

The ministry stated that around 3:20 p.m. local time (12:20 GMT), the Israeli military launched an aerial attack from the direction of the occupied Golan Heights, targeting several residential buildings in the Mazzeh neighborhood in western Damascus and the Qudsaya suburb to the northwest of the capital.

The airstrikes “resulted in the death of 15 people and injuries to 16 others, including women and children,” based on initial estimates, in addition to significant damage to private property and civilian buildings, the ministry added.

Meanwhile, state television reported Israeli airstrikes on three buildings in Mazzeh and another on a building in an educational complex located in a residential area of Qudsaya.

Following the strikes, loud explosions were heard throughout the city, and thick plumes of smoke could be seen rising from the targeted locations. Ambulances and emergency services rushed to the scene to attend to the victims.

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International

Drug trafficker dies after boat collision with Guardia Civil Vessel in Sanlúca

Three people were on the boat that collided with a Guardia Civil vessel around midnight at the mouth of the Guadalquivir River in Sanlúcar de Barrameda, near the Andalusian city of Cádiz, a spokesperson for the Civil Guard reported.

Two officers sustained “contusions,” the spokesperson explained.

The drug traffickers managed to bring the boat to shore, where one of them was “abandoned” severely injured. The other two fled.

The Civil Guard officers attempted to resuscitate the victim before transporting him to Sanlúcar de Barrameda, but he ultimately died early in the morning.

The other two suspects took advantage of the officers’ absence while they were taking the victim and returned to set their boat on fire.

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The collision occurred very close to the site of another accident on September 1, where a drug trafficker died following a Guardia Civil pursuit.

The suspects’ boat traveled “400 meters” before crashing head-on and “at full speed” into the riverbank, where a hundred bundles of hashish were found.

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