Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Italian tourist dies after jet ski collision in Colombian caribbean waters
The Colombian Navy recovered the lifeless body of an Italian national on Tuesday who had gone missing in the waters of Colombia’s Caribbean on Monday afternoon after a suspected maritime incident.
Nicholas Cudini, 26, was riding a jet ski near Cholón Island, located in Cartagena, when he collided with another artisanal vessel operating in the area. The collision reportedly caused him to fall off the jet ski, according to information gathered by the Colombian Navy.
“Apparently, the person accompanying the foreigner noticed that his companion did not resurface, so he called for help from other nearby boaters, who alerted authorities to the emergency,” stated the Navy in a press release.
According to Frigate Captain Juan Felipe Portilla, commander of the Cartagena Coast Guard Station, Cudini was driving the jet ski when the incident occurred.
The search for Cudini lasted 22 hours, even continuing overnight, with specialized divers and sailors from the Caribbean Naval Force combing the area where he was last seen.
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The body was recovered and later transported to a dock in Cartagena for an autopsy, conducted by judicial police.
Liga de Quito expresses concern over former player’s alleged kidnapping in Esmeraldas
Ecuador’s police reported on Tuesday that they are investigating the involuntary disappearance of player Pedro Pablo Perlaza.
Meanwhile, the popular club Liga de Quito, where he played four years ago, expressed concern about what it referred to as the news of the athlete’s kidnapping.
On its X account (formerly known as Twitter), the police stated that “due to the alleged involuntary disappearance” of Perlaza and Juan M. in the city of Esmeraldas, and following the formal complaint filed by their families, authorities immediately began “investigative and operational work around the incident.”
The Anti-Kidnapping Unit of the Police is handling the investigation, according to the statement.
Last weekend, 33-year-old Perlaza had finished the Ecuadorian first-division season with the Delfín club and traveled to the city of Esmeraldas, located 182 kilometers northwest of the capital. His whereabouts have been unknown since Sunday. He had been part of Delfín’s 2019 Ecuadorian Championship-winning team.
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Liga de Quito, in a statement on X, expressed its “deep concern and solidarity over the news of the kidnapping of our former player” and extended its solidarity to the athlete’s family and friends. Perlaza played for Liga de Quito in 2020 and the team is set to play the first of two championship matches this weekend.
Esmeraldas province, whose capital bears the same name, is considered one of the regions where criminal groups have extended their control, engaging in activities such as extortion and kidnapping. Other provinces facing similar situations include Guayas and Manabí.
Since 2021, Ecuador has been experiencing a spiral of criminal violence driven by local groups linked to drug cartels from Colombia and Mexico, seeking to control trafficking routes and territories. One of the signs of conflict between local gangs is the frequent massacres in the country’s prisons.
Over 1,500 migrants face blockade by mexican authorities in Chiapas
A caravan of over 1,500 migrants that set out this week from Mexico’s southern border is facing a blockade by Mexican authorities, who are preventing them from leaving the state of Chiapas, which borders Central America.
Amid pressures from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for Mexico to control the flow of migration, the group departed at 5:00 a.m. (11:00 GMT) from the municipality of Huixtla, moving slowly, with some migrants on bicycles and tricycles, flanked by the National Guard and municipal police.
The undocumented migrants, mostly from Venezuela, told EFE that officials from the National Institute of Migration (INM) have been monitoring their movements since their arrival in Huixtla, following them along the road. On Tuesday, the authorities attempted to detain a family, but the migrants prevented it.
The migrants are calling for understanding from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who last week assured Trump in a phone call that caravans “no longer reach” the U.S. border. Meanwhile, Trump has promised to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican products if the country fails to stop the “invasion” of migrants and drugs.
“President Sheinbaum should support us in reaching Mexico City, where there are more job opportunities, so we can wait for our ‘CBP One’ appointment (to apply for asylum in the U.S.) peacefully, because other states are more dangerous,” explained Venezuelan Genaro Cárdenas.
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Cárdenas, who is traveling by bicycle with a group of fellow Venezuelans, remains hopeful of reaching their destination despite the obstacles and the pressure from immigration officials to convince them to return to the southern border.
“We fear that we will be disbanded and sent back to Tapachula, but we will continue forward,” Cárdenas warned.
