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Harris vs Trump: the battle for the young male vote and the debate on masculinity

The US elections could be decided in an unexpected struggle to attract the male voter of Generation Z, where Donald Trump has eroded Democratic domination over young people while Kamala Harris offers a new model of masculinity, closer to empathy and equality.

The former Republican president (2017-2021) courts those voters by appearing in popular podcasts among Generation Z (born from 1997), while the Democratic vice president tries to position herself as a strong leader, relying on a new model of masculinity championed by her running mate, the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz.

This battle reveals a deeper debate between the different conceptions of masculinity that prevail in the Democratic and Republican parties and how they resonate among young people.

Trump’s hypermasculinity

Trump’s campaign embraces a kind of hypermasculinity that reached its maximum expression at the republican convention in Milwaukee, where the former fighter Hulk Hogan tore off his shirt live and the former president himself went on stage to the rhythm of ‘It’s a Man’s Man’s Man’s World’ by James Brown.

At every rally, Trump projects the image of a tough leader. When in July in Pennsylvania a man tried to kill him, he got up after a few minutes crouched and, with a bloody face, raised his fist in front of the American flag, shouting “Fight, fight, fight!”.

Its objective, University of Michigan professor Aaron Kall explains to EFE, is to seduce young voters without university studies and who feel less affinity with democratic ideas than previous generations.

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Therefore, Trump has chosen as a running mate the Ohio senator, J.D. Vance, the first member of the ‘millennial’ generation (born between 1981 and 1996) to be part of the commitment of a great party for the White House.

However, in their eagerness to attract the male electorate, both are pushing women away, enthusiastic about the possibility of a woman arriving at the White House for the first time.

For years, Trump has been accused of abuse by dozens of women and this same year a jury found him guilty of abusing columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996. Nor do some comments that Vance made in 2021, when he referred to women without children as “lady spinsters with cats” help him either.

Harris’ proposal: a new masculinity

Harris is doing everything possible to mobilize the female vote with the promise of protecting the right to abortion, legal for half a century until in June 2022 the Supreme Court annulled the ‘Roe vs Wade’ ruling.

In addition, to counter that narrative of Trump’s “strong man”, Harris’ campaign has presented its own masculinity alternative: men capable of leading with empathy and comfortable in the background next to a powerful woman.

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This image is embodied by the second gentleman Doug Emhoff, who left his job as a lawyer when Harris became vice president, and especially Walz, who represents that renewed masculinity, as Georgetown professor Michael Cornfield explains to EFE.

Nicknamed “trainer Walz” for his experience in American football, Walz has 24 years of service in the National Guard and projects the image of a simple man from the crucial Midwest, appearing in rallies with a flannel shirt and mountain boots.

In his election debut with Harris, on August 6, Walz greeted the vice president by putting her palms together at chest height, showing a deference that enhanced Harris’ aura of leadership.

“Walz is the gateway for those men who feel uncomfortable accepting the possibility that a woman could be a commander-in-chief. It shows that real men can take a back seat with strong and capable women,” Cornfield explains.

The biggest gender gap in history

According to Lanae Erickson, former Barack Obama’s advisor (2009-2017), these differences between the candidates anticipate that in the November 5 elections there will be the largest “gender gap” in the recent history of the United States, that is, the largest difference ever recorded between the percentage of women and men who vote for one or another applicant.

“There is unprecedented enthusiasm for Harris among women. On the other hand, men, especially young people who vote for the first time, are turning to Trump,” says Erickson.

A recent survey by ABC and Ipsos reveals that the gender gap could reach 18 points, surpassing 12 points in 2020 and 11 in 2016.

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Specifically, Harris is 13-point advantage of Trump among women, while Trump surpasses Harris by 5 points among men, an unprecedented phenomenon in American politics.

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International

Trump gains ground over Harris and the elections are emerging as the closest of the century

The Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump, has gained ground in the polls of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the selections of November 5 are emerging as the closest of the last century in the United States.

Harris’ candidacy, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially aroused great enthusiasm that was transferred to the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage when there are 16 days left until the elections.

According to the latest forecast of the FiveThiryEight portal based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump achieves a slight advantage over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 elections.

Despite the fact that the Democrat leads the intention to vote at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states grant a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.

Two weeks ago, the forecast of the same portal gave Harris a 58% chance to defeat Trump.

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The difference between Harris and Trump

Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the chances of victory of each of the two candidates are practically equivalent to throwing a coin into the air.

The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.

In addition, at the national level, the vice president only takes two points ahead of the former president, a narrower difference than the margin between Biden and Trump on any of the days of the 2020 campaign.

After those elections, the Republican refused to accept his defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in court.

In 2000, the election result was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to Republican George W. Busch on the Democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.

But according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, to find elections as close as what the polls draw, we have to go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes beat the Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.

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Every vote counts

In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and the two candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote has already begun with a high turnout.

The rhetoric and the crossfire between the two has also intensified with attacks and insults.

Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranted.”

The vice president has decided to raise the tone against Trump in an attempt to revitalize her campaign, to which former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have also joined, and former first lady Michelle Obama to give her a new impetus.

The Republican is this Sunday in Pennsylvania, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having invented that he worked for that fast food chain as a young man.

For her part, the Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where tomorrow she will campaign with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congressman facing Trump.

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International

The president of Brazil cancels his trip to Russia due to a domestic accident

The president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, canceled this Sunday for “medical guidance” his trip to Russia to attend the BRICS leadership after suffering a “domestic accident” in which he hit his head, government and hospital sources reported.

The Brazilian Presidency said in a statement that it was decided to cancel the trip due to a “temporary impediment for long-term flights,” but that Lula will participate by videoconference in the meeting, which is held between October 22 and 24 in the Russian city of Kazan.

The president, who is 78 years old, was injured on Saturday on the back of his head, which led him to be admitted to the Sírio-Libanês Hospital in Brasilia, according to a medical report that does not go into more details.

Despite not going to the summit, the Government clarified that Lula will comply next week with a “normal” work schedule in the capital.

The meeting in Kazan, hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is scheduled to receive more than 30 heads of state and government.

The BRICS, whose original members were Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, are in full expansion, after including four other countries this year: Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia.

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During the meeting, the leaders of the member countries must define what will be the criteria for other nations to be part of the bloc as partners.

Brazil wants two of the criteria to be, for example, not supporting economic sanctions applied without authorization from the UN and defending the reform of the Security Council, according to diplomatic sources in the country.

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International

Thousands of Georgians march in Tbilisi in favor of the country’s European future

Thousands of Georgians marched today in Tbilisi in favor of the European future of the country six days before parliamentary elections, which President Salomé Zurabishvili sees as an election between the EU and Russia.

Under the slogan “Georgia chooses the EU” the supporters of rapprochement with Europe met in five points of the capital from where they marched in a column towards the Plaza de la Libertad, where they sang the anthems of the Caucasian country and the EU.

The action, called by non-governmental organizations and opposition parties, was also attended by the Georgian president.

From the largest opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), they warned the Government that the people “will not give up their European future.”

European future

“This action is the last warning to the honorary president of the ruling Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, that the Georgian people will not give up their European future,” said MNU President Tinatin Bokuchava.

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Meanwhile, Zurabishvili asked the attendees to demonstrate the will to “return to the country freedom, independence and a European future.”

Participants in the demonstration said that it is a “rehearsal of the electoral victory of the opposition,” while the Georgian Dream, which has ruled Georgia since 2012, assures that it will obtain about 60 percent of the support, after which it will re-establish relations with the West.

Relations with the Kremlin

The Caucasian country has significantly improved its relations with the Kremlin coinciding with the war in Ukraine, which has dramatically worsened its ties with the United States and the European Union.

After the Georgian Parliament passed the Foreign Influence Transparency Act in May of this year, which the Georgian opposition considers similar to the one approved in Russia to suppress civil society, the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom froze cooperation programs with Georgia.

In addition, Brussels and Washington also criticized the Georgian Parliament last September for approving another document that prohibits, as in Russia, information regarding homosexuality.

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