Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Thirteen cuban military members missing after explosion at arms warehouse
Thirteen members of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) have been reported “missing” following an explosion at an arms and ammunition warehouse in the eastern part of the island, the military institution announced.
“As a result of the explosions at an arms and ammunition warehouse in the Melones community… in the province of Holguín, 730 km east of Havana,” two officers, two non-commissioned officers, and nine soldiers are reported as “missing,” according to a statement from the Ministry of the Armed Forces released by Cuban state television.
The statement specified that “investigations are still ongoing at the site,” which led to the evacuation of more than 1,200 residents from areas near the warehouse of a military unit where “aged ammunition was being classified.”
Neither the official press nor Cuban state television have provided images of the explosions at the military unit, but independent media outlets published photos online showing a massive column of smoke and police officers deployed in the streets of the Melones community.
Trump considers declaring National Economic Emergency to justify universal tariffs
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may be considering declaring a national economic emergency in order to justify implementing a package of universal tariffs on both allied and adversary countries, according to CNN.
The proclamation of these measures would grant the incoming U.S. president the freedom to create a new tariff program using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
This move would give the president the authority to manage imports during a national emergency.
According to the report, Trump has a penchant for this law as it provides broad jurisdiction on how tariffs are implemented without strict requirements to prove they are necessary for national security reasons.
Venezuelan opposition candidate Enrique Márquez detained ahead of Maduro’s inauguration
Enrique Márquez, a minority opposition candidate in Venezuela’s July 28 elections, was “arbitrarily detained,” denounced a political coalition he is part of and his wife, who described the action as “kidnapping.”
Since Tuesday night, there has been a wave of reports of detentions, with at least a dozen arrests just over 48 hours before President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration for a third six-year term, following a controversial reelection.
“We inform that yesterday, 07.01.25, Enrique Márquez was arbitrarily detained,” stated the Popular Democratic Front (FDP).
“He was kidnapped by paramilitary groups who, using force as their law, aim to silence and intimidate those of us who want a better country and have a different vision,” said his wife, Sonia Lugo de Márquez, on the leader’s X account.
