Uncertainty is exacerbated on the northern border of Mexico as one week has been completed by the tariffs of the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, which unsettles, in particular, Ciudad Juárez, the epicenter of the Mexican maquila.

Data from the Association of Maquiladoras and Exporters of Ciudad Juárez (AMAC) show that about 70% of local exports go to the US market, which makes the city, bordering the US El Paso, Texas, especially vulnerable to trade restrictions.

In addition, Juárez hosts more than 300 maquiladoras, which employ about 300,000 people to produce everything from medical devices to auto parts.

Therefore, “the border would be the most affected” with the 25% tariffs that Trump announced last week, “with the loss of jobs, probably with factory closures, probably with high inflationary costs,” said Martha Bárcena, former ambassador of Mexico to the United States (2018-2021).

“So the main stakeholders are the entire border strip in which there is not this trade war, but on the contrary that there is cooperation, as the president (Claudia Sheinbaum) has said. Without a doubt, it is a difficult scenario that has been seen today,” he said in an interview.

Advertisement

20250301_vacunacion_vph-728x90

20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

20231124_etesal_728x90_1

20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90

domfuturo_netview-728x90

20240604_dom_728x90

CEL

Threat of tariffs: risks on both sides of the Mexico-US border.

Trump shook the region’s economy by announcing on Monday of last week that one of his first executive orders will be to impose tariffs of 25% on “all products” of Mexico and Canada, until the “invasion” of illegal migrants and drugs, in particular fentanyl, is “stopped.

The president of Mexico trusted last Friday that there will be no tariffs after talking on the phone with Trump, while the Mexican government argues that the United States would lose 400,000 jobs and suffer from inflation, such as an additional 3,000 dollars per van, for example.

Economist Alejandro Sandoval Murillo, president of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) in Juárez, told EFE that “tariffs are a tax that is placed to import, affecting the price of the product and making it less competitive in the face of existing alternatives.”

“The question of imposing tariffs on Mexico is whether (in the United States) they have alternatives to Mexican production, which is obviously not China, because China is the main problem. In that sense, if there is not, the American consumer will have to absorb that tariff and the damage is for them,” he warned.

Impact on small entrepreneurs and consumers

Although the most immediate impact is felt in large industries, small entrepreneurs also face challenges.

Advertisement

20250301_vacunacion_vph-728x90

20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

20231124_etesal_728x90_1

20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90

domfuturo_netview-728x90

20240604_dom_728x90

CEL

“Chihuahua is fundamental in those border states because, besides, Texas is our first trading partner. With them we trade more than 216 billion dollars a year. So I think we should seek that renewed dialogue between the governor of Texas (Greg Abbott) and the governor of Chihuahua (María Eugenia Campos),” Bárcena said.

For workers, uncertainty is also palpable in the face of possible low wages and challenging working conditions.

“The fact that consumers stop spending so much will cause company closures. That is the type of consequences that can begin to occur if, and only if, things evolve negatively, tariffs, reactions, reprisals, etc., towards a negative direction,” Sandoval Murillo warned.

In the face of the adverse scenario, local and federal authorities have tried to mitigate the effects of tariffs through tax incentives and support programs for affected companies.

But many entrepreneurs consider these measures to be insufficient in the face of the impact of US trade policies.

Advertisement

20250301_vacunacion_vph-728x90

20241211_mh_noexigencia_dui_728x90

20231124_etesal_728x90_1

20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90

domfuturo_netview-728x90

20240604_dom_728x90

CEL

“Because neither government can afford that luxury (of tariffs) and emphatically the Mexican government cannot under any reason. But the Mexican government I don’t mean (only) the federal one. This is a joint work between the subnational, state and municipal, along with the federal,” the economist concluded.