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Keys to the political crisis in Germany: What will happen after the breakup of the coalition government?

The breakup of the coalition government in Germany opens the way to early elections once the head of government, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, does not overcome the motion of confidence scheduled for January 15, as expected.

These are the keys to the path established and detailed in the German Basic Law towards early elections, which will probably take place in the spring if the date of the motion of confidence is not advanced, as the opposition has already demanded.

– In accordance with article 68 of the Basic Law, the chancellor, as announced on Wednesday, will request a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on January 15, with the expectation that the Lower House will not give it to him and thus early elections will be called that the social democrat Scholz hopes will be favorable to him.

– The chancellor may then ask the president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dissolve the Bundestag and will have a maximum period of 21 days to do so.

Once Parliament is dissolved, new elections must be held within a maximum period of 60 days. In this case at the end of March or beginning of April.

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A government in office

– After the dissolution of the Bundestag, the chancellor and his ministers will continue to hold their respective positions in office.

The three portfolios occupied by the Liberals that are empty after the dismissal of the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, and the departure by his own decision of those of Justice, Marco Buschmann, and Education, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, could be assumed by other ministers, although the chancellor can propose different successors.

The fourth portfolio occupied by the liberals, that of Transport and Digital Affairs, will continue at the personal request of Scholz in the hands of Wolfgang Wissing, who announced that he is leaving his party so that his decision does not involve a burden.

– However, with the dissolution of the Bundestag and the call for new elections, political activity will be paralyzed, since the parties will immediately switch to campaign mode. This could be relevant to the 2025 federal budget if it is not approved, which is most likely.

Then the so-called provisional budgetary management would come into force and only from January it will be possible to incur expenses for which there is a legal obligation.

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The vote of confidence

– In the history of the Federal Republic, only four chancellors submitted to a vote of confidence, although only two of them sought, as the Basic Law intends with this option, to obtain the vote of confidence, while three others pursued precisely the opposite: not achieving a majority.

In 1982, Social Democratic Chancellor Helmut Schmidt submitted to a vote of confidence to calm a coalition crisis, although that same year he lost a motion of censure. In 2001, Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder used the vote of confidence to secure the approval of the controversial deployment of the Bundeswehr – the armed forces – in Afghanistan.

On three occasions, however, the vote of confidence was a maneuver to pave the way for early elections: in 1972, by Social Democratic Chancellor Willi Brandt; in 1982 by Conservative Chancellor Helmut Kohl; and in 2005 by Schröder.

The first two managed to strengthen their coalitions with this maneuver, but in the case of Schröder, his party lost the elections in favor of the conservatives, who took over the government with Angela Merkel.

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Elon Musk’s comments on UK abuse scandal spark government response

A prominent British politician addressed Elon Musk’s recent criticism on Friday regarding the government’s handling of a historic child abuse scandal.

In recent days, Musk shared and reacted to posts on his social media platform X, condemning the UK government’s decision to reject a public inquiry into the child abuse scandal in Oldham, a town in northern England.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting dismissed Musk’s comments as “wrong and certainly misinformed” but extended an invitation to the tech mogul to collaborate with the government in combating child sexual exploitation.

The UK government argued that Oldham should follow the example of other cities by commissioning its own investigation into historical abuse. A 2022 report on safeguarding measures in Oldham between 2011 and 2014 highlighted failures by local agencies to protect children but found no evidence of a cover-up. The report noted “legitimate concerns” about far-right groups exploiting the high-profile convictions of predominantly Pakistani offenders across the country.

Musk has also criticized UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, accusing him of failing to bring justice to what many describe as “grooming gangs” during his tenure as Director of Public Prosecutions from 2008 to 2013. On Friday, Musk referred to the scandals as a “massive crime against humanity.”

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Speaking to ITV News, Streeting emphasized the government’s commitment to tackling child sexual exploitation. He welcomed Musk’s potential involvement, stating, “Some of the criticisms Elon Musk has made, I think, are wrong and certainly misinformed. But we are ready to work with him. With his social network, he has a significant role to play in helping the UK and other countries address this serious issue. If he wants to roll up his sleeves and work with us, we’d gladly welcome him.”

Musk’s apparent interest in UK politics has grown since the Labour Party’s landslide victory in the July 2024 elections, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

 

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International

Von der Leyen’s health forces two-week break amid severe pneumonia

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is battling “severe pneumonia” and has canceled her engagements for the next two weeks, her office announced on Friday.

Spokesperson Stefan De Keersmaeker confirmed that von der Leyen’s schedule has been cleared of meetings in Lisbon and Poland, the latter of which recently assumed the rotating presidency of the 27-nation European Union.

“She is dealing with severe pneumonia,” De Keersmaeker stated in a brief communiqué, providing no further details about her condition or how she contracted the illness.

The 66-year-old recently began her second five-year term leading the EU’s powerful executive branch.

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International

Algerian influencer detained in France for alleged calls to attack

French police detained an Algerian social media influencer in the port city of Brest on Friday, accused of urging his followers to carry out attacks in France, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau announced.

The arrest comes as France prepares to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the deadly January 2015 attacks in Paris targeting the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo and a kosher supermarket.

On January 7, 2015, two French-born Al-Qaeda extremists stormed the Charlie Hebdo newsroom, killing 12 people, including the editor-in-chief, cartoonists, and a police officer nearby. In the following days, an associate aligned with ISIS killed a police officer and later attacked a kosher supermarket in eastern Paris, murdering four hostages. All three attackers were killed in police shootouts.

Retailleau stated on social media platform X that the detained influencer, who used the alias “Zazouyoussef,” had “called on his community to commit attacks in France.”

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