Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
A magnitude 6 earthquake shakes the province of Esmeraldas in Ecuador, bordering Colombia
A magnitude 6 earthquake was recorded this Friday in the coastal province of Esmeraldas, bordering Colombia, causing damage to several infrastructures and leaving, so far, 20 people injured.
According to the Geophysical Institute of the National Polytechnic School, the earthquake occurred at 06:44 local time (11:44 GMT) at 1.03 degrees south latitude and 79.69 degrees west longitude.
According to the source, the tremor occurred at a depth of 30 kilometers and 9.31 kilometers from Esmeraldas, capital of the homonymous province.
According to the National Secretariat of Risk Management (SNGR), the affected people had head injuries and bruises.
While the SNGR continues with the verification of affectations, it indicated that 80% of the electricity service and 80% of the telecommunications that were affected, are gradually restored.
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Among the affected public buildings are the ECU 911 due to a fall of masonry; the Vargas Torres University, which has cracks; the Los Militares building where the front collapsed and the Prefecture building, among others.
The SNGR reported that the earthquake was felt with strong intensity in seven municipalities of the province of Esmeraldas and moderately in the provinces of Guayas and Manabí, while mildly in Carchi, Cotopaxi, Imbabura, Los Ríos, Pichincha, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas and Tungurahua.
About twenty minutes after the earthquake in Esmeraldas, one of magnitude 4.1 was reported in the coastal province of Guayas, located in the southeast of the country, without damage or victims having been reported so far.
The President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, ordered the displacement of all his ministers to Esmeraldas, in order to coordinate actions after the magnitude 6 earthquake recorded this Friday.
“I have arranged for the immediate deployment of all ministers in the province of Esmeraldas to coordinate the installation of shelters, delivery of humanitarian aid kits and assistance in everything our people need,” Noboa wrote on his social network account X.
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The province of Esmeraldas was one of the most affected by the 7.8 magnitude earthquake recorded on April 16, 2016, which left more than 670 dead, thousands affected, as well as millions of material losses.
This earthquake also hit the province of Manabí, located, like Esmeraldas, on the coast of the Andean country, but also affected other areas and was felt strongly, even in the Ecuadorian capital.
Ecuador is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire or Belt, which concentrates some of the most important subduction areas (sinking of tectonic plates) in the world and is the scene of strong seismic activity.
In addition to Ecuador, the Horseshoe-shaped Belt comprises a large number of countries such as Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, the United States and Canada.
Preparations for Pope Francis’ funeral, in figures
The funeral of Pope Francis this Saturday, the first of a reigning pontiff for two decades, is an event that moves dizzying figures and will require the full mobilization of Italian authorities and volunteers.
These are some of the figures that draw what can be expected tomorrow for a historic day:
The Italian Ministry of the Interior has calculated that 200,000 faithful will attend the funeral of Francis. For the next conclave – with a date yet to be defined – and the election of the new pope, that figure amounts to 250,000.
The funeral procession that will move the remains of the late pope from St. Peter’s Vatican to the Basilica of Santa María la Mayor, where Francis arranged to be buried in a simple tomb.
3,000 volunteers will mobilize the Italian Civil Protection, responsible for the management of the preparations. There will be 55 health teams distributed throughout the funeral procession between San Pedro del Vaticano and the basilica de Santa María la Mayor, in addition to 11 advanced medical posts and 52 additional ambulances that will join the existing fleet.
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17 degrees and a radiant sun are expected at 10:00 (08.00 GMT) on Saturday, the start time of the funeral, although the thermometer could reach 24 degrees throughout the day.
The state group Ferrovie dello Stato makes 260,000 seats available to those who wish to approach Rome by train. Civil Protection also confirmed that 500 parking spaces for buses and coaches have been reserved for the same day in Rome and its surroundings.
130 international delegations have already confirmed their presence at the event, but it is expected that the final figure may rise to 170. Fifty will be headed by heads of state or government, including a dozen sovereigns.
120,000 arrivals planned in Rome on April 25 and 26, which will translate into about 320,000 overnight stays, according to figures from the Department of Tourism of the Italian capital, which warns that the estimates may be below even those that finally occur. 101,000 of those arrivals will take place in hotels and another 53,000 in “supplementary establishments”.
11,000 soldiers and members of the security forces, not counting the teams of the international delegations, who will ensure that the funeral is held without incident. Police, police officers and traffic officers will join at least 1,500 soldiers.
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5 anti-drone bazooas, capable of intercepting the radio frequencies with which these devices are operated, which will reinforce the decreed no-fly zone over the Roman sky.
“A dignified life” for migrants, the plea in Panama in memory of Pope Francis
Catholics who work with some of the 299 migrants deported by the United States to Panama, beg the Government that beyond placing the flag at half-mast for the death of Pope Francis this week, it should pay tribute to him by giving “a dignified life” to the migrants, as the Supreme Pontiff preached.
“Never forget your human dignity,” because “you are not a discard,” the pope wrote last year in a message addressed to the thousands of migrants who had just crossed the dangerous Darién jungle, the natural border between Colombia and Panama, on their way to the United States.
Known by many as “the pope of migrants” for his defense of those who are forced to leave their land in search of better living conditions, he himself recalled then that he was “son of migrants who went out in search of a better future,” and that “there were times when they were left with nothing, until they went hungry; with empty hands, but their hearts full of hope.”
Therefore, members of Catholic organizations that are part of the CLAMOR Network (the Latin American and Caribbean Ecclesiastical Network for Migration, Displacement, Refuge and Trafficking in Persons), and who work with dozens of migrants in the Panamanian capital deported by the United States, remember the teachings of Pope Francis.
Elías Cornejo, coordinator of social promotion and attention to the migrant population of the Catholic organization Fe y Alegría, which is part of the Clamor Network, explained to EFE in a migrant shelter that we must “look for alternatives for these people, they cannot be kept in conditions that are not favorable or dignified.”
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“In the context of the death of Pope Francis, who was incisive in insisting on humane treatment of migrants, I believe that this country that declares itself mostly Catholic (…) beyond the flag at half-mast, I would also ask the national government to dignify that memory of Pope Francis by giving an answer to many people who (…) have the right to have a dignified life,” Cornejo stressed.
“Give them that, try to find a human, Christian, evangelical answer,” he insisted.
The pilgrimage of this group of migrants through Panama began in mid-February, when a total of 299 arrived on three planes from the United States within the framework of an agreement that turned the Central American nation into a “joup” country for their repatriation.
Coming from extracontinental nations such as China, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Iran, Russia, Pakistan or Nepal, 188 returned to their countries “voluntarily”, according to the latest official information available, and 111 refused to do so, many of them fearing for their lives.
The entire group was first housed in a central hotel in the Panamanian capital, and those who refused to be repatriated to their countries were transferred to a shelter more than 200 kilometers away, near the Darién jungle.
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Then, after the decision last March by the Government of Panama to grant them a temporary humanitarian permit for 30 days, extendable up to 90, to find a way out of their situation, they took them back to the capital, although now without any type of logistical support, so the CLAMOR Network occupied that vacuum by first hosting the migrants in a humble hotel in the city, to transfer them days later to one of its shelters.
According to Cornejo, who underlines the support they receive in the shelter of “non-believing people, believing people, Muslim people, people of other religions too,” of the 69 migrants who moved there – families with children continue to stay in a hotel – 47 remain, since they “make their own decisions and move” by their own decision to other places.
“We don’t know where, we have an idea, but we don’t want to keep them or force them to anything, because they are free, they are not people who are imprisoned (…) We don’t want to pressure them, we don’t want to pressure the Government, but we do want to tell them again, ‘please, let’s find a way out of this’. An exit that has to be worthy for the State and for them, for migrants,” he remarked.
At least, he says, from the Foreign Ministry they have guaranteed that they will not deport anyone by force if the new 60-day period ends, an extension that ends in June and that, according to official data shared with EFE, at least 80 migrants have requested.
Two mothers from Asian countries who requested with their children the extension of the “temporary resident permit for humanitarian reasons”, as indicated in the document to which EFE had access, and who asked for anonymity, insisted that returning to their country is not an option, since if they return their “lives are in danger”.
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Housed in a humble hotel in the center of the Panamanian capital, on a floor where behind each door there is a family of different nationality, they explain to EFE through a translation application part of their journey to the United States, crossing several countries of America with their minor children, and then their sudden expulsion without knowing the destination, some handcuffed hand and foot.
“When they put me on the plane I felt suffocated. His hands and feet were cold. My heart was beating fast, I had high blood pressure. I told the military,” recalls one of them. There were men and women handcuffed, the children were terrified. They are adults, but children are not, “how can they treat them as criminals?”
Now, they say, they are “afraid” that the day will come when the deadline they were given to stay in Panama will expire. “When this document ends, I don’t know exactly what will happen to us if the United States doesn’t get us out of here.”
“We want to ask Donald Trump to return us to the United States, please,” they begged.
