By showing for the first time its facilities to manufacture fuel for nuclear bombs this Friday, North Korea is positioned to acquire prominence in the campaign for the presidential elections in the United States while the fear increases that it will soon carry out a large-scale weapons test.

It is a forceful gesture on the part of the regime of Kim Jong-un, which these days visited a plant full of cascades of uranium centrifuges – apparently more advanced than initially estimated by the experts – and ordered to increase the number of these devices “to exponentially increase the number of nuclear weapons.”

These are some keys to try to decipher this calculated message that Pyongyang – which since 2019 has refused to resume the dialogue on disarmament – has decided to issue with just over seven weeks to go for the Americans to elect a new president.

A gloomy uranium enrichment program

Few details are known about how, where and how much uranium is capable of enriching North Korea, as well as the level of concentration of isotopes of the resulting material (the higher the concentration of uranium-235, the more fligible the fuel of the pump).

Until now, North Korea had only shown in 2010 some facilities at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center (about 100 kilometers north of Pyongyang) to the American scientist Siegfried Hecker, who estimated that the place housed about 2,000 gas centrifuges – a more outdated model than the one shown on Friday – to produce low-enrichment uranium.

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Intelligence services and analysts assume that the regime has at least another processing center in Kangson, on the outskirts of the North Korean capital.

It is this Kangson enclosure that is believed to have been shown by the North Korean media (which do not mention the location of the plant), since they claim that Kim Jong-un visited the surface under construction for new centrifuges, something that agrees with a recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that warns that an annex is being built in this complex located southwest of Pyongyang.

The chosen moment

The vast majority of experts believe that North Korea has chosen to show its centrifuges a few weeks before the US elections to regain prominence at a time when its weapons programs did not come to light even once in this week’s debate between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, as they did not do in June between Trump and Joe Biden.

Although North Korea is not an issue that currently conditions the vote of the Americans, the message that Pyongyang has sent today is that it will be an issue that will require attention from those who inherit the presidency from Biden.

“For Trump the message is ‘after the fiasco of (the summit of) Hanoi our atomic program goes ahead. If you want to stop it, you will have to sit down and negotiate.’ And for Harris it’s a bit the same; ‘Biden’s policy has failed, you’ll see if you want to sit down and negotiate,’” Ramón Pacheco Pardo, director of the chair on politics on the Korean peninsula at the Free University of Brussels, explains to EFE.

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Pacheco Pardo is one of those who believe that Pyongyang is willing to resume dialogue to lower sanctions or achieve a security agreement, but in terms different from those of 2019 in Hanoi, since today’s announcement endorses what Pyongyang has been saying in recent years: that there is no longer any possibility of him abandoning nuclear weapons.

What to expect in the coming weeks

Seoul and Washington and different experts have warned in recent weeks about the possibility of Pyongyang choosing to carry out just – before or after the presidential elections in the US – important weapons of mass destruction tests to get the attention of the new tenant of the White House.

It could be the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), possibly equipped with a multiple and independent re-entry vehicle (like the one tested in June), to show once again that North Korea can theoretically reach the US. This possibility charges integers after Pyongyang showed a new and impressive 12-axle mobile erector shuttle (TEL) last week.

A nuclear test now seems a little more unlikely, not only because it is something that can always anger China and Russia (which support the lifting of sanctions on Pyongyang), but because the damage caused by the monsoon in the accesses to the remote test center of Punggye-ri (northeast of the country) and recently detected by the satellites will require important repairs in the coming weeks.

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